新能源：歐洲綠色協(xié)議如何拯救歐盟與土耳其的關(guān)系

1、NEW G R E THEPOLICYNEW G R E THEENERGIES:E N DEAL C AE U T O G E T HAsliA, d J ht a e_ to ra i_s o nJune 2 0 2 1SUMMARYEuropeans know that t h e E II needs tafter a c h aafter a c h aafter a c h ae n g i n g f e w years.after a c h ae n g i n g f e w years.The bloc also needs t o develop as distinct

2、 from Washington s r e - e ns distinct from Washington s r e - e ns distinct from Washington s r e - e ngage rrs distinct from Washington s r e - e ngage rrThrough close cooperation with Turkboth c h aboth c h aboth c h an d build trustThe sides have asharedandn developingt h e promising T u rkishE

3、U member statesboth c h an d build trustThe sides have asharedandn developingt h e promising T u rkishE U member statesE U member statesshould help TurkeE U member statesshould help TurkeEuropean Green Deal would bringThisThisThisrefreshed approach would n o tThisrightsb u t i t could startimprove o

4、ther areas o f t h e relationrightsb u t i t could startimprove other areas o f t h e relationimprove other areas o f t h e relationship.improve other areas o f t h e relationship.dependencyhydrocarbonsand, thereforI n the long run, such diversification would where Ankara has found itself a t logger

5、heac that plans t o construct a pipeline that w o u Egyptian gas fields. A t t h e heart o f Turkey that i t will b e unable t o access energy r e s c across the Mediterranean i s costly and p o s s pipeline that may o r may not b e built, t h e form o f green partnership for t h e Mediterra rivals.

6、dependencyhydrocarbonsand, thereforEncouraging Turkey a n di e ov t ehl to r pe M ne ad t i i t ve er r ea nn ee ragn support theE U s policy o n i t s souther nneiMediterranean . Hoping t o protect and r e s t o C o u n c i 1 s ao i f dn t 1A 印 r E U that the Blue Economy r c Mediterranean commongo

7、ods, thus p r o m o t i ni t reconciles economic growth, improved 1 i protection and restoration o f marine and c o use, t h e promotion o f sustainable tourism, though t h e E Ui sn o t opposedt o t he c o n s t rupromotion o f renewable energy sources and Mediterraneangas fields even less e c o n

8、o m iD e c o u p 1Ankara froD e c o u p 1Ankara froBiden invited Erdogan t o t h e U S climate s u i n Turkish-US relations for t h e momentwsuch a s Turkey s purchase o f t h e S - 4 0 0 and perhaps signalling the strain o n their a 1 1 i a o f trying not t o offend Turkey o n the A r m e r Armenia

9、ns i n t h e Ottoman Empire a s g e n o c i d between t h e t w o countries, a s evidenced b y differences over Syria, Russia, and Turkey will b e i n this.Europeans should n o tallow their relationsties. Instead, they should develop a c 1 i m a t neighbourhoodprimarily o n - o Dkh,elaHt.alEuropeans

10、 should n o tallow their relationswould complement t h e high-level messaging influence i n regions close t o i t , and test t i n countries with which i t has close ties.The approach might also help Europe gain p Europe has complained that i t lacks such 1 e behaviour, particularly the country s r

11、e v e r official sk new that, a t i t s heart, this 1 e v e process effectively dead Europe had n o t h i n o t strengthen Turkey s democracy per s e , I format that promoted rules-based managemer new economic narrative that could improve country s economic indicators look weak. A i n the last t w o

12、 decades, with high u n e m p 1 o ) Turkey s economic standards i n line with t positive message t o financial markets.How t o promote a g r e e EuropeSince t h e formation o f t h e customs union i n meet E U requirements. During this time, 1 e economicinstitutions,including the CentraExchangeCommi

13、ssion.But many o f Turkey s economic reforms f r o rr the Erdogan government o r have become o u t c suffers from a personalised system o f g o v e r customs union, some o f whose provision sh a existing deal expedites exports and imports private sector, including public procuremen foil o Mianr m ht

14、 h2e0 21 E U, CT ou ur ik (e iy 1 acnodn cEl uu rs oi po en s w i 1 1 committees t o identify areas that need mode regime. A formal process t o bring Turkey sEuropean Green Deal should b e one o f t h e cWith a strong lobbying arm i n Brussels, T U o n identifying: key areas where Turkish i n d Euro

15、pean funds are available for this a d j u s Turkish sectors. The organisation has also Agreement and p rodroncpje 由 ne ipasucibtvli do sndi tepuddaynn. 402。 examined various scenarios for compliance, exports. The study concluded:while the Eualso b e a n opportunity t o serve a s a t r a n s f commit

16、ment t o this strategic transformation funds t o allow a green transformation t o c o increase i n GDP and a reduction i n g r e e n h o strategy shows u s that i t i s possible t o i n c reduction goals and, therefore, provides a 1While t h e cost o f adaptation varies from s e leap now would help

17、Turkey retain i t s comp possibly replace China i n the production c h advanced and interested than Ankara i n this Turkish government t o g o along b y offering initiative s potential t o boost Turkey s g 1 o would b e new visibility a s a partner o f t h eAnother advantage o f t h e European Green

18、 D( more balanced geopolitical disposition. Anl Russia, improve relations with Europe, andThere i s support for t h i s u fr rwoefny p R)U i ye nnn ab ke er r s member states that t h e European Council o n China are t h e actors that E U policymakers f issue, Turkey looms large i n t h e second t i

19、 e with t h e country are generally stronger, a n felt more acutely (as seen i n , for instance, member states have a n interest i n mutual s u adapt t o climate change.The first stage o f eng European Green DealThe European Green Deal creates a real o p p relations. Neither side should waste time a

20、 this right, i t will gain a new kind o f i n f 1 u process. The E U would also have a model t h t h e transatlantic partnershipone that i spartnership, and uses t h e full range o f t o o wrong, relations with Turkey may continue issue o n which t o begin a constructive c o n vThe trade relationshi

21、p should b e a t t h e c e n n o t only apply charges t o carbon-intensive transition away from carbon use. A s a n o t h e should offer the country a funding package member states through! he Just Transition F i n Turkey would fill a current gap.While T urkish-European engagement o n t h e democrat

22、ic o r human rights standards, i t w o legislative frameworktherebyprotecting upgrade o f T u r k e y s customs union would t a compliance with E U standards o n transparen labour issues. The upgrade would also even which i s known for i t s relatively assertive could even help Turkey and Europe res

23、tart c importantly, t h e alternative n o t engaging modernisationcould cause t h e country t oI n addition, a s Turkey i s a critical energy d e v e 1 o p a common renewable energy areahwith a n E U commitment t o import the energy European Council s January conclusions and Mediterranean.I n t h e

24、long term, a dialogue between t h e E U potential t o reduce tensions i n t h e eastern t h e lead inconvincing Mediterranean m e m b e reduce their dependency o n hydrocarbons, m relevant. One way o f preventing t h e M e d i t e Europe s doorstep i s t o encourage partnersh Cypriot communities, a

25、s well a s between T uThe presentation o f this package will matte down t h e details o f t h e European Green Dea i t s impact. E U officials should start t o cor within t h e bloc. The E U should begin a t r a think through the parameters o f t h e partner table, including stakeholders from Turkis

26、h groups, a s well a s politicians o n both side importance o f the Turkish diaspora i n Germ engagement with t h e discussion.The transition away from a carbon-intensive they can use t o set their relations o n a m o i popular i n Turkey, where a desire for c 1 i m a create a new framework t o guid

27、e a difficult between them. But, i f both sides have a con mood music enough t o inspire positive d e v eAbout the authorsAsli Ay d ii sn t aa ss be an si o r policy fellow a t t h e E u works o n Turkey s foreign policy, relations joined E C F R after a lengthy careerin journ Ankara bureau chief, a

28、nd later Id s cf h il m en ni es m .i How the Turkey-UAE r i V A Ip rr yi 1 D s2 沈 1ms)- E in nd g v & H s Turkey and new east e fM aNf e a 0 t2 eO r) r. a n e a n c o n f 1Susi D e in sn i as os ne n i o r policy fellow a t t h e E u r o f E C F R s European Power programme. I n t h and politics t

29、o achieve a collective E U for i n cEiudpe s green moment :(HA op wr i d / S it , d fi b dconfidence:How Euro p (e Ja un ns e s 生色 2dl)eir placeAcknowledgmentsThe authors are grateful t o a 1 1 those who a paper. W e would also like t o thank c o 1 1 e a g u developed our arguments, and i n particul

30、ar really appreciate Chris Raggett s editing, remain t h e authors own._IJnterviewwith a representative o f a TurkZoom, May 2 0 2 1ABOUT E C F R TOC o 1-5 h z The European Councilo n Foreign Relations( E C F R ) i sthLaunched i n October 2 0 0 7, i t s objective i st o conductracross Europe o n t h

31、e development o f coherent, effective E C F R has developedastrategy with three distinctivee1eApan-European Council. E C F R hasbroughttogetherahundred Memberspoliticians, decisionmakers, thinEU s member states and candidatecountrieswhichmThrough geographical and thematictask forces, m e mbandfeedba

32、ck on policyideas and helpwith E C F R sa cTheCouncil i s chairedb y Carl Bildt,L y k ke Friis,a n,Aphysical presence i n t h e main EU memberstates.E (think-tanks, has offices i n Berlin, London, Madrid, 1 offices are platforms for research, debate, advocacy Developing contagious ideas that g e t p

33、eople talking, distinguished researchers and practitioners from a 1 1 research and policy development projects with a p an- o r i g i n a Iresearch; publishespolicyreports;hosts prfriendso f E C F Rgatheringsi n E Ucapitals; and rea cE C F R i s a registered charityfunded b yt h e OpenSocietyfoundat

34、ions, individuals andcorporateentities.These dadvocate for a values-based E U foreign policy. E C F R w o r and organisations but does n eoc t f rm. ki e grants t o individualThe European Council o n Foreign Relations does not take publications o f t h eEuropean Council o n Foreign R e 1 a t i oauth

35、ors. Copyrighto f this publicationi s held b y t h e E umay n o t copy, reproduce, republish o r circulate i n any v for your own personal and non-commercial use. Any o t h e permission o f t h e European Councilo n ForeignRelations9 7 8 - 1 - 9 .1 3P3u4b71-i9sSh-e4d b y t h e EuropeanCouncil o nFor

36、eign RTennyson House, 15 9 -16 5 Great Portland Street, LondonIntroductionTurkey has not been a n easy neighbour for regarded a s a poster child for Europe s p o w t h e way t o joining t h e European Union and Lately, i t has been closer t o a symbol o f t I abandoned i t s democratic reforms and m

37、ade the E U s t o p geopolitical challenges. I n t h Libya have troubled European leaders, w h i 1 member states enough for Brussels t o c o n s iThat said, Turkey i s more o f a f r e n e m y t h indispensable. A s tc ho en cEl uuard oes pd ea ab nl e C o ai In ac ti il o nr s b Europe i s necessar

38、y for many reasons, ran democrats i n Turkey, who overwhelmingly si accession process i s moribund, most member President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for t h e s a k After European Commissi odne nP iar e e cis h d fe m t o rtJ r as uv 1 i a i n April 2 0 2 1, media reports focused o n I t a a s a dictator.

39、 Y e t i t was t h e rest o f Draghi one must b e frank i n expressing difference ensure t h e interests o f one s country .Europe has been searching for that elusive relationship with Ankara b u t does n o t i n a d v European norms and regulations. I n search t o view t h e modernisation o f the c

40、ustoms u r i n their relationship. A push t o modernise between t h e sides would help Europeans i n c steps from Turkey i n i t s trade regulations, rules-based engagement with Turkey.A key component o f that modernisation proc Green Deal. B y working with Turkey o n how well a s t h e climate chal

41、lenge more broadly, i t from redefining i t s partnership with A n kBringBringBringNew energies: How t h e E u ro p eEaCnF Rj/r3b% 91 Dealpreparedness for t h e transition away from a achieve n e t zero b y 2 0 5 0 b u t both p 1 a y e framework f o r s u c h action i n the European t o encourage t

42、h e Turkish government t o dev framework o f rulesa t a time when c o n c e r rBringEuropean norms has blocked any other formAdditionally, entering into a discussion w i Turkey s business community and civil s o c i over the years, and have emerged a s t h e key business community i s well-organised

43、, e c o n interests o f the country. Business o r g a n i s a Association (TUSIAD) and the Foreign E c o n society groups, have been trying t o steer t environmentally friendly economic model. T economy i s good for Turkey and, i n the 1 o n competitive advantage i n the European mark would mean gai

44、n latera s this approach w ogreen economic revolution. B y entering neg E U would embolden t h e pro-European e 1 e m e n relationship with t h e E U .Finally, there are t h e benefits for Europe t i t s own form o f climate leadership that con- want t o support t h e Biden administration s sustain

45、their strategic autonomy through t h litmus test for this new European role. A n k doorstep one that i t cannot afford t o i g n c between Ankara and Washington seem tumult Turkey. B y working with Turkey o n t h e Euro t h e issue i n line with i t s strategic o b j e c t iThis paper briefly outlin

46、es t h e state o f p 1 c table, before suggesting how cooperation o i i f handled carefully provide openings o nBringNew energies: How t h e E u ro p eEaCnF Rj/r3b% 91 DealEU-TurkeyBringEU-TurkeyEU-Turkeye 1 a t i o n sThroughout much o f 2 0 2 0, European p o 1 i c y m Ankara effectively and deter

47、some o f i t s d i attempt o f 2016, Ankara blamed t h e United support Turkey s crackdown o n civil society member states were often damaged b y i t s d e spats between Erdogan and European leaders despite t h e bromance between President D the Russian-made S - 4 0 0 missile defence s y s backed Sy

48、rian Kurdish forces, and t h e high- H a 1 k b a n k , a leading Turkish state bank, i nEU-Turkeye 1 a t i o n sDrifting from t h e West, Ankara also started national security, a s seen i n i t s growing m 2 0 19, Ankara formally entered t h e Libyan c based Government o f National Accord t o pus wa

49、s backed b y the United Arab Emirates, R u memberstates, including France.I n recent years, Turkey has redrawn battle often working i n opposition t o t h e U A E , E g into Europe itself with E U member states i n t h e eastern Mediterranean. Turkey was a t signed a maritime demarcation agreement w

50、 i vessels off t h e Cypriot coast t o stake i t s c Turkish naval ships s t a cr Id 1 te s ifcoxiine e h h 6 rr e de ok w a i coastguard vessels that heightened tensions Mediterranean looked well within the realmThere were t w o main challenges for E u r o p e a conditions for de-escalation with Tu

51、rkey i n establish a more stable partnership with T u t h e 2 0 16 refugee deal between t h e sides (wi there was n o chance that T u r k e y would r e t u making i t politically difficult for E u r o p e aTurkey.Nonetheless, t h e wish t o avert a military c arguments about the need for energy s h

52、a r i nsomesomesomestatesEurope offered Turkey a new deal t o d e - e s c partnership with Ankara. During the German 2 0 2 0, Chancellor Angela Merkel played a c r exploration vessels off t h e coast o f Cyprus direct talks with Greece o n bilateral m a r i t expressed a desire t o adopt a positive

53、a g e n dynamic i n t h e relationship and paving t h e new negotiations o n a n upgrade o f the c u s t csomeThe European Union i s ready t o engage w i t manner t o enhance c o o p e r a t i os na itidln e a C nd ui m b fe Ir conclusions o f March 2 0 2 1. The Council i n v t o address current dif

54、ficulties i n t h e i m p 1 e application t o a 1 1 Member States, and i n v i t the modernisation o f t h e Customs Union .O f course, this i s neither a honeymoon nor i s a n effort t o establish a modus vivendi b This year, t h e eastern Mediterranean has b e attempts a t energy exploration. Turk

55、ish off a n effort t o improve Turkey s regional and with some o f i t s regional rivals, including i t s decision o n whether t o pursue customs u first meeting between U S President Joe B i d margins o f the NATO summit.There i s reason t o b e cautiously optimistic not because i t i s eager t o r

56、eturn t o E U nor t h e table i s a transactional economic p a r t n t h e kind o f relationship they have, and t h a survives tough times. For Turkey s p r e s i d e n prospects dim, a new trade relationship w i tEurope, grapplingEurope, grapplingEurope, grapplingwith t h elosingEurope, grapplingwi

57、th t h elosingCriticism o f a deal wB u t n o t everyone i s happy. Some member s t a arrangement will marginalise Turkey s demo reform during t h e accession process, while elements o f Turkish s o c i ce at lylf. dT ht eh eE i rues 國(guó) eains i E Uaccession talks unless t h e country urgeThe human ri

58、ghts community i n Turkeyarguehard enough for i t s failure t o abide b y E U Human Rightsdecisions o n t h e imprisonmentsociety leader Osman K a v a 1 a .Yet, s o far, doing t h e opposite using t h e improvement i n Turkey s domestic scene. T h i n reversing Turkey s democratic decline, b with An

59、kara o n t h e European Green Deal, t h avoid making political concessions t o E r d o European Turks. Trade relations require t r a upgrade i t s customs union, i t would have t o academic world, and eventually adopt the n preparing.I n the absence o f any progress o n Turkey s align with E U legis

60、lation could promote ae c o n Ad cmcyo. rt d) i it e Confederation o f European B t oaddress existing barrierst o trade and i ra neffective, depoliticised,disputes e t t 1 e rrt h e rule o f law, accountability, transparen Commission should also address t h e current customs procedures.The E U s amb