新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施論文多邊貿(mào)易體制下新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對中.doc

新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施論文：多邊貿(mào)易體制下新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對中國外貿(mào)影響研究【中文摘要】1948年關(guān)稅及貿(mào)易總協(xié)定(GATT)的正式簽署標(biāo)志著多邊貿(mào)易體制的建立,在該體制下,成員國可以對各國(地區(qū))貿(mào)易政策進(jìn)行國際協(xié)調(diào)。其載體從關(guān)貿(mào)總協(xié)定發(fā)展到世界貿(mào)易組織(WTO),使得各國關(guān)稅大幅下降,大大加快了貿(mào)易自由化進(jìn)程。然而自由是相對的,各國為了保護(hù)本國產(chǎn)業(yè)利益,也從未停止過對貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的使用,且伴隨著自由化進(jìn)程不斷轉(zhuǎn)變著保護(hù)方式。由于多邊貿(mào)易體制下對關(guān)稅水平的約束,各國貿(mào)易保護(hù)紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向以非關(guān)稅的形式,如反傾銷、反補(bǔ)貼、綠色壁壘、技術(shù)壁壘等措施,這里把不同于關(guān)稅形式的保護(hù)措施稱為“新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施”。中國加入WTO后,對外貿(mào)易快速增長,長期的貿(mào)易順差使得各國紛紛針對中國出口產(chǎn)品采取新型保護(hù)措施。據(jù)WTO統(tǒng)計(jì),中國已成為各種新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的“最大受害國”。2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā),貿(mào)易保護(hù)再次盛行,我國的出口貿(mào)易受到重創(chuàng)。因此,研究新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施、分析其對中國外貿(mào)的影響對制定合理的貿(mào)易政策、改善我國出口現(xiàn)狀具有很大的理論指導(dǎo)及現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。木文即是在此背景下進(jìn)行研究,主要分三個部分進(jìn)行闡述：第一部分簡單介紹貿(mào)易保護(hù)理論及新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的形式及特征,尤其是金融危機(jī)背景下的新特征。第二部分則對貿(mào)易保護(hù)的形成機(jī)制及其經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行闡述,主要從供求和博弈角度分析了貿(mào)易保護(hù)產(chǎn)生機(jī)制,并通過大國條件下的一般均衡重點(diǎn)介紹對我國影響較大的反傾銷、技術(shù)壁壘、保障措施這三大措施的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng),得出這三種措施對出口國的損失都較大。第三部分引用大量數(shù)據(jù),重點(diǎn)介紹入世以來我國前三大主要貿(mào)易伙伴歐盟、美國、日本對我國實(shí)施的新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的情況,總結(jié)這些措施的國別分布及產(chǎn)品類別分布；在此基礎(chǔ)上使用引力模型對我國出口貿(mào)易的影響進(jìn)行定量說明：最后從制度、出口結(jié)構(gòu)以及市場開拓三方面提出中國應(yīng)對新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的對策和建議。本文在體系構(gòu)建及資料整理上較為完善,且使用模型進(jìn)行定量說明有一定的創(chuàng)新性：但本文還存在著不足,如模型并未跳出老框架,且受數(shù)據(jù)獲得限制并未從量上表示出具體影響程度,因此,就模型本身還有待進(jìn)一步完善。【英文摘要】It is the official sign of general agreement on tariffs and trade in 1948 that marks the establishment of the multilateral trading system (MTS). In this system, members can make international coordination of trade policies from different countries. Its carrier develops from GATT to WTO, which greatly declines the world tariff level and accelerates the process of trade liberalization. However, its far from real freedom. As to protect their own industrial interests, different countries adopt different trade protection measures. The forms of these measures often turn from tariff to non-tariff protection under the restraint of MTS, such as anti-dumping、countervailing、green barrier、technical barrier.Our foreign trade grows rapidly and makes long-term trade surplus after we become a member of WTO, which makes foreign countries adopt kinds of new protection measures. According to WTO, China has become the biggest victim of new trade protection measures. Chinas export trade had been greatly hit especially after prevailing protectionism caused by 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to make a research on the effects of new trade protection measures to our export trade.In this context, I make analysis of this topic from four angles. First, the paper introduces various theories of trade protection and its new forms and features, especially the features under financial crisis. Second, it describes the formation mechanism of trade protection and its economic effects. The formation mechanism is mainly from the perspective of supply and demand and game theory. The economic effects involve anti-dumping、technical barrier and safeguard measures which do great harm to our exports. Third, by using large amounts of data, the article mainly states the current situation of the measures which are adept by our top three trading partnersEuropean union, United states, Japan. It summarizes the country distribution and product category of measures. Then, the paper makes quantitative explanation by gravity model. Finally, it suggests three methods to deal with the new measures of trade protection from system, export structure and marketing.My paper has done a lot in system construction and material processing, and the using of gravity model is quite innovative. But its still not good enough, the model is based on old framework and cant figure up specific data of the effects to our export trade due to the data limitation. So, the model remains to be further improved.【關(guān)鍵詞】新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施 出口貿(mào)易 引力模型 多邊貿(mào)易體制【英文關(guān)鍵詞】New measures of trade protection Export trade Gravity model Multilateral trading system【目錄】多邊貿(mào)易體制下新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對中國外貿(mào)影響研究摘要6-7Abstract7第1章 緒論10-161.1 研究背景及意義10-111.2 國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)狀研究11-131.3 本文的研究思路與主要內(nèi)容13-141.4 本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)與不足14-16第2章 貿(mào)易保護(hù)理論及措施16-262.1 貿(mào)易保護(hù)理論16-192.2 多邊貿(mào)易體制下的新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施19-262.2.1 相關(guān)概念界定19-202.2.2 新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施簡介20-222.2.3 新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施發(fā)展趨勢22-232.2.4 金融危機(jī)下保護(hù)措施的新特征23-26第3章 新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析26-333.1 新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的形成機(jī)制26-283.1.1 經(jīng)濟(jì)供求分析26-273.1.2 博弈分析:”囚徒困境”27-283.2 各貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)28-333.2.1 反傾銷措施的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)29-303.2.2 技術(shù)性貿(mào)易壁壘的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)30-313.2.3 保障措施的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)31-33第4章 新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對中國外貿(mào)的影響33-524.1 現(xiàn)狀及原因分析33-434.1.1 主要貿(mào)易伙伴的貿(mào)易壁壘體系33-384.1.2 我國出口貿(mào)易遭遇新貿(mào)易保護(hù)現(xiàn)狀38-424.1.3 中國外貿(mào)頻繁遭遇貿(mào)易保護(hù)原因42-434.2 新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對外貿(mào)影響定量分析43-494.2.1 模型設(shè)定43-444.2.2 數(shù)據(jù)處理44-484.2.3 模型回歸及結(jié)果分析48-494.3 新貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施對出口的影響