在線旅游展望：采取攻勢遵循不同的增長路徑

1、28 January 2019 Americas/United States Equity Research Consumer InternetResearchAnalystsStephenJu212 3258662 HYPERLINK mailto:stephen.ju Philip Wang,Ph.D.212 5383458 HYPERLINK mailto:philip.wang YoniYadgaran212 3256206 HYPERLINK mailto:yoni.yadgaran NicoleDSouza212 3256659 HYPERLINK mailto:nicole.ds

2、ouza InternetCOMMENTCOMMENTOnline Travel Outlook 2019: Going on the Offensive, Following Divergent Growth PathsInvestment Case: We have maintained our Outperform ratings on BKNG and EXPE, as well as a Neutral rating for TRIP shares. Our preference is to own BKNG over EXPE given the greater upside po

3、tential to our updated price targets. In the near term we acknowledge that 1Q19 profitability guidance may be below consensus for all three and we will be looking to take larger positions in both BKNG and EXPE shares on apullback.BKNG: We expect the company to highlight for 2019 a broader rollout of

4、 a mediated payment solution for merchant bookings to open up B to additional global online payment solutions. This should result in a reduction of payment friction which enables greater targeting of outbound demand from China (among other countries). To that end, we expect B to invest near term int

5、o local customer service as well as stepped-up marketing dollars, in pursuit of what we believe will be $23b in outbound accommodations demand from China. While we have been anticipating the rise of China outbound travel to serve as a more positive catalyst for some time, we believe the payments as

6、well as other product updates put the company in a better position to address theopportunity.EXPE: Our thesis boils down to cascading benefits starting with 1) greater accommodation inventory, 2) improved selection and shopping experience,3) higher conversion rate, 4) greater marketing efficiency an

7、d ultimately higher operating margins. And we submit that Expedia is in a better position to deliver given management bandwidth is now focused more on integration (vs acquisition) as well as a transition to the cloud. Further our checks showing 17% sequential increase in property availability and In

8、stant Confirmation availability stepping up materially for HomeAway serve as validation points. The ongoing increase of selection and the decrease of booking friction should be met with greater demand/traffic acquisition. We have hence increased our direct advertising cost assumptions for 2019, whic

9、h leads us to decrease 2019 Adj. EBITDA by3.2%.TRIP: Following modest declines in the Hotel segment revenue - which was primarily driven by a decline in Hotel Shopper growth following the decision to pull back on inefficient marketing as well as a continued mix shift in Non-Hotel revenue away from V

10、acation Rentals towards both Experiences and Restaurants, we continue to expect TripAdvisor to signal greater investments in the latter in a bid to consolidate supply and demand. We therefore expect the FCF from the Hotels segment to continue to be redeployedaccordingly.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BA

11、CK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Creditto do in its As a be the a of of as a in Online Travel Outlook 2019: Going on the Offensive and Following Divergent Growth PathsAlthough investors

12、 may be accustomed to looking at this group in relation to each other, we believe 2019 will be the year in which the growth paths for each of Booking, Expedia, and TripAdvisor will start to more meaningfully diverge along with their productfocus.Starting with Booking Holdings, we expect the company

13、to highlight for 2019 a broader rollout of a mediated payment solution for merchant bookings to help open up B to additional global online payment solutions. This should result in a reduction of payment friction which enables greater targeting of outbound demand from China (among other countries). T

14、o that end, we expect B to invest near term into local customer service as well as stepped-up marketing dollars, in pursuit of what we believe will be $23 billion in outbound accommodations demand from China. While we have been anticipating the rise of China outbound travel to serve as a more positi

15、ve catalyst for some time, we believe the payments as well as other product updates put the company in a better position to address the opportunity. We hence anticipate lower profit guidance in the near term and a potential pullback in BNKG shares that we will look to use as a buyingopportunity.Movi

16、ng on to Expedia, our investment thesis boils down to cascading benefits starting with greater accommodation inventory, which leads to improved selection and shopping experience, which should then result in a higher conversion rate, and subsequently greater marketing efficiency and ultimately higher

17、 operating margins. While a thesis dependent on operating margin expansion for EXPE shares is not new, we submit that the company is in a much better position to deliver given that managements bandwidth now focused more on integration versus acquisition as well as the transition to the cloud which s

18、hould offer a more stable technology platform. To that end we believe that our checks indicating property availability sequentially increasing 17% and Instant Confirmation availability stepping up materially during November for HomeAway serve as validation points on the thesis. That said we also bel

19、ieve the ongoing increase of selection and the decrease of booking friction should be met with greater demand and traffic acquisition. We have hence increased our direct advertising cost assumptions for 2019, which leads us to a 3.2% decrease to AdjustedEBITDA.Lastly for TripAdvisor, as we exit a ye

20、ar with modest declines in the Hotel segment revenue - which was primarily driven by a decline in Hotel Shopper growth following the decision to pulls back on inefficient marketing as well as a continued mix shift in Non- Hotel revenue away from Vacation Rentals towards both Experiences and Restaura

21、nts, we continue to expect TripAdvisor to signal greater investments in the latter in a bid to consolidate supply and demand. We therefore expect the FCF from the Hotels segment to continue to be redeployedaccordingly.We have maintained our Outperform ratings on BKNG and EXPE shares, as well as a Ne

22、utral rating for TRIP shares. Our preference is to own BKNG over EXPE given the greater upside potential to our target. We acknowledge that 1Q19 profitability guidance may be below consensus for all three and we will be looking to take advantage of any pullbacks to take larger positions in both BKNG

23、 and EXPE shares.Near Term Data Points Indicate Stable Trends in Europe, Mixed for the Americas and APACWe track the airline traffic data in Europe, Americas, and APAC as a means to monitor the health in overall demand for travel, particularly as airlines release monthly load data.We believe the dem

24、and environment to be stable in Europe as 4Q18 to date is exhibiting modest acceleration versus the deceleration shown in the first three quarters of the year.Figure 1: Airline Traffic YOY Growth- EuropeFigure 2: Airline Traffic YOY Growth -APAC14%12%10%8%14%10.9%11.2%10.9%11.2%9.5%8.6%7.3%3.4%13.3%

25、6.0%10%8%11.8%11.0% 11.8%11.0% 10.8%10.1%7.8%7.7%9.1%7.5%4%4%2%2%0%1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Oct/Nov0%1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Oct/NovSource: Company data, CreditSuisseestimatesSource: Company data, Credit SuisseestimatesIn Asia however, we believe macro headwinds in China may be

26、driving a fairly hefty sequential deceleration in monthly load data.In the Americas 4Q18 to date is showing a modest deceleration in airline load data as we hit tougher comparisons.Figure 3: Airline Traffic YOY Growth Americas5.8%6.2%5.8%6.2%4.6%4.6%3.8%3.4%6.8%4.7%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q1

27、7 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Oct/NovSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesAs for the regional ADRs per STR, the charts below show the ADR trends to be stable in Europe 4Q18 versus 3Q18:Figure 4: ADR Year On Year Growth Trend -Europe6.0%4.0%6.0%4.0%10%5%Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-

28、12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-1

29、5 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18-5%-10%Source: STR, Credit SuisseIn contrast to the softening airline traffic data, ADR trends in Asia appears to be relatively stable versus 3Q18.Figure 5: ADR Year On Year Growth Trend -APAC25%20%15%10%5%0%

30、1.5%1.5%Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 J

31、ul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18-10%-15%Source: STR, Credit SuisseLastly for the Americas, ADR trends appear to be on a relatively stable-to-deteriorating vector for 4Q18.28 Januar

32、y 2019Figure 6: ADR Year On Year Growth Trend -Americas7%6%5%4%3.1%3%2%1.7%1%0%Source: STR, Credit Suisse5InternetJan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-

33、17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-1828 January 2019Figure 6: ADR Year On Year Growth Trend -Americas7%6%5%4%3.1%3%2%1.7%1%0%Source: STR, Credit Suisse5InternetAmericas/United States Consumer InternetRatingPrice(25-Jan-19, US$)1802.20Target price (US$) (from 2240.00) 2250.00 52-weekpricerange(US$)22

34、06.09-1616.83 Market cap(US$ m)Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)Mediated Payment Solution, and Direct Entry forB intoChinaEnterprise value(US$B intoChinaTarget price is for 12 months.ResearchAnalystsStephenJu212 3258662 HYPERLINK mailto:stephen.ju Philip Wang,Ph.D.212 5383458 HYPERLINK mailto:philip.wang

35、 YoniYadgaran212 3256206 HYPERLINK mailto:yoni.yadgaran NicoleDSouza212 3256659 HYPERLINK mailto:nicole.dsouza Share priceperformance2,3002,1001,9001,7001,500A p r- 18l -18O ct- 18Jan - 19BKNG.OQS& P 5 0 0IN D EXEvent: We preview 4Q18 results as well as 2019 for Booking. We maintain our Outperform r

36、ating and increase our target price to $2,250 (vs prior$2,240) due to increased FCF benefits from a faster mix shift to merchant bookings (vs agency). Our 2019 EPS is $94.48 vs prior $98.12.Investment Thesis: We expect the broader rollout of a mediated payment solution for merchant bookings to help

37、open up B to additional global online payment solutions the net result of this is a reduction of payment friction which enables greater targeting of outbound demand from China (among other countries). To that end, we expect B to invest near term into local customer service as well as stepped-up mark

38、eting dollars, in pursuit of what we believe will be $23b in outbound accommodations demand from China. And while we have been anticipating the rise of China outbound travel to serve as a more positive catalyst for some time, we believe the payments as well as other product updates put the company i

39、n a better position to address the opportunity. While this will result in what we anticipate to be lower profit guidance in the near term and a potential pullback in BNKG shares, we will be buyers as we maintain our Outperform rating on the following thesis points: 1) potential for better-than- expe

40、cted room nights and gross booking growth due to the reduction of payment friction, 2) open ended outbound travel growth opportunity in China,3) optionality for better-than-expected FCF generation due to a more aggressive shift to merchant.Valuation: Our DCF-based price target which contemplates a 1

41、0.5% WACC and 3% terminal growth increases to $2,250 from $2,240 prior. The risks include competition with OTA peers and marketingdeleverage.Financial andvaluationmetrics Year12/17A12/18E12/19EEPS (Excl. ESO) (US$)46.9087.0788.26EPS (CSadj.,)77.1089.5594.48Prev. EPS (CSadj.,US$)-89.7598.12P/E (CSadj

42、.)(x)23.420.119.1P/E rel. (CSadj.,%)115.0122.4123.0Revenue(US$m)12,681.114,463.015,796.9EBITDA (US$ m)4,867.25,681.36,115.1Net Debt(US$m)1,408203-4,882On 25-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2664.76 Daily Jan26, 2018 - Jan25, 2019, 01/26/18 = US$1950.48OCFPS (US$)P/OCF (x)93.4219.3116.8615.4118.3

43、915.2Quarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q4Number of shares (m)46.33Price/Sales(x)5.932017A9.88 15.14 35.22 16.862018E12.00 20.67 37.78 19.102019E9.09 22.13 42.82 20.44BV/share (Next Qtr., US$) Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) Dividend yield (%)234.4P/BVPS (x)203.3Dividend(current,-US$)7.6-Source: Company data, Thomson R

44、euters, Credit Suisse estimatesBooking Holdings Inc. (BKNG)Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19ERevenue (US$ m)12,681.114,463.015,796.9Sales12,681.114,463.0Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19ERevenue (US$ m)12,681.114,463.015,796.9Sales12,681.114,463.015,796.9EBITDA4,867.25,681.36,115.1Operating profit4,

45、538.05,297.15,617.9Recurring profit4,398.35,291.15,647.8Cash Flow12/17A12/18E12/19ECash flow from operations4,6625,6035,610CAPEX000Free cashflow to the firm4,6625,6035,610Cash flow from investments(4,202)1,741(426)Net share issue(/repurchase)-Dividends paid000Issuance (retirement) of debt-Other(79)(

46、5,592)0Cashflow from financing activities(79)(5,592)0Effect of exchange rates100(37)0Changes in Net Cash/Debt4621,2055,085Net debt at end1,408203(4,882)Balance Sheet ($US)12/17A12/18E12/19EAssetsOther current assets5,2754,6464,717Total current assets9,03510,34415,771Total assets25,45125,21130,568Lia

47、bilitiesShort-term debt71400Total current liabilities3,5013,8184,580Long-term debt8,8108,6408,739Total liabilities14,19114,24215,104Shareholder equity11,26110,96915,464Total liabilities and equity25,45125,21130,568Net debt1,408203(4,882)Per share12/17A12/18E12/19ENo. of shares (wtd avg)504847CS adj.

48、 EPS77.1089.5594.48Prev. EPS (US$)-89.7598.12Dividend (US$)0.000.000.00Company BackgroundCompany BackgroundBooking Holdings Inc. is a global online travel company that also offers its customers the opportunity to purchase hotel room reservations, car rentals, airline tickets, vacation packages, crui

49、ses, and destination services in a price-disclosedmanner.Blue/Grey Sky Scenario(from(from2800.00)2700.00Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) Free cash flowpershare93.42116.86118.39 Earnings12/17A12/18E12/19ESales growth (%)18.014.19.2EBIT growth (%)Net profit growth (%)17.811.64.3EPS growth (%)9.985.61.4Valu

50、ation12/17A12/18E12/19EValuation12/17A12/18E12/19EEV/Sales (x)6.705.794.98EV/EBIT (x)18.715.814.0We have also elected to run a blue/grey sky scenario for BKNGshares leveraging historic P/E multiples on next twelve month EPS estimates. BKNG shares historically traded at 14.8x-26.8x with an average of

51、 20.2x and a standard deviation of 2.5x. In terms of upside potential, we apply a high-end multiple of 26.8x to our 2020 EPS estimate and derive a blue sky scenario of$2700.(from(from1800.00)1650.00Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$)As we apply a low end P/E multiples of 17.7x to our 2019 EPS estimate, we d

52、erive a grey sky scenario of$1650.Share priceperformanceQuarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q4 P/E (x)23.420.119.1 Quarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q42017A9.8815.1435.2216.862018E12.0020.6737.7819.10 2019E9.0922.1342.8220.44 2,3002,1001,9001,7001,500Apr- 18l -18Oct- 18Jan - 19BKNG.OQS&P 500 INDEXOn 25-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX c

53、losed at 2664.76 Daily Jan26, 2018 - Jan25, 2019, 01/26/18 = US$1950.48Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesBooking Holdings Inc. (BKNG): Mediated Payment Solution, and Direct Entry for B into ChinaBooking Holdings will be reporting 4Q18 results likely in early February. We

54、maintain our Outperform rating and increase our target price to $2250 (from $2240 prior) due to free cash flow benefits from what we expect to be a greater mix shift to merchant versus agency. Our 2019 EPS is now $94.48 vs prior $98.12.Increased incidence of merchant transactions as a percentage of

55、gross bookings has been a well-established dynamic for some time, with Agoda as well as alternative accommodations/vacation rentals growing at a faster velocity. That said one less- publicized driver has been Bookings rollout of a mediated payment solution on behalf of its hotelier/property partners

56、.We view this as a structurally similar move (also working with Adyen as well as Stripe) to what eBay has done as it looks to separate from PayPal, with the potential benefits to the supply and demand side of the marketplace, and to Booking in the following ways:Property owners: potentially lower tr

57、ansactional fees for the independent hoteliers versus the current option of accepting credit cards upon checkout on an agency booking, as well as the incremental effort to deal withchargebacksConsumer: the partnership with Adyen and Stripe should open up additional online payment sources to include

58、AliPay, etc. which should in turn increase choiceBooking: decreased payment friction, increased conversion rate, and what should therefore result in higher ROI on ad spend and/or the opening of new markets where the cost of customer acquisition versus the lifetime value previously never made senseTh

59、e last part is critical as the turning on of AliPay enables what we believe to be a more aggressive and direct entry into China for the B brand for outbound traffic we believe we are seeing the initial signs of this already.From a strategic/product, financial, and stock perspective we draw the follo

60、wing conclusions:Transformative entry into what should eventually prove to be Bookings largest outbound market over the longer term, as well as faster-than-expected room nights/gross bookinggrowthLower initial profit guidance as we expect the company to invest in advertising and customer service inC