申萬海外研究報告庫銀brokerage sector outlook ar

1、SWS Research Co.is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai|+86 21 2329 7818Bringingto the WorldIndustry Research3 July 2017OverweightUnchangedGreener pasturesBrokerage: Sector outlookIn 2H17, we expect brokerage commissions to remain the core source of income for s

2、ecurities brokers despite having retreated YoY in 2016 amid weak market turnover, while we see resurgent investment banking and asset management businesses as likely to provide the growth drive. Given low business volume in 2H16, we expect major brokers to report positive YoY growth in net profit fo

3、r the full-year 2017 and we remain Overweight the brokerage sector.AnalystYi Zhang A0230514090002 BED999(+86) 21 2329 7275zhangyiStabilising commissions. Weipate a rebound in A-share market trading volume inRelated Reports“Brokerage sector outlook Finishing the year strong” December 16, 20162H17, be

4、nefitting brokers traditional brokerage and proprietary trading businesses. Afterwitnessing a significant decrease in commission rates during the 2014-15 bull equity market due to intense competition among brokers, commission rates have started to stabilise in 2016.Growing stock pledges. Brokers hav

5、e increased their capital reserves in order to carry out“Brokerage sector outlook Abandoning tradition”November 10, 2016more profitable, capital-intensive businesses, such as margin finng and stock-pledgedrepos. By end-May 2017, stock pledges and repurchase agreements increased 6.3% MoMand 50.3% YoY

6、 to Rmb292.2bn. We expect stock pledges and repurchase agreements to“Brokerage sector outlook Mixing it up”June 27, 2016grow further due to increasing finng demand from A-share listed companies.Alternative finwhile refinng. We note an acceleration of IPO approvals in January-May 2017,nificant declin

7、e due to regulatory controls.“Brokerage sector outlook Raising the lever”April 11, 2016Meanwhile, the bond market has remarestrictions on real estate companies finLooking forward to 2H17, we expect lower IPO volume and stric to force listed companies to seek alternative finrepos. We also expect debt

8、 issuances to continue to weaken in pace.latoryin the market. ng regulationdged“Brokerage sector outlook Reversion to mean”February 17, 2016finIn-house asset management. We believe brokers will increase theirin-house assetmanagement capacity, in order to replace channel asset management services. As

9、contrasted with in-house managed products, “channel products” brokers acting asintermediaries channelling banksfunds for a commission fee are low-marginproducts requiring high volume of business to be worthwhile. Given the current regulatorypressure on the business, we expect brokers to tilt back to

10、 providing in-house asset management services. We see the regulatory attempts to crack down on “channel businesses” as having limited lasting impact on broker earnings.Back into equities. Due to depressed equity and bond market in 2016, proprietary tradingThe company does not hold any equities or de

11、rivatives of the listed companymentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide final advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws

12、and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosureyields for-listed brokers have declined on a year-on-year basis, with returns of3-5%. Meanwhile, most brokers have shifted from equity to fixed income holdings. Withthe

13、 outlook for equity markets rising, we expect a rotation back into equities in 2H17.Better outlook. With the regulator tightening approvals of IPOs, and investors expectations about the inclusion of A-share companies in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, we expect rising capital inflows into the A-sha

14、re market, directly benefiting the brokerage sector. In 2H17, we expect brokers to continue to depend on brokerage commission income, driven by investment banking and asset management businesses. Thewithin its sphere of knowledge. Thesmay contact compliance for relevant disclosure materials or log i

15、ntounder disclosurecolumn for further information. Thessector is currently trading at aage of 1.05x 17E PB and 0.98x 18E PB, representing anshall have a comp ensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page.historical low. We remain Overweight the brokerage sector and recomme

16、nd investors tolook at two types of brokers. Attractive valuation Galaxy (6881:HK, O-PF),Securities (6066:HK, N-R), Citic (6030:HK, N-R). Industry leaders Haitong Securities(6837:HK, Hold), Huatai Securities (6886:HK, N-R), Guangfa Securities (1776:HK, N-R).SWS Research Co.is a subsidiary of Shenwan

17、 Hongyuan Securities.99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai|+86 21 2329 7818Bringingto the WorldIndustry Research伴隨著市場量的以及 IPO 數(shù)量的回升，2016 年全年券商經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)收入顯著下降而投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)收入顯著回升。由于資本密集型業(yè)務(wù)的收縮以及資本充足率的回升，我們看到券商凈資產(chǎn)率以及杠桿率有所下降。券商股息率處于低位。2017 年下半年，我們預(yù)計券商收入結(jié)構(gòu)中經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)占比持續(xù)降低，而投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)以及資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)將成為行業(yè)發(fā)展的焦點。鑒于 2016年下半年的低基數(shù)效應(yīng)，我們認(rèn)為主要券商在 20

18、17 年將會錄得利潤同比正增長。傭金下滑放緩。我們預(yù)計市場量將在 2017 年下半年反彈，券商傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)和自營業(yè)量意味著進(jìn)入市場的資金有限，進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致券商沒有動務(wù)將會受益。2017 年上半年縮減的市場力通過降低傭金率吸引的客戶。因此，我們預(yù)計行業(yè)傭金率將會下行并且趨于。股票質(zhì)押擴(kuò)容。在券商擁有多余的資本金的情況下，股票質(zhì)押回購合約業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模增長是資本密集型業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展的很重要的一部分。我們認(rèn)為股票質(zhì)押回購業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模會隨著上市公司融資需求上漲而進(jìn)一步增加。截止 2017 年五月底，股票質(zhì)押回購規(guī)模達(dá)到 2922 億元6.3%，同比增長 50.3%。，環(huán)比增長投行業(yè)務(wù)調(diào)整。我們看到 2017 年前五月

19、IPO 審核，由于監(jiān)管的因素再融資項目顯著減少。而債券市場自 2016 年下半年以來持續(xù)，監(jiān)管層開始限制地產(chǎn)公司融資并收緊了市場的性。2017 年下半年，我們預(yù)計 IPO 項目因為監(jiān)管而以及更加嚴(yán)格的再融資監(jiān)管將會導(dǎo)致上市公司尋求可替代的融資，比如股票質(zhì)押回購。我們同時預(yù)期債券市場將會持續(xù)。資管轉(zhuǎn)型。我們相信券商將會擴(kuò)張主動資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)來替代收縮的通道資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)。跟主動管理相比，通道規(guī)模較大但是利潤較低。就目前的監(jiān)管形勢來看，通道業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模會逐漸萎縮。資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)上，加強主動管理業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模將是券商的發(fā)展重點。根據(jù)我們的分析，去通道業(yè)務(wù)對于券商收入的影響有限。自營業(yè)績承壓。鑒于2016 年全年，

20、股權(quán)債券市場表現(xiàn)，港股上市券商自營業(yè)務(wù)投資均錄得同比下跌。我們注意到大部分券商錄得投資率約為 3%-5%。同時，大部分券商在 2016 年由持有股權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)為持有固定會上升。由于股權(quán)市場預(yù)期反轉(zhuǎn)，我們預(yù)期 2017 年下半年股權(quán)持有量將年度預(yù)期轉(zhuǎn)好。伴隨著加入MSCI 以及IPO 數(shù)量的減少，資金流入市場的預(yù)期正在升高。我們期望投資者在股權(quán)市場中的風(fēng)險偏好升高，而券商板塊將直接。2017 年下半年，我們預(yù)計券商將會持續(xù)脫離對業(yè)務(wù)的依賴。同時，投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)以及資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)的發(fā)展將會成為行業(yè)的重點。鑒于 2016 年下半年的低基數(shù)，我們預(yù)計主要券商將會錄得利潤同比正增長。目前該板塊的平均估值約為 1.0

21、5 倍 2017 年 PB，0.98 倍 2018 年 PB，正處于歷史低位。因為我們維持券商板塊增持的評級并向投資者推薦兩種券商股。估值吸引銀河（6881:HK,增持），中信建投證券（6066:HK,未評級），中信證券（6030:HK,未評級）。特色業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)頭羊海通證券（6837:HK,中性），（6886:HK,未評級），廣發(fā)證券（1776:HK,未評級）。Industry ResearchJul 3, 2017Trading volumeBy yearend 2016, A-share average daily turnover reached Rmb518.5bn (-50.0% YoY

22、), whilethe balance of margin finng and securities lending totalled Rmb939.2bn (-25.0% YoY),ing for 2.4% of the total A-share market capitalisation. We expect the A-sharemarket trading volume to rebound in 2H17 on the back of investors expectations about the inclusion of A-share companies in the MSC

23、I Emerging Markets Index as well as a decreasing number of IPO approvals, benefitting brokers traditional brokerage and proprietary trading businesses.Fig 1: A-share average daily turnover(Rmbbn)700600500400300200100020162017Source: SWS Research, WindFig 2: Margin finng and securities lending(Rmbbn)

24、2,5005.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%2,0001,5001,0005000balance of margin finSource: SWS Research, Windng and securities lending% of circulated market capPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 101/201204/201207/201210/201201/201304/201307/201310/201301/201404/201407/

25、201410/201401/201504/201507/201510/201501/201604/201607/201610/201601/201704/201707/2017JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecIndustry ResearchJul 3, 2017Stabilising commissionsAfter witnessing a significant decrease in commission rates during the 2014-15 bull equity market due to intense competition

26、among brokers, commission rates have started to stabilise in 2016. By yearend 2016, the average commission rate was at 3.8bps (-24% YoY). We see limited risk for commission rates to decrease further.0.09%0.08%0.07%0.06%0.05%0.04%0.03%0.02%0.01%0.00%Source: SWS Research, SACFig 4: Brokers commission

27、rate in 20160.10%0.09%0.08%0.07%0.06%0.05%0.04%0.03%0.02%0.01%0.00%Source: SWS Research, Company data, WindWe simulated brokers earnings sensitivity to a 10% change in A-share average dailyturnover, based on 2016 data. We found thatEverbright Securities has thehighest correlation to changes in A-sha

28、re trading volume, while Guangfa has thelowest correlation.Fig 1: Brokers earnings sensitivity on 10% change of A-shaTO (based on FY16 data)6178:HKEverbright10.0%1375:HKCentral9.4%6030:HKCitic9.1%Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 2CICC2011Hengtou1H12Everbright2012Guotai Jun

29、an1H13CMSC2013Central1H14Orient2014HaitongGuolian1H15Galaxy2015Guangfa1H16Citic2016Huatai6881:HKGalaxy8.7%6886:HKHuatai9.2%1456:HKGuolian9.8%TickerCompanyEarnings sensitivity on ADTOFig 3: Average commission rateIndustry ResearchJul 3, 20176099:HKCMSC8.6%6066:HKSecurities7.1%6837:HKHaitong6.0%1776:H

30、KSource: SWS Research, Company data, WindGuangfa5.0%Growing stock pledgesBrokers have increased their capital reserves in order to carry out more profitable, capital-intensive businesses, such as margin finng and stock-pledged repos. By end-May 2017,stock pledges and repurchase agreements increased

31、6.3% MoM and 50.3% YoY toRmb292.2bn. We expect stock pledges and repurchase agreements to grow further due toincreasing finng demand from A-share listed companies.Fig 6: Stock pledges and repos500450400350300250200150100500Source: SWS Research, WindFig 7: Proportion of stock pledges and repos in bro

32、kers revenue60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: SWS Research, Company dataPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 3Rmb bnOrient2014/1/12014/3/12014/5/12014/7/12014/9/12014/11/12015/1/12015/3/12015/5/12015/7/12015/9/12015/11/12016/1/12016/3/12016/5/12016/7/12016/9/12016/11/12017/1/12017/3

33、/12017/5/1HaitongCentralGTJACiticHuataiCICCCMSCGuolianGuangfaEverbrightHengtouGalaxy3958:HKOrient5.8%2611:HKGTJA6.9%3908:HKCICC7.3%Industry ResearchJul 3, 2017Alternative finngWe note an acceleration of initial public offering (IPO) approvals in January-May 2017, witha total of 189, (x3.5 YoY). IPO

34、finng increased 261% YoY to Rmb94.1bn. In the first fivemonths of 2017, total equity finsignificant decline in equity refinng declined 46% YoY to Rmb681.0bn, following ang projects (-58% YoY to Rmb655bn), due toregulatory controls on refinngprojects and shaolders reduction of shares.Meanwhile, the b

35、ond market has remained gloomy since 2H16 in the wake of regulatoryrestrictions on real estate companies finng and tightened liquidity in the market. InJanuary-May 2017, corporate bonds declined 67% YoY to Rmb1,197bn, while enterprisebonds declined 77% YoY to Rmb290bn. Looking forward to 2H17, we ex

36、pect lower IPO volume and stricter refinng regulation to force listed companies to seek alternativefinng channels, such as stock-pledged repos. We also expect debt issuances tocontinue to weaken in pace.Fig 8: Number of IPOs706050403020100IPO admittedIPO appliedSource: SWS Research, WindFig 9: Stock

37、 issuance(Rmbbn)400350300250200150100500IPOSource: SWS Research, Windadditional issuancerights issuancePlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 401/201601/201502/201503/201504/201505/201506/201507/201508/201509/201510/201511/201512/201501/201602/201603/201604/201605/201606/201607/

38、201608/201609/201610/201611/201612/201601/201702/201703/201704/201705/201702/201603/201604/201605/201606/201607/201608/201609/201610/201611/201612/201601/201702/201703/201704/201705/2017Industry ResearchJul 3, 2017Fig 10: Bond issuance(Rmbbn)6005004003002001000enterprise bondSource: SWS Research, Wi

39、ndcorporate bondconvertible bondFig 11: IPO project pipelines160140120100806040200Mian boardSource: SWS Research, WindSMStart-up boardUndecidedIn-house asset managementWith the regulators efforts to create common asset management standards among brokers, we see increased restrictions on leverage, as

40、set pools, expected investment yield, among other features. We believe brokers will increase their in-house asset management capacity ie, collective asset management (CAM) and special asset management (SAM) in order to replace channel asset management services ie, target asset management (TAM). By y

41、earend 2016, the total amount of assets under CAM was Rmb2.2tn (vs Rmb14.7tn for TAM and Rmb431.5bn for SAM) with total revenue of Rmb8.8bn (vs Rmb11.8bn for TAM and Rmb646m for SAM).Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 501/201502/201503/201504/201505/201506/201507/201508/2015

42、09/201510/201511/201512/201501/201602/201603/201604/201605/201606/201607/201608/201609/201610/201611/201612/201601/201702/201703/201704/201705/2017CiticHaitongGalaxyHuataiGuangfaCentralGuolianCICCHengtouOrientEverbrightCMSCGTJAIndustry ResearchJul 3, 2017Fig 12: Asset management revenue25201511.7711

43、0.251105-20152016CAMTAMSAMSource: SWS Research, SACFig 13: Total assets under management20,00015,00010,00014,685.710,158.05,000020152016CAMTAMSAMSource: SWS Research, SACFig 14: Management fee rate1.00%0.80%0.60%0.10%0.09%0.40%0.20%0.00%20152016CAMTAMSAMSource: SWS Research, SACWe note that targeted

44、 asset management productsunder management by brokerage firms (85% in 2016), and asset management revenue.ed for most of the assetsed for over 55% of totalThe average management fee rate for CAM products in 2016 was 0.44% (vs 0.09% for TAMproducts and 0.23% for SAM products). Compared with in-house

45、asset management products, channel products are low-margin products requiring high volume of business toPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 6Rmb bnRmb bnIndustry ResearchJul 3, 2017be worthwhile. Given the current regulatory pressure on the business, we expect brokersto tilt

46、back to providing in-house asset management services.We see the regulatory attempts to crack down on “channel businesses” as having limited lasting impact on broker earnings.TAM % of Asset Management23.02%18.69%16.42%25.99%4.60%5.95%0.03%9.45%18.29%34.92%Source: SWS Research, Company dataBack into e

47、quitiesDue to depressed equity and bond market in 2016, proprietary trading yields for Hong Kong-listed brokers have declined on a year-on-year basis, with returns of 3-5%. Meanwhile, most brokers have shifted from equity to fixed income holdings. With the outlook for equity markets rising, we expec

48、t a rotation back into equities in 2H17.Fig 16: Proprietary trading investment yield6%5%4%3%2%1%0%Source: SWS Research, Company dataFig 17: Proprietary equity/net capital90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%20162015Source: SWS Research, Company dataPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage

49、 7GuolianHuataiCiticOrientGalaxyCICCGuangfaHengtouCentralCMSCHaitongCiticGTJAGTJASecuritiesGuangfaHengtouGalaxyHuataiHaitongCICCEverbrightOrientCentralGuolianEverbrightSecuritiesCMSCTAM % of total revenue3.15%0.72%0.40%1 23%0.70%0.13%0.00%1.03%1.16%2.30%Fig 15: Earnings contribution of TAM products

50、to brokers total earningsCiticHaitongGalaxyHuataiGuangfaCentralOrientEverbrightCMSCGTJAIndustry ResearchJul 3, 2017Fig 18: Proprietary fixed income/net capital300%250%200%150%100%50%0%20162015Source: SWS Research, Company dataFinalsWe note a decreased ROE and leverage ratio in 2016, mainly due to a slowdown incapital-intensive businesses and adequate capital position, while brokers dividend yields remain at a lower level.In 2H17, we expect brokerage commissions to remain the core source of income for securities brokers despite having ret