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1、10 December 2019AsiaEQUITIESGlobal commercial vessel shipbuilding(US$ bn)160Asia shipbuildingWhere we stand in the cycle 2020 outlook14012010080604020010590133114903779Key points Demand for energy products, tankers and gas carriers remains solid. Shipbuilding fundamentals are supported by 1) US ener

2、gy product export,2) industry consolidation, and 3) IMO regulations. We are positive on Korean shipbuilders and KSOE is our top pick. In shipping, we are positive about tanker-leveraged MISC.7067 65 7156201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022ESource: Clarksons, Company data, Macquarie Re

3、search, December 2019Global newbuild demand by product, 2019/20 vs 2017-18 average(mn. CGT)Global shipbuilding demand hits a plateau as industry matures and seaborne trade growth multiplier (to GDP) slows down on various factors, including trade protectionism. However, there still are winners. While

4、 bulker and container demand has been more L-shaped over time, demand for energy products has108-15%6420-42%-1%+47%been strong. We prefer Koreans among our Asian shipbuilders for their exposure to these products. Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (KSOE) is our top pick. We remain positive on

5、 MISC for its exposure to the tanker market.US energy product export: demand-sideShipbuilding demand is expected to stabilize at around US$70bn in the next three years, up from US$56bn in 2019, driven by energy product demand requiringTankerBulkerContainerLNGC2017-18 average2019E2020ESource: Clarkso

6、ns, Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2019InsideWhere we stand in the cycle 2020 outlook 2 Energy products outshine in slowly recovering market4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Industry consolidation11Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Samsung Heavy Indu

7、stries (010140 KS)19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (010620 KS)23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Daewoo Shipbuilding (042660 KS)27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 MISC (MISC MK)34AnalystsMacquarie Securities Korea LimitedJames Hong +82 2 3705 8661 H

8、YPERLINK mailto:james.hong james.hongKeeryung Kim +82 2 3705 8659 HYPERLINK mailto:keeryung.kim keeryung.kimMacquarie Capital Securities (Japan) LimitedKunio Sakaida +81 3 3512 7873 HYPERLINK mailto:kunio.sakaida kunio.sakaidaTomoki Takeshima +81 3 3512 7432 HYPERLINK mailto:tomoki.takeshima tomoki.

9、takeshimaMacquarie Capital Securities (Singapore) Pte. LimitedZhiwei Foo +65 6601 0465 HYPERLINK mailto:zhiwei.foo zhiwei.fooMacquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.Ben Shane Lim +60 3 2059 8868 HYPERLINK mailto:benshane.lim benshane.limtankers (both crude carriers and product carriers) and

10、 gas carriers (LNG carriers and LPG carriers). A structural shift to cleaner fuel (gas for power generation, replacing coal, and low sulphur fuel oil or LSFO for marine transportation) should lead the demand recovery, fuelled by extension of shipping distance from US energy exports. Shipping distanc

11、e of US-Asia seaborne trade is 40% longer than for Middle East-Asia, a conventional shipping route for crude and LNG. We expect demand for tankers and gas carriers, which are key products of Korean shipbuilders, to remain strong, while bulker and container ship demand rebounds albeit at a low level.

12、Industry consolidation: supply-sideGlobal shipbuilding capacity experienced a 35% of capacity cut during 2012-18, driven by capacity cuts in China (-43%), Korea (-31%) and Japan (-28%). The industry is entering a consolidation phase as the announcement of a potential merger between KSOE and Daewoo S

13、hipbuilding (DSME) triggers consolidation of shipyards within China and Japan. The two largest shipbuilders in China and Japan have merged and formed an alliance recently. Industry consolidation should be positive for shipbuilders profitability as the industry shifts to a more balanced supply/demand

14、 situation.IMO compliance: additional tailwindWe expect 2020 to be a tight year for most segments, especially tankers. Scrubber retrofitting should limit active fleet growth, leading to more balanced supply/demand in various segments in shipping. Demand for LSFO should lead to a better supply/demand

15、 situation in tankers, both crude and product carriers, in 2020. Crude carrier demand should grow to 5.4% in 2020, up from 2.3% this year, thanks to refinery dislocation. Product tanker demand should grow to 6.5% in 2020, up from 3.0% in 2019, fuelled by tonnage growth. Ongoing carbon emission regul

16、ation should drive adoption of new propulsion technology. Tankers vessel design limits energy efficiency improvement, thus prompting the search for different propulsion technology. Demand for LNG dual-fuel is increasing (Asia shipbuilding IMO compliance, beyond global Sulphur cap, 9 September 2019).

17、Please refer to page 46 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /research/disclosures /research/disclosures.Where we stand in the cycle 2020 outlookFig 1 Global commercial vessel shipbuilding market to stabilize at US$70bn pa higher than 2019 but lower than 2

18、011-15 average of US$106bnFig 2 Newbuild orders LNG carriers remain the brightest spot, other products to rebound with tankers being strongest albeit lower than 2017-18 average133114105909079706768725537(US$ bn) 16014012010080604020201 10(mn. CGT)-42%-15%-1%+47%109876543210TankerBulkerContainerLNGC2

19、01 22013201 4201 52016201 7201 8201 9E202 0E202 1E202 2E201 7-18 average201 9E202 0ESource: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Fig 3 Global order backlog vs. newbuild price index NB price rebounds ahead of recovery of backlog, industry co

20、nsolidation adds tailwindFig 4 Newbuild price index change vs. heavy plate price change (YoY) NB price was more resilient than heavy plate price, better margin for shipbuilders(mn. CGT) 1801601401201008060201 140(NB index)145140135130125202 0E202 1E202 2E120201940%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%(newbuild price

21、index change, Y oY )y = 0.3395x - 0.0084 R = 0.3871201 2201 3201 42015201 62017201 8201 9EGlo bal commercial vessel orde r b acklog Newbuild price index (RHS )Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019-30%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%(heav y plate price change, Y oY )Source: Clarksons, Bloomberg, St

22、eeldaily, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Fig 5 Global shipbuilding capacity Further capacity cut expected in industry consolidation, KSOE-DSME in Korea, CSSC-CSIC in China, and Imabari-JMU in JapanFig 6 Market share trend in newbuild orders by builder country Pick-up in LNGC and tightening carbon

23、 emission regulation support Koreans market share gain1199178881615877151514111111262320171616141313(mn. CGT) 706050403020100(M/S in CGT ) 60%50%40%30%20%10%200 0200 1200 2200 3200 4200 5200 6200 7200 8200 9201 0201 1201 2201 3201 4201 5201 6201 7201 810M190%201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8

24、 201 9E 202 0EChinaKor eaJapanEur opeOthersKor eaJapanChinaSource: Clakrsons, Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2019Source: Clakrsons, Company data, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Fig 7 Major shipbuilders in Asia Outstanding order backlog and product mix (ranked by order backlog size by

25、country)Backlog (k CGT)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%9,8445,7704,55111,1321,9975,499380300231221270210KSOESHIDSMECSGYZJImabari-JMUMitsuiE&SKawasaki Sumitomo MitsubishiSMMKEPTankerBulkerContainer shipGas carriers (LNGC/LPGC)LNG bunkeringOffshore and othersSource: Company data, Clarksons, Macquarie

26、 Research, December 2019Fig 8 Asia Shipbuilders Peer valuationCPTP Marketcap PER (x) P/BV (x) EPSg (%) ROE (%) EV/EBITDA Div.yield(%)CompanyTickerRatingAnalyst(LC)(LC)(US$m)19E20E19E20E19E20E 19E20E19E20E19E20EKorea Shipbuilding & Offshore EngineeringSamsung Heavy Industries009540 KS010140 KSOPOPJam

27、es HongJames Hong121,0006,940156,0009,0007.23.726.0nmf17.623.50.70.80.70.8nmfnmf49.92.8nmf -16.54.03.413.2nmf9.513.40.80.01.50.0Hyundai Mipo Dockyard010620 KSOPJames Hong43,80053,0001.516.814.10.70.724.319.84.55.17.87.02.73.1Daewoo Shipbuilding042660 KSUPJames Hong26,20020,0002.4nmfnmf0.70.7nmfnmf 0

28、.2-4.815.4nmf0.00.0KeppelKEP SPNZhiwei Foo6.727.259.021.615.01.11.022.843.75.07.015.414.23.33.7Sembcorp MarineSMM SPNZhiwei Foo1.261.301.9nmfnmf1.21.2-65.383.5 -3.2-0.532.724.70.00.0Sumitomo Heavy Industries6302 JPOPKunio Sakaida3,1753,9003.63.08.60.80.8-17.26.89.19.13.93.63.53.5Mitsui E&S Holdings7

29、003 JPOPKunio Sakaida9641,6000.74.84.00.50.4nmf19.1 10.111.19.06.40.00.0Mitsubishi Heavy Industries7011 JPNKunio Sakaida4,2814,50013.313.612.11.00.94.212.97.27.85.24.93.53.5Kawasaki Heavy Industries7012 JPNKunio Sakaida2,5272,7003.95.010.60.80.839.14.27.87.75.95.32.72.8China Shipbuilding Industry Co

30、mpanyYangzijiang Shipbuilding601989 CHYZJSGD SPNRNRNANA5.251.09NANA17.13.190.56.779.57.31.40.71.40.793.3-8.413.81.5-7.0 11.01.69.442.41.640.01.70.34.30.34.1China CSSC Holdings600150 CHNRNA20.63NA4.065.555.21.91.6-10.018.73.52.623.418.50.10.1CSSC Offshore & MarineEngineering600685 CH NRNA14.46NA2.123

31、.470.22.22.1 146.8 -66.77.23.051.232.30.20.2Average25.226.51.01.0 23.0 16.63.64.817.514.01.51.6Source: Company data, Bloomberg consensus or not rated names, Macquarie Research, December 2019; price as of close on 9 December 2019Looking back at 2019demolition activities have been slower than we previ

32、ously anticipated on strong timecharter (especially in tanker)Heading into 2020LNG carrier remains the brightest spot with mega projects in Qatar and Mozambique in addition to USOther products should rebound YoY with tanker being strongest, supported by ton-mileeffect and IMO regulationsEnergy produ

33、cts outshine in slowly recovering marketLNG carriers remain the brightest spot; other products to rebound with tanker being strongest, albeit lower than 2017-18 averageNewbuild: steady recovery aheadNewbuild activities are broadly in line with our previous expectations. The only exception is bulker,

34、 where we see slow newbuild activities, following ongoing uncertainties around US-China trade. We are lowering our newbuild demand forecast for tankers in 2020, reflecting slow economic activities in emerging markets such as China and India, but the recovery trend should continue.Fig 9 Newbuild acti

35、vities by vessel type10M192019E2020EChanges(k CGT)OldNewOldNew2019E2020ETanker3,7634,0004,0007,0006,0000.0%-14.3%Bulker3,5155,0004,2005,4005,400-16.0%0.0%Container ship2,6754,0004,0005,0005,0000.0%0.0%LNG carrier3,1565,2005,2005,2005,2000.0%0.0%LPG carrier7188008508008006.3%0.0%Source: Company data,

36、 Macquarie Research, November 2019Fig 10 Global commercial vessel shipbuilding demandFig 11 Clarkson newbuild index(US$ bn) 16014012010080604020201 10(index) 145140135130125120201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9Clarkso ns NB Ind exNB Ind ex (Won te rm, RHS)(index) 25024023022021020

37、0201 2201 3201 4201 5201620172018201 9E202 0E202 1E202 2E190Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Fig 12 Backlog-to-fleet by vessel typeFig 13 15+ years fleet ratio by vessel type(backlog-to-f leet)40%(% of total f leet)30%30%20%25%2

38、0%15%10%0%LNG ca rrier Conatiner ship LPG carrie rTankerBulker10%5%0%LPG carrie rLNG ca rrierBulkerTankerContainer shipCurren t backl og-to-fl eetAverag e b acklog -to- flee t (exclu ding GFC)15year+ flee t ratioSource: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Researc

39、h, December 2019 Demolition: rising fuel cost to accelerate scrapping of aged vesselsDemolition activities have been slower than we previously anticipated due to supportive timecharter rates, except for container ships. IMO Sulphur cap-led retrofitting activities led to tightening supply-demand in m

40、ost vessel types, especially tankers, leading to muted demolition activities. We expect this trend to reverse in 2020, once rising fuel cost on using LSFO hurts economics of aged vessels.Fig 14 Demolition activities by vessel type10M192019E2020EChangesOldNewOldNew2019E2020ETanker (mn DWT)3.010.14.13

41、.66.9-59%92%Bulker (mn DWT)6.09.78.07.28.0-18%11%Container (k TEU)161.9178.6190.5194.2247.77%28%LPG carrier (k cbm)94.9184.8138.6113.8138.6-25%22%LNG carrier (k cbm)255.4524.1288.2306.5230.6-45%-25%Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, November 2019Tanker: Positive on both crude carriers and pro

42、duct carriers (refined oil products)As seen in 2016-2017, US crude exports can drive longer shipping distance in the global seaborne crude trade and are supportive of newbuild demand going forward. US crude exports should grow from sub-3m bpd today to up to 8m bpd with increased export terminal capa

43、city by end-2020 (Global oil Corpus Christi tested as a crude export hub, 7 June 2019). This growth should require nearly 100 x VLCCs (assuming they take market share from Middle East exports in a flattish market), or 30,000k DWT.Crude carrier newbuild deliveries are peaking in 2019 with 83x VLCC eq

44、uivalents (2 Suezmax = 1 VLCC), 66x VLCCs and 35x Suezmax. Growing US crude exports in the next two years should provide 50 units annualized of VLCC newbuilds under a zero tonnage growth assumption, given the current outstanding crude carrier fleet is 1,062x VLCC equivalent. The US is expected to dr

45、ive close to 10% of demand growth over the next two years, or 5% pa In addition; we expect 1% YoY global seaborne crude oil trade growth (tonnage) this year, followed by long-term growth of 2% CAGR.We are keeping our bullish view on product carriers (Asia shipbuilding Product carrier market bottomin

46、g, 16 November 2018) on IMO2020-led demand for LSFO. However, recovery has been milder than we anticipated. A one-year timecharter of a medium range (MR) product carrier remains at an elevated level, and yet newbuild demand is slow at 49 MR product carriers in 11M19 (vs. Macquarie forecast of 79 uni

47、ts). Scrappage of aged fleet (20% of outstanding fleet is more than 15 years old) has been much slower than we expected as shipowners try to leverage timecharter recovery. Slow newbuild orders placed in 2019 should lead to further tightening of the market in 2020/21.Fig 15 Tanker Positive on both cr

48、ude carrier and product carrier(k DWT)201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022ENewbuild orders11,94013,97637,42828,18952,76712,55834,53026,69615,48323,22721,29127,099Delivery40,07032,46121,47516,45219,16332,95638,00729,03340,53726,78922,99023,291Order backlog127,60385,91761,26967,41272,66

49、6103,75673,89974,05649,00145,43943,74047,547Demolition9,62011,64010,9607,6702,3602,52011,12020,2804,0566,8956,8956,895Global fleet (EOY)448,660474,500 492,550 500,820 507,720 538,156 565,043573,797 610,278 630,171 646,266 662,662Newbuild order growth (%)-67.8%17.1%167.8%-24.7%87.2%-76.2%175.0%-22.7%

50、-42.0%50.0%-8.3%27.3%Demolition growth (%)-25.1%21.0%-5.8%-30.0%-69.2%6.8%341.3%82.4%-80.0%70.0%0.0%0.0%Global fleet growth (%)3.9%5.8%3.8%1.7%1.4%6.0%5.0%1.5%6.4%3.3%2.6%2.5%Order backlog-to-fleet (%)28.4%18.1%12.4%13.5%14.3%19.3%13.1%12.9%8.0%7.2%6.8%7.2%Global seaborne crude trade growth (%)0.8%4

51、.4%-2.7%-0.5%2.0%6.2%5.7%2.8%0.8%2.8%2.8%1.4%Global seaborne oil products trade growth (%)2.0%0.4%2.5%0.8%6.8%4.0%0.9%1.6%3.1%6.0%4.5%3.0%Source: Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019Fig 16 Seaborne crude trade growth distance, on market share gain of US exports, drives overall trade growthFi

52、g 17 Seaborne oil product trade growth tonnage, thanks to LSFO adoption, drives overall trade growth(Y oY ) 6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9E202 0E202 1E202 2ETonnag e g rowthDistance growth(Y oY ) 8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6

53、201 7 201 8 201 9E202 0E202 1E202 2ETonnag e g rowthDistance growthSource: EIA, Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019Source: EIA, Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019 Fig 18 Product carrier large deficit from 2021(units, MR equivalent)201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022ESupply (ne

54、t)123162187118601447843-35Delivery137184206174112185115802- MR99117102644910180322- LR14216181313610- LR213273132162510200Scrappage142219565241373737- MR81817353535353535- LR1321542111- LR2000541000Demand3619113153103104231145145Seaborne oil products trade growth (%)1.1%6.1%4.2%1.6%3.0%3.0%6.5%4.1%4

55、.1%Yearly net surplus/deficit87-295665-4340-153-102-180Cumulative surplus/deficit875811417913617623-79-2591-year timecharter (US$/day, Eco MR) 16,483 18,947 15,590 13,849 14,565 16,349 Source: Company data, Clarksons, Macquarie Research, December 2019Bulker: Mild bulk trade growth ahead, under-inves

56、tment since 2015 supports shipping rateMacquarie expects crude steel production in China to grow 1.6%/-0.6% YoY in 2020/21, slowing from 5.2% YoY in 2019. Seaborne iron ore and metallurgical coal demand should grow by 3.0% and 1.8% YoY in 2020, up from -1.2%/0.6% YoY in 2019. Overall, we assume 2.0%

57、 pa of dry bulk trade growth over next three years.Due to slow newbuild activities since 2015, we expect sequential recovery in shipping rate (which in turn slows down demolition activities). Shipping rate, BDI, should remain stable at the current level. We forecast stable newbuild order flow.Fig 19

58、 Bulker Mild bulk trade growth ahead, under-investment since 2015 supports shipping rate(k DWT)201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021E2022ENewbuild orders41,65924,352103,22163,90331,90510,49543,54343,44217,92723,06522,20925,634Delivery100,270100,38863,03948,39549,20447,25138,44228,47443,2015

59、2,21622,64228,000Order backlog305,663232,642 139,781 171,249 173,508 143,14592,68191,80466,53037,37936,94534,579Demolition23,24033,400 23,190 16,390 30,680 29,25014,6604,4207,9567,9567,9567,956Global fleet (EOY)541,090621,720 687,440 726,720 758,460 776,461 800,243824,297 859,542 903,802 918,488 938

60、,533Newbuild order growth (%)-59.2%-41.5%323.9%-38.1%-50.1%-67.1%314.9%-0.2%-58.7%28.7%-3.7%15.4%Demolition growth (%)255.4%43.7%-30.6%-29.3%87.2%-4.7%-49.9%-69.8%80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Global fleet growth (%)17.0%14.9%10.6%5.7%4.4%2.4%3.1%3.0%4.3%5.1%1.6%2.2%Order backlog-to-fleet (%)56.5%37.4%20.3%23.6%

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