水文預(yù)報(bào)課程設(shè)計(jì)

1、水文預(yù)報(bào)課程設(shè)計(jì) 姓 名： 學(xué) 號(hào)： 學(xué) 院：水利與環(huán)境學(xué)院 班 級(jí)：指導(dǎo)老師： 時(shí) 間：2013.1.23水文預(yù)報(bào)課程設(shè)計(jì)說(shuō)明書(shū)1、設(shè)計(jì)目的1、流域水文模型的用途：洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案是現(xiàn)代實(shí)時(shí)洪水預(yù)報(bào)調(diào)度系統(tǒng)的核心部分，是提高預(yù)報(bào)精度和增長(zhǎng)預(yù)見(jiàn)期的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)。對(duì)水資源可持續(xù)利用：流域水文模型是水資源評(píng)價(jià)、開(kāi)發(fā)、利用和管理的理論基礎(chǔ)。對(duì)水環(huán)境和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)保護(hù)：流域水文模型是構(gòu)建面污染模型和生態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)模型的主要平臺(tái)。流域水文模型還是分析研究氣候變化和人類(lèi)活動(dòng)對(duì)洪水、水資源和水環(huán)境影響的有效工具。本次課程設(shè)計(jì)的目的是通過(guò)一個(gè)具體的降雨徑流預(yù)報(bào)方案的制作，使學(xué)生了解生產(chǎn)單位對(duì)預(yù)報(bào)任務(wù)的要求。2、通過(guò)課程設(shè)計(jì)，要

2、求掌握如下內(nèi)容：1) 流域綜合退水曲線、地下水退水曲線的制作以及次洪分割方法；2) 熟悉降雨徑流相關(guān)圖編制的完整過(guò)程；3) 新安江兩水源模型結(jié)構(gòu)及產(chǎn)流參數(shù)率定方法；4) 流域經(jīng)驗(yàn)單位線的推求方法；5) 洪水預(yù)報(bào)方案精度評(píng)定方法；6) 利用預(yù)報(bào)方案進(jìn)行實(shí)行洪水預(yù)報(bào)方法；7) 利用馬斯京根分段連續(xù)演算法進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)河段洪水演進(jìn)預(yù)報(bào)。2、設(shè)計(jì)基本資料該流域集水面積1884.6km2，干流河長(zhǎng)約273km。流域氣候溫濕，年降雨量在1700毫左右。地下水位較高，且隨季節(jié)變幅小，因次，一般情況下，土壤含水量較大。根據(jù)流域自然地理?xiàng)l件情況和氣候條件，以及洪水流量過(guò)程線分析，可知流域產(chǎn)流規(guī)律符合濕潤(rùn)地區(qū)的蓄滿產(chǎn)流模

3、型特征。采用降雨徑流相關(guān)圖制作流域蓄滿產(chǎn)流方案，用二層蒸發(fā)模型計(jì)算蒸發(fā)，水源劃分考慮兩水源劃分。3、課程設(shè)計(jì)資料1. 一場(chǎng)歷史洪水的流量過(guò)程，相應(yīng)的各雨量站（3個(gè)雨量站）時(shí)段雨量與權(quán)重（時(shí)段長(zhǎng)為3h）2. 洪水的前期日降雨量，日最大蒸發(fā)量資料（歷史洪水與實(shí)時(shí)預(yù)報(bào)洪水）3. XX場(chǎng)洪水的退稅過(guò)程4. 部分場(chǎng)次洪水降雨、徑流特征值成果表5. 干流河段的馬斯京根參數(shù)及分段數(shù)（3段）4、產(chǎn)流計(jì)算4.1 面平均雨量計(jì)算4.11 計(jì)算方法泰森多邊形法(1)其中為i站的面積權(quán)重，為i站的實(shí)測(cè)降雨4.12 各測(cè)站基本資料如表1、表2所示表1 各測(cè)站降雨量 單位:mmA站降雨B站降雨C站降雨18.1818181

4、88.51063829812.9032258190.9090909142.5531914964.51612903168.181818278.72340426119.354838745.4545454521.2765957432.2580645236.3636363617.021276625.80645161表2 各測(cè)站權(quán)重A站權(quán)重B站權(quán)重C站權(quán)重0.220.470.314.13 計(jì)算步驟將表1、表2中數(shù)據(jù)代入公式(1)中并使其結(jié)果除以3即得面平均降雨量如表3所示表3 面平均雨量 單位:mm流域面雨量4.0020.0037.0010.008.00再由實(shí)測(cè)洪水過(guò)程可畫(huà)出流量過(guò)程線如圖1圖1 實(shí)測(cè)洪

5、水流量過(guò)程線4.2 次洪分割4.21 計(jì)算流域平均消退系數(shù)Cgg由最小二乘法公式 (2)算得Cg=0.837(從流量開(kāi)始消退時(shí)算起)同理可算得地下水消退系數(shù)Cgg=0.746(從退水開(kāi)始算起)4.22 劃分水源由地下水退水過(guò)程線不變的規(guī)律，結(jié)合實(shí)測(cè)洪水過(guò)程(無(wú)后續(xù)洪水)和實(shí)測(cè)洪水過(guò)程可畫(huà)出圖2圖2 分割復(fù)式洪水再由洪峰(如此題中的683.91)與Cg的乘積的遞推，算出一系列的Q值，用徑流深計(jì)算公式可累加出一系列的R值，即得蓄瀉關(guān)系曲線，如圖3圖3 蓄瀉關(guān)系曲線用圖3可查出此場(chǎng)洪水對(duì)應(yīng)的值，則由公式 (2)算得再算得 另附以下幾張圖表表4 地面與地下流量過(guò)程 單位:mmQQgQs1.75711.

6、757101.95184.23320.857217.35716.709410.6477117.00039.1856107.8146361.847311.6612350.1856620.159514.1379606.0216683.912416.6140667.2984666.279219.0902647.1887558.234321.5663536.6681430.399124.0425406.3565315.250426.5187288.7317235.767328.9948206.7724168.251531.4710136.7805112.756833.947178.809662.117

7、136.423325.693838.899438.89940圖5 流域平均退水曲線圖6 地下水退水曲線表5 蓄瀉關(guān)系曲線表 單位:m3/sQR0.000688910.000002360.000722620.000007210.000757980.000012290.000795080.000017620.000833990.000023210.00087480.000029070.000917620.000035220.000962520.000041680.001009630.00004844圖7 相鄰時(shí)段流量關(guān)系圖4.3 流域初始土壤蓄水量的計(jì)算4.31 前期影響雨量Pa的計(jì)算 (3) (

8、4)4.32 計(jì)算實(shí)例已知資料見(jiàn)表6表6 Pa基本數(shù)據(jù) 單位:mm日降雨量Pa蒸發(fā)能力WMPa,t+11.4609.78053.95525047.413185.946.848951.942.838140.738.259144.4 降雨徑流相關(guān)圖制作及誤差檢驗(yàn)4.41 計(jì)算原理：（1）流域蓄滿產(chǎn)流模型計(jì)算公式 (5)(6)（2）蒸發(fā)計(jì)算（兩層蒸發(fā)模式） (7)(8)表7 降雨徑流相關(guān)表 單位:mmW0010203038.2591440506063.17080P a010.163820.69567731.674741.1599843.2165655.50625868.87981773.342584

9、.11941106.400000-7.1E-15-7.1E-1500-7.1E-157.11E-1502.78750.012120.103810.20606710.322230.432390.4577020.62213490.8359370.9190621.1589142.7875100.158460.495780.8730911.303471.7136951.8082882.42648653.24322833.5664124.5281311015.750.398260.940891.5495262.246352.9136843.0680824.08308145.44648165.996761

10、7.70498715.75200.648621.349052.13641353.040643.9100634.1117975.4449117.2638028.01305210.482462021.5750.757641.517962.37338513.356974.3042244.5242755.98158077.98347738.81600811.6763521.575301.49582.590713.82905445.263536.6590536.9856889.180772212.3585313.812522030402.730814.259366.00164378.0433710.06

11、33510.5425213.861032023.13040504.392116.404898.723036711.485214.2934614.9761820.1387943033.1405052.54.879547.023189.499904412.46715.5139616.2622122.532.535.642.552.557.36255.916068.3277811.13416914.539718.1303819.0401427.362537.362540.462547.362557.3625606.529359.0949312.09388515.764819.7178620.7518

12、1304043.1506066.158.1081811.060314.55640918.958624.4091426.1536.1546.1549.2556.1566.15709.2097812.427916.28005121.271328.2591430405053.1607072.937510.113413.549817.70562723.286531.1966432.937542.937552.937556.037562.937572.937581.2512.998217.15122.42526931.2539.5091441.2551.2561.2564.3571.2581.25801

13、2.531116.564521.6330863038.2591440506063.170809016.652721.8387304048.2591450607073.1809010021.903230405058.2591460708083.190100110.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 68.259 70.000 80.000 90.000 93.100 100.000 110.000 120.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 78.259 80.000 90.000 100.000 103.100 110.000 12013

14、0.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 88.259 90.000 100.000 110.000 113.100 120.000 130.000 140.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 98.259 100.000 110.000 120.000 123.100 130.000 140.000 圖8 降雨徑流相關(guān)圖4.4.2 誤差檢驗(yàn)用其他場(chǎng)次PER關(guān)系查降雨徑流相關(guān)圖，校核是否合格并算出合格率與等級(jí)，見(jiàn)表8表8 徑流深校核 單位：mmPa有效降雨P(guān)E次洪徑流深演算徑流深許可誤差實(shí)際誤差合格否合格率等級(jí)15.245.710.3697

15、38246.45286893433.916869311否0.88甲級(jí)48.858.229.95190859275.9903817192.951908594是43.925.22.4062514166.1604104853-3.75415907否4681.546.9607386347.59.392147726-0.53926137是40.1113.371.1697806671.5591429514.23395613-0.3893623是45.36631.9997257731.36.3999451530.699725765是35.764.727.5650327120.701118335.513006

16、5426.863914379否1071.910.5153988413.145397783-2.62999893是29.876.231.84636564266.3692731295.846365644是44.4114.277.2041834578.615.44083669-1.39581655是44.981.944.844248446.88.96884968-1.9557516是5165.938.7288917736.97.7457783531.828891765是80101.7103.827372101.7202.127372048是10.737.64.7629569973.923568862

17、30.839388135是52.4100.568.4976318472.913.69952637-4.40236816是42.774.735.3260480737.47.065209614-2.07395193是39.6150106.9960346109.620-2.60396537是27.860.513.5689830515.106506262.71379661-1.53752321是3894.950.5537405352.910.11074811-2.34625947是52.485.158.7773674857.511.75547351.277367482是47.946.719.71769

18、71316.683075653.9435394273.034621487是11.5109.440.147997940.98.029599579-0.7520021是56.4104.57958512.91687690631.662708194是44.718.96.6571116344.38046924632.276642387是5、匯流計(jì)算5.1、fc的試算5.1.1試算方法 (9) (10)5.1.2 試算實(shí)例(1) 基本數(shù)據(jù)如表9表9 單位:mm 流域面雨(mm)EpPE累計(jì)PE累積凈雨量R時(shí)段凈雨量riri/PE4.001.21252.792.790.43240.43240.1551174

19、120.001.212518.7921.584.30423.87180.2060856437.001.212535.7957.3618.130413.82620.3863404710.001.21258.7966.1524.40916.27880.714510338.001.21256.7972.9431.19666.78751再假設(shè)，則有故劃分時(shí)段凈雨如表10所示表10 劃分地面及地下凈流深 單位:mmRgRs0.30 0.13 0.40 3.47 0.76 13.07 1.40 4.88 1.96 4.83 5.2 計(jì)算單位線(試錯(cuò)法)5.2.1 演算實(shí)例如表11所示表11 科林法試算表

20、單位:m3/s時(shí)段時(shí)段凈雨ri(mm)實(shí)測(cè)地面徑流量Qs(m3/s)0.133.474.884.83各部分之和均值13.07試算的UH(mm)假定的UH(mm)平均的UH(mm)調(diào)整的UH(mm)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)00.1300.000.000.000.0000.00013.470.8570.450.000.450.220.630.4735.0017.7335.158213.0710.6482.1712.1414.317.383.272.41169.0085.70169.86734.88107.8154.0258.61

21、0.0062.6438.4769.3451.10313.00182.05270.7644.83350.1863.45108.5517.080.00129.0895.86254.33187.42268.00227.71240.2975606.0222.9292.9582.4616.90195.22162.15443.87327.10227.00277.05227.1666667.2982.4478.73152.7281.61315.50255.36411.94303.57190.00246.78185.9117647.1891.7065.90130.76151.14349.50332.50314

22、.69231.90132.00181.95132.8238536.6681.0545.78110.76129.41287.00318.25218.42160.9682.00121.4882.0749406.3570.8628.4492.71109.61231.62259.31147.05108.3667.0087.6867.72710288.7320.0023.2464.4191.75179.39205.5083.2361.330.0030.6744.74911206.7720.000.0040.0163.74103.75141.5765.2048.050.0024.02012136.7810

23、.0032.6939.6072.2988.0248.7635.9317.971378.8100.0032.3532.3552.3226.4919.529.761425.6940.000.000.0016.189.527.013.511500.000.000.000.000.000.00再用調(diào)整的單位線計(jì)算地面流量，比較預(yù)測(cè)與實(shí)際值間的誤差大小。5.2.2 用計(jì)算出的單位線推出地面流量如表12所示表12 用計(jì)算出的單位線推出地面流量 凈雨量ri(mm)調(diào)整后單位線UH(mm)0.1285543.46816513.069424.8792174.828756Qs(m3/s)總徑流Q(m3/s)0.1

24、2855400003.46816535.1580.451972035.6099735.6099713.06942169.8672.18371612.193370184.2441184.24414.879217270.763.48074158.9126845.949460379.1029Qg10379.10294.828756240.2973.08912693.90404222.006317.154350576.4508Qg211.23017587.681227.1662.92032183.33896353.867582.8817916.97694767.1516Qg323.30145790.4

25、53185.9112.38996978.78492314.0542132.109782.02463795.2744Qg445.36054840.6349132.8231.70749964.477296.8927117.2461130.7434743.8897Qg585.58246829.472282.0741.05509846.06521242.9748110.8392116.0336599.0419Qg6136.2697735.311667.7270.87066128.46462173.591990.71001109.6929471.0571Qg7101.7006572.757744.749

26、0.57526823.48884107.265964.8072289.77189330.6582Qg875.90103406.55920015.5196988.5152440.0456864.13699208.2176Qg956.64635264.864058.4843433.0454739.63153131.1613Qg1042.27622173.4376021.8340132.7037254.53772Qg1131.5515386.08925021.608221.6082Qg1223.5474945.1556900Qg1317.5739317.57393Qg1413.1157513.115

27、75Qg159.7885279.788527Qg167.3053597.305359Qg175.4521255.452125Qg184.0690224.069022Qg193.0367873.036787Qg202.266412.26641兩者擬合曲線圖9所示圖9 預(yù)報(bào)與實(shí)測(cè)徑流擬合情況從上圖可以看出兩條流量過(guò)程線形狀大致相同，峰現(xiàn)時(shí)間也一致，雖然峰值差距較大，但并不影響整體洪水預(yù)報(bào)，故此單位線還算吻合。5.3 實(shí)時(shí)洪水預(yù)報(bào)5.3.1 基本數(shù)據(jù)表13表13 基本數(shù)據(jù)Pa時(shí)段1雨量(mm)時(shí)段2雨量(mm)時(shí)段3雨量(mm)蒸發(fā)能力(mm/h)馬斯京根k馬斯京根x63.1163729290.45

28、用降雨徑流相關(guān)圖可得表14表15 時(shí)段凈雨的計(jì)算 單位:mm 時(shí)段雨量ri(mm)EpPE累積PE累積R時(shí)段凈雨riri/PE160.2515.7515.755.9967607695.996760770.380747370.2536.7552.535.629.60323920.80553290.2528.7581.2564.3528.751再根據(jù)前面所求的分割時(shí)段凈雨，得表15表15 劃分地面地下徑流 單位:mmRgRs0.7458835.2508779531.57803428.025205341.95926.7915.3.2 地面徑流量預(yù)報(bào)得表16表16 計(jì)算地面徑流量?jī)粲?mm)修正后單位

29、線qi(m3/s)5.2509mm的徑流量(m3/s)28.0252mm的徑流量(m3/s)26.791mm的徑流量(m3/s)地面徑流量(m3/s)5.250900028.025235.15818.461018.46126.7910169.86789.19598.5310187.726270.76142.173476.05694.192712.420240.297126.177758.810455.0911340.078227.166119.282673.437725.3931518.112185.91197.620636.637643.7801378.037132.82369.744521

30、.019608.6001199.36482.07443.096372.239498.074913.40967.72735.563230.014355.846621.42344.74923.497189.806219.884433.18800.000125.410181.447306.8570119.887119.887005.3.3 計(jì)算地下徑流量由地下徑流量計(jì)算公式 (11)其中 (12)得出地下徑流演算表如表17表17 地下徑流演算表 單位:m3/s地下徑流量Qg1=0Qg2=27.569Qg3=78.901Qg4=131.293Qg5=97.986Qg6=73.129Qg7=54.578

31、Qg8=40.732Qg9=30.399Qg10=22.688Qg11=16.932Qg12=12.637Qg13=9.431Qg14=7.039Qg15=5.253Qg16=3.920Qg17=2.926Qg18=2.184再累積地面與地下徑流量得斷面徑流量見(jiàn)表18(注意地下徑流量較地面徑流量滯后4個(gè)時(shí)段)表18 斷面徑流量計(jì)算表 單位:m3/s總徑流(上斷面)Qt018.46103671187.7261055712.42032471340.0781611545.681351456.9381451330.6565531011.395796694.5518557487.7654933347.5

32、896561150.286286522.6875172916.9321150812.636751639.4310421967.0385617675.2530092353.9204182532.9258808792.1836391841.6296904371.2162682090.907723535.4 應(yīng)用馬斯京根法進(jìn)行河道洪水演算5.4.1 基本資料表19表19 k，x值馬斯京根k馬斯京根x90.45由公式 (13)得出，查表知其河段匯流系數(shù)表，見(jiàn)表20表20 河段匯流系數(shù)表匯流系數(shù)Pm0.0020.0390.2290.4910.1810.0460.0100.0025.4.2 河道演算實(shí)例由

33、上表可根據(jù)馬斯京根法演算下斷面河道流量，見(jiàn)表21表21 馬斯京根法推流下段面流量 單位:m3/s總徑流(上斷面)Qt匯流系數(shù)PmQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6Q700.002018.461036710.03900.036922187.72610550.22900.719980.375452712.42032470.49104.2275777.3213181.4248411340.0781610.18109.06436942.9892827.784392.6801561545.681350.04603.34144892.17352163.144352.263053.0913631456.9381450

34、.01000.84920833.97843349.7984306.877960.281572.9138761330.6565530.00200.184618.635401128.9481657.9784353.96156.820591011.3957960.0369221.87726132.77133242.5541758.9295333.6388694.55185570.3754527.12420361.6436279.7683715.3566487.76549331.42484113.4007871.10134263.7058347.58965612.68015615.4568167.01

35、915150.28628653.09136314.5693822.687517292.91387616.9321150812.636751639.4310421967.0385617675.2530092353.9204182532.9258808792.1836391841.6296904371.2162682090.907723530.6774509120.505594184Q8Q9Q10Q11Q12Q13Q14Q15Q162.66131351.895612.022792304.720439.444441.389104653.3524231.609627.087520.975531240.

36、8488496.5953159.052419.022850.69517961.2102183.0626341.025111.698313.5560.30057313.3065746.52421125.7139239.492979.598035.8611650.0453752.66131310.1139631.9493988.28555170.666534.415560.8848130.0338642.0227926.94551922.4372162.9137373.790575.1954410.6603520.0252741.3891044.87765515.9891227.2018211.139573.8774540.4928330.9755313.4758976.9131694.1064418.3136692.8938160.6951791.5028631.0436263.0647136.2046450.3005730.2268750.7788772.2872520.0453750.1693210.5812910.0338640.1263680.025274Q17Q18Q1