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1、the effect of financial crisis to real estatethe sub-loan crisis is also called as the subprime mortgage crisis and translated as the subprime lending crisis. it refers to a financial storm that occurred in the united states due to the bankruptcy of the sub-mortgage agencies, the forced closing of t
2、he investment funds, and the severe turbulence of the stock market. it led to the crisis in lack of liquidity at the worlds major financial markets. the u.s. sub-loan crisis began to emerge from the spring of 2006. from august of 2007, it started to sweep through the united states, the european unio
3、n, japan, and other major financial markets in the world.sub-loan means subprime mortgage loan. “sub” means the poor side corresponding to “high” and “excellent”, while in the sub-loan crisis it refers to the low credit and low debt-repaying capacity. subprime mortgage loan is a high-risk and high-y
4、ield industry, which refers to the loans offered by a number of lending institutions to the borrowers with poor credit and low income. comparing to the traditional standard mortgage loans, the subprime mortgage loans demand low levels on the borrowers credit history and repaying ability, but its cor
5、responding lending rate is much higher than the normal mortgage loans. those who are refused on high-grade mortgage loans by the bank for their bad credit history or weak repaying ability may apply for the subprime mortgage loans to buy houses. when the house price is going up, the subprime mortgage
6、 loans business is booming. even if the borrowers cash flow can not repay the loan, they may obtain re-loans from the value-added real estate to fill the gap. however, when the house price maintains or goes down, there will be a funding gap and then the bad debts.the subprime mortgage loan is a kind
7、 of housing mortgages abroad, to supply loans to the people with less income or lower-level credit history. the reason for supplying loans to these people is that the lending institutions can receive a mortgage interest higher than the good credit mortgage. when the house prices rise, the loans will
8、 have no problems as a result of adequate value in pledge; but when the house prices fall, value in pledge is no longer sufficient, while the mortgager has less income, thus the loan contract may be breached and the house may be returned to the bank. it will cause the increase in the bad debts of th
9、e mortgager, the collapsed cases of the mortgage providers and the risks in the financial markets.the added value of real estate industry accounts for more than 5% of the gross domestic product (gdp) in our country. as a pillar industry, it has played an important role in the national economy.yu xiu
10、qin, the spokeswoman of beijing municipal bureau of statistics said on october 14, 2004, that beijings gdp in the first quarter increased 13% over the same period of the previous year. the released real estate investment report by the fixed assets investment division of beijing municipal development
11、 and reform commission on october 15 indicated that the investment growth rate in the first three quarters reduced to 20.3% from 40.6% in the first quarter, ranking in a more reasonable range. but the report also pointed out that the great dropping in the real estate investment leading indicators (l
12、and development, etc.)” undoubtedly affected the potential growth of investment in real estate. the delayed impact from macro-control measures shall be paid attentions to. this report obviously reminded that the development and investment in real estate may maintain the downward trend due to the imp
13、act of macro-control, and it may further have a certain impact on beijings economic growthwhat impact can macro-control bring on beijings gdp? ding xiangyang, director of beijing municipal development and reform commission, said when he reported to beijing peoples congress standing committee on the
14、implementation of national economic and social development plan during the first half year, that a series of land policies in beijing such as the moratorium on agricultural land requisition, the ceasing of agreed land transfer, and the clean-up of investment projects in development zones, as well as
15、 the macro-control, had probably effected an investment of about rmb 120 billion yuan, with about 2-3 percentage points on affecting the annual economic growth in the next few years. the report of the fixed assets investment division finally showed that from the investment in recent years, the propo
16、rtion of real estate investment had always been maintained at above 55%, which did not match the direction of industrial restructuring on developing high-tech industries and modern manufacturing sectors. in order to maintain the consecutive and stable economic growth of the city and optimize the ind
17、ustrial structure, it is necessary to intensify the investment structure adjustment and increase the proportion of industrial investment, especially under the circumstances that the potentials in the real estate industry are affectedwe can see such a logic relationship: the real estate investment ma
18、intains a high proportion in recent years, while the macro-control reduces the real estate investment growth rate, which will annually decrease several percentage points of beijings gdp in the next few years. real estate has an extraordinary impact on beijings economy. the proportion of real estate
19、investment is too large? according to the planning of national development and reform commission, beijing city has cleaned up the fixed assets projects in the city. from the information of beijing municipal development and reform commission, there are more than 6000 projects being cleaned up, in whi
20、ch more than 600 projects involved in violations. among them, there are 53 projects being stopped the construction or cancelled and 554 projects being suspended the construction for rectification, with a total investment amount of rmb 164 billion yuan, accounting for 1/5 of the total number in our c
21、ountry. from the project clean-up situation, there is still more than 50% of investment concentrated in the real estate field among all the citys investment projects being constructed or planned for construction. figures show that the real estate investment in beijing accounts for 56.5% of the total
22、 investment in the entire society, far exceeding the national average level of 18%. the report of the fixed assets investment division of beijing municipal development and reform commission suggests that the proportion of real estate investment is too large, and this does not match the direction of
23、industrial restructuring on developing high-tech industries and modern manufacturing sectors.however, ren zhiqiang, president of huayuan group who researches much on the economic indexes said, beijing originally has a lot of lands for use, but the capital has not implemented constructions for a long
24、 time, and now the construction develops after conquering great difficulties, a higher proportion of real estate investment is normal. professor ye jianping, head of the land management division of renmin university of china, considered that demands for housing and the supply in beijing in recent ye
25、ars had promoted the proportion growth of investment, although this proportion of 56.5% was much higher than the international average level. however, it is very difficult to evaluate whether it is right or not at special stages in a specific period. nevertheless, there must be problems if such prop
26、ortion maintains in a long period. someone in the fixed assets investment division of beijing municipal development and reform commission said that a higher proportion in real estate investment has certain rationality at the present stage on accelerating urban transformation, urbanization and econom
27、ic growth. and now all aspects of the real estate industry are still within the safety line in general. a large number of bubble phenomenon such as housing vacancy or price skyrocketing have not occurred. but he also pointed out at the same time that it was very easy to emerge bubbles as the real es
28、tate industry was greatly affected by the policy. therefore beijing, as a large-sized city, if the proportion of real estate investment is too large, the citys whole economy will accordingly become more vulnerable.who is the largest contributor to gdp? the official data from beijing municipal develo
29、pment and reform commission show that the direct pulling role of real estate on beijings gdp is between 5% and 10%. experts believe that the direct contribution of the real estate industry to gdp completely results from the demand growth in the real estate market. it is reported that the volume of d
30、emolition in beijing reduces at the annual rate of 20% for 5 consecutive years. there were about 100,000 removing households in beijing 5 years ago, but in 2004 there were only 20,000. in the past a considerable portion of the demand in beijing real estate market consists of urban renewal, infrastru
31、cture construction as well as a large number of demolitions invested by the government. now although the government demolitions decline a lot, the consumption amount has not reduced, thus the real estate market remains a strong demand. with this demand, the relatively high proportion of real estate
32、in gdp is quite normal, because beijings real estate is not for beijing city only, but for the whole country and even the world. in addition to the pulling role of the strong demands in real estate market on beijings gdp, it is well known that the real estate industry drives its upstream and downstr
33、eam industries. someone in beijing municipal development and reform commission disclosed: according to the sales estimation, the proportion of real estate and the relevant industries such as its driven raw materials and service industry is about 1:1.2. real estate investment can drive a dozen of or
34、a hundred of related industries. ren zhiqiang had his personal experience. he considered that from an investment view, the real estate industry could stimulate many affiliated industries, thus it had a great impact on the whole gdp. but he also said that the current method of calculating gdp was on
35、the basis of the net investment amount, excluding the consumption, whereas the related consumption of real estate such as second-hand housing transaction was a very important part of the real estate industry. therefore he thought that the statistical methods on gdp was not entirely correct, which co
36、uld not calculate accurately the specific contribution value of the real estate industry. what he implicated was that: the present statistics were incomplete, and the polling function of the real estate industry on gdp had been underestimatedmacro-control on the balance beam: more than one expert wa
37、rned that the long-term development of a city could not rely on continuous investment though real estate played an important role in driving the fixed assets investment and gdp. it should develop more industries. only the driving industries can bring sustainable development, no matter what it is the
38、 first, second or third industry. someone in the investment division of beijing municipal development and reform commission introduced that for the adjustment of investment structure, the municipal development and reform commission at present had established a long-term guideline aiming at reducing
39、the proportion of real estate in the fixed assets investment in beijing: to change the structure with so large real estate investment at present by increasing the investment on other industries and fields, rather than limiting the current real estate projects, in order to increase the growth points
40、of the city and avoid large effects on the whole economy resulted from the changing real estate industry. at the same time, we shall strengthen market monitoring and analysis, guide the restructuring of real estate products, focus on developing the mid-priced residential houses, and expand the size
41、of second-hand housing market etc. but the government has the responsibility to control the real estate for avoiding major fluctuations. the staff in the investment division of the development and reform commission said that people in the real estate industry were more psychologically vulnerable to
42、the effects of the outside world. therefore the misconduct may result in insufficient investment in real estate, declining engineering volume, effecting the development of the relevant service and raw material industries, and finally directly or indirectly affecting the entire gdp growth. so the rea
43、l estate investment, no matter it is up or down, should be a smooth process. it shall follow the principle of ensuring a smooth and stable development in real estate, to prevent the sharp ups and downs.the information on our countrys real estate and construction of 2007 shows that there are 63,000 r
44、eal estate development enterprises in 2007, with a total employment of 1,720,000 people; the completed investment on real estate development is rmb 2.5289 trillion yuan, with an increase rate of 30. 2%. statistics show that the asset-liability ratio of chinas real estate development enterprise in 20
45、07 was 74.4%; the real estate development enterprises realized a total profit of rmb 290 billion yuan, with an increase rate of 48.4%. the released information also shows that chinas real estate industry in 2007 still has problems such as irrational housing supply structure, high housing prices and
46、so on. statistics show that in 2007 the affordable housing investment accounts for 4.6% in the commercial residential investment, reducing 0.5 percentage points; residential housing under 90 square meters only accounts for 23.3% in the commercial residential housing; the real estate sales areas redu
47、ced a lot at the end of the year.the real estate industry is the leading industry of chinas national economy, which ranks a decisive position in the modern social and economic life. after more than ten years of development, chinas real estate industry is in the transition period towards to a large-s
48、caled, branding and standardized operation. the growth means of the real estate industry is changing the focus on from speed and scale to benefit and market segmentation, and the relied aspects from the governments policy control to market regulation and corporate self-regulation. in the first half
49、of 2006, the rigid housing demand in beijing released a lot, and the supply in the commercial forward delivery housing market turned on a recovering trend. there were four features showed in beijings real estate market in 2006: the investment growth in real estate recovered and the residential inves
50、tment increased a lot; new construction area increased fast, but the completion area of residential buildings reduced; the sales in the housing market boomed, but the vacant space lessened; the residential price index continued to increase, but at a stable ratebeijings investment in real estate incr
51、eases rapidly. from january to june in 2006, the completed investment in real estate development in beijing was rmb 64.01 billion yuan, increasing 20.8% over the same period in the previous year, with an increased rate of 12.7 percentage points. from january to june in 2006, the completed land devel
52、opment area of the real estate development enterprises in beijing reached 1,964,000 square meters, increasing 130% over the same period in the previous year; the vacancy space decreased for the flourishing market demand and supply reduction. at the end of june in 2006, the vacancy space of commercia
53、l housing in beijing covered an area of 9,652,000 square meters, with 4,090,000 square meters less than that at the beginning of the year, with a decreasing rate of 29.8%. from january to june in 2006, the fund in place of beijings real estate development enterprises was rmb 126.52 billion yuan, inc
54、reasing 20.3% over the same period in the previous year, in which the financial loans was rmb 33.95 billion yuan, increasing 40.1% over the same period in the previous year. it accounted for 26.8% of the fund in place that year, raising 3.8 percentage points.since 2006, the housing sales price index
55、 in beijing city showed a slight upward trend. from january to june in 2006, the total price index of newly-built commercial houses accumulated at 107.7%, increasing 0.6 percentage points than that of the previous month, and increasing 1 percentage point than that at the same period of the previous
56、year; of which the residential price index accumulated at 108.5%, increasing 0.5 percentage points than that of the previous month, and increasing 1.3 percentage points than that at the same period of the previous year; the second-hand residential price index accumulated at 109.5%, almost the same a
57、s that of the previous month, and increasing 3 percentage points than that at the same period of the previous year. the price increasing rate of ordinary residential housing exceeded that of the high-grade residential houses. from january to june in 2006, the average residential price index in beiji
58、ngs newly-built residential houses accumulated at 110%, exceeding 4.2 percentage points than that of the high-grade residential houses.the competition in beijings real estate industry has become increasingly fierce and white-hot. as for the developers, suncos entry into beijing, the establishment of
59、 beijing capital development holding group, together with the macro-control policy of the past two years, the rising interest rates, 8.31 land revolution (the agreed land transfer was prohibited since august 31, 2004), the introductions of the states 8 articles and 6 measures on controlling the real estate market, the entry of overseas real estate funds, all of these made the competition war even more interesting. accompanied by the clank of horns, the developers are making every effort to win
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