皮尤-展望美國未來30年：發(fā)展前景調(diào)查報告

1、Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 About PewResearchCenter1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Overview3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Americain205014 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Worries, priorities andpotential problem-solvers24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Views ofdemographicchanges35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Retirement, S

2、ocial Security andlong-termcare43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 The future of work in theautomated workplace48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Acknowledgments54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Methodology55Public is broadly pessimistic about the future of America% saying Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer

3、not shown.Public is broadly pessimistic about the future of America% saying Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERAmericas fut

4、ure, hope gives way to doubt whenthe focus turns to specific issues.A w Pw Rrh r uveyudon htAmerics tikeUitd Ss lbe ikein50s ht jories ofAmers oreaoryh abg ol t, ar p bnherih d hepor d aororerd bytmio.joris rt ht eoomylbe r, hh relbes rb, he oionof heviromt willbere d or Amrics illheahrr emig s mt t

5、hnhyo o.Alsopric: a orit tk sbd sor oehn911 ommevrhet 0rTherm rios miro, inp, he pbicsr od othe HYPERLINK /2019/01/18/2-views-of-nations-economy-personal-finances-job-availability/ rrt seof heo. ThehrefAmricso re sisdh heyhis reoig inhe oryininJayof 19 ishigher now than at any time in the pastyear.

6、Theviwof heUS. in50ht hepbics inits crtlblismjorhs inhe orspoilshp.Nryiein prt ht a omnlbetd prid rohyohis65)yhemeot aHispicpro. A,onaiyoimiic o, orehnhf pt arer zhimrs diseby5.Nearly half of whites say a majority nonwhite population will weaken American culture% saying having a majority of the popu

7、lation made up of blacks, Asians, Hispanics and other racial minorities by the year2050will customs andvaluesHave littleStrengthenWeakenimpactAlladults303831White234630Black401840Hispanic462527Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown. Whites and blacks include those who report

8、being only one race and are non-Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERThepbic o hs amht orepoitvevw or t t amreignoe of me urt dmorhc trs ht willhpehes t

9、r. heUS.usNearly half of whites say a majority nonwhite population will weaken American culture% saying having a majority of the population made up of blacks, Asians, Hispanics and other racial minorities by the year2050will customs andvaluesHave littleStrengthenWeakenimpactAlladults303831White23463

10、0Black401840Hispanic462527Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown. Whites and blacks include those who report being only one race and are non-Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an Ame

11、rica in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERHisps,Asis dohr mioris willotuea mjory fhep. About orinAmrs (4)yhs hiftl e ithr od orbd orhe oryhile35%biea mjorymirityppion lbeaod hig, d3% yit lbeb.Thevis diffr gibyred hi.hits rebotwes y s bs r Hpis toviw hs chevey(% hs v. 3% ofbsd 1%of Hp). An,hn

12、 d bot heoof anincreasinglydiverse America, nearly half ofwhites(46) bt oyarof Hipis d 1%ofbs yamjritymoriy oryonAmricnsms d vThepbicvis hrpojtd heinhemorhic oors fAmricaore omis.By5, ppes 65 d or re HYPERLINK /library/visualizations/2018/comm/historic-first.html prtd o br oer hn1aheht a56%mory f lu

13、s yillbebd or he.In the face of these problems and threats, the majority of Americans have little confidence that the federal government and their elected officials are up to meeting the major challenges that lieahead. More than eight-in-ten say they are worried about the way the government in Washi

14、ngton works, including 49% who are very worried. A similar share worries about the ability of political leaders to solve the nations biggest problems, with 48% saying they are very worried about this. And, when asked what impact the federal government will have on finding solutions to the countrys f

15、uture problems, more say Washington will have a negative impact than a positive one (55% vs. 44%).Inste, remorisof Amrics oko cied thoy s wls to heon tm o overeobm: %yied thooy lhveavryor omht piveimpt inovig heios rbm, d rohyhres yhemebpbic K12os () d os d iis(. no, ohyre() rryotheilityof bc soosop

16、oveaaityuono oors tds, d orept heityof heooso tr, t b, by5.And oy bot ahrd(34) f eoyrs ird pgonciiic rrh s ap oicy prorUnderlying many of these and other findings are deep divisions along the traditional fault lines of American life, including race, age and education. However, among the more strikin

17、g differences found in this survey are those between Republicans and Democrats. Taken together, the size and frequency of these differences underscore the extent to which partisan polarization underpins not just the current political climate but views of the future as well.Across a range of issues,

18、the difference between partisans is not merely apparent, butopioyr.Dpitehrd onot theureityofheiospbic oo, bot tohis f Dors d heo nDmoric(66), toy36% Rpbics dRpbnrs, reird pgonuions aop rl ovrmt pirit.About ixinDmors(5)btoy19%f pbs syhemalhveaoiieimptonovig heos urepobm. Abot oriDmors(4)ya mjoryohite

19、pionlrhnAricnos d va, aviw prdbyoy13%ofRpbic. Siilr,bt xnDmors (1bt st ahrd f Rbics coir heoh f irilmrieo beaod tig r oi. Prnpsontreproris rtmir ps inurt oicyprriti. HYPERLINK /fact-tank/2019/02/05/republicans-and-democrats-have-grown-further-apart-on-what-the-nations-top-priorities-should-be/ Rt HY

20、PERLINK /fact-tank/2019/02/05/republicans-and-democrats-have-grown-further-apart-on-what-the-nations-top-priorities-should-be/ rrhhs onhtRpbics d Dos hveoved rhr prt inrtinhir isonht teopproris or os d theritd b.Prinrs repruryreonis rd o heviom. Aot sixiDmors(6)btoy15%f Rpbs syhyrevryorid ot meh.An

21、venrr href Dors () rt heoionof heviromt willt wrein het 30rs, hile43% fRpbics r.Parties are deeply divided on future worries and priorities%saying in thefutureRep/ Lean RepDem/ Lean DemAll adultsThe environment will be worse59%The government should be mostly responsible for paying for the long-term

22、care older43%70%55Americans may needIncreasing spending on education should be a4066top federal governmentpriorityThe news media will have a positive impacton366642solving the countrys problems*They are very worried about climate change1958A majority nonwhite population will strengthen15613001342100

23、* Shares who say this will have a very/somewhat positive impact.Note: These specific results are drawn from different questions, some of which used different question formats. For full results and question wording, see the topline.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to

24、the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTEREven their top priorities for the future are, in many instances, strikingly different. Among all adults, health care and increased spending on education topped the list of policies that the public believes the federal go

25、vernment should enact to improve the quality of life for future generations. Yet the top-three Republican priorities reducing the number of undocumented immigrants, cutting the national debt and avoiding tax increases dont even appear among the Democrats highest five priorities.Parties are united in

26、 their view that polarization will worsen in the future% saying that, over the next 30 years, it is morelikely Parties are united in their view that polarization will worsen in the future% saying that, over the next 30 years, it is morelikely that the countrywillbe politically dividedLessMoreAlladul

27、ts2665Rep/LeanRep2368Dem/LeanDem2862Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on ManyFronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERIt is perhaps fitting that, while the two parties hol

28、d similar views on a number of issues, one area of agreement stands out: Majorities of bothAbout four-in-ten Americans say, by the time they retire, Social Security wont have enough money to provide benefitsAmong those who are not retired, % saying that, when they are ready to retire, Social Securit

29、y will provide benefits at CurrentReducedlevelslevelsNobenefitsAlladults 164242 Ages18-29 15424230-49 11375250+ 234828Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on M

30、any Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERpris rehtheorylbemre poAbout four-in-ten Americans say, by the time they retire, Social Security wont have enough money to provide benefitsAmong those who are not retired, % saying that, when they are ready to retire, Social Security will provide benefits at CurrentRedu

31、cedlevelslevelsNobenefitsAlladults 164242 Ages18-29 15424230-49 11375250+ 234828Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERTheioyrp

32、riveuveyf 54 us socd oieD. 11, 1sig PwRrh rs HYPERLINK /methodology/u-s-survey-research/american-trends-panel/ AmricnTrs HYPERLINK /methodology/u-s-survey-research/american-trends-panel/ P.1 Aog heherys:Majorities of Americans predict a tougher time financially for older adults in 2050AboutinAmrics

33、() pt or us willbesrprd iyr rirmt in50hnhyre. An venrr hre83)prt ht oppelhveorkio hir s inro ordorir.And epbis ort r herefheoiluritytm is yrm.Amogoeo ret t rir,4%expect to receive no Social Securitybenefits 1 For more details, see the HYPERLINK /2019/03/21/methodology-america-in-2050 Methodology sec

34、tion of the report.hnhyveheoro, d ohr 4%iipehtbts lberud om ht hyre.Ads ur hn50repruryoflht oilSery lehrehnhyve heoror: 48% pt o reoSilSecury btshnhyrir. Byor, of heo re0r r rerypimti. But venmoghsr op,oybot ar (3) pt oreSilSecrityts t crt ve. Thefis rt a HYPERLINK /2014/03/07/chapter-2-generations-

35、and-issues/ ogtgpimprurymog g us bot hegm ovey f he SilSecuityEven as they doubt the long-term financial viability of the Social Security system, most Americans reject reducing benefits. Only a quarter believe that some reductions in benefits for future retirees will need to be made to shore up the

36、systems finances, while about three times as many say benefits should not be reduced in any way.Few Americans predict a better standard of living for families in 2050orehnorinAmrics 44) prctht heveragemis d f ivig illt oserahr hnbtrover het 30r. hsrhyobehehre() ho pt ilis to rebtr iyinhetrehnhyo o;3

37、5%prct o rlhWhnit omsopopts or hilr, hf f epbics hildrenlhveaoetd of ivig in30rs thnhyooy,ile4%prt ht hylebtr . nremoreikyhnmno yhilrs td of ivig lbehhr n30rs thnit is oy47%v. 36), hehoeo o othvehilrninheomereomht ore psiisc oths nhoeo o 5%v.44%yhirnlhveaoetdof ivi.Large majority says health care fo

38、r all would benefit future generationsWhen asked what the federal government should do to improve the quality of life for future generations, providing high-quality, affordable health care to all Americans stands out as the most popular policy prescription. Roughly two-thirds (68%) say this should b

39、e a top priority for government in the future.Increased spending on education is somewhat less popular; 54% say more money for schools should be a top federal government priority in order to improve life for future generations. Slightly fewer say the same about reducing the national debt or dealing

40、with climate change (49% and 48%, respectively, say each should be a top priority). A larger share of RepublicansthanMajorities say increased government spending on health care, education would improve life for future generations% saying each of the following shouldMajorities say increased governmen

41、t spending on health care, education would improve life for future generations% saying each of the following shouldbea in order for the federal government to improve the quality of life for futuregenerationsImportant, Lower priority/ TopprioritybutnottopshouldnotprioritybedoneProvidinghigh-quality,6

42、82012affordable health care to allIncreasingspendingfor543313educationReducing thenationaldebt49419Dealing withclimatechange482823Increasing spending on SocialSecurity,Medicare,Medicaid473814Reducing the gapbetween the443620rich and poorAvoidingtaxincreases393625Reducing the number ofundocumentedimm

43、igrants382933coming into the U.S.Increasing spendingforroads,365213bridges and other infrastructureIncreasingspendingon344818scientific researchNote: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees

44、an America in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERIncreasing spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid is viewed as a top priority by 47% of adults, and reducing the gap between rich and poor is seen as such by 44%. Falling further down the list are avoiding tax increases, reducing th

45、e number of undocumented immigrants coming into the U.S., increasing spending on infrastructure and more money for scientific research.Minorities are more optimistic than whites about the countrys futurevera,56%of lusy hyreithrverypmistc (1) r mht pmistc (44) othe. in5.But more than four-in-ten(44)

46、eheors tre morer,ig3% o yhyrevry psiisc d 1%hore omhtpsiisc oAmericain30rBlack and Hispanic adults are among the most optimistic about the countrys future. Seven-in-ten blacks and two-thirds of Hispanics feel hopeful about Americas future. In contrast, about half ofNarrow majority of Americans are o

47、ptimistic about the future of the U.S. over the next 30 years% sayingtheyare about the future of the U.S. in2050VerypessimisticVery optimisticSomewhatpessimisticSomewhat optimisticNetNet4456Alladults13314412White1435429Black10 195020Hispanic9245017Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer

48、 not shown. Whites and blacks include those who report being only one race and are non-Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERlhits 1) res d. Hih ool rus

49、doehs uono re omht oreoitvebot heorpNarrow majority of Americans are optimistic about the future of the U.S. over the next 30 years% sayingtheyare about the future of the U.S. in2050VerypessimisticVery optimisticSomewhatpessimisticSomewhat optimisticNetNet4456Alladults13314412White1435429Black10 195

50、020Hispanic9245017Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown. Whites and blacks include those who report being only one race and are non-Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in

51、Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTER53%).Unlike the wide partisan differences seen elsewhere in this survey, Democrats and Republicans are about equally optimistic when it comes to these broad predictions aboutAmericas future.Theracilptrnts whnAmrs re d bot hetrefraceriosover he t 30r. Sligymo

52、rehnhf of l hs 54) bt 43%ofbas d 4%of Hisps yros illt btr. vr, heoy s dvidonherefrrio:Aot hf ) yhyimpv, ile4%prict hylt wrMost Americans worry about the countrysmoral values; half say religionwillbecome lessimportantRoughly four-in-ten Americans (43%) say they are very worried about the nations mora

53、ls, while another 34% are fairly worried. For Republicans, the countrys moral health is a major concern: Roughly half (49%) say, when they think about the countrys future, they are very worried about the moral values of Americans. Only about a third of Democrats (36%) are equally worried.Women are m

54、ore concerned about the countrys morals than men (46% vs. 38%), while older Americans are more worried than those younger than 50 (49% vs. 37%).Thepbic s dvidovr hhrrigionlbomes iprtoverhet 30rs thn it is . Hf yrignloeimore,hile4%yit lrmnh(rpos ret venheponfig igionlbemreimor).Whites, those who atte

55、nded college more likely to say religion will be less important in 2050% saying religionwillbeWhites, those who attended college more likely to say religion will be less important in 2050% saying religionwillbe in 30 years than it istodayLessAbout as importantAlladults5042White5639Black3349Hispanic4

56、045HSorless4345Somecollege5438Bachelors+5440Note: Share of respondents who didnt offer an answer not shown. Whites and blacks include those who report being only one race and are non-Hispanic. Hispanics are of any race. “Some college” includes those with an associate degree and those who attended co

57、llege but did not obtain adegree.Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 11-23, 2018.“Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts”PEW RESEARCH CENTERAmogrigis r,rohylhrs of hitevaics 5), hitemiie Prots(1) d hitehos 54) yrigionlbes mprt inhere a view held by a similar

58、 share (59%) of those who are atheist, agnostic or nothing in particular.Older adults, those with less education more negative about the impact of automationWhile only 37% of all currently employed Americans personally see automation as a direct threat to their current occupation, lessud rrs eikir h

59、nhoeih moreormlooigoyhepef rk hyolbeoebyoos ormps in etr. othf (47) foeh aih colpomar s conyhs helcr oprd h38% ofoehome oepried %f heh abhors r vd r.otAmers ret the orps of hetrelbehviytm. bt ihti- n()prt ht bs d opts willo mhof herkryoebyhsapoiilityht myus h s cnviw h ico, ifot trt drd. Amogoeo yrb

60、s d opts willo mhof herkryoebyh, bot igtinf heh ahih oolpomar s uionyhisod beabd hig orheory3%yit d bevrybd; 39% yt wd bemhtb. hh abhors dreor oreuionres r:ohyixinyntomorped bevry(3%)oromhtbd 45.Adults with less education more likely to say the work they do will be done by robots or computersAmong e