2025年二手電動汽車：供應(yīng)與轉(zhuǎn)售價值研究報告-2025-02-后市場

ResearchIntelligence

UsedElectricVehicles:

SupplyandResaleValue

January2025KrungsriResearch

Content

Executivesummary3

OverseassecondhandEVmarkets4

TheThaimarketforusedEVs8

ForecastsalesofusedBEVs,2025-202814

KrungsriResearchview:Determiningthe16

domesticresalevalueofsecondhandBEVs

References17

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Executivesummary

Marketsforusedelectricvehiclesaredevelopingrapidlyaroundtheworld,particularlyinChina,theUS,andEurope,withsalesgrowingbyover30%annually.Thisgrowthisfueledbygreenenergypoliciesinmanycountriesthatsubsidizepurchases,makingpricesmoreaccessible.However,thedepreciationofusedEVs,drivenbyrapidtechnologicaladvancementsandpricecompetitioninthenewEVmarket,isasignificantfactorinfluencingbuyerdecisions.InThailand,thegrowthofthenewelectricvehiclemarketunderEV3.0andEV3.5measureshasledtotheemergenceofusedEVsinthemarket.However,themarketremainssmallandprimarilyfocusedonpremiumsegments.TheresalevalueofusedEVsinThailanddeclinesfasterthantheglobalaverageduetothemarket'stransitionalphaseandintensepricecompetitioninthenewcarmarket,drivenbyongoingadvancementsinbatterytechnology.DataanalyzedinthispaperalsoshowthatUSandEuropeanEVsaremoretypicallylocatedatthepremiumendofthemarket,andsothesehaveahigherresalevaluethansmallermoremass-marketChinesemodels,whilewithinthedomesticmarket,pricesareheavilyinfluencedbymileage,age,typeandmanufacturer.RegistrationsofusedEVsareexpectedtogrowbyanaverageof825vehiclesannuallyover2025-2027,accountingfor0.8%ofnewEVregistrations.ThemajorityofusedEVsenteringthemarketwillbe4-5yearsold,mostofwhichwillbeEVsoriginallysoldthroughtheEV3.0schemeover2022and2023.

SupawatChoksawatpaisan

Analyst

supawat.choksawatpaisan@+6622964755

3

UsedElectricVehicles

OverseassecondhandEVmarkets

Overthelastfewyears,globalautomarketshavebeendisruptedbythesharpuptickininterestinelectricvehiclesasconsumershavebothbeenattractedtothisnewtechnologyandtakenonboarddeepening

concernswithsustainabilityandtheenvironment.However,thismarketisstilldevelopingandtherecentsurgeinsalesofnewEVsisinturngeneratingasecondarymarketforusedvehicles.Thisisthuspromptingbothconsumersandbusinessesinrelatedpartsoftheindustrytoask‘HowfastwillEVresalevalues

depreciate?’and‘WhatwillthefuturesupplyofsecondhandEVslooklike?’Theanswerstothese

questionswillhelptoinfluencepurchasingdecisionsforbothnewandusedEVs,insurancepremiums,andloanapprovalsforusedEVs,aswellascapitalmanagementinthebusinesssectorforinvestmentinthe

growingusedelectricvehiclemarket.

ThispaperaimstoshedlightonpossibleanswerstothesequestionsbyexaminingmarketsforusedEVsoverseas,examiningthefactorsthatdeterminepriceswithintheThaisecondhandEVmarket,and

forecastingtheoutlookofthesecond-handelectriccarmarket.

▲ThedevelopmentofsecondhandEVmarketsoverseas

The2015ParisAgreement,whichwassignedbypartiestotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,setsaformaltargetoflimitingincreasesinglobaltemperaturesacrossthe21stcenturytonomorethan2degreesCelsiusrelativetopre-industriallevels.Followingthis,countrieshavesettheir

ownplanstoreducegreenhousegasemissions,aimingfornetzeroCO2emissionsinthefuture.OneofthekeyenergypoliciesisthetransitiontogreenenergyinthetransportationsectorthroughtheuseofElectricVehicles(EVs),particularlyBatteryElectricVehicles(BEVs).Asaresultofthis,globalregistrationsofEVs

havesurgedinrecentyears,andin2023,thesejumpedanother35.0%to14millionvehicles.These

trendlinesareexpectedtoextendintothefuture,andsoina2024paper,theIEAstatedthatguidedbythetwinenginesoffavorablegovernmentpolicyandongoingtechnologicalprogress,by2030,40%ofallvehiclesales(or45millionvehicles)areexpectedtobechargeableEVs1/,risingto50%(or65million

vehicles)by2035.

ThisrapidgrowthinnewEVsaleshasledtoanincreasedsupplyandpopularityofthesecond-handEV

market.Naturally,thishasbeenmostpronouncedincountriesthathavethemostdevelopedmarketsfornewEVs,i.e.,China,theUS,andtheEUR-6countriesofFrance,Germany,Italy,Spain,theNetherlands,

andtheUnitedKingdom.Thus,asof2024,some800,000secondhandEVswereonthemarketinChina(up40.0%YoY),whileintheUSandtheEUR-6,therespectivefiguresstoodat400,000(+43.0%)and450,000

vehicles(+28.0%)(IEA,2024).FutureMarketInsights(2023)expectsthattheglobalmarketforusedEVswillgrowby8.4%CAGRover2023to2033,reachingatotalvalueofsomeUSD40.08billionbytheendofthisperiod.Themostsignificantfactorssupportinggrowthwillincludethefollowing.

●Lowerprices:TheirlowercostsmakeusedEVsamoreattractiveoptionforbuyerswithless

purchasingpowerandthoselookingtotestthewaterwhiletheindustryisstillinaperiodofflux.Forexample,intheEuropeanmarket,usedEVssoldover2017-2022thatwerearoundayearoldwerepricedata-35%discountrelativetonewvehicles(TransportandEnvironment,2023).

1/ThiscoversbatteryEVs(BEVs)andplug-inhybrids(PHEVs).

4

UsedElectricVehicles

●Costofownership:BuyingausedEVmayentailaloweroverallcostofownership.Inparticular,

secondhandEVsthatare5-7yearsoldarearound2-3timescheapertorunthantheaveragecost(forbothEVsandICEautos)ofsimilarlyagedvehicles,andaccordingtoConsumerReports,2020,costs

forfuelandrepairsandservicingarerespectively50.0%and60.0%lowerforEVsrelativetotheaverage.

●Governmentincentives:GovernmentsinsomecountrieshaveattemptedtostimulatemarketsforusedEVs.Forexample,in2023,theUSgovernmentprovidedsubsidiestobuyersofusedEVswortharoundUSD4,000eachwhenmakingapurchaseofavehiclewithavaluelessthanUSD25,000,

thoughtoqualifyforpayments,buyershadtohaveanannualincomeoflessthanUSD75,000(NewYorkTimes,2023).

●Improveddrivingexperience:EVsoftenprovideabetterdrivingexperiencethanequivalentinternalcombustionenginevehiclesthankstotheirquickeracceleration,betterhandling,quieteroperation,androllingsoftwareupdatesthatcontinueevenoncethesehaveenteredthesecondhandmarket.Inaddition,manufacturersarecontinuingtomakeprogresswithbatterytechnologyandsonewmodelstypicallyhaveanever-greaterrangepercharge(IEA,2024,andJapanTimes,2023).

●Globalmegatrendsconnectedtotheenvironment:Sinceelectricvehiclesusebatterypower,whichdoesnotinvolvefuelcombustion,theydonotemitexhaustorgreenhousegases,makingthemnon-pollutingduringdriving.(EPPO,2021andElectromaps,2024).

Thankstotheseadvantages,interestinusedEVsiscontinuingtorise,thoughinmarketsoverseas,demandhascomeinparticularfrombuyersinterestedintryingoutanEV,thosewhohavepreviouslyrentedone

butwhodonotwishtomakeafullcommitmenttobuyinganewvehicle,andridesharingdrivers2/(BBC,23February,2024,andWorldResourcesInstitute,2019).

▲FactorsinfluencingpricesforusedEVsinoverseasmarkets

AlthoughthesupplyofusedEVsisexpandingsteadilyroundtheworld,worriesoverhowfastpriceswill

depreciatehaveaheavyinfluenceonconsumerpurchasingdecisions,andthisisthengeneratingknock-oneffectsacrosstheindustryvaluechainforplayersincludingEVmanufacturers,leasingandfinance

companies,andinsurers.Indeed,becausethemarketisstillinitsinfancy,pricesforsecondhandBEVshaveshownasignificantdegreeofvolatilityworldwideoverthepast3years.In2022,previoussoftnessin

secondhandprices,chipshortagesthatthenheldupproductionofnewmodels,andimprovementsinautotechnologyboosteddemandforusedBEVs(IEA,2024),butwithdemandrising,pricesbouncedback.Thus,forBEVsagedmorethan36monthsold,Europeanresalepriceswerearound55.0%ofthatpaidforanewmodel,upfromanaverageof40.0%in2017andaround25.0%higherthanthepriceschargedforan

equivalentICE-poweredsecondhandvehicle(datacorrectasofJune2023,source:CNBC,2024).

However,fromthesecondhalfof2023onwards,overseasresalepricesforusedBEVshavesoftened

again,andsoasofMay2024,theseweredownbybetween-30%and-39%.EVsthereforelostground

relativetosecondhandICEvehicles,forwhichpricesslidbybetween-3.0%and-7.0%(CNBC,20243/).Thisturnaroundwasaresultof:(i)thereleaseofnewmodelsthathadagreaterrangepercharge;(ii)increasedworriesoverthelifespanofEVbatteries;(iii)theemergenceofaggressivepricewarsbetweenplayers

releasingnewmodelstothemarket;and(iv)insomeareas,growthinthenumberofchargingstationsthatwasoutofbalancewiththeriseinthenumberofEVsontheroad(DigitalTrends,24June,2024).

2/Forexample,thenumberofdriversonUberusingEVsdoubledoverthepreviousyear,risingtoaround126,000individualspermonth(BBC,23February2024).

3/DatafromresearchbyiSeeCarsthatlookedat2.2millionsecondhandvehiclesagedbetween1and5yearsold.

5

UsedElectricVehicles

Giventherelativeyouthofthemarketanditshistoryofpricevolatility,itremainsdifficulttoassessthe

valueofparticularusedBEVs.Thisuncertaintyisthenamplifiedbyalackofdata,andbecausethey

accountfor30-50%ofthecostofanEV,theabsenceofsolidinformationontherateatwhichEVbatteriesdegradeisespeciallyimportant.Nevertheless,byreferencingpreviousresearchandanalyzingabroad

dataset,itispossibletoidentifythekeyfactorsthatinfluencepricesforsecondhandEVsinoverseasmarkets.Thesearedescribedbelow.

●Ageandmileage:Theseprovideasolidproxyforassessingthewearandtearthatavehiclehas

endured,andsoastheserise,theassociatedcostsforservicingandrepairswilllikewiseescalate,

thusundercuttingresalevalue(Podpoint,2024).ForBEVs,depreciationistypicallyfront-loadedandsoasmileageincreasesortheyearofproductionrecedes,therateatwhichthevehicle’svalue

decreaseswillinfactslow,asreflectedintheuseofreducingbalancedepreciationaccounting

techniques4/(Figure1),thoughofthetwo,BEVresalevaluefallsfasterwithagethanwithmileage.RelativetosimilarlyagedsecondhandICE-poweredvehicles,BEVsagedlessthanayearoldwill

depreciatemoregraduallysincethesestillemployup-to-datetechnology,butbeyondthelimitof1year,therapidpaceofinnovationwithintheindustrymeansthatthevehicle’scoretechnology

becomesincreasinglyoutdatedandsofromthispointonwards,BEVsdepreciatefasterthantheirICEequivalents.Inaddition,asageincreases,therewillalsobeafeedbackeffectfromworriesover

depreciationitself(Transport&Environment,2023).

Figure1

TheRelationshipbetweenResaleValueandtheAgeofEVsandICECars,CategorizedbyProductionYear

BEV

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.8

ResaleValue(%)

ResaleValue(%)

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

122436

12

48

Age(months)ofthevehicleatresale

20162017201820192020●2021

ICE

243648

Age(months)ofthevehicleatresale

201620172018201920202021

Source:Transport&Environment(2023)

●Segment:UsedEVsinthepremiumsegment(e.g.,sportsmodelsandluxurysedans)typically

experiencemorerapiddepreciationthanotherpartsofthemarketduetothegreatercostof

servicingandrepairsthese(USNews,2020andcarVertical,2023).Bycontrast,electricSUVsgenerallyhaveahigherresalevaluethanotherEVs,especiallythosemorethan12monthsoldsincedemand

fortheseisrisingsteadilyaroundtheworld(Transport&Environment,2023).

●Brand:Becauseleadingorparticularlywell-regardedEVbrandsaregenerallyviewedasbeing

equippedwithbettertechnology,benefitingfromregularsoftwareupdates,andhavinghigher

qualityandlonger-lastingbatteries,theseareusuallyindemandandhaveahigherresalevalue

(JapanTimes,December2023).Forexample,onaverage5-year-oldTeslaModel3andChevroletBoltEVsseepricedeclinesofjust-21.5%and-27.0%respectively(CarnexCanada,13March2024).

4/Pricedeclinesaremostpronouncedduringtheinitialphase,buttherateofdeclinethenslowsuntilitapproachestheminimumresalevalue.

6

UsedElectricVehicles

●Yearofmanufacture:Typically,newerEVsemployimprovedtechnology,especiallywithregardto

theirbatterymanagementsystemsandsonewmodelshavealongerrangethanoldervehicles.Thus,asof2023,electricpassengervehiclesandSUVshadanaveragerangeof380km/charge,upfrom

just150-270km/chargein2015.Thisrepresentsagainof7.7%CAGR(IEA,2024)andsodemandfornewerBEVmodelsiscorrespondinglygreater,withconsequentimpactsonresaleprices.

●Color:DemandforICE-poweredvehiclesandBEVsthatareinstandardcolors(e.g.,black,silverandgray)isgreaterthanforthoseinothercolorsandsopricesarecorrespondinglyhigher(Minilist,A

GuidetoElectricCarDepreciation).However,researchbyiSeeCarscarriedoutin20235/showsthatontheiSeeCarsplatform,thesituationisreversedandthatpricesforvehiclesinnon-standardcolors(e.g.,yellow,orangeandbeige)arehighersinceforthese,demandisstrongerthantheonlylimitedsupply6/.

5/Basedonpricesfor1.3millionusedvehiclesaged3yearsoldormorelistedoniSeeCars.

6/Onaverage,pricesforyellowvehiclesseetheirresalevaluedeclineby-13.5%after3years,significantlylessthantheaveragefallof-22.5%.Assuch,theaveragepriceforyellowautoswasaroundUSD3,000higherthanforthoseinothercolors.

7

UsedElectricVehicles

TheThaimarketforusedEVs

▲TheoverallstateofthedomesticEVmarket

ThemarketfornewBEVs

RegistrationsofnewBEVssurgedthrough2022and2023thankstotherolloutoftheEV3.0measures.

Growthwasparticularlystrongin2023,whenregistrationsjumped690.0%to75,715vehicles(Figure2).Overthefirst9monthsof2024,registrationsexpandedbyanother5.4%YoYasthemarkettransitionedfromtheEV3.0schemetoitssuccessor,theEV3.5program.Anadditional52,702BEVsthuscameontoThairoadsintheperiod,andtheserepresented12.3%ofallnewpassengervehicleregistrationsmadeintheperiod.Giventhis,totalregistrationsofBEVsfromthestartof2018throughtotheendofSeptember2024totaled137,421vehicles,or3.3%ofallnewpassengervehicles.Since2022,ChineseBEVshavealsotakenadominantpositionwithinthemarket.ThesearetypicallypricedlessthanTHB2millionandare

eligibleforgovernmentEVsubsidies,andsothesenowaccountformorethan60%ofannualBEVsalesinthecountry,andthissegmentisnowstronglyrepresentativeofthemarketoverall.TheThaimarketis

thereforeoverwhelminglycomposedofmodelsthatarefromChina(79.4%ofregistrationsmadeover2018-2023),pricedbelowTHB2million(83.9%ofthemarket),andhavearangeof300-500km/charge(76.0%)(Figure3).Thismarksasharpturnaroundforthemarketsincepriortotheintroductionof

governmentEVsubsidiesandpromotions,thedomesticsupplyofBEVswasoverwhelminglyofEuropean,AmericanandJapanesemodels.

Figure2

NewlyRegisteredPassengerBEVs

Units

Units

%YoY

%YoY

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

75,715

50,00952,702

1,268

1,943

9,584

650

57

9M239M24

201820192020202120222023

1200%

800%

400%

0%

Source:DLT,KrungsriResearch

Figure3

ShareofCumulativeRegisteredPassengerBEV(Averagefor2018-2023)

EU9.4%

SouthKorea0.1%

10U%▲By

CountryofOrigin

China79.4%

Above5mnbaht1.8%

Lessthan0.5

mnbaht

2-5mnbaht14.3%

1.0%

ByPrice

0.5-1mnbaht56.4%

1-2mnbaht26.5%

Longerthan500km200-300kmpercharge

8.6%

percharge14.8%

By

300-400km

percharge

33.2%

Distance

400-500km

perCharge

percharge

42.8%

Source:DLT,KrungsriResearch

8

UsedElectricVehicles

TheimpressiveratesofgrowthseenintheBEVmarketsince2022havebeentheresultofvarious

tailwinds.

●TheEV3.0(2022-2023)andEV3.5(2024-2025)measuresprovidedgovernmentfinancialsupporttobuyersofBEVsworthrespectivelyTHB150,000andTHB100,000pervehicle.

●Consumerchoicehasbeenwidenedbytheentryofnewmanufacturerstothemarketandthe

developmentofanever-widerrangeofmodels.DatafromtheElectricVehicleAssociationof

Thailand(EVAT)showsthatasofSeptember2024,56BEVmodelswereavailableforpurchasein

Thailand.Thesecamefrom25marques,werepricedbetweenTHB0.33millionandTHB31.8million,andhadarangeofbetween120and702km/charge.

●EVsrepresentincreasingvalueformoneyas,ontheonehand,technologicalprogressishelpingtosteadilyextendvehicles’rangepercharge,whileontheother,thesesameprocessesarehelpingtobringdownproductioncosts.SalesofbudgetBEVsthatcouldcoveralongerdistanceperchargethusincreasedin2023.TheseincludedtheNETAV,whichoffersarangeof302km/chargeatapriceof

THB549,000,oradistanceof550.8kmperTHB1million.12,777ofthesewereregisteredinthe

year,or16.9%ofallnewBEVpassengervehicleregistrations.Similarly,theORAGoodCathasan

averagepriceofTHB959,000andarangeof500km/charge,or521.4kmperTHB1million,andthismodelaccountedforanother8.9%ofall2023BEVpassengervehicleregistrations(or6,712units).

ThemarketforsecondhandBEVs

GrowthinsalesofnewBEVshasopenedupsupplytothesecondhandmarket,butwiththegovernmentsubsidizingpurchasesofnewEVsandasteadystreamofnewBEVmodelsenteringthemarket,salesofsecondhandBEVshaveremainedweak.Assuch,overthefirst9monthsof2024,just40salesof

secondhandBEVswereregistered(Figure4),oranunderwhelming0.8%ofallregistrationsofnewEV

passengervehicles.Bycontrast,salesofallsecondhandpassengervehiclesaccountedfor4.1%ofthetotalmarketforthese.

Figure4

UsedBEVRegistrations

Units

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

UsedBEVRegistrations

40

Proportionofsecond-handBEVregistrationstototalEVregistrations(RHS)

17

7

683

20202021202220239M239M24

%

0.10%

0.05%

0.00%

Source:DLT,KrungsriResearch

Analysisofthe214usedBEVssoldthroughtheOne2carwebsitebetween1Januaryand8August,2024,

showsthatwithregardtoboththeinitiallistpriceandthenationalityofthemarque,thesewereconcentratedatthepremiumendofthemarket.Detailsofthisanalysisfollows(Figure5):

9

UsedElectricVehicles

●Yearofmanufacture:55.6%ofthevehiclesweremanufacturedin2022and2023,andwerethusjust

1-2yearsold.Thismirrorstheoveralltrendinsalesofnewvehicles,withatotalof60.1%ofallBEVsregisteredinThailandalsohavingbeenproducedinthesetwoyears.

●Listprice:58.3%oftheusedBEVssoldthroughOne2carhadanoriginallistpriceofatleastTHB2million7/,leavingjust41.7%withapricebelowthiskeycut-offpoint8/.ThisdifferssharplyfromthemarketfornewBEVs,wheresome80.0%ofnewBEVssoldover2022and2023werepricedbelowTHB2million.

●Segment:Withinthesampledata,themostimportantvehicletypewasSUVs(42.1%ofthetotal),followedbysportsmodels(28.7%),passengervehicles(25.5%),andvans(3.7%).

●Countryoforigin:ThemajorityofsecondhandBEVswereGerman(44.9%)andChinese(31.0%).ThisrepresentsamarkeddivergencefromthemarketfornewBEVs,wheresince2022,over80%ofsaleshavebeenofChinesemarques.

●Distancepercharge:Thevastmajorityofsaleswereofvehicleswitharangeof401-600km/charge

(47.7%)and201-400km/charge(37.5%).Thesemodelshadanaveragebatterycapacityof70.4kWh.

●Mileage:61.6%ofthevehiclesinthesampledatahadamileageoflessthan20,000km.Someoftheseweretestdrivevehicles.

●Resalevalue:Mostvehicleswereadvertisedwitharesalepricesetat60-80%oftheiroriginalretailprice.

●Color:Mostvehicleswereinthestandardcolorsofwhite(33.8%ofthetotal),black(19.4%),gray(19.0%)andblue(13.4%).

Figure5

CharacteristicsofUsedBEVListedforSaleonOne2car(duringJanuary-August2024)

2019,6.5%

2018,0.5%

2020,3.7%

2024,13.0%

2021,Production20.8%

Year

2022,20.4%

2023,35.2%

<200

km/charge,

>600

km/charge,

16.2%

60k-80kkm,6.5%

40k-60kkm,10.2%

4.6%

201-400

km/charge,37.5%

Range

per

Charge

401-600

km/charge,41.7%

>10mnbaht,3.2%

8-10mn

baht,2.3%

6-8mnbaht,22.2%

RetailPrice

<2mnbaht,41.7%

4-6mnbaht,13.4%

2-4mnbaht,17.1%

80k-100kkm,100k-120kkm,5.1%3.7%

20k-40kkm,13.0%

<20kkm,61.6%

Mileage

Van,3.70%

Sedan,25.46%

Segment

Sport/LuxurySedan,28.70%

SUV,42.13%

80-99%,19.4%

40-60%,22.2%

60-80%,47.7%

20-40%,10.6%

ResaleValue

Korea,1.4%

US,3.2%Sweden,

5.6%

UK,6.0%

Japan,7.9%

CountryofOrigin

Germany,44.9%

China,31.0%

LightBlue,

13.4%

Red,3.7%

Green,3.2%

Blue,2.8%

Silver,1.4%

Grey,19.0%

Yellow,1.4%Pink,0.9%

Colour

Orange,0.9%

Black,19.4%

White,33.8%

Source:One2car,KrungsriResearch

7/Forthese,governmentsupportundertheEV3.0schemewaslimitedtocutstoexcisedutiesandimporttariffs.

8/GovernmentsupportundertheEV3.0schemeincludedsubsidiesworthuptoTHB150,000inadditiontocutstodutiesandtariffs.

10

UsedElectricVehicles

▲EstimatingdepreciationinBEVprices

Next,aneconometricmodel9/isusedtoanalyzetheimpactsofthesevariousfactors(i.e.,mileage,segment,countryoforigin,yearofmanufacture,andcolor)onratesofdepreciationinthedomesticmarketforusedBEVs.

●Initialdepreciation:Thisisalsocalledoff-the-lotdepreciationandreferstotheinstantdropinthe

resalevaluethatoccursassoonasavehicleissold.ThisisnotrelatedtoanyactualwearimposedontheBEVbutisaresultsolelyofthechangeintheownershipofthevehicleanditsconversionfromanewtoasecondhandproduct.IntheThaimarketforusedBEVs,thisaverages22.93%,soassoonasaBEVleavestheshowroom,itsmaximumresalevalueisonaverageat77.07%ofitsnewcarprice

(originallistprice).

●Mileage:ThaiBEVslosebetween-5.6%and-9.4%oftheirvalueforevery10,000kilometersthattheytravel.Thisisamorerapidrateofdepreciationthanistypicallyseenforsecondhandvehiclesgenerally,whichaverages-5.2%per10,000kilometers(Source:Econoautosale).Thisispartly

becausethemarketisyoungandevolving,althoughtherearealsomanyexternalfactorsinfluencingprices,includingearliergovernmentinterventionsinthemarketfornewBEVsthatallowed

consumerstobuynewmodelsatadiscount,improvementsinEVtechnologythatareextendingthe

rangeofbudgetmodels,andaggressivepricewarsthathavebrokenoutinEVmarkets.Theneteffectofthishasbeentodepresspricesinthesecondhandmarket10/,althoughresearchbyTransport&

Environment(2023)showsthatwhentheresalevaluedropsto30%oftheoriginallistprice,itbeginstostabilize.ThisindicatesthatusedBEVsinThailand,witheitheraresalevaluereducedto30%oranaccumulatedmileageofabout150,000kilometers,willstarttomaintainastableresalevalueatthatrate.(Figure6).

Figure6

EstimatedResaleValueofUsedBEVbyMileage

%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

ooeeeeLowerBoundResaleValueooooooUpperBound

Source:One2car,KrungsriResearch

9/Thisusesbetaregressiontoanalyzetheeffectsofindependentvariablesonadependentvariablewitharesultofbetween0and1,orinthiscontext,thevalueoftheresalepricerelativetothelistprice,whichwouldthusrangebetween0and100%.

10/BecausethedomesticmarketforusedBEVsisstillinitsinfancy,dataisscarceanderratic,especiallyforvehiclesthathaveclockedupamileageinexcessof100,000kilometers.Thispaperthusdrawsonsimilarresearchcarriedoutinmarketsoverseasthathavelookedattheresalevalueofthesevehicles.

11

UsedElectricVehicles

●Countryoforigin: