大二下專業(yè)課宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)顏色lecture

1、Lecture 3: UnemploymentSe Yan Guanghua School of ManagementPeking UniversitySpring 20141Why do we careVery important for real lifeTheoretically, its a misallocation of human resourceStandard microeconomics cannot explain2What we need to doGive a precise statistics of unemploymentUnderstand the cause

2、s of unemploymentIf possible, propose policy suggestions to lower unemployment3Section 3.1Understanding Unemployment Data4Population StructureThis figure shows the population labor force categories for 2003.5Household SurveyThe U.S. Census Bureau conducts monthly surveys to determine the status of t

3、he labor force in the United States.Survey 60,000 households covering about 120,000 persons aged over 16.The population is divided into two groups: The working-age populationthe number of people aged 16 years and older who are not in jail, hospital, or other institution.People too young to work (les

4、s than 16 years of age) or in institutional care.6Labor ForceThe working-age population is divided into two groups: People in the labor force People not in the labor forceThe labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed workers. Discouraged workers, people who would like to work but have given

5、up looking for jobs after an unsuccessful search, dont show up in unemployment statistics.7Establishment SurveyDepartment of LaborMonthly data. Survey 200,000 non-farm establishments. Cover 98% of all workers in US, but exclude individual entrepreneurs and self-employed. Normally reported in monthly

6、 payroll jobs changedAsk employees, weekly working hours, hours wage, overtime hours.8Definition of UnemploymentTo be considered unemployed, a person must be:without work and have made specific efforts to find a job within the past four weeks, orwaiting to be called back to a job from which he or sh

7、e was laid off, orwaiting to start a new job within 30 days.9Unemployment RateThe unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed.10Labor-force Participation RateThe labor-force participation rate is the percentage of the adult population that is in the labor

8、force.11The Labor-Market Experiences of Various Demographic Groups12Copyright2004 South-WesternUnemployment Rate Since 196013Copyright2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning108642019701975196019651980198519902005Percent ofLabor Force19952000Natural rate ofunemploymentUnemployment rateLabor Force Particip

9、ation Rates Since 195014Copyright2003 Southwestern/Thomson Learning1008060402001950195519601965197019751980198519902000Labor-ForceParticipationRate (in percent)WomenMen1995Three Labor Market IndicatorsThis figure shows the three labor market indicators for 19632003.15Sources of China Labor Statistic

10、sPrint PublicationsChina Labor Statistical YearbookChina Statistical YearbookOnline resourcesMinistry of Labor and Social Security National Bureau of Statistics Academic: CHNS dataEvery 3-4 yearsIn 2000, 9 provinces, 36 cities, 4400 households, 15600 individuals16Basic Facts of Chinas Labor Market (

11、2006)Populatin: 1.31 billionLabor force: 0.78 billionLabor force in agriculture: 0.33 billionUrban labor force: 0.28 billionRural labor force：0.48 billion 17Measure Chinas UnemploymentThe only indicator is urban registered unemployment rateUnemployment seriously underestimated becauseRural implicit

12、unemployment is not taken into accountLaid-off workers are not taken into account18Chinas Urban Registered Unemployment Rate (%)19China Statistical YearbookUnemployment of Agricultural Labor and Migrant LaborAgricultural unemployment: implicit, hard to account forUnemployment of migrant labor: due t

13、o the financial crisis, about one third lost their jobs20Okuns LawThe negative relationship between unemployment and GDP is called Okuns Law.In short, it is defined as:Percentage Change in Real GDP = 3% - 2 the Change in the Unemployment RateIf the unemployment rate remains the same, real GDP grows

14、by about 3 percent. For every percentage point the unemployment rate rises, real GDP growth typically falls by 2 percent. Hence, if the unemployment rate rises from 6 to 8 percent, then real GDP growth would be:Percentage Change in Real GDP = 3% - 2 (8% - 6%) = - 1%21Section 3.2Understanding the Cau

15、ses of Unemployment and the Related Public Policies 22Why UnemployedIn an ideal labor market, wages would adjust to balance the supply and demand for labor, ensuring that all workers would be fully employed.23Types of UnemploymentFrictionalStructuralCyclical24Frictional Unemploymentunemployment that

16、 arises from normal labor market turnover, caused by the time it takes workers to search for a jobworkers have different abilities, preferences, jobs have different skill requirements, geographic mobility of workers not instantaneous, flow of information about vacancies and job candidates is imperfe

17、ct.Sector shift: changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions. It takes time for workers to change sectors, so sectoral shifts cause frictional unemployment.25Frictional Unemploymentunemployment that arises from normal labor market turnover, caused by the time it takes workers to

18、 search for a jobworkers have different abilities, preferences, jobs have different skill requirements, geographic mobility of workers not instantaneous, flow of information about vacancies and job candidates is imperfect.Sector shift: changes in the composition of demand among industries or regions

19、. It takes time for workers to change sectors, so sectoral shifts cause frictional unemployment.26Public Policy and Frictional UnemploymentGovnt employment agencies: disseminate info about job openings to better match workers & jobsPublic job training programs: help workers displaced from declining

20、industries get skills needed for jobs in growing industries.27Public Policy and Frictional UnemploymentUnemployment InsuranceUI pays part of a workers former wages for a limited time after losing his/her job.UI increases search unemployment, because it reduces the opportunity cost of being unemploye

21、dDisadvantage: The longer a worker is eligible for UI, the longer the duration of the average spell of unemployment.Advantage: By allowing workers more time to search, UI may lead to better matches between jobs and workers, which would lead to greater productivity and higher es.28Structural Unemploy

22、mentStructural unemployment is caused by wage rigidity and job rationingReasons for wage rigidity and job rationingMinimum-wage lawsUnionsEfficiency wages29Unemployment from real wage rigidityslide 30LaborReal wageSupplyDemandUnemploymentRigid real wageAmount of labor willing to workAmount of labor

23、hiredIf the real wage is stuck above the eqm level, then there arent enough jobs to go around.Unemployment from real wage rigidityslide 31If the real wage is stuck above the eqm level, then there arent enough jobs to go around.Then, firms must ration the scarce jobs among workers. Structural unemplo

24、yment: the unemployment resulting from real wage rigidity and job rationing.Minimum-wage LawsWhen the minimum wage is set above the level that balances supply and demand, it creates unemployment.32Unemployment from a Wage Above the Equilibrium Level33Copyright2003 Southwestern/Thomson LearningQuanti

25、ty ofLabor0 Surplus of labor =UnemploymentLaborsupplyLabordemandWageMinimumwageLDLSWELEDiscussion Questionsshould we force firms to raise wages of migrant labor?Child labor34Unions And Collective BargainingA union is a worker association that bargains with employers over wages and working conditions

26、. In the 1940s and 1950s, when unions were at their peak, about a third of the U.S. labor force was unionized.A union is a type of cartel attempting to exert its monopolistic market power.The process by which unions and firms agree on the terms of employment is called collective bargaining.Collectiv

27、e bargaining and strikes makes some workers better off and other workers worse off.35The Theory Of Efficiency WagesEfficiency wages are above-equilibrium wages paid by firms in order to increase worker productivity. A firm may prefer higher than equilibrium wages for the following reasons:Worker Hea

28、lth: Better paid workers eat a better diet and thus are more productive.Worker Turnover: A higher paid worker is less likely to look for another job.Worker Effort: Higher wages motivate workers to put forward their best effort.Worker Quality: Higher wages attract a better pool of workers to apply fo

29、r jobs.36Cyclical UnemploymentCyclical unemployment is the fluctuation in unemployment caused by the business cycle.37Full EmploymentFull employment occurs when there is no cyclical unemployment or, equivalently, when all unemployment is frictional or structural.The unemployment rate at full employment is called the natural rate of unemployment.The natural rate of unemployment is estimated to have been around 6 percent on the average in the United States, but during the 1990s, the natural unemployment rate fell below 6 percent.38Potential GDPPotential GDP is the quan