政策法規(guī)對中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響

1、June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumRegulatory Issues andChinas Auto Market政策法規(guī)對中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響政策法規(guī)對中國汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響Wayne W.J. Xing Ph.DChina Business UpdateChina Automotive Review中國汽車要聞 邢文軍1June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents F

2、orumThe Auto Market Today中國的汽車市場中國的汽車市場Future Trend & Drivers未來市場的走向和影響因素未來市場的走向和影響因素Recent Policies & Regulations近期的相關(guān)政策和法規(guī)近期的相關(guān)政策和法規(guī)2June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumThe Auto Market Today中國的汽車市場中國的汽車市場3June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing a

3、nd the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumThe Rise of Per-Capita GDP人均人均GDP198519901995199820012002200320042005GDP (tril. yuan)0.91.865.757.79.6 10.24 11.6713.6518.23Population (bil.)1.061.141.211.251.2761.281.291.31.3Per-capita yuan8531,6344,8546,2777,517 8,187 9,014 10,50113,950Per-capita $10319757

4、4746909990 1,0901,2701,703Large Metropolis and Coastal Areas$3,000-$4,000 直轄市及沿海地區(qū)直轄市及沿海地區(qū)4June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAutomobile Output Automobile Output 汽車產(chǎn)量汽車產(chǎn)量 1992-2005 1992-200501,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,000

5、19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnitsCar*BusTruck*Total5June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumGrowth Rate of Automobile and Car Production 1993-2005汽車及轎車產(chǎn)量增幅汽車及轎車產(chǎn)量增幅(in million units) 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

6、 2002 2003 2004 2005Total 1.29 1.35 1.45 1.47 1.58 1.63 1.83 2.07 2.35 3.25 4.46 5.10 5.73% change 22.1 4.3 7.3 1.38 7.37 3.16 12.3 13.1 13.6 39.0 37.2 14.3 12.3Cars* 0.23 0.25 0.32 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.60 0.75 1.17 2.11 2.36 2.93% change 41.1 8.9 30.0 29.4 23.1 8.33 11.5 6.95 23.27 56.0 80.3 11.8

7、24.2* Includes sub-category cars and MPVs6June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAdding One Million Units A Year年增百萬輛年增百萬輛First Million: 1953-1992 - 40 yearSecond Million: 1993-2000 - 8 yearsThird Million: 2001-2002- 2 yearsFourth Million: 2003 - 1 yearFifth

8、 Million: 2004 1 yearsSixth Million: 2005 over 1 yearSeventh Million: 2006 1 year7June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumGDP and Output Growth Rates GDP和汽車產(chǎn)量增幅和汽車產(chǎn)量增幅-30-20-10010203040506019781980189219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004GDPOutput8June

9、 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumChinas auto market: myth and reality 中國的汽車市場的真實性中國的汽車市場的真實性9June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumFarm Truck Output 1992-2005 農(nóng)用車農(nóng)用車0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,00

10、0,0003,500,00019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnits3 wheeler4 wheelerTotal10June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMotorcycle Output 1992-2005 摩托車產(chǎn)量摩托車產(chǎn)量05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,0001992199319941995199619971998199920002

11、0012002200320042005YearUnitsUnits11June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMotor Vehicle Output 機動車產(chǎn)量機動車產(chǎn)量 (含農(nóng)用車含農(nóng)用車)(including farm trucks)02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnitsCarBusT

12、ruckTotal12June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumIntensifying Competition 競爭激烈競爭激烈633?13June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDF-Yueda-KiaFAW CarFAW-VWSGMSVWHainan-MazdaGEELYTianjin-FAW-XialiTianjin- FAW- ToyotaCha

13、ngan-SuzukiDongfeng-Peugeot-CitronCheryGuangzhou-HondaD-NissanBrilliance-JinbeiBJ-HyundaiChangan-FordNJ-FiatChanghe-SuzukiHafei AutoGuizhou-SkylarkSoutheastS-GM-WulingSichuan-Toyota3+? Guangzhou-ToyotaChangan-FordD-NissanGuangzhou-HyundaiGreat WallJianghuai6+314June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing

14、 and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum63 Multinationals are all in 跨國公司全部進入跨國公司全部進入Volkswagen: 大眾大眾 SAIC and FAW GM: 通用通用 SAIC-GM, Wuling, Dongyue, Jinbei Ford: 福特福特 Changan, Nanjing, JianglingDaimlerChrysler: 戴克戴克 BAIC, Southeast Toyota: 豐田豐田 FAW, GAICHonda: 本田本田 GAIC, Dongfeng Renault/Nissan:

15、 雷諾雷諾-日產(chǎn)日產(chǎn) Dongfeng BMW: 寶馬寶馬 Brilliance JinbeiPSA: 標(biāo)致雪鐵龍標(biāo)致雪鐵龍 Dongfeng ; Fiat: 菲亞特菲亞特 NanjingHyundai-Kia: 現(xiàn)代現(xiàn)代-起亞起亞 BAIC, Dongfeng, GAIC Suzuki: 鈴木鈴木 Changan, Changhe; Mitsubishi: 三菱三菱 Southeast Isuzu: 五十鈴五十鈴 Qingling; 15June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Fo

16、rum3？: FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC “三大？三大？”BAIC: 北汽北汽 DaimlerChrysler, Hyundai, MitsubishiGAIC: 廣汽廣汽 Honda, Toyota, Dongfeng-Nissan PassengerChangan Group: 長安長安 Ford, SuzukiHafei/Changhe: 哈飛哈飛/昌河昌河 Aviation Industry GroupJianghuai Auto Group 江淮江淮Nanjing: 南汽南汽 Fiat, MG RoverSoutheast (Fujian)：東南東南 Mitsubishi

17、, China MotorsBrilliance: 華晨華晨 BMW Qingling Motor Group：慶鈴慶鈴 Isuzu16June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum3？Domestic Investment 國內(nèi)投資國內(nèi)投資Chery: 奇瑞奇瑞 R&D Center, Engine Plant, Export/JV Geely: 吉利吉利 R&D Center, Engine plant, Export/JV BYD (Qinchuan): 比

18、亞迪比亞迪 HK$254 million/74% shares Great Wall: 長城 100,000 units car assembly plant Jianghuai: 江淮 light commercial, MPV, car Lifan: 力帆 1.6L car Zhongxing: 中興 SUVs and pickups Gonow Auto: 吉奧 SUVs and pickups Loncin: 隆鑫 300 million, bus/suv17June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006

19、 Presidents ForumReality and Definition 如何定義如何定義Sedan 轎車轎車Automobile 汽車汽車Motor vehicle 機動車機動車Consumers 消費者消費者Family car 家庭轎車家庭轎車Price: 價格價格 100,000, 80,000, 40,000, 30,000Sedan vs hatchback 三箱三箱, 兩箱兩箱 (Citron ZX, Xiali) 18June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Fo

20、rumSummary 結(jié)論結(jié)論: Eexisting and potential large market 現(xiàn)實和潛在大市場現(xiàn)實和潛在大市場 Institutional and commercial 公、商務(wù)車市場公、商務(wù)車市場 Consumer market: 消費者市場：摩托車、農(nóng)用車、微車消費者市場：摩托車、農(nóng)用車、微車 Motorcycles, farm vehicles, mini-vehicles (not 100%) Sedans 轎車轎車 Transition from a centralized to a market system計劃經(jīng)濟向市場經(jīng)濟過渡計劃經(jīng)濟向市場經(jīng)濟過渡

21、 19June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumFuture Trend and Drivers未來市場的走向和影響因素未來市場的走向和影響因素20June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumInteraction of Three Forces 三股力量的博弈三股力量的博弈Government, World Market, Domestic Market 政

22、府、國際和國內(nèi)市場政府、國際和國內(nèi)市場 Streamlining of Central Bureaucracies精簡政府機構(gòu)精簡政府機構(gòu) Protection of Private Property 公有制和私有制公有制和私有制 WTO Impact 世貿(mào)組織世貿(mào)組織 The Rise of a Consumer Market 消費者市場的興起消費者市場的興起 21June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDeclining Administrative Control行政

23、干預(yù)逐漸弱化行政干預(yù)逐漸弱化 Ministry of Machinery Industry 機械部機械部 State Administration of Machinery Industry 機械局機械局 China National Automotive Industry Corp. 中汽總中汽總 State Economic and Trade Commission 經(jīng)貿(mào)委經(jīng)貿(mào)委Federation of Machinery Industry 機械工業(yè)聯(lián)合會機械工業(yè)聯(lián)合會CAAM/SAE 中國汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會中國汽車工業(yè)協(xié)會/中國汽車工程學(xué)會中國汽車工程學(xué)會22June 26, 2006Glo

24、bal Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumEmphasis on the Rule of Law 法制增強法制增強Type/Product Approval 認(rèn)證認(rèn)證Safety: compulsory tests, frontal collision 安全碰撞法規(guī)安全碰撞法規(guī)Emission Control: Euro III & II 排放排放Consumption Tax 消費稅消費稅Consumer Protection: Recall 消費者保護消費者保護Fuel consumption

25、level:然油消耗限制然油消耗限制23June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAdministrative Control 行政干預(yù)依然存在行政干預(yù)依然存在Auto Industry Development Policy 產(chǎn)業(yè)政策產(chǎn)業(yè)政策（2004） Market entry 市場準(zhǔn)入市場準(zhǔn)入 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 股比限制股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 項目限制項目限制24Ju

26、ne 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDifferent departmental priorities (部門交叉管理）部門交叉管理） SDRC:發(fā)改委發(fā)改委 Circular (investment threshold) State Assets Commission 國資委國資委 Large State-owned companies MOFCOM:商務(wù)部商務(wù)部 Investment, Sales, Export Quality Inspection，Supervisi

27、on & Quarantine: 質(zhì)監(jiān)局質(zhì)監(jiān)局 Administration of Taxation: 稅務(wù)局稅務(wù)局 Taxation Industry and Commerce: 工商局工商局 Business License Public Security: 公安局公安局 Vehicle License & Registration Communications: 交通部交通部 Maintenance & Repair Ministry of Science &Technology: 科技部科技部25June 26, 2006Global Auto Manu

28、facturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMarket vs. Central Planning 市場和計劃經(jīng)濟市場和計劃經(jīng)濟State Council DRC 國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心國務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心 Government Should Not Interfere 政府不宜干預(yù)政府不宜干預(yù) Equal Access and Fair Competition 公平競爭公平競爭 26June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents For

29、umDriven by Market Forces 市場的作用越來越大市場的作用越來越大Automobile: means of production vs consumer good汽車：生產(chǎn)資料還是消費品汽車：生產(chǎn)資料還是消費品Public/Institutional to Private Ownership公有到私有公有到私有Economic Growth & Rising Living Standards經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和生活水平經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和生活水平27June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Pre

30、sidents Forum Overall Economic Growth 經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長 Average GDP growth 7-8% GDP增幅增幅 Active fiscal policy 積極的財政積極的財政 Average annual growth in output 10-15% 汽車年產(chǎn)量均增汽車年產(chǎn)量均增 15 左右左右28June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum International Players 跨國公司跨國公司Multinatio

31、nal Presence 跨國主機廠和供應(yīng)商跨國主機廠和供應(yīng)商Government Relations and Lobbying 政府公關(guān)政府公關(guān)Vehicles for Government Consumption 政府采購政府采購Emissions, Safety, Technology 安全、排放、技術(shù)安全、排放、技術(shù)29June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumWTO Accession 世貿(mào)組織世貿(mào)組織 Tariff down to 25%/10% in 2006

32、關(guān)稅減削減關(guān)稅減削減 Quota eliminated 配額許可證取消配額許可證取消 Localization requirement 取消國產(chǎn)化率取消國產(chǎn)化率 Global sourcing 全球采購全球采購 Equity investment limit 放寬投資額度限制放寬投資額度限制 Consumer expectations: Price reduction 降價降價 30June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumDomestic Market Forces 國內(nèi)市

33、場變化國內(nèi)市場變化Local Investment 地方政府投資地方政府投資Private Investment 民營投資民營投資 Chery, Geely, Brilliance, BYD, Lifan, GWMarket Entry Open, with restrictions 準(zhǔn)入并未封閉準(zhǔn)入并未封閉Merger & Acquisitions 兼并重組，借殼生產(chǎn)兼并重組，借殼生產(chǎn)Buying into the Big Three? 民營參股三大民營參股三大? 31June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of Chi

34、na2006 Presidents ForumCorporate Decision Making 企業(yè)面臨新決策企業(yè)面臨新決策Protective vs. Competitive Advantage 保護還是競爭優(yōu)勢保護還是競爭優(yōu)勢Advanced Management vs. Efficiency 先進管理和效率先進管理和效率 State-ownership & Labor Cost Advantage 國有和勞動力成本國有和勞動力成本Low-Cost Management 低成本管理低成本管理Product Development: Institutional/Consumer新產(chǎn)

35、品開發(fā)對象新產(chǎn)品開發(fā)對象 32June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMarket Share of Carmakers, 2004-2006 (%) 市場份額市場份額Make/Model 2001 20042005Jan-Mar. 06Shanghai-VW 31.9 15.8 9.9 9.8Shanghai-GM 7.7 9.910.4 9.3FAW-VW 16.5 13.4 9.6 8.8Beijing-Hyundai N/A 6.4 7.8 7.0Chery Aut

36、omobile 3.7 4.2 6.4 6.9 Geely 2.9 4.5 5.2 6.1Tianjin-FAW-Toyota N/A 3.4 4.7 6.0 Tianjin-FAW-Xiali 9.3 5.8 6.7 5.8Guangzhou-Honda 6.8 8.2 7.1 5.7Dongfeng-Nissan N/A 2.7 5.5 5.6Dongfeng-PSA 7.0 3.8 4.8 5.033June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents Forum The Road of E

37、lectronic Appliances and Motorcycles 家電和摩托車家電和摩托車Motorcycle Market shares:19972005 摩托車市場份額摩托車市場份額 SOEs + JVs （國有和合資企業(yè)）（國有和合資企業(yè)）: 90% 40% 34June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumRecent Policies & Regulations 近期的相關(guān)政策和法規(guī)近期的相關(guān)政策和法規(guī)35June 26, 2006Global Auto

38、 Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumAuto Industry Development Policy（2004）產(chǎn)業(yè)政策產(chǎn)業(yè)政策 50:50 Equity Share JV for OEMs 整車股比限制整車股比限制 Two JVs for the same type of vehicles 項目限制項目限制 JV initiated M&As 合資企業(yè)兼并重組國企合資企業(yè)兼并重組國企 Separation of production & Sales: Mazda 3生產(chǎn)和銷售分離生產(chǎn)和銷售分離 En

39、trance barrier 準(zhǔn)入準(zhǔn)入 Support of “l(fā)arge auto groups” 支持支持“大集團大集團”36June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumImport Tariff 進口關(guān)稅進口關(guān)稅Quota and license eliminated 許可和配額取消許可和配額取消Whole vehicles: 25% July 1, 2006 整車整車25Parts & components: 10% July 1, 2006 零部件零部件10I

40、mpact: high-end, luxury cars as imports 豪華車豪華車Targeting the newly rich 新富新富 Local production unlikely 不會地產(chǎn)不會地產(chǎn)37June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumCBU Characteristics 整車特征整車特征 (April 1, 2005) Import Administration of Automotive Parts and Components Havin

41、g Characteristics of CBUs 60% or higher in value: 25 tariff, July 1, 2006超過整車價值超過整車價值60，按整車征稅，按整車征稅 EU, US, Japan, Canada, Australia, Mexico: “Violation of WTO rules on localization” 違背違背WTO地產(chǎn)規(guī)則地產(chǎn)規(guī)則 China：”Counter import tariff evasion” “打擊逃避關(guān)稅打擊逃避關(guān)稅” Likely solution 解決辦法解決辦法38June 26, 2006Global Au

42、to Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumExterior ID Marks 汽車外部標(biāo)識汽車外部標(biāo)識Administrative Methods on Exterior ID Marks of Automobile Products, February 2006 今年二月實施今年二月實施Government: Made in China 政府規(guī)范市場政府規(guī)范市場Corporate: Sales 企業(yè)銷售企業(yè)銷售Consumer: Foreign vs. local brands 消費者心理消費者心理39June 26

43、, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumConsumption Tax, April 1, 2006 消費稅消費稅 (%)Sedan/MPV SUVEngine NewOldChange EngineNewOld Change1.0L 3 3 01.0L-=1.5L 3 5-21.0L-=1.5L 3 3 01.5L-=2.0L 5 5 01.5L-=2.0L 5 3 22.0L-=2.2L 9 5 42.0L-=2.2L 9 3 62.2L-=2.5L 9 8 12.2L-=2.5L

44、9 3 62.5L-=3.0L 12 8 42.5L-=3.0L12 5 73.0L-=4.0L 15 8 73.0L-=4.0L15 5104.0L 20 8124.0L20 515Impact: 影響影響40June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumFarm vehicles part of automobiles 農(nóng)用車變?yōu)槠嚨囊徊糠洲r(nóng)用車變?yōu)槠嚨囊徊糠諸he Notice on Standardizing the Administration of Three-W

45、heel Automobiles and Low-Speed Trucks, June 1, 2006 三輪汽車、低速卡車三輪汽車、低速卡車VIN：January 1, 2007 汽車識別代號汽車識別代號WMI: 世界制造識別世界制造識別a) minimum output 3,000/500 最低年產(chǎn)量最低年產(chǎn)量b) certification 生產(chǎn)許可生產(chǎn)許可Application deadline: December 31, 2006 申請截至申請截至41June 26, 2006Global Auto Manufacturing and the Role of China2006 Presidents ForumMotor Vehicle Output 機動車產(chǎn)量機動車產(chǎn)量 (含農(nóng)用車含農(nóng)用車)(including farm trucks)02,000,0004,000,0006,000,0008,000,00010,000,00019921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005YearUnitsCarBusTruckTotal42June 26, 20