美股機械行業(yè)美國2019年q2預(yù)覽

1、North America Equity Research10 July 2019US MachineryQ2'19 Earnings PreviewThe S&P Machinery Index has slightly underperformed the broader market YTD (up 17% vs. S&P 500 up 20%) and is now trading at 14.4x consensus 2019 EPS (vs. three- year average of 17.2x), 3.5 turns below the S&P

2、 500 Indexnot a huge surprise given where we are in the US economic cycle and the growing fears of a global slowdown. We are downgrading three stocks from Overweight to Neutral heading into Q2 earnings: 1) TRMB (up 37% YTD) is approaching our price target and we do not see a catalyst to support a hi

3、gher multiple; 2) AGCO (up 38% YTD) is just below our price target and we see no catalyst for multiple expansion or significant earnings upside; and3) PH (up 11% YTD) on weaker industrial production globally. We will co-host a call today at 10am ET with Steve Tusa and our colleagues in Europe and Ja

4、pan;MachineryAnn Duignan AC(1-212) 622-0381ann.duignanBloomberg JPMA DUIGNAN <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities LLCThomas Simonitsch(1-212) 622-2250thomas.simonitschJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCNatalia Vaysblit-Vitebskiy(1-212) 270-3922natalia.vaysblit-vitebskiyJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCBhanu P Koduru(91

5、-22) 6157-3607bhanu.koduruJ.P. Morgan India Private Limitedplease contact us or your JPM salesfor dial-in details.·Global manufacturing PMIs are slowing. JPMs global manufacturing PMI fell 3.5-pts YoY to 49.4 in June, down 0.4-pts from May. Regionally, the ISM US Manufacturing PMI was 51.7 in J

6、une, still above 50 but down 0.4-pts from May; the Eurozone PMI was 47.6 in June, down 0.1-pt MoM; and the China PMI was 49.4 in June, down 1.2-pts MoM. China and Europe have been slowing for a few quarters while the fear in the US is that business sentiment is weakening more broadly, weighing on in

7、vestment. We note the three largest US states in terms of GDP are CA, TX and NY (though TX is contributing the most to growth); interestingly, the San Francisco Fed recently reported an increase in business uncertainty while the Dallas Fed survey of business activity fell to a three-year low and eve

8、n the NY Fed reported rising service business uncertainty as a cause for concern. The uncertainty seems to be weighing on both manufacturing and service sectors, raising concerns of a further slowdown in economic activity.·Oil/gas, truck, agriculture and automotive are growing risks. Investment

9、s in US oil/gas have declined and are expected to be down >10% in 2019, weighing on equipment and parts demand. The Cass Freight Index fell 6% YoY in May, a fifth month of decline which, coupled with weakness in spot market pricing across the trucking industry, is weighing on truck orders and use

10、d truck values seem to be cracking. The impact of the weather on US agriculture remains a headwind at least in the near term until farmers have a clearer picture of 2019 yields (and cash receipts). US automotive production remains stable while the switch to pick-up trucks vs. cars remains a positive

11、 catalyst for suppliers. On the other hand, non-residential construction activity remains above last cycle peak but seems to be slowing while public Highway & Street construction spending is up 19% YoY on a 3MMA basis.·Input costs moderating; can pricing hold up? Hot rolled coiled steel pri

12、ces are down 40% from last years peak and companies have pushed through significant price actions as a result of broader input cost inflation. Now with demand slowing, there may be pressure to give up pricing.·Top picks and stocks to avoid. Going into Q2 we remain OW CAT and think the company c

13、an beat and raise; its backlog will be a key catalyst. The truck stocks (PCAR and CMI) should deliver decent quarterly results given the level of production. We would avoid PH and KMT as both companies will have to guide FY20 and are likely to be cautious; also CNHI, DE and TRMB on their exposure to

14、 NA agriculture.See page 59 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe firm may have aof interest that could affect

15、the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.獲取報告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報告；當(dāng)日華爾街日報、4、行研報告均為公開利歸原作者所有，起點財經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)。掃一掃關(guān)注 回復(fù)：加入“起點財經(jīng)”群。Ann Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019Equity Ratings

16、and Price TargetsMkt Cap ($ mn) Rating Price TargetCompanyTickerPrice ($)CurPrevCurEnd DatePrevEnd DateActuant Corp AGCO Corp.Allison Transmission Holdings Caterpillar Inc.CNH Industrial Cummins Inc Deere & Co. Eaton Corp.llinois Tool WorksATU US AGCO US ALSN US CAT US CNHI US CMI US DE US ETN U

17、S ITW US KMT US MTW US MCRN US NAV US OSK US PCAR US PH US TEX US TRMB US WBC US1,430.365,856.075,702.7777,727.0514,088.8426,297.9952,666.4534,178.4847,919.992,831.86600.23991.453,323.205,901.1224,565.1121,025.432,079.8811,350.716,791.0823.1376.4545.17134.2910.39167.29163.3580.25146.4133.9816.8413.9

18、333.5083.4070.63163.3629.4645.15132.30N N UW OW NN UW OW NN N N N N UW NOW N NRn/c OWn/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c OWn/c OW23.0077.0048.00172.0011.00169.00124.0092.00144.0039.0017.0014.0034.0085.0066.00169.0042.0046.00Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-

19、19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c 40.00n/c 13.00n/c n/c n/c186.00n/c n/cn/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/cKennamInc.Manitowoc Co. Milacron Navistar Int'lOshkosh Corp. PACCAR Inc.Parker Han

20、nifin Terex Corp Trimble Inc WABCOSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 09 Jul 19.2Ann Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019Table of ContentsValuation4Fundamentals In Manufacturing7Bright Spot in US: Public Con

21、struction Spending8NA Truck: Risks Growing10EU Truck Registrations Strong YTD11Automotive Production Forecasts Revised Down Again12Challenging Agriculture Fundamentals13Rig Counts and Well Completions Bear Watching15China Machinery Sales Strong YTD16Pricing Power Remains In Focus17Earnings Summary19

22、Earnings Schedule20Actuant Corp21AGCO Corp.22Allison Transmission Holdings23Caterpillar Inc.24CNH Industrial25Cummins Inc26Deere & Co.27Eaton Corp.28Illinois Tool Works29KennamInc.30Manitowoc Co.31Milacron32Navistar Int'l33Oshkosh Corp.34PACCAR Inc.35Parker Hannifin36Terex Corp37Trimble Inc3

23、8WABCO393Ann Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019ValuationThe S&P Machinery Index slightly underperformed the broader market YTD (up 17% vs. S&P 500 up 20%). Within our coverage, total shareholder returns have averaged 18% YTD; top performers include AG

24、CO (up 38%), TRMB (up 37%), OSK (up 37%), NAV (up 29%), and CMI (up 27%), while underperformers include KMT (up 3%), ALSN (up 4%), CAT (up 7%) and TEX (up 8%). By sub-sector, our construction equipment group was up 22% YTD while the diversified industrials group was up 13%, the truck group was up 22

25、%, and the agriculture equipment group was up 21%.Table 1: Total Shareholder ReturnsSource: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.4Coverage Universe Relative PerformanceTotal Shareholder Returns2009201020112012201320142015201620172018Q2'192019 YTDS&PS&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Machinery Index26%15%2%16%32

26、%14%1%12%22%-4%4%20%40%54%-10%17%27%4%-15%34%42%-15%4%17%Construction & EnginesCAT CMI MTW OSK TEX TRMB33%69%-1%2%3%3%-23%42%75%-18%1%7%75%143%-19%25%33%4%-37%61%33%-22%9%27%17%32%-29%72%49%-5%-30%84%64%-62%8%14%321%-5%-39%39%70%-2%-18%68%42%-32%12%37%14%57%-56%108%50%-33%-33%73%54%-42%-2%8%17%5

27、8%9%38%16%-24%-19%41%35%-19%12%37%Construction & Engines - Average80%59%-23%47%37%-9%-27%61%51%-32%7%22%Construction & Engines - Median25%58%-24%38%41%-4%-27%65%48%-27%9%21%Diversified IndustrialsATU ETN ITW KMT MCRN PH-2%44%-15%23%31%-26%-12%8%-2%-17%2%10%33%64%-12%29%44%-8%-21%34%22%-10%4%

28、19%41%14%-10%34%41%15%0%35%39%-22%6%17%20%55%-6%11%32%-30%-45%68%58%-30%1%3%NANANANANANA-37%49%3%-38%22%17%29%63%-10%14%54%2%-23%48%45%-24%0%11%Diversified Industrials - Average24%48%-11%22%41%-9%-23%40%27%-23%6%13%Diversified Industrials - Median29%55%-10%23%41%-8%-22%41%30%-23%3%14%Truck and Truck

29、 ComponentsALSN CMI NAV PCAR WBCNANANA-10%38%25%-22%33%30%3%4%4%75%143%-19%25%33%4%-37%61%33%-22%9%27%81%50%-35%-43%75%-12%-74%255%37%-39%7%29%29%60%-32%25%35%18%-27%38%15%-15%6%25%65%136%-29%50%43%12%-2%4%35%-25%1%23%Truck and Components - Average62%97%-29%10%45%9%-32%78%30%-20%5%22%Truck and Compo

30、nents - Median70%98%-31%25%39%8%-32%50%34%-24%6%26%Ag MachineryAGCO CNHI DE37%57%-15%14%21%-23%1%29%25%-21%12%38%NANANANA33%-27%-13%30%56%-30%3%15%45%56%-5%14%8%-1%-11%39%55%-3%4%11%Ag Machinery - Average41%56%-10%14%21%-17%-8%32%45%-18%6%21%Ag Machinery - Median41%56%-10%14%21%-23%-11%30%55%-21%4%1

31、5%Ann Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019The S&P Machinery Index is now trading at 14.4x 2019 EPS estimates (vs. three- year average of 17.2x), 3.5 turns below the S&P 500 index; our coverage universe is trading at 12.9x consensus 2019 EPS. The constru

32、ction group is trading at 9.9x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average forward P/E of 16.7x). The diversified industrial group is trading at 14.3x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average 16.6x). The truck group is trading at 11.2x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average 17.5x). The agricultural equipment group is tra

33、ding at 14.4x 2019E EPS (vs. three-year average 18.3x).Table 2: Multiples Remain Relatively CompressedSource: Bloomberg, J P. Morgan estimates.5TSR %Forward P/E Multiple07/09/19YTD3Y Avg2Y Avg1Y Avg20192020S&PS&P 50020%17.2x17.0x16.4x17.9x16.1xS&P Machinery17%17.2x15.7x13.8x14.4x13.7xCon

34、struction & EnginesCaterpillar Inc7%18.7x14.3x11.0x10.8x10.3xCummins Inc27%13.5x11.9x9.8x10.3x11.3xManitowoc Co14%NANANA12.2x9.7xOshkosh Corp37%15.3x13.7x10.5x11.2x10.7xTerex Corp8%19.2x14.5x9.4x7.2x7.4xAverage (ex-MTW)20%16.7x13.6x10.2x9.9x9.9xTrimble37%21.6x21.0x19.0x21.6x19.3xDiversified Indu

35、strialsActuant Corp-A10%21.6x21.4x20.6x19.0x17.2x Eaton Corp Plc19%14.8x14.5x13.6x13.6x12.8x Illinois Tool Works17%19.8x19.4x17.7x18.4x17.3x Kennam Inc3%16.4x13.9x11.7x10.8x10.2x Milacron Holding17%10.0x9.7x8.9x10.2x8.4x Parker Hannifin11%17.1x 16.0x 14.4x 13.9x 12.9xAverage13%16.6x15.8x14.5x14.3x13

36、.1xTruck & Truck ComponentsAllison Transmission4%11.7x10.4x9.6x9.0x9.2x Cummins Inc27%13.5x11.9x9.8x10.3x11.3xNavistar Intl29%30.5x14.9x10.1x8.3x12.0xPACCAR Inc25%13.9x12.3x10.5x10.5x12.3xWABCO Holdings Inc23%17.7x17.4x15.7x17.9x17.1xAverage22%17.5x13.4x11.1x11.2x12.4xAgricultural MachineryAGCO

37、Corp38%18.4x16.3x14.0x15.6x14.0xDeere & Co11%17.6x15.3x13.4x15.7x12.3xCNH Industrial15%18.8x16.5x12.7x11.8x10.8xAverage21%18.3x16.0x13.4x14.4x12.3xAnn Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019Figure 1: In January, Our Coverage Was Trading At 11.6x Our 2019E EPSE

38、arnings Growth vs. Forward P/E Multiple (2019)TEX (7x, 45%)MTW (13x, 181%)35%1 St. Dev25%AGCO DEKMTPHETN CNHIOSK15%NAVTRMBAvg. 2019 EPS GrowthCATATU5%ITWMCRNWBCPCARCMIALSN-5%-15%-25%3x5x7x9x11x13x15x17x19x21x23xForward P/E MultipleSource: Bloomberg, J P. Morgan estimates as of January 1, 2019.Figure

39、 2: Now The Group Average Multiple Has Expanded To 13.6x Our 2019E EPSEarnings Growth vs. Forward P/E Multiple (2019)MTW (12x, 233%)TEX (7x, 51%)35%AGCO1 St. DevOSK25%KMTCNHIPHETN15%ATUAvg. 2019 EPS GrowthPCARCMICATTRMBDE5%ITWALSN-5%WBC-15%MCRNNAV (17x, -26%)-25%3x5x7x9x11x13x15x17x19x21x23xForward

40、P/E MultipleSource: Bloomberg, J P. Morgan estimates.6Avg. Fwd P/E MultipleAvg. Fwd P/E Multiple2019 EPS Growth (JPMe)2019 EPS Growth (JPMe)Ann Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019Fundamentals In ManufacturingThe JPM global manufacturing PMI declined 3.5-pts Yo

41、Y to 49.4 in June, down 0.4- pts MoM. The ISM US Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7 in June, down from 52.1 in May; the New Orders component was 50.0 in June, down 2.7-pts MoM and down 13.0-pts YoY. The data suggest that the pace of industrial activity decelerated in the quarter; the New Orders index

42、 was at 50 (i.e., no growth) after 41 consecutivemonths of above 50 (signaling expansion). The Caixmanufacturing PMIwas 49.4 in June (down 1.2-pts MoM and down 1.6-pts YoY), signaling contraction(below 50) for the second consecutive month. Similarly, the Markit Eurozone PMI came in at 47.6 in June (

43、down 0.1-pt MoM and down 7.3-pts YoY), the second lowest reading since April 2013.Figure 3: JPM Global Manufacturing PMI At 49.4 In Jun19J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMIFigure 4: ISM US Manufacturing PMI At 51.7 In Jun19ISM US Manufacturing PMI8080707060605050404030302020Source: Bloomberg, J.P.

44、Morgan.Source: Bloomberg, ISM, J.P. Morgan.Figure 5: CaixManufacturing PMI At 49.4 In Jun19Figure 6: Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI At 47.6 In Jun19CaixManufacturing PMIMarkit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI8080707060605050404030302020Source: Bloomberg, Markit, J.P. Morgan.Source: Bloomberg, Markit, J

45、.P. Morgan.7Index LevelIndex LevelIndex LevelIndex LevelAnn Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019Bright Spot in US: Public Construction SpendingFigure 7: Private Non-Residential Spending Up 0.7% In Q2'19TD.Private Construction Spending: Non-Residential (SAAR

46、, $MM)Figure 8: .But The 3M ROC Is DeterioratingValue Of Private Construction Put In Place, Non-Residential (SAAR)454,290500,0001.41.3450,000414,4951.2400,0001.1350,0001.0300,0000.9250,0000.8200,0000.7150,0000.6100,0003M ROC12M ROCMean+1 St. Dev-1 St. DevSource: US Census Bureau, J P. Morgan.Source:

47、 US Census Bureau, J P. Morgan.Figure 9: Total Public Spending Up 12.8% In Q219TDTotal Public Construction Spending (SAAR, $MM)Figure 10: .The 3M ROC Trend May Be PeakingTotal Value Of Public Construction Put In Place (SAAR)1.2400,000340,635325,4811.1300,0001.0200,0000.90.8100,0001999 2000 2001 2002

48、 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20191999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20193M ROC12M ROCMean+1 St. Dev-1 St. DevSource: US Census Bureau, J P. Morgan.Source: US Census Bureau, J P. Morga

49、n.8Rate Of Change (x)Rate Of Change (x)Ann Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019Figure 11: State & Local Contract Awards For Highways At A PeakState & Local Contract AwardsFigure 12:Airport Investments Up 25%Value Of Airport Terminal & Runway Constru

50、ction Work (January-July)$B(Trailing 12 Months, $B)$60$1454.354.751.2$1249.1$5046.145.344.142.2$10$40$8$30$620.920.821.019.618.7$2017.0$416.015.7$2$10$0$0Aug'11Aug'12Aug'13Aug'14 HighwaysAug'15 BridgesAug'16Aug'17Aug'18Real $BNominal $BSource: ARTBA.Source: ARTBA.Figu

51、re 13: State Budgets Mostly Supportive Of Continued InvestmentNumber of States Making Mid-Year Budget CutsFigure 14:Biggest Risk Is Contractor Profitability On Rising InputsChange in Producer Prices for Steel Related Inputs22%50Steel bars, conduits, well casings16%4520%Steel pilings, bars & tube

52、s4114%394011%Bridge sections, expansion joints, structural steel4%358%30Cable, spring work, chain link fencing4%257%22Highway guardrails, scaffolds, gratings4%2019194%Steel & Iron castings142%15114%109Steel pipes, bends, couplings882%50%Aug'18 vs. Aug'175%10%15%20%25%Aug'18 vs. Mar'18-FY 2009FY 2010FY 2011FY 2012FY 2013FY 2014FY 2015FY 2016 FY 2017FY 2018Source: ARTBA.Source: ARTBA.9Ann Duignan(1-212) 622-0381ann duignanNorth America Equity Research10 July 2019NA Truck: Ris