利率、指數(shù)與按揭環(huán)境背景

1、COREFor Your Information ServicesDecent 2Q set-up for Ratings, Index,INDUSTRY UPDATEEquityResearch10June2019al n rten Ial n rten I-d e tc itr sReCreditIssuance(MCO/SPGI):Mayissuancewasflaty/y(2Q-to-datedown-7%), withtypicalpocketsofstrengthandweaknessU.S.IG/HY(+20%/+64%)andEuro IG/HY(+21%/+120%)allb

2、enefitedfromeasiercomps.Instructured,CMBS(+117%) wasthehighlight,butCLOs(-13%)andABS(-30%)wereabitweaker;andmuniswere alsosoft(-35%).Maywastheeasiestcompfor2Q,andJuneoftenseesaseasonal slowdownattheendofthemonth,soourbasecaseisthatissuancewilllikelyend modestlydownforthequarter.sofornow,westickwitho

3、urRatingsgrowth assumptionsof+1%forboth2QandFY19.Whyassume2Qgrowthdespitelikely$- volumedeclines?Inadditiontotypical+3-4%pricing,themoretransaction-oriented assetclasseshavebeenstrongerthisquarter(e.g.U.S./EuroHY+29%/+20%in2QTD; CMBS+60%;CLOs+15%;ABS+7%).Note:Our+1%in2QimpliesthatSPGIandMCO wouldhav

4、etodeliver+MSDgrowthin2Htohit+LSDforFY19.Compsclearlygeteasier in2H,andlower-for-longerratesareapositive;butwewillbekeepinganeyeon whether the step-up in volatility in May persists, as it could weigh on issuance volume/timing.&ETFAUMs(MSCI/SPGI):Healthystarttotheyearforequitymarkets(SPX+13%; ACWX +9

5、% through 6/6), but volatility returned in May and equity ETF inflowshavebeentempered.ForMSCI,ifApril-endingAUMof$828Bstayedflatfor therestoftheyear,growthwouldbe+6%/+10%/+16%in2Q-4Q.Intermsofother mngpcs:a) ubcpn mansbut (+116%fr MCI;+29%frSP) butb)derivativetradingvolumewasadragin1Q(-32%forSPGI),a

6、ndstilldownin2Q despiteapick-upinvolatility(CMEequityindices-8%in2QTD;CBOEU.S.equities- 20%).e HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2459869 M:QsitAccentuatesLTawns;W(5/28).U.S.FinancialServicesHiring(FDS/SPGI):Steady(butslowing)trendsinMaywith hiringup+1.3%(vs.+1.8%inApr),andbuy-side(+3

7、.5%inApr)outpacingsell-side hiringgrowthrate(+0.5%).andweremainEWonFDS.FDSF3Q(report6/25)seelightergrowth,withgrowthbeing4Q-weighted.LastQdecelerated(+6%ASV+ ProfServicesvs.prior+6.6%),withsell-side(+9.2%)surprisinglystrongerthanbuy-side (+5.3%).Bycomparison,SPGIMarketIntelligencegrew+8%organicin1Q,

8、with Desktop+6%(usercount+13%),andCreditRiskandDMSboth+11%.Refinitiv(45% ownedbyTRI)grew+3%;+2%subscription,+6%transaction(includingTW).e s : h er s, A s +2%in2019-1%toyear;+5%refi- 6%).2Qisexpectedtobeup+11%inMortgagewasadragon TRUs1Qresults(partofthereasonthatUSISFinancialServiceswasonlyup+1%),but

9、 trendsimprovedthroughoutthequarter;andtherewasasimilardynamicforEFX(1Q inquiries down -10%). EFX has outsized mortgage exposure (19%), while EXPN/TRU/FICOallhave10%mortgagerevenues.Note:Non-mortgagecreditsaw weakestgrowthin9monthsinMar(+$10B;+3.1%),withrevolvingdeclines(-$2B); non-revolving+$12.5B.

10、ofandtodoAsabethathaveathattheofasaU.S. Business & Professional ServicesNEUTRALUnchanged U.S.Business&ProfessionalServices ManavPatnaik+1 212 526 2983 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.patnaik manav.patnaik BCI, USGregory Bardi, CFA+1 212 526 7188 HYPERLINK mailto:gregory.bardi gregory.bardi BCI, USRyan Leonar

11、d+1 212 526 2135 HYPERLINK mailto:ryan.leonard ryan.leonard BCI, USCONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 CREDITISSUANCETRACKER&COMMENTARY3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Mayissuance(flat;-7%2Q-to-date):Typicalputsandtakes3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 .GCps(+20%May;-10%2QT):PcksupafterftApl 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 .YC

12、ps(+64%May;+29%2QT):pv.aycmp 5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 .CLOs(-13%May;+15%2QT):upymanshathy 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 .CMS(+117%May;+60%2QT):Fnaymegnsffe 7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 .AS(-30%May;+7%2QT):Lghtrmnth 8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 .Muns(-35%May;-24%QT):wupy;buttngfundnf 9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 uoIG

13、cps(+21%May;+8%2QT):athyeeYankeupy 10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 uanY(+51%May;+20%2QT):l15-20%bwlatyarspce 11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 U.S.HistoricalIssuance12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 InternationalHistoricalIssuance13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 BARCLAYS/S&PFORECASTMODESTISSUANCEDECLINESIN201914 HYPERLINK l

14、_bookmark13 Wemodel1%RatingsgrowthforSPGI/MCO14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 .asS&Pisforecasting1%issuancedeclinesin201914 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 .ourBarclaysCreditteamispointingtoflattish15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 .andMCOpointingtoflatto-5%declines16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Moreonourconstructivelong-te

15、rmviewofissuance16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 WHYWETHINKMSCI/INDEXREMAINSWELLPOSITIONED18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 ABF(20-25%ofmix)active-to-passivetrendsinitsfavor18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 MSCIIndexSubscription(35%ofmix)remarkablyconsistentperformance21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 DerivativeTradingVolumes

16、MayUpdate22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 MoretakeawaysfromMSCIHQvisit23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 FIN.INFOMIXEDDEMANDBACKDROPIN201925 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Securitiesindustryseeingsteady(slow)hiringgrowth25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Buy-sideHealthytrends,butbackdropremainstough25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Se

17、ll-sideGrowthtemperingabittostarttheyear26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Howresilientareourmarketdatacompanies?27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Mayemployment(+75k;3.6%):Jobsgrowthstalls29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 CREDIT BUREAUDATATRACKER30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 MBAOriginations(Re:CBs):2%volumegrowthin2019;2Q+1

18、1%30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 CnmrCdit(FX/TRU/FICO):Mach(+31)aktreangn9mnths 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 CALENDAROFEVENTS32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 June2019:Quieteventcalendarfornow32Barclays | For Your Information ServicesCREDIT ISSUANCE TRACKER & COMMENTARYMay issuance (flat; -7% 2Q-to-date): Typica

19、l puts and takesFIGURE 1U.S.HighU.S. Non-Agency CMBSU.S. U.S.HighU.S. Non-Agency CMBSU.S. LoansU.S. CLOsU.S. Investment Grade2016201720182019y/y2016 2017 2018 2019 y/y2016 2017 2018 2019 y/y2016 2017 2018 2019 y/y2016 2017 2018 2019 y/yMar$18 $43 $27 $22 -18% Mar$8$9$9 $8 -18% Mar$25$71$59 $25 -58%M

20、ar$4$9$11 $11 8%Mar$135$145$122 $1274%Jan$6$19 $24 $17 -31% Jan$3$2$5 $3 -38% JanMar$18 $43 $27 $22 -18% Mar$8$9$9 $8 -18% Mar$25$71$59 $25 -58%Mar$4$9$11 $11 8%Mar$135$145$122 $1274%Jan$6$19 $24 $17 -31% Jan$3$2$5 $3 -38% Jan$33$96$48 $45 -6%Jan$1$2$7 $5 -29%Jan$155$219$156 $148 -5%1stQtr. 1% 1stQt

21、r. 1stQtr. 1stQtr. 1stQtr.$7 Jun$22 $20 $15 Jun$2$11$12 Jun$69$55$63 Jun$8$15$13 Jun$87$84$106 Apr$31 $16 $17 $18 1% Apr$3$4$4 $3 -25% Apr$20$61$59 $40 -32%Apr$6$10$11 $16 Apr$122$101$138 $96 -30%May$190$163$91 $109 20% May$28 $26 $14 Jun$22 $20 $15 Jun$2$11$12 Jun$69$55$63 Jun$8$15$13 Jun$87$84$106

22、 Apr$31 $16 $17 $18 1% Apr$3$4$4 $3 -25% Apr$20$61$59 $40 -32%Apr$6$10$11 $16 Apr$122$101$138 $96 -30%Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Sep$25 $37 $36 Sep$9$9$4 Sep$55$22$42 Sep$8$10$8 Sep$156$146$139 Jul$13 $11$7 Jul$6$7$8 Jul$21$45$40 Jul$6$9$10 Jul$118$119$63Sep$25 $37 $36 Sep$9$9$4 Sep$55$22$42 Sep$8$10$

23、8 Sep$156$146$139 Jul$13 $11$7 Jul$6$7$8 Jul$21$45$40 Jul$6$9$10 Jul$118$119$63 Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Dec$19 $18$0 Dec$9$9$5 Dec$66$35$30 Dec$10$9$6 Dec$39$42$12 Oct$13 $23 $12 Oct$8$10$8 Oct$75$42$55 Oct$8$12$9 Oct$131$138$102 $73$117$88 Dec$19 $18$0 Dec$9$9$5 Dec$66$35$30 Dec$10$9$6 Dec$39$42$1

24、2 Oct$13 $23 $12 Oct$8$10$8 Oct$75$42$55 Oct$8$12$9 Oct$131$138$102 4thQtr. 4thQtr. 4thQtr. 4thQtr. 4thQtr. Pan-European High YieldGBP Investment GradeEuro Investment GradePan-European High YieldGBP Investment GradeEuro Investment Grade2016201720182019y/y2016 2017 2018 2019 y/y2016 2017 2018 2019 y/

25、y2016 2017 2018 2019 y/yMar11129 5 -44%Mar254 6 Mar816767 53 -21%$26 $36 $22 $25 Jan$11 $21$18$11Jan2016 2017 2018 2019 y/yU.S. MunicipalU.S. Non-Mortgage ABSJan 1 66 2 -68%Jan2555 Mar11129 5 -44%Mar254 6 Mar816767 53 -21%$26 $36 $22 $25 Jan$11 $21$18$11Jan2016 2017 2018 2019 y/yU.S. MunicipalU.S. N

26、on-Mortgage ABSJan 1 66 2 -68%Jan2555 -4%Jan356252 60 1stQtr. $43 $33 $26 $27 3%Mar$34 $29 -15%$27$13Mar$32 $23 $18 $25 Feb1stQtr. 1st Qtr. 7% 1stQtr.14 26 18 11 1stQtr.6 $48 $40 $33 Jun$31 $22$16JunJun 5 9 6 Jun155Jun2554 35 $28 -12%$35 $31 $32 Apr$23 $37$24$14AprApr1679 96%Apr254 42%Apr662442 40 -

27、5%$51 -24%$48 $40 $33 Jun$31 $22$16JunJun 5 9 6 Jun155Jun2554 35 $28 -12%$35 $31 $32 Apr$23 $37$24$14AprApr1679 96%Apr254 42%Apr662442 40 -5%$51 -24%2nd Qtr. $126 $109 $100 $23 -35%$42 $39 $35 MayQtr. 7%Qtr. 94 8% Qtr.29 19 18 15 Qtr.5 $40 $29 $25 Sep$20 $17$21SepSep1211 8 Sep878 Sep4852 59 $29 $25

28、$27 Jul$27 $17$23JulJul 3 7 4 Jul285 Jul2923 35 $47 $37 $34 $40 $29 $25 Sep$20 $17$21SepSep1211 8 Sep878 Sep4852 59 $29 $25 $27 Jul$27 $17$23JulJul 3 7 4 Jul285 Jul2923 35 $47 $37 $34 AugQtr. Qtr.9796Qtr.18 18 13 Qtr. $54 $39 $37 Oct$44 $35$28Oct3rd Qtr. $115 $92 $86 Oct513 3 Oct263 Oct4829 24 $19 $

29、64 $22 Dec$8 $10$8DecDec 1 6 0 Dec210 Dec910 6 $32 $44 $28 Nov$14$27$27 $54 $39 $37 Oct$44 $35$28Oct3rd Qtr. $115 $92 $86 Oct513 3 Oct263 Oct4829 24 $19 $64 $22 Dec$8 $10$8DecDec 1 6 0 Dec210 Dec910 6 $32 $44 $28 Nov4thQtr. 4th$105 $147 $87 4thQtr.989579 4thQtr.9267 4thQtr.66 Full $504 $605 Full $50

30、4 $605 $560 $574 2%Full $72 $119 $129 $123 -5%Full $1,436 $1,469 $1,198 $1,163 -3% Full $216 $276 $189 $190 1% Full $76$94$77 $71 -8%FullFull $206$268$307 $240 -22%Full Year 35 60 46 55 21%Full Year 70 89 57 42 -26%Full Year 526 513 487 Full Year 35 60 46 55 21%Full Year 70 89 57 42 -26%Full Year 52

31、6 513 487 500 3%Full Year $446 $439 $338 $380 12%U.S.IGCorps(+20%May;-10%2QTD):PicksupaftersoftAprilFIGURE 2U.S. Investment Grade Corporates Issuance Summary ($B) U.S. InvestmentGradeMarket Commentary:-Mayissuancewas$109B,up20%y/yandapick-upa weakApril.2Q-to-dateissuanceis$206B(-10%).Industrials led

32、 gross supply with $60B.Forecast:Expectingmodestdeclines(-3%y/y)-ratesare rising but funding conditions still look favorable.Recap:Firstyearofy/ydeclinesin6yearsRecap:Anotherrecordyear.Recap: 4thstraightrecordbreakingyear($1.4B+;up 8%)Recap:Up16%previousrecord2014.Recap:recordyear,beatingout2013by3%

33、.Company Notes:MCO/MIS:U.S.makesupthelionsshareofits(60%)anditsCorporateFinanceGroup(CFG)is50%ofmix 10%IG,10%HY,11%bankloans,and19%other(including monitoring,commercialpaperandMTNs).SPGI/S&P:Whilecomparativelymoregeographicallydiverse thanMoodys,U.S.stillaccounts50%+ofand similarlycorporatemakeuprou

34、ghly50%ofmix.2015201620172018y/y2019*y/yJan$107$155$219$156-29%$148-5%Feb$117$113$92$10919%$1155%Mar$157$135$145$122-16%$1274%Quarter-15%$3901%$122$122$101$13837%$96-30%May$155$190$163-44%$10920%Jun$101$87$84$10627%Quarter-3%$206-10%Jul$146$118$119-47%$52$118$103-31%Sep$109$156$146$139-5%Quarter-26%

35、Oct$113$131$138$102-26%$97$73$117-25%Dec$56$39$42$12-71%4thQuarter-32%$1,332 $1,436 $1,469$1,198-18%$1,163-3%*2019 FY based on B arclays Research Estimates$BMonthlyIssuanceTracker:Issuance Quarter:$B0$BJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec$BFull4th3rd 2ndQuarter1stQuarter050020162017201820

36、19*2016201720182019*Dealogic Comparison: Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Jan-18 Feb-19 Mar-19Apr-19 May-19Total Issuance ($bn)30134961221251261226893147981001111811012396110Y/Y(31%)(26%)2%(11%)49%(24%)28%(48%)(14%)8%(23%)(18%)(61%)(12%)15%1%(23%)(13%)YTD Issuance Tracking1,40

37、91342303524776027247928851,0321,1311,2311,242118229352448558Y/Y7%(26%)(16%)(15%)(4%)(9%)(4%)(11%)(11%)(9%)(10%)(11%)(12%)(12%)(1%)(0%)(6%)(7%)Number of Deals8619214817417820621310515824716616629173172176131125Y/Y10%(12%)(1%)(31%)41%(8%)17%(38%)(16%)8%(20%)(26%)(66%)(10%)16%1%(26%)(39%)Average Deal S

38、ize ($mn)347697651699700610571648590597592601396685642699732880Y/Y(38%)(15%)2%28%5%(17%)10%(16%)2%0%(4%)11%14%(2%)(1%)(0%)5%44%Note: So me differences in issuance numbers due to calculatio n metho do lo gyNote:Formorecommentaryon2019issuanceforecasts,seeasummaryandlinkstoourcreditteamsreportsstartin

39、gonpage14.Source:Dealogic,Barclays Research.U.S. HY Corps (+64% May; +29% 2QTD): Up vs. easy compFIGURE 3U.S. High Yield Corporates Issuance Summary ($B)2015201620172018y/y2019*Feb$31$8$19$12-35%$21Quarter-22%Commentary:U.S. High Yield$34$31$16$177%$181%Mar$37$18$43$27-38%$22-18%Jan$19$6$19$2428%$17

40、-31%-Mayissuancewas$23B(+64%againstanU.S. High Yield$34$31$16$177%$181%Mar$37$18$43$27-38%$22-18%Jan$19$6$19$2428%$17-31%to-date is $41B (+29% y/y).-Forecast-Expectingflattomodestlywithmanyof thesametrendsas2018.Recap-Worsethan(down30%+).Recap-Somevs.aweaker2015/2016(andMay$34May$34$28$26$14-46%$236

41、4%- 2016 Recap: Tale of two halves with weak 1H (risk offJun$21$22$20$15-24%especiallyin1Q),followedby2H.Stilldown-14%y/yQuarter-25%bringingissuanceto$250B(-17%)Jul$12$13$11$7-32%-Recap:3rdconsecutiveyearofissuanceabove$300B.Aug$10$17$18$17-6%Company Notes:Sep$19$25$37$36-2%MCO/MIS:U.S.makesupthelio

42、nsshareofits(60%)anditsCorporateFinanceGroup(CFG)is50%ofmix 10%IG,3rd Quarter$41$55$66$61-8%10%HY,11%bankloans,and19%(includingOct$9$13$23$12-47%commercial paper and MTNs).Nov$23$15$26$6-77%SPGI/S&P: While comparatively more geographically diverse thanDec$3 $19 $18 $0 -100%Moodys,U.S.stillaccounts50

43、%+ofandsimilarly corporatemakeuproughly50%ofmix.4th Quarter$35$47$67$18-73%Full Year$252$216$276$189-32%$1901%- 2015 Recap: Flat issuance in 1H and but down 35%+ in 2H,*2019 FY based on B arclays Research Estimates$BMonthlyIssuanceTracker:Issuance Quarter:$B$B45$B4035302520151050Jan Feb Mar Apr May

44、Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016201720182019*Full4thQuarter3rdQuarter1st01002002016201720182019*Dealogic Comparison:Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19Total Issuance ($bn)22.837.114.729.523.015.815.78.417.819.01

45、9.023.633.122.429.6Y/Y21%30%(38%)(40%)(7%)(53%)(43%)(51%)(11%)(53%)(60%)(80%)(100%)(49%)61%12%(3%)87%YTD Issuance Tracking347.737.151.781.2104.2120.0135.7144.2162.0181.0192.3198.7198.719.042.675.798.1127.7Y/Y33%30%(1%)(20%)(17%)(25%)(28%)(30%)(28%)(32%)(34%)(39%)(43%)(49%)(18%)(7%)(6%)6%Number of De

46、als49593454423730172829211502635514254Y/Y32%16%(24%)(38%)(22%)(39%)(43%)(56%)(20%)(61%)(60%)(78%)(100%)(56%)3%(6%)-46%Average Deal Size ($mn)465628432545548428524496635656538428NA731675649534547Y/Y(9%)13%(18%)(3%)19%(23%)1%13%12%22%(0%)(6%)NA16%56%19%(3%)28%Note: So me differences in issuance number

47、s due to calculatio n metho do lo gyNote:Formorecommentaryon2019issuanceforecasts,seeasummaryandlinkstoourcreditteamsreportsstartingonpage14. Source:Dealogic,BarclaysResearchU.S. CLOs (-13% May; +15% 2QTD): Supply remains healthyFIGURE 4U.S. CLOsCommentaryMayU.S. CLOsCommentaryMayissuancewasahealthy

48、$10B(-13%y/y)followingastrong April;2Q-to-dateissuanceof$26Bisup+15%y/y.issaeisrlylat/;tris/rsts/isseletiso esstatialylr(%inMa;%D.Recap:Arecordyear.Recap:record2014levels.Recap:totheyearaheadofriskretentionrules,stillanotheryearofy/ydeclines(-26%)Recap:Down20%+y/y,withslowtotheyear.Recap:$124Bofissu

49、ancebrokerecordfrom2007($99B)Recap:$55BofissuanceasCLOssteadilyslowlymarket freeze in 2009.Company Notes:MCO/MIS:U.S.makesupthelionsshareofits(60%)andits CorporateFinanceGroup(CFG)is50%ofmix10%IG,10%HY,bankloans,and19%(includingmonitoring,paper andMTNs).SPGI/S&P:Whilecomparativelymoregeographicallyd

50、iversethan Moodys,U.S.stillaccounts50%+ofandsimilarly corporatemakeuproughly50%ofmix.2015201620172018y/y2019*y/yJan$5$1$2$7250%$5-29%Feb$8$2$9$1672%$13-14%Mar$16$4$9$1117%$118%1st Quarter$29$7$20$3365%$30-10%Apr$11$6$10$1110%$1645%May$6$5$10$1222%$10-13%Jun$13$8$15$13-13%2nd Quarter$31$19$35$363%$26

51、15%Jul$7$6$9$1011%Aug$6$6$12$1417%Sep$6$8$10$8-20%Quarter$19$20$31$323%Oct$7$8$12$9-25%Nov$4$9$13$134%Dec$8 $10 $9 $6 -33%4th Quarter$19$27$34$28-16%Full Year$97$72$119$1298%$123-5%*2019 FY based on B arclays Research EstimatesInstitutionalLeveragedLoan-asof5/30/19Historical,Forecast,andRequiredCLOI

52、ssuance$B$B02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019eS&PForecastDealogic Comparison for CLO IssuanceJan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18Nov-18Jan-18 Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Total Issuance ($bn)9.07.015.510.511.012.013.010.014.08.09.013.06.05.013.411.316.010.0Y/Y(15%)35%99%(35%)(4%)8

53、8%-43%133%(20%) (25%)4%(33%)(29%)(14%)8%(17%)YTD Issuance Tracking116.47.022.533.044.056.069.079.093.0101.0110.0123.0129.05.018.429.745.755.7Y/YNA35%73%13%9%19%15%18%28%22%16%15%11%(29%)(18%)(10%)4%(1%)Note: So me differences in issuance numbers due to calculatio n metho do lo gyNote:Formorecommenta

54、ryon2019issuanceforecasts,seeasummaryandlinkstoourcreditteamsreportsstartingonpage14. Source:Dealogic,BarclaysResearchU.S. CMBS (+117% May; +60% 2QTD): Finally, some signs of lifeFIGURE 5U.S. CMBS Issuance Summary ($B)U.S. Non-Agency CMBSMarket Commentary:Mayissuancecametolife-with$13Bofsupply(+117%

55、),the strongestmonthinhistory.2Q-to-dateissuanceis$16B,up60%y/y.Mostoftheissuancecameonsingleborrower side($7B;11deals),whereS&Pisstronger.issuanceisnow modestlyaheadof2018.Recap: 20%declines.Recap:Strongy/ygrowth.Recap:Latesurgetotheyear,stilldown-25%y/y.Recap: While2015issettoreachapost-2009highCM

56、BSissuance,the$95Bofconduit/SASBloanscameinbelow initialexpectationsasvolatilityweighedonthemarkettothe year.Recap:yearofy/ygrowthinissuance,$93Bofsupply is still far off 2007 peaks ($230B).Company Notes:MCO/MIS: Structuredmakesup19%ofwithCMBS accounting5%,RMBS3%and4%(remaining6%from CLOs/derivative

57、s).ismoredomestic-basedrelativetototal MIS,withU.S.makingup70%ofmixSPGI/S&P:Structuredfinanceaccounts14%ofand totalRatingsis60%tiedtoU.S.similarly,weslightly higherstructuredfinanceassetclasses.2015201620172018y/y2019*y/yJan$6$3$2$5167%$3-38%Feb$12$5$4$519%$730%Mar$11$8$9$98%$8-18%1st Quarter$29$16$

58、15$1931%$17-11%Apr$9$3$4$45%$3-25%May$8$6$9$6-29%$13117%Jun$10$2$11$129%Quarter$27$11$23$22-6%$1660%Jul$8$6$7$814%Aug$7$5$11$5-55%Sep$8$9$9$4-56%3rd Quarter$23$20$27$17-37%Oct$9$8$10$8-25%Nov$8$12$10$6-37%Dec$5 $9 $9 $5 -44%4th Quarter$22$29$29$19-35%Full Year$101$76$94$77-18%$71-8%*2019 FY based on

59、 B arclays Research EstimatesMonthlyIssuanceTracker:Issuance Quarter:$B$B14$B$BFull Year12104thQuarter86420Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepOct Nov Dec3rdQuarter1stQuarter02550752016201720182019*2016201720182019*Dealogic ComparisonJan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Jan-18 Feb-

60、19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19TotalIssuance($bn)Y/Y5%167%19%8%5%(29%)9%14%(55%) (56%)(25%)(37%)(44%)(38%)30%(18%) (25%)117%YTDIssuanceTrackingY/Y23%167%63%26%8%8%9%(3%)(10%) (12%) (15%)(18%)(38%)(3%)(11%) (13%)14%Note: So me differences in issuance numbers due to calculatio n metho do lo gyNote:Formorecomm