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NERA
ECONOMICS.EXPERTS.EXPERIENCE.
TheEconomicImpactofEach
Additional100MHzofMid-bandSpectrumforMobile
PreparedforCTIA
22January2025
ProjectTeam
Dr.HectorLopezJulienMartin
Contents
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandSpectrumforMobile
?NERA
Contents
ExecutiveSummary i
1.TheimportanceofthewirelessindustrytotheAmericaneconomy 1
2.Theuniqueroleoflicensedmid-bandspectrum 5
3.Theeconomicimpactofallocatingmid-bandspectrumtomobile 8
3.1.ContinuedimprovementstomobileservicetomillionsofAmericans 9
3.2.ImprovingbroadbandwithFWA 12
3.3.Supportingindustriesthatrelyonmobileconnectivity 17
3.4.Supportingindustriesthatservethewirelessindustry 24
4.AllocatingadditionalspectrumtoMobilevsWi-Fi 28
5.Conclusion 32
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandExecutiveSummary
SpectrumforMobile
?NERAi
ExecutiveSummary
ThewirelessindustryhasbecomeacornerstoneoftheAmericaneconomy,influencingnearlyevery
aspectofdailylifeandbusinessoperations.Astechnologycontinuestoadvance,thedemandfor
wirelesscommunicationcontinuestosurge,withAmericansconsuminganastounding100billion
gigabytesofdatainthepastyearalone.Thisgrowingrelianceonwirelessnetworksunderscorestheirroleascriticalinfrastructure,essentialforfacilitatingeconomictransactions,maintainingpersonal
connections,andmaintainingnationalsecurity.
Theindustry'ssignificantcontributionstoeconomicoutputandjobcreationfurtherhighlightits
importance.Wirelessenablesvastswathesofeconomicactivity,bothdirectlythroughinvestmentsincommunicationinfrastructureandindirectlybyenablingnewservicesandimprovingworker
productivity.Overthepastdecade,wirelesshascontributedover$5trillionofGDPand3millionjobstotheU.S.economy.
Approximately1.1GHzoflicensedspectrumbelow6GHzhassupportedthiseconomicgrowthandemployment.However,thewirelessindustryisrapidlyapproachingaspectrumdeficitthatwillresultinnetworkcongestion,therebyhinderingthecontinuedgrowthfueledbythewirelessindustry.
Projectionsindicatethatwirelessoperatorswillneedatleast400MHzofadditionalspectrumby2027tomeettheneedsoftheU.S.economy,adeficitthatwillcontinuetogrowtoover1400MHzby2032.
AdditionalwirelessspectrumisfundamentaltosomanyaspectsoftheU.S.economy.Inparticular,thisstudyfocusesontheeconomicactivityandconsumerbenefitsgeneratedby:
?continuedimprovementstomobileservicetomillionsofAmericans;
?improvedfixedbroadbandcoverageandpenetrationviafixedwirelessaccess(FWA);
?supportforindustriesthatrelyonmobileconnectivity,suchasvideostreamingandcutting-edgeVR/AR;and
?supportforindustriesthatservethewirelessindustry,suchasconstructionandelectronicmaintenance.
Allthiseconomicactivityandwirelessindustryinvestmentenabledbyadditionallicensedspectrum
willcontributesignificantlytotheAmericaneconomy.Weestimatethateachadditional100MHzof
mid-bandspectrumtomobilewillgenerate$264billionofGDP,about1.5millionnewjobs,andabout$388billioninconsumersurplus.Theimpactof400MHzofmid-bandspectrumwouldbe$1.1trillionofGDP,6.18millionnewjobs,andabout$1.5trillioninconsumersurplus.Beneficialeffectswould
continuetoaccumulatebeyond400MHz,andweestimatethatby2028even400MHzofnew5Gspectrumwillnotbeenoughtokeepupwithconsumerdemand.
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandExecutiveSummary
SpectrumforMobile
?NERAii
Table1:Summaryoftheeconomicimpactofallocatingeachadditional100MHzofmid-bandspectrumtomobile
GDP($B)
Employment(M)
Consumer
Surplus($B)
ContinuedimprovementstomobileservicetomillionsofAmericans
385
ImprovingbroadbandwithFWA
40
0.30
3
Supportingindustriesthatrelyonmobileconnectivity
188
0.93
Supportingindustriesthatservethewirelessindustry
36
0.32
Total
264
1.55
388
Note:Effectofeach100MHzupto400MHz
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandTheimportanceofthewirelessindustrytotheAmericaneconomy
SpectrumforMobile
?NERA1
1.TheimportanceofthewirelessindustrytotheAmerican
economy
ThewirelessindustryisanintegralpartoftheU.S.economy,withwirelesscommunicationsdeeply
integratedintohowweliveandwork.Americansconsumed100billionGBsofdatalastyear,anddatatrafficcontinuestogrow.
1
Fromenablingeconomictransactionstoconnectingfamiliesanddefendingthenation,wirelessnetworksarenotjustaconvenience,butcriticalinfrastructure.Byprovidingfast,
efficientcommunication,thewirelessindustryenablesvastswathsofeconomicactivity.
Thecorewirelessindustry,whichincludesmobileandwholesalenetworkoperators,contributes
significantlytotheAmericaneconomy.
Figure1
showstheconsistentinvestmentswirelessprovidersmakeintheU.S.’scommunicationsinfrastructure.Sincethelaunchofthefirstcommercialcellular
networks,wirelessoperatorshaveinvestedover$700billionincapitalexpenditurestobuildand
deploynetworksthroughoutthenation.
2
In2023alone,thewirelessindustryinvested$30billion;andthisdecade,theindustryhasbeenthesecond-largestsourceofdirectinvestmentintheUnited
States.
3
Thesesignificantcapitalinvestmentsininfrastructurehaveallowedwirelessprovidersto
expandnetworkcoverage,improveservicequality,andintroduceadvancedtechnologiessuchas5G,allofwhichhavetranslatedintosubstantialeconomicoutput.Overthelastdecade,thecorewirelessindustrygenerated$270billioningrossoutputand$133billioninGDPannually.
4
Figure1:CumulativewirelessindustrycapitalexpenditureintheUnitedStates,2011-2024
Source:CTIAAnnualWirelessIndustrySurveys
1TimothyTardiff,“WirelessInvestmentandEconomicBenefits,”AACG(Apr.2024),availableat
/news/wireless-investment-and-economic-benefits
2Ibid.
3Ibid.
4CompassLexecon,2022,TheImportanceofLicensedSpectrumandWirelessTelecommunicationstotheAmericanEconomy,availableat:
/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Compass-Lexecon-Licensed-Spectrum
-
Report.pdf
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandTheimportanceofthewirelessindustrytotheAmericaneconomy
SpectrumforMobile
?NERA2
BeyonditsdirecteconomiccontributiontooutputandGDP,thewirelessindustryalsogenerates
significantindirectbenefitsthroughitsinfrastructuredeploymentandwidersupplychain,asit
purchasesgoodsandserviceslikenetworkequipmentandsoftwarefromotherindustries.Andasthewirelessindustry’sworkersspendtheirincomes,theygenerateadditionalinducedeconomiceffects,
multiplyingtheindustry’simpactacrosstheeconomy.Onceindirectandinducedeffectsaretakenintoaccount,thecorewirelessindustryisestimatedtohavedriven$650billioningrossoutputand$376
billioninGDPayearoverthelastdecade.
5
Figure2
showsthattheGDPcontributionofthecorewirelessindustryhasbeensteadilygrowingatacompoundannualgrowthrateofabout5%.Byanyaccount,thewirelessindustryhasbeenacriticaldriveroftheAmericaneconomy.
Figure2:GDPcontributionofthecorewirelessindustryintheUnitedStates,2011-2020
Source:AdaptedfromCompassLexeconReport
Note:ThecorewirelessindustryincludesnetworkoperatorsandMVNOsanddoesnotincludeotherdownstreamorupstreamindustries.
Thewirelessindustry’simpactacrosstheeconomyextendsfurtherstill.Asageneral-purpose
technology,wirelesscommunicationnetworksfuelthebroadereconomybyenablinginnovationandeconomicactivityinother,downstreamindustriesthatrelyandbuildupontheservicestheyprovide.Forexample,arecentstudybyAccentureestimatesthat5Gnetworkswillcontributeanadditional
$159billiontotheAmericanmanufacturingindustry’sGDPovera5-yearperiod.
6
CompassLexecon,meanwhile,findthatin2020alonethewirelessindustrybroadlycontributed$825billioninGDP;
includingtheeffectsofthecoremobileindustryandthebroadmobileecosystem–whichincludessocialnetworkingsites,mobilegaming,smartphoneapps,searchenginesanddigitaladvertising.
7
Throughnetworkexpansionandnewservices,mostnotablymobileFixedWirelessAccess(FWA),thewirelessindustryalsoexpandsbroadbandconnectivityinunder-servedareas,createsnewcompetition
5Ibid.
6Accenture,availableat
/content/dam/accenture/final/a-com-migration/pdf/pdf-
146/accenture-5g-wp-us.pdf
7CompassLexecon,2022
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandTheimportanceofthewirelessindustrytotheAmericaneconomy
SpectrumforMobile
?NERA3
towiredbroadband,andpromotesinclusiveaccesstotheeconomy.FWAhasbeenpivotalinclosingthedigitaldivideandbringingAmericansonline.In2022,90%ofnewhomebroadbandconnectionswere5GFWA,andmanyoftheseconnectionswereinareasthatareunderservedbyfixednetworks
suchascable.
8
Numerousstudieshaveestablishedtheeconomicbenefitsassociatedwithincreasingbroadbandpenetration.Forexample,TheWorldBankestimatesthatindevelopedeconomies,a10-percentagepointincreaseinbroadbandpenetrationboostsGDPgrowthby1.2%.
9
Otherstudieshavefoundeffectsofsimilarmagnitudesfordevelopedeconomies,withconcomitantbenefitsonwages
andemployment.
Byemployingworkersandenablingupanddownstreameconomicactivity,thewirelessindustryis
alsoasignificantdriverofemploymentintheUnitedStates.Directly,wirelessprovidersenablealargenumberofhigh-qualityjobs,employingengineers,technicians,customerservicerepresentativesandadministrativestafftoruntheiroperations.Theongoingexpansionof5Gnetworksisexpectedto
continuetocreatejobswellintothedecade.Indirectly,thewirelessindustryalsosupportsjobs
upstream,asitfuelsdemandforgoodsandservicesinothersectorslikemanufacturingandsoftwaredevelopment.Overthelastdecade,thecorewirelessindustryisestimatedtohaveenablednearly2millionjobsperyear.
10
Inthefirsthalfofthisdecade,meanwhile,5Gisprojectedtocreateor
transformupto16millionjobs.
11
Importantly,thewirelessindustryalsoplaysacrucialroleinclosingthedigitaldivide.Studiesinthe
U.S.havefoundthatimprovingthequalityofbroadbandhasadisproportionatelypositiveimpactonreducingunemploymentinruralareas.AccordingtoonestudybyLoboetal.(2020),unemploymentratesareabout0.26percentagepointslowerincountieswithaccesstohighqualitybroadbandthanincountieswithlowerqualityservices.
12
Thishighlightsthevitalrolethatthewirelessindustryplaysinlevellingtheplayingfieldandpromotingeconomicopportunityandinclusiveaccesstotheeconomy.
Inadditiontoitsdirectcontributiontotheeconomy,thewirelessindustryalsogeneratessubstantialconsumerwelfarebyconnectingAmericansandofferingever-improvingservicesatlowercosts.
Today,Americanspay$0.006perMBofdata.
13
Thisrepresentsa93%decreasefromadecadeago.
14
Atthesametime,theservicesofferedtoconsumersarehugelyimproved.Averagemobilebroadband
8CTIA,2024,CTIAResponsetoFCCCommunicationsMarketReport2024,availableat:
/wp-
content/uploads/2024/06/240606-FINAL-CTIA-Comments-for-2024-Communications-Marketplace-Report.pdf
9
/curated/zh/178701467988875888/pdf/102955-WP-Box394845B-PUBLIC-WDR16-BP-
Exploring-the-Relationship-between-Broadband-and-Economic-Growth-Minges.pdf
10CTIA,2024,AnnualSurveyHighlights,availableat:
/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/2024-Annual-
Survey-Highlights.pdf
11Accenture,2021,TheImpactof5GontheUnitedStatesEconomy,availableat:
/content/dam/accenture/final/a-com-migration/pdf/pdf-146/accenture-5g-wp-us.pdf
12Lobo,AlamandWhitacre,2020,Broadbandspeedandunemploymentrates:Dataandmeasurementissues,availableat:
/science/article/pii/S0308596118303823
13Cable.co.uk,2024,Thecostof1GBofmobiledatain237countries,availableat:
https://www.cable.co.uk/mobiles/worldwide-data-pricing/
14Nielsen,2011,AverageU.S.SmartphoneDataUsageUp89%asCostperMBGoesDown46%,availableat:
/insights/2011/average-u-s-smartphone-data-usage-up-89-as-cost-per-mb-goes-down-46/
?NERA4
speedsintheU.S.arenowover100Mbps–athirty-foldincreaserelativetotheNorthAmerican
averageof3Mbpsatthestartofthedecade.
15
Andthesebenefitsarewidespreadtoo:some95%ofU.S.adultssaytheyusetheinternetand15%accesstheinternetsolelyviatheirsmartphone.
16
In2015,the645MHzofspectrumlicensedforwirelessbroadbandnetworkswasestimatedtogenerate
between$5trillionand$10trillioninsavingsforconsumers.
17
Giventheimprovementsinservice
qualityanddeclinesinprices,savingsshouldbehighertoday.Again,thisunderscoresthecriticalrolethatthewirelessindustryplaysinsupportingAmerica’ssocietyanditseconomy.
15Cisco,2011,CiscoGlobalCloudIndex:ForecastandMethodology,2010–2015,availableat:
/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Cloud_Index_White_Paper.pdf
16PewResearch,2024,Internet,BroadbandFactSheet,availableat:
/internet/fact-
sheet/internet-broadband/
17TheBrattleGroup,2015,MobileBroadbandSpectrum:AVitalResourcefortheU.S.Economy,availableat:
/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/7801_mobile_broadband_spectrum_-
_a_valuable_resource_for_the_american_economy_bazelon_mchenry_051115.pdf
Theuniqueroleoflicensedmid-bandspectrum
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandSpectrumforMobile
?NERA5
2.Theuniqueroleoflicensedmid-bandspectrum
Radiofrequencyspectrumhasbeendescribedasoneofthe“Nation’smostimportantnational
resources”,owingtoitsrolesupportingthewirelessindustry.
18
Thelargesumsinvestedbywireless
operatorsonacquiringspectrumlicensesdemonstratestheirvitalimportancetotheirnetworks.
Figure
3
showsthecumulativerevenuesraisedfortheTreasurybywirelessoperatorsfromspectrumlicensesacquiredinFCCauctionssince2014.
Figure3:CumulativerevenuesraisedfortheTreasuryinlicensedspectrumbywirelessoperatorssince1994
19
3.7GHz
2.5GHz
3.45GHz
$233$233$233
H-Block
$54
$210
28GHz
24GHz
600MHz
AWS-3
3.5GHzmmWave
$129
$114$114$117
$95$95
20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Source:FCC
Differentfrequencieswithintheusablerangeofwirelessspectrumhavedifferentcharacteristicsandusecases:
?Low-bandfrequenciesbelow1GHzareidealforprovidingwide-areacoverageowingtotheirlong-rangepropagation,andalsopenetratingdeepindoors,buttheyareinlimitedsupplysocannotsupportsignificantcapacity;
?Lowermid-bandspectrumliesbetween1.0and3.0GHz.ThissetoffrequenciescomprisescoremobilefrequencieslikethePCSandAWSbands,whichhavebeenanintegralpartof
18
/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/11/13/memorandum-on-modernizing-united
-states-spectrum-policy-and-establishing-a-national-spectrum-strategy/
19FCC,2022,FiscalYear2023BudgetEstimatestoCongress,availableat:
/public/attachments/DOC-
381693A1.pdf.
Valuesfor2023and2024arethesameas2022astherehavenotbeenanyauctionsinthoseyears.
?NERA6
wirelessoperators’networksforalongtime.Thesebandsoffersuperiorcapacitytolow-bandfrequencies;
?Mid-bandspectrum,whichcomprisesfrequenciesbetween3.0and8.5GHz,holdsauniquepositioninwirelessproviders'spectrumportfolios,offeringacombinationofhighbandwidthforcapacityandgoodpropagation;and
?High-bandspectrumabove10GHzoffersexceptionallylargecapacity,butsignalsonlytravelforshortdistances,makingitbestsuitedforuseindenseurbanareasandvenueslike
stadiums.
TheC-Band,withfrequenciesaround3500MHz,hasemergedasthekey5Gbandworldwide.TheoutsizedshareofU.Snetworktrafficnowcarriedoverthisspectrumevidencesitsimportance.For
instance,Verizon,whichinvestedheavilyintoacquiringC-Bandlicenses,reportsthathalfofits
networktrafficisnowcarriedbyC-Bandspectrum,anditexpectsthissharewillgrowfurther.
20
Mid-bandspectrum’scriticalimportanceisalsoreflectedinitswide-spreaddeployment.Ericssonestimatesthat85%ofthepopulationinNorthAmericaiscoveredbymid-bandspectrum–only5%belowthe
reportedcoverageoflow-bandspectrum.
21
Tomaximizetheeconomicbenefitsthatflowfromthishighcapacityandspeed,itisessentialthat
sufficientspectrumisavailablesothatwirelessnetworkcapacitycankeepupwiththegrowing
demandfordataandprovidefornewinnovativeservices.Currently,380MHzofmid-bandislicensedformobileintheU.S.
22
Whilethisbandwidthmaycurrentlybesufficienttomeetdatademand,recentstudiesestimatethattheU.S.willneedbetween400MHzand2GHzofadditionalspectrumto
supportfuturetrafficgrowth.Forexample,BrattleestimatesthattheU.S.willneedanadditional400MHzby2027and1.4GHzby2032.
23
Similarly,theGSMAestimatesthatdenselypopulatedAmericancities,suchasNewYork,willrequirebetween1and2GHzofadditionalmid-bandspectrumbythe
endofthedecade.
24
Releasingadditionalmid-bandspectrumsuitabletopowermobileconnectivityiscrucialiftheU.S.istoretainitsstatusasthegloballeaderinwirelessconnectivity.Yet,theU.S.isatriskoffallingbehind,asothercountriescontinuetoawardspectrumformobile.China,forexample,hasalreadyallocated
20VerizonCommunicationsInc,2024,Q22024EarningsCall,availableat:
/about/sites/default/files/2024-07/2Q24_Transcript_VZ_072224_0.pdf
21Ericsson,2023,5GNetworkCoverageOutlook,availableat:
/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-
report/dataforecasts/network-
coverage#:~:text=North%20American%20service%20providers%20have,at%20the%20end%20of%202023.
Ericssondoesprovideadefinitionformid-bandinthisdocument
22FCC,2022,2022CommunicationsMarketplaceReport,availableat:
/public/attachments/FCC-22-
103A1.pdf
23Brattle2023,Howmuchlicensedspectrumisneededtomeetfuturedemandfornetworkcapacity?
24Coleago,2021,Estimatingthemid-bandspectrumneedsinthe2025-2030timeframe,availableat:
/connectivity-for-good/spectrum/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Estimating-Mid-Band-Spectrum-
Needs.pdf
?NERA7
700MHzofspectruminthe6GHzbandtomeetthedemandformobiledata.
25
Asaresult,Chinanowleadsthewayintermsofspectrumallocationsformobile,andby2027,isexpectedtohavereleased
upto1560MHzofexclusive-use,high-powermid-bandspectrumtocommercialwirelessoperators.
26
Meanwhile,theU.S.isexpectedtolagfouroftheG7membercountriesby2027ifnoadditional
mobilemid-bandspectrumisreleased.
Figure4:Mid-bandspectrumallocatedtomobileindifferentcountriesby2027
1,180MHz
deficitvsChina
800
600
450
1,560
326
390
390
380
300
ChinaJapanS.KoreaCanadaUKFranceUSItalyGermany
Source:AdaptedfromAnalysysMason,2022,Comparisonoftotalmobilespectrumindifferentmarkets.
Notes:Wehaveremovedanyspectrumthatisnotavailableonanexclusiveuse,full-powerbasis.
25CTIA,2023,ChinaCommitsto5GMid-BandSpectrumwith6GHzAllocation:U.S.NeedsClearResponse,availableat:
/news/china-commits-to-5g-mid-band-spectrum-with-6-ghz-allocation-u-s-needs-clear-
response#:~:text=The%206%20GHz%20band%20China,5G%20technology%20in%20the%20band
26AnalysysMason,2022,Comparisonoftotalmobilespectrumindifferentmarkets,availableat:
/wp-
content/uploads/2022/09/Comparison-of-total-mobile-spectrum-28-09-22.pdf
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandTheeconomicimpactofallocatingmid-bandspectrumtomobile
SpectrumforMobile
?NERA8
3.Theeconomicimpactofallocatingmid-bandspectrumtomobile
Allocatingadditionalmid-bandspectrumtomobile–intheformoffull-powerflexible-uselicenses–willcreatevaluethroughouttheeconomy.Althoughouranalysismaynotcaptureallofthebenefits
overtime,inthispaperwefocusontheimpactonmobileconsumers,FWAconsumers,industriesthatrelyonmobileconnectivity,andindustriesthatsupportthewirelessindustry:
?ContinuedimprovementstomobileservicetomillionsofAmericans.
?FWAconsumerswillbenefitfromadditionalcoverage,increasedpenetration,higherspeeds,higheradditionaldataconsumption,andlowerprices.
?Industriesthatrelyonmobileconnectivity,suchasvideostreaming,mobilegames,and
cutting-edgevirtualrealityandAI,willenjoyamorerobustplatformtodelivertheirservices.
?Industriesthatsupportthewirelessindustrywillbenefitfromtheadditionalcapitalexpenditure(capex)requiredtodeploythespectrumandtheadditionaloperationalexpense(opex)
requiredtomaintainthenetwork.
Wemeasuretheeconomicimpactofallocatingeachadditional100MHztomobilebyestimatingitsimpactonthreemetrics:grossdomesticproduct(GDP),employment,andconsumersurplus.GDPisameasureofvalueaddedtotheeconomy,thatis,thevalueofthegrossoutputofanindustryminus
thevalueoftheintermediateinputsrequiredtoproducetheoutput.TheadditionalGDPproducedbythespectrumallocationisameasureofthevalueoftheadditionalgoodsandservicesthatcanbe
consumedbyfinaldemand.Employmentrepresentsthenumberofadditionalone-yearjobs.
Consumersurplusisameasureofconsumerbenefitandisthedifferencebetweenwhatconsumerswouldbewillingtopayandwhattheyactuallypay.
Forallmetrics,weestimatetheimpactofallocatingmid-bandspectrumbycomparingasituationwithadditionalspectrumagainstacounterfactualinwhichthespectrumisnotallocated.
Table2
showsthemetricsestimatedforeachchannelaffectedbythespectrumallocationanddeployment.
TheEconomicImpactofEachAdditional100MHzofMid-bandTheeconomicimpactofallocatingmid-bandspectrumtomobile
SpectrumforMobile
?NERA9
Table2:Thesourcesoftheeconomicvalueofallocatingmid-bandspectrumtomobile
ChannelGDPEmploymentConsumerSurplus
Bettermobileserviceatnoadditionalcost
*
ImprovingbroadbandwithFWA
*
*
*
Supportingindustries
thatrelyonmobile
*
*
connectivity
Supportingindustries
thatservethewireless
*
*
industry
Weestimatetheeffectofeachadditional100MHzbyfirstestimatingtheimpactof400MHzandthendividingbyfour.Therefore,throughoutthepaper,wereportthemarginalimpactofadding400MHzofspectrumandtheaverageeffectof100MHz(upto400MHz).Conceptually,wewouldexpectthe
first100MHztohavealargereffectthanthelast100MHz,butwedonotestimatetheimpactof100MHzblocksindividually.However,thesumofthefirstfour100MHzblockswouldequaltheeffects
reportedinth
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