數(shù)模案例-明智的選擇

1、市場調(diào)查0000.2500002502502500.20.25激烈300001500142.51501500.55200001001001000.25500002502502500.70.3定價(jià)50中等300001500 151.50152.51501500.45200001001001000.3500002502502500.10.35溫和3000015020162.5150150151.50.35200001001001000.25500002002002000.20.35激烈3000012001241201200.4200008080800.3500002002002000.70.4定價(jià)

2、40中等30000120013201321201200.3200008080800.450000200不做市場調(diào)查20020010151.50.10.5溫和3000012001481201200.1200008080800.35500001501501500.20.4激烈30000900103.590900.25200006060600.4500001501501500.70.5定價(jià)30中等30000900 110.3011190900.1200006060600.5500001501501500.10.45溫和30000900118.590900.05200006060600.597激烈14

3、1.5142.5141.50.39250中等151.50 145.642152.5151.50.011溫和161.5162.5161.50.597激烈1231241230.39240中等1310 126.4031321310.2680.011激烈的結(jié)果溫和11470 145.61481470.597激烈102.5103.5102.50.39230中等1100 105.6061111100.011溫和117.5118.5117.5不開發(fā)-10-10.05激烈141.5142.5141.50.93850中等151.50 151.115152.5151.50.012溫和161.5162.5161.5

4、0.05激烈1231241230.93840中等1310 130.7861321310.5970.012市場調(diào)查中等的結(jié)果溫和11147150-1 150.50 151.11481470.05激烈102.5103.5102.50.93830中等1100 109.7111111100.012溫和117.5118.5117.5不開發(fā)-10-10.074激烈141.5142.5141.50.25950中等151.50 157.426152.5151.50.667溫和161.5162.5161.50.074激烈1231241230.25940中等1310 141.0741321310.1350.667

5、溫和的結(jié)果溫和11470 157.41481470.074激烈102.5103.5102.50.25930中等1100 114.4441111100.667溫和117.5118.5117.5不開發(fā)-10-1明智的選擇數(shù)據(jù)模型與決策案例分析報(bào)告2006404069 楊德智 2006404070李雨 2006404074 姚少輝開發(fā)費(fèi)用支持費(fèi)805銷售量競爭水平50激烈中等溫和銷售額盈利500000.20.250.3250165300000.250.30.3515065200000.550.450.351001540激烈中等溫和500000.250.30.4200115300000.350.40.

6、512035200000.40.30.180-530激烈中等溫和500000.350.40.515065300000.40.50.45905200000.250.10.0560-25報(bào)告費(fèi)用1激烈中等溫和結(jié)果為激烈0.80.150.03結(jié)果為中等0.150.80.07結(jié)果為溫和0.050.050.9先驗(yàn)概率激烈中等溫和0.20.70.1求解出：條件概率結(jié)果為激烈結(jié)果為中等 結(jié)果為溫和激烈0.597014925 0.050251260.07407407中等0.391791045 0.938023450.25925926溫和0.01119403 0.011725290.66666667結(jié)果為激烈結(jié)果為中等 結(jié)果為溫和概率0.2680.5970.135根據(jù)決策樹得出結(jié)果，最終