全球ESG股票策略：超越疫情大流行實(shí)現(xiàn)綠色復(fù)蘇

1、Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250028 Executive Summary 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250027 Key stocks 4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250026 Green Recovery policies and stimulus 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250025 The drivers of Green Stimulus are compelling 6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 The green recovery policy response (so far)

2、 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 Sizing up total Green Stimulus 11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 Energy Transition 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 The impact of COVID-19 18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 Drivers of Energy Decarbonisation 21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Oil & Gas majors: the pivot begins 23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_2500

3、18 Hydrogen 27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Renewable energy 31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 Chemicals 37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Transport and Infrastructure 44 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Transport 45 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Infrastructure 53 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Energy networks 55 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 En

4、ergy efficiency 58 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Buildings 59 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Industrials 65 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Circular economy 72 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 The impact of COVID-19 72 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Circular economy stimulus policies 72 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Thematic drivers 73 HYPER

5、LINK l _TOC_250004 Recent developments 77 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Beneficiaries of green stimulus 78 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Appendix 83 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Uncovered stock exposures to Green Recovery themes 84 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 European O&G: Transition Strategies 89Executive SummaryThe im

6、pact of COVID-19 on economic growth across developed markets this year has been profound with QoQ 2Q GDP declining by 9.8% in the US, 12.1% in the Eurozone and more than 20% in the UK. The pandemic is having a sizeable impact on developing countries too, irrespective of the strong bounce in Chinas 2

7、Q GDP growth of +11.5% QoQ.Governments increasingly realise that the almost US$10tn worth of economic stimulus introduced during the pandemic to date needs to translate into economic recovery programmes in order to allow the global economy to return back to growth and mitigate the longer term impact

8、 of COVID-19. At the same time we note that the need to address longer term climate change challenges has never been higher. Therefore business-as-usual policies, such as those adopted after the Gobal Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-2009, is not an option this time. The need, and argument for, Green

9、Stimulus is profoundly high, in our view.In some of our past ESG work we reviewed the initial economic recovery programmes announced by the EU (e.g. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Green Agenda). This report, however, assesses the impact of COVID-19 recovery from a global perspective. We compile a glo

10、bal dataset of green recovery policies, outline why it makes sense that Green Stimulus forms a substantial and growing part of the announced recovery programmes and analyse which end markets and companies are best positioned to benefit from a Green-Shaped Recovery.How Green are the announced recover

11、y packages?The economic rationale for including green stimulus as part of recovery packages appears strong, in our view. For example, multiplier analysis such as that from Heidi Garett-Peltier suggest that investments in renewable and energy efficiency might be c3x more effective in terms of job cre

12、ation in the construction phase than investments in traditional fossil fuel areas. IRENA estimates that by 2050 the global renewables industry could hold 42mn jobs; nearly four times the current level. Popular (i.e., voter) support for a focus on sustainable recovery programmes provides additional s

13、upport for Green Stimulus in our view: globally 65% of people feel that governments need to prioritise climate change in a post-COVID world.Our analysis in this report finds that total Green Stimulus announced by governments around the world following the COVID crisis has now reached US$1.71tn. Base

14、d on several scenarios that we develop, we believe that government Green Stimulus could reach US$5tn. Furthermore, as this only refers to government spending, or federal in case of the US, we can see a further rise in spending as private and local governments invest alongside governments. Overall, w

15、e find a compelling investment thesis for companies and end-markets exposed to Green Stimulus, with funding acting as a significant catalyst within sustainability themes already benefiting from a long runway of structural, and in some cases, secular tailwinds.Our analysis of confirmed spending plans

16、 to date reveals that the theme of Transport and Infrastructure is the biggest recipient to date (US$308.53bn), with the sub-theme of EVs seeing the biggest policy support globally (US$243.56bn). This is followed by measures to accelerate Energy Transition (US$183.21bn), with the sub-theme of Renewa

17、bles being the largest beneficiary (US$106.02bn). Energy Efficiency and Circular Economy funding pledges have been more modest to date at US$44.74bn and US$12.01bn, respectively, with the latter seeing a lift in funding pre-COVID. Interestingly, we find that US$1.1tn of green funding has yet to be d

18、irected to specific end-markets, portending more positive funding catalysts from here.The energy transitionThe need to decarbonise the global economy is high if climate change targets are to be met. Under its Sustainable Development Scenario, the IEA expects global carbon emissions from the power se

19、ctor to fall by 70% even as electricity generation grows by 46% from 2018 to 2040. This is enabled by wind and solar reaching a combined 40% of the global electricity generation mix by 2040, up from 7% in 2018. The COVID pandemic, however, looks set to result in a 10% decline in renewable investment

20、s this year thereby raising longer term capex targets.Against this background, we review how the energy transition might impact key end markets. Specifically, we highlight beneficiaries in the renewables space (solar, wind and hydrogen) as well as in the chemical space given its position as key supp

21、liers to a range of critical transition related technologies. Finally, we review how the oil majors are positioned vis-vis the energy transition and which of them look better placed at this point.Transport & InfrastructureTo date cUS$309bn of the COVID-related Green Stimulus announced by governments

22、 target the transport and related infrastructure sector. The relevance of this is clear as the transport sector accounts for 55% of global oil consumption and for 22% of global CO2 emissions. The key challenges in addressing this are: (1) changing consumer behaviour into opting for multi- modal and

23、less polluting transport modes (i.e., a move from car usage to public transport, bicycles and walking) and (2) to improve the energy efficiency of existing transport (e.g., fuel efficiency solutions and technologies and a move to electric vehicles).The theme of infrastructure covers four distinct ar

24、eas, in our view. These are power, buildings, transport and communication. The need to electrify the economy, not least through the use of renewable energy generation equipment, means that investments in smart grid electricity infrastructure will be an imperative. We highlight key exposed sub-themes

25、 in the note, including transport energy efficiency, multi-modal, electrification, construction, and energy networks. Furthermore, we see a need for smart-technology-related infrastructure investments too (e.g. smart cities/grids) in order to improve transport energy efficiency.Energy efficiencyWe b

26、elieve that energy efficiency is the cheapest and easiest way to reduce energy demand and CO2 emissions. By 2035E, the IEA estimates that US$550bn will be invested per year in energy efficiency solutions. The focus here is on buildings, accounting for 39% of global GHG emissions by source, and gener

27、al industrial activities, accounting for a further 32% of emissions. Areas set to benefit from a greater focus on building and industry energy efficiency include construction and materials (especially those focused on near-zero buildings), HVAC and lighting, insulation materials and technologies, sm

28、art building solutions, heat transfer, industrial automation and robotics, renewable interconnections, and power distribution and generation.Circular economyThe need for a circular economy model is high in our view and fuelled by the COVID pandemic which has resulted in the temporary closure of wast

29、e and recycling operations in many countries and a slowdown in new capacity investments. The reason the circular economy is a key component of meeting long-term climate change targets is that the energy transition and energy efficiency measures are unlikely to address all emissions. Research from th

30、e Ellen Macarthur Foundation suggests that almost half of the remaining emissions generated by cement, aluminium, plastic and food production can be eliminated by applying circular-economy strategies. Within the plastic exposed supply chain we see a number of key beneficiaries, with a focus on reduc

31、tion, recovery and replacement of plastic products.Key stocksThroughout the report for each of the themes we highlight companies well positioned to benefit from an increase in Green Stimulus and set-out the existing structural drivers that such funding will accelerate. Across the ten sub-themes, we

32、identify a total of 253 stocks under CS coverage globally with positive exposure and a further 147 uncovered stocks with exposure (see Appendix). For balanced exposure across the group of core themes, we screen our Green Stimulus stock universe by an average of 40 for Quality, Momentum and Business

33、Sustainability factor scores and then, for each theme, sort by the largest CS target price upside to identify a short list of our top 40 key Outperform-rated companies (see Figure 2).CompanyThemeTPCS TPUpsideCSRatingMC(US$ bn)P/ESalesEarningsQualityMomentumBusiness Sust-abilityRefinitiv ESG Momentum

34、12MF12MF/5YmedianConsensus 20-22 CAGRPercentile rankOrbia Advance CorpEnergy TransitionMXN5755.5%O3.514.32%7%37%47335221.1%Landis + GyrEnergy TransitionSFr8848.65%O1.917.316%-1%9%5436590.0%Bloom EnergyEnergy TransitionUS$2447.24%O2.2nana26%na2095340.0%TongweiEnergy TransitionRmb3236.40%O14.621.840%2

35、3%26%519038119.2%Johnson MattheyEnergy Transitionp310030.80%O6.014.45%4%16%54245419.1%Longyuan PowerEnergy TransitionHK$730.78%O5.27.0-17%6%11%2666432.1%SiemensEnergy Transition14522.22%O119.318.031%4%19%5474560.1%Murata ManufacturingEnergy Transition760018.75%O38.522.028%8%21%3954513.7%First Gen Co

36、rporationEnergy TransitionP2713.92%O1.87.4-1%9%11%434459naLG Chem Ltd.Energy TransitionW81000013.60%O44.937.1177%18%35%3290480.4%Xinyi Solar HoldingsEnergy TransitionHK$1113.42%O10.119.599%27%25%6687390.0%China RailwayConstruction Corp.Transport & InfraHK$13103.08%O16.53.3-45%10%10%334643-11.3%Renes

37、as ElectronicsTransport & Infra129089.15%O11.029.344%5%44%187950-0.3%China Railway GroupLimitedTransport & InfraHK$774.00%O18.63.7-47%10%11%3547510.0%CIMIC Group LimitedTransport & InfraA$3455.04%O5.010.1-42%0%6%89145918.3%LafargeHolcimTransport & InfraSFr6140.59%O29.414.1-2%5%16%2461544.8%RaytheonT

38、echnologiesTransport & InfraUS$8132.90%O93.117.34%7%34%77175110.2%Dana, Inc.Transport & InfraUS$1829.31%O2.011.246%13%222%6353430.0%MinebeaMitsumiTransport & Infra240028.62%O7.516.034%3%20%237249-5.9%CRHTransport & Infra4126.15%O30.216.17%7%17%266643-1.2%Analog Devices Inc.Transport & InfraUS$15025.

39、10%O44.322.221%nana9684591.8%Lear CorporationTransport & InfraUS$14324.08%O6.912.745%13%128%77735621.8%LG InnotekEnergy EfficiencyW19000027.09%O3.09.2-25%8%15%4080525.4%ChromaEnergy EfficiencyNT$20625.61%O2.319.38%10%19%56375921.3%IBPEnergy EfficiencyUS$11125.44%O2.618.7-1%9%18%82954919.9%SiemensEne

40、rgy Efficiency14522.22%O119.318.031%4%19%5474560.1%STMicroelectronics NVEnergy Efficiency3018.44%O27.324.031%11%44%2083623.7%ElectroluxEnergy EfficiencySkr21515.13%O6.117.327%4%49%3384489.4%TopBuildEnergy EfficiencyUS$17613.95%O5.121.332%7%17%81964842.2%HalmaEnergy Efficiencyp253013.00%O11.239.951%6

41、%9%8131644.6%SikaEnergy EfficiencySFr24012.78%O33.336.855%7%21%66575419.8%Acuity BrandsEnergy EfficiencyUS$12311.66%O4.413.9-13%nana83595838.8%Emerson ElectricEnergy EfficiencyUS$7710.35%O41.720.57%3%9%8077522.4%Schneider ElectricEnergy Efficiency1114.96%O69.422.948%6%20%6244601.0%WestRockCircular E

42、conomyUS$5992.87%O7.912.4-8%nana35605314.6%China EverbrightInternational LtdCircular EconomyHK$982.19%O3.94.5-60%5%11%413754naMondiCircular Economyp185524.87%O11.812.72%3%13%4464521.8%Smurfit KappaCircular Economy3720.45%O8.512.914%3%13%527250naStora EnsoCircular Economy1417.65%O11.117.238%3%38%1466

43、410.0%Crown Holdings Inc.Circular EconomyUS$8411.54%O10.113.35%4%12%6169500.0%Figure 2: Top 40 stock exposures to Green StimulusSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesGreen Recovery policies and stimulusThe COVID-19 crisis has meant that sustaining an effective public-health response remains a

44、 top concern for many policy makers and business executives. Severe job losses and revenue declines, along with economic recession, have compelled policy makers to mount an unprecedented financial response. Estimates of the combined fiscal stimulus already range from US$9tn to US$10tn.However, the r

45、ecovery from COVID-19 coincides with a pivotal time in addressing climate change. A return to business as usual could have a permanent impact on our emissions reduction pathway. As was the case with the global financial crisis, the economic slowdown only temporarily reduced global greenhouse-gas (GH

46、G) emissions in 2009. By 2010, emissions had reached a record high, as governments implemented measures to stimulate economies.The danger now is that the same pattern repeats itself. The period after the COVID-19 crisis could determine whether the world meets or misses the emissions goals of the 201

47、5 Paris Agreement. The stakes could not be higher. An Asian Development Bank (ADB) study shortly before the pandemic projected an average of a 13.6% decrease in per capita GDP driven by climate impacts across Asia Pacific by the mid-century. Another report from the UN puts the economic loss from gro

48、wing disasters (including those triggered by climate change) for the region at $675bn, or around 2.4% of the regions GDP per annum.We believe the thematic of a green recovery offers nations a unique opportunity: green stimulus can align the immediate objective of fiscal recovery plans with the longe

49、r term imperative of tackling the next systemic crisis of climate change. Originally a technical term describing the use of post-disaster reconstruction to increase a countrys resilience and stimulate growth, the concept of build back better is being embraced by business and policy leaders to create

50、 a more sustainable post-pandemic world.The drivers of Green Stimulus are compellingHighly effective at boosting growth: The multiplier of infrastructure investment is 1.7x in a recession (using a composite of six studies from the IMF). It is a very effective way of stimulating growth, whereas a pro

51、portion of tax cuts is used for savings and therefore suffers fiscal leakage. Effective fiscal policy is especially important when there is no opportunity to cut rates any further (real rates in a recession have historically fallen by c5%).With higher multiplier effects in developing nations: Green

52、stimulus is also a natural place to focus recovery efforts in developing nations. According to the World Bank, low- and middle-income countries alone could see a return of $4 for every $1 invested from investing in infrastructure that prioritises future-focused resilience. In China, every $1 bn of p

53、ublic green investment is expected to increase household consumption by $61 mn and tax revenues by $10 mn, with 42,000 new jobs created (UNEP 2009). In developing economies, every $1 invested in improving the energy efficiency of electricity generation saves more than $3 in operating costs (ESCAP).L

54、inked to productivity enhancement: It has been estimated that every $1bn invested in energy efficiency in the US could eventually generate cost savings of $450 mn per year, reduce annual GHG emissions by 592,600 tonnes, and lead to approximately 30,000 job- yearsa 20% increase in job creation over m

55、ore traditional fiscal stimulus measures such as income tax cuts or road building (Houser et al. 2008).Can reduce government debt: McKinsey points out that the RoE on road improvement is 20%. This is nearly 30 x higher than the cost of government debt. It would be possible to fund (via PFI) the buil

56、ding of a bridge and thereafter fund it with CPI minus 40 bp (i.e. the current US TIPS yield) over the lifetime of the project, reducing net government debt.Rest of the worldFigure 3: Green stimulus optionsconstruction and manufacturing jobs created per US$1mn capexFigure 4: Green stimulus optionsco

57、nstruction and manufacturing jobs created per US$1mn capexIndustry efficiency Efficient new buildings Buidling efficiency retrofitsHigh-speed rail Urban transport infra Reduce methane emissionsCCUSHydrogen production Unabated gas-fired power Unabated coal-fired powerSolar PV Wind power New nuclear N

58、ew hydro Existing grids New grids05101520Recycling Clean cookingBiofuels Batteries Appliances New vehicles Recycling Biofuels Batteries AppliancesNew vehiclesAdvanced economies01020304050InnovationFuelsIndustryBuildingsTransportConstructionManufacturingTotalSource: IEA, IMF, Credit SuisseSource: IEA

59、, IMF, Credit SuisseA jobs creator: IRENA estimates that by 2050 the renewables industry could hold 42 mn jobs; nearly four times the current level (Figure 43). In such a scenario jobs from the fossil fuel sectors would decline to 22mn by 2050, nearly 30% lower than 2017 levels. A report from BOEM (

60、in cooperation with NREL) found that in the Gulf of Mexico, an offshore wind farm (600MW commissioned in 2030) would create nearly 4,500 jobs and 150 ongoing jobs during operationin comparison, an IMF working paper estimates that the long-run job creation from an additional rig-count in the US is 22