未來(lái)城市：緩解擁堵促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)

1、By: James Pomeroy and Ashim PaunEconomics&ESGOctober HYPERLINK / the city be the & report be part Executive SummaryCities are great places. They are economic powerhouses that create jobs, opportunities and ideas, they offer strong network effects due to people living in close proximity, and they are

2、 culturally rich in terms of arts, sports and entertainment. No wonder 56% of us across the world choose to live in a city today, rising to almost 80% in developed markets.But we all know, cities are not perfect. As we wrote in The Future of Cities, 19 September 2018, they face many challenges. And

3、chief amongst them is congestion.In the worlds 50 biggest cities, travel times are roughly 40% longer than they should be, meaning that people spend hundreds of hours a year sitting in unnecessary traffic. We estimate that urban congestion currently costs roughly USD1.7trn a year in the developed wo

4、rld, a figure that could be nearly 30% higher by 2030 unless the problem is tackled. In the emerging world, due to rising incomes and increased urbanisation, unless cities are made more efficient we estimate that the economic costs of congestion could double from USD1.0trn to USD2.0trn in the next d

5、ecade. Unless something changes, the global costs of urban congestion by 2030 could be more than USD4.0trn, roughly 3.5% of global GDP.If you sit in a car for even 30 minutes of a working day, thats 7% of your working time. Its unproductive and thats before taking account of the stress that congesti

6、on can cause.As cities get bigger, the strains on current networks will increase, and upgrades and new services will be needed. As the chart below makes clear, larger cities, many of them in emerging markets, face the biggest challenges.Congestion by city where is itworst?LimaBogotaMoscowMumbaiNew D

7、elhiBucharestJakartaIstanbulBangkoMexicoCitykDublinRecifeKievSaint Petersburganeiro ChongqingRio de JCairoEdinburghKuala LumpurSao PauloTokyoBratislavaBelfastWarsawSofiaVancouverRomeSantiagoLondonLABeijingSingapore LimaBogotaMoscowMumbaiNew DelhiBucharestJakartaIstanbulBangkoMexicoCitykDublinRecifeK

8、ievSaint Petersburganeiro ChongqingRio de JCairoEdinburghKuala LumpurSao PauloTokyoBratislavaBelfastWarsawSofiaVancouverRomeSantiagoLondonLABeijingSingapore KongParisHongBuenos Aires ShanghaiNew York ChicagoAtlantaPhoenix Madrid DetroitSan AntonioDongguanTianjinWinston-SalemIndianapolis0.60TomTom co

9、ngestion score0.50TomTom congestion score0.400.3006.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.0City Population (ln)Source: TomTom, UN Urbanisation Prospects, HSBC. Note: TomTom congestion score is the additional journey time in % for car journeys in the city. Natural log of populationFurthermore, traffic lea

10、ds to more fuel consumption in road vehicles that currently means more combustion of diesel and petrol, in the vast majority of cases, and so more greenhouse gas emissions which cause global warming (see: The second frontier Why the transport sector is next in tackling climate change, January 2019).

11、 More fuel combustion also means more local air pollutants NOx, SO2 and particulate matter which are harmful to human health and linked to numerous fatal and non-fatal healthconditions.On the face of it, fixing this is easy: fewer cars on the road, better public transport, more people using this pub

12、lic transport or walking, cycling or sharing cars. And cities can be designed to minimise the distance and number of journeys made.Already, globally, we are sitting on an USD15trn, or 0.5% of global GDP, infrastructure gap. That shortfall is even larger if we want to tackle the UNs sustainable devel

13、opment goals.In 2019 alone, estimates from the Global Infrastructure Outlook suggest a nearly USD300bn underinvestment in transport infrastructure. That has to change given the economic, social and environmental benefits that could be unlocked from improved public transport networks.On top of this,

14、we look at the design of cities. Does the sprawling transport network that has evolved in cities across the world make sense? Do cities need to be rethought to be made more effective? Autonomous vehicles could change the public transport mix, road layouts could change, and our shopping and delivery

15、habits could change. Not only could cities look different ten years from now, but the changes could play a key role in cutting congestion.If congestion can be cut, the implications are vast. If the hours stuck in traffic were to be cut, rather than increase, by 20% over ten years, we estimate it cou

16、ld add as much as 0.2ppt to the annual global GDP growth rate over the next decade. But that almost certainly means fewer cars on the road bad news for car manufacturers and countries such as Germany, which have felt the pinch from weaker auto demand in 2019. Any infrastructure rollout could also bo

17、ost global growth in the short term if local governments deliver on the need for more public transport.Most of the top performers globally are smaller European cities, with the likes of Copenhagen and Amsterdam standing out in terms of reducing congestion and encouraging residents to travel outside

18、of private vehicles. More than half of the population cycles to work in these cities. On the other end of the spectrum, Shanghais impressive rollout of public transport means that despite having a population of roughly 26m (in the urban area), the city is only as congested as the likes of Lisbon, Ha

19、mburg or Bordeaux, cities a fraction of the size. Dublin, a city of 1.2m people, is as congested as Sao Paulo (21m people), and is a clear example of a city with much work to do. In the attached spreadsheet we provide key data for more than 1,000 cities that suggest the appropriate solutions to urba

20、n congestion challenges.So the potential benefits from better designed cities, improved public transport and fewer cars are huge. Setting aside the obvious health benefits, a world where mobility is easier is good news for the service sector as bars, restaurants and entertainment become more accessi

21、ble. And it could be good news for the circular economy (see: Waste less, grow more, September 2019) if denser living promotes the sharing economy. Put simply, cities are already the powerhouses of global economic growth, but they can work even better.There are constraints, however. Funding is obvio

22、usly one of them and the part played respectively by public city authorities and private real estate developers. One piece of good news here is the growing role being played in this space by the green bond market (see: Funding Future Cities, 17 October 2019). But just as important is foresight. Thes

23、e changes will require a longer-term approach to city planning with the benefits set to accrue over many years. Given the public scrutiny on environmental issues, this is more likely than ever, but cities need to deliver.Cost of congestionSource: HSBC estimates. Note: These figures are our central e

24、stimates for the cost of urban congestion by 2030. We include a range of estimates in chart 6.Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 1 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 55 by HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Policy: Carrot or Stick approachto HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 The road

25、blocks: getting the cash HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Cutting down the number HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 it HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 A HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 The sc

26、ale of the problemCities across the world are only gettingbiggercreating more congestion and environmentaldamageunless policy responds quickly andeffectivelyCities: important and growing quicklya is by in Andsomeoftheseliveinnewcities,othersliveincitiesthatkeepOf the 562 in the today more than 1m on

27、ly 14 of them are to have a smaller by than they have and eight of those are in Japan1. Of the 84citiesinthemorethan5minpopulationisexpectedto be 1.6% per year for the decade, population in is faster (chart2).TokyoOsakaMoscowNagoyaSaint PetersburgKitakyushu-FukuokaNew YorkRio de JaneiroBuenos Aires

28、So PauloChicago ParisSeoulBarcelona MadridMexico CityMumbaiBeijingManilaCalcuttaIstanbulBogotLondonRiyadhBangkokLimaAtlantaTorontoAnkaraCairoChongqingChennaiKuala LumpurPuneKarachidHyderaba BangaloreTokyoOsakaMoscowNagoyaSaint PetersburgKitakyushu-FukuokaNew YorkRio de JaneiroBuenos Aires So PauloCh

29、icago ParisSeoulBarcelona MadridMexico CityMumbaiBeijingManilaCalcuttaIstanbulBogotLondonRiyadhBangkokLimaAtlantaTorontoAnkaraCairoChongqingChennaiKuala LumpurPuneKarachidHyderaba BangaloreBaghdadZhengzhouDhakaLahoreNanjingSuzhouLagosSuratLuandaAbidjan KhartoumKinshasaDar es SalaamPopulation growth

30、rate 2019-2030 (% Yr)Population growth rate 2019-2030 (% Yr)44Population growth rate 2019-2030 (% Yr)Population growth rate 2019-2030 (% Yr)33221100-1-11.52.02.53.03.54.0Population in 2019, ln(millions)Source: UN Urbanisation Prospects. City size in in natural logarithm to condense the scale. Note:

31、Cities with more than 5m people in 2019 shown.in be in are by 1 Sendai, Osaka, Kitakyushu-Fukuoka, Sapporo, Tokyo, Sendai, Shizuoka-Hamamatsu and Nagoya (Japan), Beirut (Lebanon), Bucharest (Romania), Kharkiv (Ukraine), Volgograd, Samara and Nizhniy Novgorod (Russia)in is in of byUScity%YrPopulation

32、 growth by city size (DM, 2019-30) 1.00.20.0300-500k500k-1m1m-3m3m+% Yr1.00.60.2Pop. growth 2019-30, % YrPop. growth 2019-30, % YrCities: US & Canada (1m pop.) CharlotteRaleighAustinCalgaryLas Vegas Atlanta HoustonCities: US & Canada (1m pop.) CharlotteRaleighAustinCalgaryLas Vegas Atlanta HoustonNe

33、w YorkDetroitClevelandLos AngelesChicagoPopulation, 2019 (Mn)UNUNa a But importantly, cities face many challenges and need to work in a way to maximise their economic potential.The damage caused by congestiona in We in in it a Economic costsof by of a in 2% a a by is in by is in 5) on a on 2 https:/

34、 HYPERLINK /explore/cities-and-the-circular-economy /explore/cities-and-the-circular-economy3 Inrix Global Traffic Scorecard, February 20194 Note, the US & European average in the study is 140 hours per year. But as the cities surveyed are larger than average, we lowered this to 110 to account for h

35、aving more small (less congested) cities.a%TomTomCongestionIndex(%extra timeto completejourneyvs notraffic)% 7070606050504040303020201010US SaudiArabiaAustralia New Zealand South AfricaUKHongMainlandChinaSource: Tom Tom Congestion Index, HSBC. /en_gb/traffic-index/ranking/. Note: Based on average fo

36、r cities within each country.EM a in EM in in in EM per By in EM beaof%GDPCost of urban congestion, 2030 - with same congestion level as 2019 1110987654321Norway Spain UAE Norway Spain UAE USSouth Africa Denmark SwedenNewZealand SaudiArabia MainlandChina HongUSDbn110010009008007006005004003002001000

37、% GDP(rangeestimate)USDbn(RHS)Source: HSBC estimates based on UN, INRIX and IMF data.In may low of is in is of is to of the of is to in is the US is near as US 5 Transforming Indias mobility, Niti Aayog, September 2018.of a a of of by to on Social costsWe can all testify that sitting in traffic is a

38、nnoying. The uncertainty that it creates, the anxiety of being late for a flight, meeting or social engagement is evident every time a car youre in stops in congestion.is Environmental costsisainin is a WHO, in in in An urban problemby by Europe LMI 7%South-EastAsia 5%E. MediterraneanHI 0%Europe HI

39、25%America Western Pacific LMI 45%Stroke40%IHD40%COPD11%Lung Stroke40%IHD40%COPD11%Lung 6%ALRI 3%E. Mediterranean LMI 3%6%America 2%Africa 5% HI E. isinWHO80%in is in 6 Alexander Legraina, Naveen Elurub & Ahmed M.El-Geneidya, Am stressed, must travel: The relationship between mode choice and commuti

40、ng stress, Transportation Research Part F: Traffic Psychology and Behaviour, Volume 34, October 2015, Pages 141-1517 WHO Ambient air pollution GHO (Global Health Observatory data) link i.e. attributable to air pollution alone and to air pollution which is exacerbated by climate changeis in is a it i

41、s in in by of so a in a in a is so a is is Chart 9 shows where CO2 emissions come from within the transport sector. Cars take the highest share, with 37% of transport emissions. Heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) or trucks, account for a quarter of emissions, while light goods vehicles (LGVs) and buses acc

42、ount for another 4% each.Add in 2&3 wheelers and you get to a total of 71% of emissions from road transport. Thus the ability to make a material contribution to meeting emissions reduction targets by replacing road traffic is considerable.Other* Buildings 7%8%Transport24%Power & Heat 42%Other indust

43、rial combustion 19%Buses; 4%Rail; 4%HGVs; 25%Aviation;12%LGVs; 4%Shipping; 13%Cars;37%2&3Other* Buildings 7%8%Transport24%Power & Heat 42%Other industrial combustion 19%Buses; 4%Rail; 4%HGVs; 25%Aviation;12%LGVs; 4%Shipping; 13%Cars;37%2&3Wheelers; 1%CO2 emissions by transport type(2015)Source: IEA

44、COemissions from Fuel Combustion, 2018. Note: *Others includes agriculture/forestry, fishing and other non-specified. Data for 2016Source: UCL; HBSCAs environmental concerns grow, we expect cities to prioritise air pollution from transport congestion. Additionally, as more data become available and

45、are widely distributed on social media, we think this will drive popular support for preventative measures. We think theco-benefits discussed throughout this report all support decision-makers in helping achieve a clean transport transition we discuss what this might look like in is in January 2019.

46、What are the transport options?Improving the public transport offering is key to cuttingcongestionwhile cities need to lower the dependence on privatecarsthrough a range of policymeasuresPolicymakers in cities across the world have clear economic, environmental and social reasons to cut congestion w

47、ithin their cities. This could come in a number of ways, but first car usage will need to be lower and public transport options will have to improve. There are a number of approaches that could be taken and we outline these below.Improve the transport offeringDo cities have ample public transport in

48、frastructure? In most cases, cities dont have sufficient public transport infrastructure to facilitate the growing number of passengers or the quality is not high enough to attract people onto it in the first place. Many major cities public transport networks are already bursting at the seams during

49、 rush hours.On the face of it, the solution is simple: build more. While quantifying the amount of public transport in a city is hard, a simple scatter of population to the number of metro stations can give one indication. Chart 11 shows this data for large Chinese and Indian cities compared with co

50、mparably sized European cities. This highlights that while the biggest cities, such as Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou all have a public transit system in keeping with their large size, many large cities in China have a tiny metro system, with Dongguan for example, a city of roughly 8m people, havin

51、g a metro system with just one line and 15 stations. Shanghaisextensive network is a key reason for its outperformance in terms of congestion for such a large city, with 11 new metro lines opened since 2007, and now spanning 413 stations.Many large Indian cities have a tiny metro network (although m

52、any do have regional train services) and suffer from incredible congestion with huge mega cities such as Bangalore, Mumbai and Kolkata having incredibly limited public metro systems despite populations well over 10m. Any resident of these cities will attest that congestion and pollution are two of t

53、he major issues they face on a day-to-day basis.Most Chinese and Indian cities have a big shortage of urban infrastructure, evenif some big cities haveplenty450Number of metro stationsNumber of metro stationsMadridGuangzhouParisLondonBeijingBerlinQingdaoNanjingQingdaoWuhanChengduShenzhenTianjinChong

54、qingTianjinStockholmStockholmChina Europe IndiaXianSuzhou100ZhengzhouChina Europe IndiaXianSuzhouRome50DalianShenyangHyderabadBangaloreKochi0Lucknow Jinan JaipurDongguanChennaiKolkataMumbai051015202530City Population (mn)Source: UN Urbanisation Prospects, local sources. Metro station data is from re

55、levant city data.Congestion is an issue across the emerging world. For example, Lagos in Nigeria was supposed to see a Rail Mass Transit system open in 2016, but this has been delayed until 2022, so the rapidly growing city of 13m people (urban area) is still without a rail network within the city.

56、Across India, where rail networks are more prevalent, they are dangerous with an estimated 50,000 people losing their lives on railway tracks between 2015 and 20178, so investment is needed for safety reasons as much as cutting congestion.And globally, the shortfall of infrastructure is clear to see

57、. Data from the Global Infrastructure Hub (a G20 initiative) suggest that we already have a nearly USD300bn shortfall of rail and road infrastructure across the world, roughly 0.35% of global GDP. And the situation is even morestriking in many emerging markets where the gap is estimated to be well o

58、ver 1% of GDP already (chart 12).The global infrastructure gap is growing each%ofGDPInfrastructure Gap Projections:2020 654321 Egypt South AfricaJordan Thailand USSaudiNew UKSpain SouthJapan Canada France% of GDP6543210TelecommunicationPortsRailRoadWaterAirportEnergySource: Global Infrastructure Hub

59、, /. Note: Gap = difference between required and actual spend.8 From Indian Government Railway Police, cited in Indian Trains Have Killed 50,000 in 3 Years: Railways Data Reveals Days After Amritsar Accident, News18, 23 October 2018OECD data suggest that the infrastructure spend by country is very l

60、ow outside of China. While we cannot break this down clearly into urban and rural spend, it gives a sense of how small the amount of spending on infrastructure is by country something that will likely have to rise goingforwards.byis%GDPInlandtransportinfrastructureinvestment(2013-17average) 654321It