京東物流-2618.HK-3Q22并表德邦盈利能力企穩(wěn)回升

本研究報告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司，海通證券印度私人有限公司，海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團其他各成員單位的證券研究團隊所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證aimerlumelume22Nov20223Q22并表德邦，盈利能力企穩(wěn)回升ConsolidatingDepponintoFinancialResultswithMarginsPickingUpinQ22觀點聚焦InvestmentFocus 維持優(yōu)于大市MaintainOUTPERFORM級級發(fā)行股票數(shù)目最高最低值HK$90.78bn/US$11.60bn0.0-0.0-0.0US$18.55mn 6,597mn21%HK$31.50-HK$10.96注：現(xiàn)價HK$13.76為2022年注：現(xiàn)價HK$13.76為2022年11月21日收盤價50Nov-21Jul-221mth3mth12mth絕對值3.0%-2.3%-55.2%絕對值(美元)3.3%-2.0%-55.4%相對MSCIChina-3.4%7.8%(Rmbmn)Dec-21ADec-22EDec-23EDec-24E營業(yè)收入104,693135,408179,651211,115(+/-)43%29%33%18%凈利潤44892,134(+/-)全面攤薄EPS(Rmb)n.m.n.a.n.a.337%-0.230.000.070.32毛利率5.5%7.9%9.0%凈資產(chǎn)收益率n.m.n.m.1.3%5.5%市盈率資料來源：公司信息,HTIn.m.2158116939(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)3Q22，京東物流錄得營業(yè)收入358億元，同比增速接近40%，Non-收入：公司3Q22收入為358億元(30.5%來自京東集團，69.5%來自其他客戶)，同比增長38.9%，總收入的增長受來自ISC客戶收入增加6.6%以及來自其他客戶收入增長102.8%所驅(qū)動。ISC客戶收入增長主要受到外部ISC客戶數(shù)增長及ARPC增加帶動。帶來收入貢獻的外部ISC客戶數(shù)量從3Q21的56616名，增長至62629名，對應(yīng)ARPC由109060元增長至115195元。3Q22來自其客戶收入為175億元，同比增長102.8%，主要由于公司快遞快運業(yè)務(wù)增長及合并德邦集團帶來。利潤：公司3Q22Non-IFRS利潤為4.5億，去年同期虧損5.7億。公司3Q22經(jīng)營成本為331億元，同比增長35.3%，與收入增速趨勢Q7.4%，錄得凈虧損1.49億元，但根據(jù)Non-IFRS準則，錄得利潤為4.5億，同比扭虧。并購德邦，業(yè)績增輝。3Q22德邦貢獻的并表收入約為58億元。德邦股份3Q22實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤2.56億，7月26日開始并表，我們認為德邦并表對公司業(yè)績有較大貢獻。盈利預(yù)測與建議：我們預(yù)計，2020-2025年，公司外部收入復(fù)合增速將達到39.3%，超過公司27.9%的總收入復(fù)合增速，其中2022年公司總收入達到1354億元/+29.3%YoY，外部收入達到871億元/+47.4%YoY。我們預(yù)計，2022年，公司的Non-IFRS凈利潤有望實現(xiàn)盈虧平衡，達到370萬元。由于公司處于產(chǎn)能爬坡、業(yè)務(wù)高速擴張期，我們?nèi)圆捎肞S估值法，給予公司2023年1.2倍PS(原為2022年1.5xPS)，上調(diào)公司目標(biāo)價至37.1港幣(原目標(biāo)價34.5港風(fēng)險提示:疫情影響，宏觀經(jīng)濟增長低于預(yù)期，業(yè)務(wù)拓展不及預(yù)期，車輛及設(shè)備利用率低于預(yù)期，人力成本大幅提升。comuCFAseccomuohtiseccomlluohtiseccom222Nov20222ISIS(RMBm)020021022E023E024ERevenue73,375104,693135,408179,651211,115COGS3)2)4)BITEBIT(ex-sharebasedpayment)3Netfinancingincome(expense)ShareofresultsofanassociateandjointventuresMinorityinterests482Netincome(loss)toordequity(4,134)(15,842)(1,474)(1,193)5Aincometoordequity710(1,226)44892,134Adj.basicEPS(RMB/share)0.4423)0.000.070.32BalanceSheet(RMBm)020021022E023E024ECash82Tradereceivable73Inventory33202Totalcurrentassets29,14045,40149,15054,69355,678ghtofuseassets61Propertyandequipment51Prepayments,otherreceivables/assets,218IntangibleassetsTotalnon-currentassets394658,92040Totalassets54,72376,79589,115103,613115,218TradepayableLeaseliabilities,619Totalcurrentliabilities26,33924,54635,00244,19252,946Leaseliabilities9Totalnon-currentliabilities31,2781,8603,7198,5409,257Totalliabilities57,61736,40648,72262,73172,202Sharecapital0.90.9Reserves98292929AccumulatedlossesMinorityinterestsTotalshareholder'sequity(2,894)40,38940,39340,88243,016Keyratios020021022E023E024EProfitabilityGrossmargin(%)8.6%5.5%7.9%9.0%onIFRS2.3%0.0%0.3%%0.0%%5.5%3.6%0.0%0.5%2.0%Growth(%)venue47.2%42.7%29.3%32.7%.5%EBIT10%-28%-06%-02%08%Netprofitloss(non-IFRS)n.a.n.a.n.a.336.6%BalanceSheetDebtratio1053%474%547%605%627%Netdebt/(netcash)49407CurrentratioOperatingmetricsARdays45.245.044.744.544.3InventorydaysAPdays67.467.467.467.467.4Cashcycledays-20.4-20.7-21.0-21.2-21.4Cashflow(RMBm)020021022E024E024ENetprofit/(loss)4dpayment8Depreciationandamortization58ChangeinworkingcapitalOperatingcashflow0,2016,2079,5843,25428,815CapexFreecashflow(FCF)61Investmentcashflow(8,771)(11,122)(7,480)(7,246)(8,130)Financingcashflow(3,733)6,597(6,779)(9,914)(10,793)Endingcashbalanace6,3477,92323,2489,3429,234期為11月21日；(2)以上各表均為簡表322Nov20223APPENDIX1SummaryIn3Q22,JDL’srevenueincreasedby38.9%YoYtoRMB35.8billion,ofwhich,revenuefromexternalcustomeraccountsfor69.5%oftotalrevenue.In3Q22,JDLrecordedNon-IFRSnetprofitofRmb450m,improvingcomparedwithNon-IFRSnetlossofaboutRmb600min3Q21.EarningsforecastandInvestmentrecommendations.WeexpectJDL’srevenuefromexternalcustomertogrowatCAGRof39.3%inFY20-25E,exceedingthetotalrevenueCAGRof27.9%,.WeexpextJDL’totalrevenuetoreachRmb135.4bn/+29.3%YoYandrevenuefromexternalcustomerstoreachRmb87.1bn/+47.4%YoYin2022.WeexpectthatJDl’sNon-IFRSnetincomewillreachbreakeven,beingRmb3.7m.GiventhatJDLisinaperiodoframp-upandrapidbusinessgrowth,westillusePSvaluationmethod.WegiveFY22E1.2XPS,andderivetargetpriceofHK$37.1pershare(wasHK$34.5pershare,raiseby8%).Wemaintainthe"Outperform”rating.Risks:Impactofepidemic,slower-than-expectedmacroeconomicgrowth,slower-than-expectedbusinessexpansion,lower-than-expectedutilizationforself-ownedtrucksandautomatedequipment,andsignificantincreaseinlaborcost.45下下m6m7 89