脆弱的地球：低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的政 治和經(jīng)濟(jì)

1、Climate ChangeGlobalBy: Ashim Paun, Lucy Acton, Amit Shrivastava, James Pomeroy and Tarek SolimanApril 2019 HYPERLINK / Fragile PlanetThe politics and economics of the low-carbon transitionAs the world strives to cut greenhouse gas emissions to combat global warmingWe rank 67 countries with the poli

2、cies, institutions and economic potential to decarboniseWe present the Climate Leaders Group of Seven Nations (the C-7), headed by Germany and Sweden, and also the EM-Leaders, including ChinaPlay interview with Ashim PaunDisclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the

3、 analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Figure 1.HSBC 2019 C-7 (Climate Seven Group of Countries) + top 3 EM countries1st Germany2nd Sweden36% emissions decline since1979 peak1st place for policy outlook and 2nd for potential to respond2nd

4、place for greenopportunitiesOver 60% of primary energymix cleanTargeting zero net emissions by 2045Lowest emissions pc of C7Group6th United States7th United KingdomRecent growth in use ofrenewablesNon-state actors pushingforward with climate plans3rd place for green opportunitiesAccelerated emission

5、s declinesover the past decade75% reduction in coal use in primary energy mix between 2012 and 2017Long term aim of at least 80% emissions reduction by 2050 (vs 1990)3rd AustriaHydro power 25% of primaryenergy mixStrong policy outlook andpotential to respond5th place for greenopportunitiesEM 1stCzec

6、h Republic (13th overall)Declining emissions followingeconomic reformPolicies to further improveenergy efficiencyHighest ranking EM state onclimate policy supportFranceEM 2nd China (14th overall)2nd lowest emissions pc of C7 1st place for green opportunitiesGroup Pledge to reach peak emissionsNuclea

7、r 48% of primary energyaround 2030mix Targeted 60-65% fall in carbonLong term target of carbon neutrality by 2050intensity of GDP by 2030 (vs2005)4th5th Denmark 47% fall in emissions since 1996 peakEM 3rd Korea (15th overall) Highest ranking EM state for potential to respond Significant energy effic

8、iency improvements since 1970s High share of nuclear in primaryenergy mix Source: HSBC High use of renewables andnatural gasInnovative economy alignedwith future green opportunitiesContents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Executive Summary3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Energy, carbon and the macro HYPERLINK l _boo

9、kmark1 economy8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Carbon intensity9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Fossil fuel dependence11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Policy and institutions21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Potential to respond to climate risks 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Decarbonisation policy outlook24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Cli

10、mate opportunities31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Climate change revenues32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Green Complexity Potential34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Final rankings38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Tear sheets / country profiles40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Germany41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Sweden43 HYPERLINK l _

11、bookmark14 Austria45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 France47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Denmark49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 United States51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 United Kingdom53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 EM - 1. Czech Republic (13 overall) 55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 EM - 2. China (14 overall)57 HYPERLINK l _bo

12、okmark21 EM - 3. Korea (15 overall)59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Related reports61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Appendix62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Disclosure appendix66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Disclaimer68We acknowledge the contribution of Abhishek Kumar, Climate Change Analyst, Bangalore, in the preparatio

13、n of this reportExecutive SummaryThe world faces climate risks and must decarboniseSome countries are better equipped, politically and economicallyOur multi-factor analysis of 67 countries identifies the global leaders across developed and emerging marketsParis Agreement creates risks for countries,

14、 but also opportunitiesAn evolving series of frameworks for climate analysisIdentifying the leadersThe 2015 Paris Agreement has focussed global attention on the need for countries to address climate change risks. But not all countries are equal, in terms of either their ambition or ability to achiev

15、e economies which are low-carbon and aligned with greenhouse gas emissions trajectories which scientists say are necessary to limit warming to 2C, the most widely-adopted maximum warming target for 2100. The associated transition in national energy systems and broader economies to a low-carbon world

16、 will present risks, but also opportunities.This report is the latest in our Fragile Planet series1, and a collaboration between our analysts from across climate change, economics and equities. In our first main report, HYPERLINK /R/10/NWFgvbMNB0ND Fragile Planet HYPERLINK /R/10/NWFgvbMNB0ND Scoring

17、 climate risks around the world, 19 March 2018 we set out a broad framework for understanding national level climate vulnerability, with metrics covering physical risks, socio- economic impacts, energy transition indicators and the potential of countries to respond to climate risks. We followed this

18、 with HYPERLINK /R/10/PpSRNdFNB0ND Fragile planet Commodities: From climate risks to HYPERLINK /R/10/PpSRNdFNB0ND agriculture, July 2018, in which we developed a method for analysing risks to agro-commodities, commodity markets and national economies dependent on agriculture.We start this report wit

19、h a question:Which countries have the political economy the policy, government and institutions, economic diversity and energy resources to give them a competitive advantage as the world progresses with a low-carbon transition?We answer this question through analysis of 67 countries in the MSCI deve

20、loped, emerging and frontier market categories2, covering 80% of the worlds population and 94% of GDP. Our overall rankings are as per Table 23.We conclude this report with tear-sheets for each of the seven countries which are best placed for the low-carbon transition we call these the HSBC Climate-

21、Seven Group of Countries or C-7, led by Germany. European states dominate the higher rankings, with the US in 6th, and MENA and other hydrocarbon economies prevalent at the bottom of the table. Figure 1 shows which countries form the C-7, and also the three best-placed EM states in our analysis. The

22、se tear-sheets include details on the seven countries energy systems, economic structure and emissions trajectory, as well as tables of policies designed to lower carbon. These leading countries underly the stocks identified in HYPERLINK /R/20/wSqVzh7 Fragile Planet - Opportunities across 10 leading

23、 HYPERLINK /R/20/wSqVzh7 climate nations, 10 April 2019 here, we use our proprietary HYPERLINK /R/20/KrqWFj9 Climate Solutions Database to pull together screens of companies which generate at least 10% revenue from climate themes4.see page 7 for full listOur analysis of MSCI developed, emerging and

24、frontier market categories excludes Hong Kong and Taiwan. 3 Scores are given to indicators between 1 and 10, according to positioning amongst the 67 countries, and then aggregated as per weightings to arrive at a final score.4 NB in HYPERLINK /R/20/wSqVzh7 Fragile Planet - Opportunities across 10 le

25、ading climate nations, 10 April 2019, we create a screen for India instead of the Czech Republic although India came through much lower in our rankings, it is the highest placed EM with over two companies in our Climate Solutions Database (it has eight), while there is only one Czech company in our

26、databaseRIOur findings are based on an analysis of the following five areas, as per Figure 2, incorporating29 indicators (captured in Table 1).Energy, carbon and the macro economyCarbon intensity: How embedded are fossil fuels? We measure the carbon intensity of a country per its domestic economic a

27、ctivity and per capita levels, as well as the extent to which it is moving towards clean energy.Fossil fuel dependence: To what extent is a countrys economy dependent on fossil fuels? Here, we look at shares of GDP and exports coming from fossil fuel based activity and how these shares have changed

28、over time. We also factor in oil and gas reserve sizes and average lifecycle production costs, acknowledging that low-cost producers are more likely to generate potential in a 2C-aligned world, given fossil fuels will still be used in harder-to-decarbonise sectors, such as shipping, aviation and pet

29、rochemicals.Policy and institutional qualityPotential to respond to climate risks: We consider financial resources and institutional quality metrics which we believe can guide how prudently a country may use its wealth in relation to its long-term sustainable development, including mitigation of cli

30、mate change.Decarbonisation policy outlook: Next, we look forward in an attempt to understand how countries are placed to address climate change. To understand this, first we consider pledges made towards achieving Paris Agreement goals. We also score for any longer- term emissions reduction pledges

31、 as well as the existence of carbon pricing policies. Third, we also include a World Bank metric relating to government effectiveness.Carbonintensity15%Corporate climate revenues and clean-tech relevant industries35%Fossil fuel dependence20%Potential toDecarbonisationrespondpolicy outlook15%15%Figur

32、e 2: The political economy of the low-carbon transition key factors Source: HSBC Climate opportunitiesCorporate climate revenues and clean-tech relevant industries: Our fifth category for understanding country-level risk exposure to the low-carbon transition considers the opportunity set. Those coun

33、tries which can sell the products and technologies which will drive the low-carbon transition will be more resilient as they generate associated revenues, in our opinion. Here, we begin by analysing a large data set from HSBCs Climate Solutions Database. This database records corporate revenues agai

34、nst 21 headline climate themes, across areas including low-carbon energy, transport and buildings efficiency, water and battery storage. We look at how much climate-related revenue is being earned by companies incorporated in each of the countries in our study.Finally, looking forward, we consider G

35、reen Complexity Potential - a metric from the University of Oxford Institute for New Economic Thinking. This considers path dependency of industrial development enabling us to build in a consideration of which countries are more likely to be able to make the products the world needs for the low-carb

36、on transition, given what they produce today.The following three sections of this report cover each of these headline areas in turn. Table 1 captures the full range of indicators we look at in seeking to understand the political economy of the low-carbon transition. Decisions around appropriate weig

37、htings followed discussions amongst the authors at the HSBC Climate Change Centre of Excellence.We believe it is important for investors to understand which countries are best-placed for the low-carbon transition. The economic outlook over the next few years may create challenges in terms of climate

38、 transition. Our economics team expects global growth to continue to be just shy of 3% per year over the next decade with much of this growth (70%) to come from the emerging world. These parts of the world are getting steadily wealthier, causing changes in individuals consumption patterns: more towa

39、rds car ownership, air travel and energy consumption more broadly. Across the emerging world we expect millions of people to move to cities over the next decade and even more to rise to middle class status.As the world addresses climate change risks - decarbonising and reducing use of fossil fuels -

40、 we think some countries will have a competitive advantageTrade still risingThis growth will likely increase global trade volumes at a steady basis, with more trade taking place between emerging markets. For all of the concerns surrounding trade protectionism in recent years, many parts of the world

41、 have been signing multilateral trade agreements which will help to lift trade flows. Unless trade policy turns even more protectionist, global trade volumes should keep increasing.This continued expansion in energy demand, consumption and urban populations means that the need to transition to a low

42、er-carbon energy mix will only get more pressing. And as the world addresses climate change risks by decarbonising human activities and reducing use of fossil fuels, we think some countries will have a competitive advantage. We believe those with the policies, institutional quality, economic diversi

43、ty and low-cost energy resources, will have lower cost burdens in achieving 2C-aligned economies and enjoy revenue benefits associated with driving the world down this pathway.Table 1: Political economy of the low-carbon transitionIndicatorsWeightSection weightData sourceEnergy, carbon and the macro

44、 economyCarbon intensity151. Share of alternative energy20World Bank2. Change in alternative energy103. Emissions* per capita20PRIMAP, World Bank4. Change in emissions* per capita105. Emissions* per GDP20PRIMAP, World Bank6. Change in emissions* per GDP107. Other GHG emissions, including LULUCF per

45、capita10PRIMAP, World BankTOTAL100Fossil fuel dependence208. Fossil revenue as a share of GDP30World Bank9. Change in fossil revenue1010. Share of fossils in exports30World Bank11. Change in fossils in exports1012. Fossil reserves to breakeven ratio (R/B 2030)20Rystad EnergyTOTAL100Policy & Institut

46、ional qualityDecarbonisation policy outlook1513. Emissions reduction policy70UNFCCC14. Government effectiveness30World BankTOTAL100Potential to respond1515. GDP per capita15World Bank16. Public debt burden (% GDP)15World Bank17. Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) per capita5SWF Institute18. Equity risk pre

47、mium15NYU19. Income inequality (GINI)12.5World Bank20. Tertiary education enrolment12.5UNESCO21. Control of corruption12.5World Bank22. Rule of law12.5World BankTOTAL100Climate opportunitiesCorporate climate revenues and clean-tech relevant industries35Climate revenues:HSBC23. Absolute level1024. Re

48、lative to GDP1025. Change in absolute level1026. Change in level relative to GDP1027. Momentum of absolute revenues1028. Momentum of revenues relative to GDP1029. Green Complexity Potential40University of Oxford INETTOTAL100OVERALL TOTAL100Source: HSBC. *These emissions are ex LULUCF. Note: Carbon i

49、ntensity includes other greenhouse gases.Table 2: Which countries have the political economy to navigate the low-carbon transition? (Rank 1 is best placed)RankCountryMarketsOverall score Country rankings CarbonFossil fuelPolicyPotential toEconomicintensity dependenceoutlookrespondopportunityWeight15

50、%20%15%15%35%1GermanyDM7.5261811222SwedenDM7.47397643AustriaDM7.21232101154FranceDM7.2120224105DenmarkDM7.094684126United StatesDM7.02220141937United KingdomDM6.76241122148SpainDM6.7327193299SwitzerlandDM6.6253382110PortugalDM6.517331535711FinlandDM6.51435552612ItalyDM6.510132044813Czech RepublicEM6

51、.5114412151314ChinaEM6.44553443115KoreaEM6.344123091116New ZealandDM6.323281323217CanadaDM6.329259142518NetherlandsDM6apanDM5.949921281720NorwayDM5.91458414721IrelandDM5.8205216103422TurkeyEM5.821175542623SingaporeDM5.7602924161524BelgiumDM5.7194817173625HungaryEM5.6134129361826GreeceEM

52、5.6182622472427PolandEM5.5373627271928CroatiaFM5.484028373029RomaniaFM5.444935402030LithuaniaFM5.3425426302131AustraliaDM5.333602334232IsraelDM5.2251544313533IndiaEM5.1411039562134SloveniaFM5.153618255435EstoniaFM5.0596525132736ChileEM5.0281540234437ThailandEM4.9532252451638MauritiusFM4.758831414139

53、PhilippinesEM4.6241047533940MexicoEM4.6433132583841JordanFM4.532254514342BrazilEM4.5405037613343IndonesiaEM4.4524246493144EgyptEM4.238767643745ArgentinaFM4.2511445464646VietnamFM4.1573857552847MalaysiaEM4.1555141394548RussiaEM4.1545633344849Sri LankaFM4.1162350634850South AfricaEM4.0566436544051Keny

54、aFM3.927163675152United Arab EmiratesEM3.8614451185253PakistanEM3.839662665054QatarEM3.5625956215355MoroccoFM3.535443606056LebanonFM3.447361655757TunisiaFM3.3461948575958OmanFM3.2666253295559SerbiaFM3.1484738486160PeruEM3.1363049506361Saudi ArabiaEM3.0655759205862ColombiaEM3.0306758525663KazakhstanF

55、M2.6636142336564BangladeshFM2.4503364596465NigeriaFM2.2315565626766BahrainFM2.1676660386167KuwaitFM2.16463662666Source: HSBCEnergy, carbon and the macro economySome economies are less carbon-intensive or are decarbonising faster than othersWe analyse economic and demographic carbon intensity and cle

56、an energy in countries - France, Switzerland and Spain leadFossils in GDP and exports, plus viability of reserves in a low carbon world are also covered - Kenya, Jordan and Lebanon come topGlobal warming targetsGreenhouse gas emissionsTo limit global warming, the world must lower its greenhouse gas

57、emissions. All 197 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have either signed or ratified the Paris Agreement. The most important goal of the Paris Agreement, in our view, is to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2C above preindustrial

58、 levels (in 2100) and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve these goals, virtually all countries around the world will need to remove carbon and other GHGs from their energy systems and broader economies.All countries consume energy, for

59、use in homes, services, industry and transport. A high proportion of energy consumed over 85% comes from burning fossil fuels.Around 70% of GHGs come from burning fossil fuels (Figure 4, page 12) for energy; in terms of which sectors using fossils generate emissions, the power generation sector is h

60、ighest, mostly via coal and gas use, followed by the transport sector as the next highest emitter, almost entirely via oil.And meanwhile, GHGs are still rising, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting that 2018 CO2 emissions were the highest yet (Chart 1 shows annual GHGs since 1850).In