4方案優(yōu)選分析

4城西干道改造方案優(yōu)選分析在城西十道改造方案的決策中，南京市政府最終選擇了“橋改隧”方案，即拆除現(xiàn)有高架橋、新建雙向六車道隧道。這一決策遭到部分南京市民的質(zhì)疑。政府“橋改隧”的“毀橋”方案與市民的利用現(xiàn)有高架橋的“留橋”建議產(chǎn)生了鮮明對(duì)立。本文采用專家打分法模擬政府決策過程，試圖對(duì)政府選擇“橋改隧”方案進(jìn)行探討和分析；同時(shí)進(jìn)行網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)查，分發(fā)調(diào)研卷，對(duì)持反對(duì)意見市民的觀點(diǎn)進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié)，從而探求該部分市民對(duì)城西十道改造方案的視角。以下詳細(xì)計(jì)算過程以模擬政府決策為例，市民觀點(diǎn)的影響因素權(quán)重計(jì)算與之類似，在此不再贅述。4.1構(gòu)造層次結(jié)構(gòu)模型所建城西十道改造工程方案優(yōu)選的層次結(jié)構(gòu)模型如圖1。4.2構(gòu)造并計(jì)算各判斷矩陣計(jì)算各判斷矩陣，結(jié)果見表2-表15。表2判斷矩陣A-B及單排序權(quán)值A(chǔ)BlB2B3Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)Bl132.250.5609Amax=3.0015B20.333310.66670.1798CI=0.0008B30.44441.510.2593RI=0.58CR=0.0015表3判斷矩陣B1-C及單排序權(quán)值BlClC2Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)Cl11.28570.5625、ax=2.0000C20.777810.4375CI=0.0000RI=0CR=0.0000表4判斷矩陣B2-C及單排序權(quán)值B2C3C4C5C6Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)C3134.590.6046Amax=4.0163C40.333311.82.250.1963CI=0.0054C50.22220.555611.80.125RI=0.90C60.11110.44440.555610.0741CR=0.0061表5判斷矩陣B3-C及單排序權(quán)值B3C7C8C9ClOWi一致性檢驗(yàn)C712.25990.5927Amax=4.0035C80.444414.54.50.2794CI=0.0012C90.11110.222211.1250.0659RI=0.90CIO0.11110.22220.888910.0621CR=0.0013表6判斷矩陣C1-S及單排序權(quán)值

ClSlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)SI1310.777834.530.2178、ax=7.0372S20.333310.33330.222211.285710.0695CI=0.0062S31310.777834.530.2178RI=1.32S41.28574.51.28571394.50.3007CR=0.0046S50.333310.33330.333311.810.0772S60.22220.77780.22220.11110.555610.55560.0441S70.333310.33330.222211.810.0729表7判斷矩陣C2-S及單排序權(quán)值C2SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)Sl194.54.532.251.28570.3247、ax=7.0693S20.111110.44440.55560.33330.33330.22220.04CI=0.0116S30.22222.2510.88890.66670.44440.33330.0725RI=1.32S40.22221.81.12510.55560.66670.22220.0708CR=0.0085S50.333331.51.810.77780.33330.1077S60.444432.251.51.285710.55560.134S70.77784.534.531.810.2502表8判斷矩陣C3-S及單排序權(quán)值C3SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)Sl10.44440.44440.222211.1251.28570.3247、ax=7.0851S22.2511.1250.66672.252.251.80.04CI=0.0142S32.250.888910.55562.251.84.50.0725RI=1.32S44.51.51.814.54.54.50.0708CR=0.0104S510.44440.44440.222211.1251.28570.1077S60.88890.44440.55560.22220.888911.1250.134S70.77780.55560.22220.22220.77780.888910.2502表9判斷矩陣C4-S及單排序權(quán)值C4SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)Sl10.66670.77780.55560.44440.33330.88890.0833、ax=7.0235S21.511.1250.66670.55560.44441.50.1173CI=0.0039S31.28570.888910.77780.77780.55561.50.1229RI=1.32S41.81.51.285710.88890.55561.80.1562CR=0.0029S52.251.81.28571.12510.77782.250.1854S632.251.81.81.2857130.2506S71.1250.66670.66670.55560.44440.333310.0843表10判斷矩陣C5-S及單排序權(quán)值C5SlS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)Sl10.22220.88890.88890.66671.28571.1250.0889、ax=7.0672S24.514.54.534.590.4335CI=0.0112S31.1250.222211.1250.66671.12510.0918RI=1.32S41.1250.22220.888910.66671.12510.0887CR=0.0082S51.50.33331.51.512.252.250.147

S6S70.77780.88890.22220.11110.888910.888910.44440.444411.1250.888910.07550.0746表11判斷矩陣C6-S及單排序權(quán)值C6SIS2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)SI10.55560.777810.66670.777810.1141、ax=7.〔828S21.810.66670.44440.77780.77780.55560.1106CI=0.0305S31.28571.510.77781.1251.1250.88890.1523RI=1.32S412.251.285710.66670.777810.1498CR=0.0224S51.51.28570.88891.510.88891.28570.1649S61.28571.28570.88891.28571.12511.1250.1601S711.81.12510.77780.888910.1483表12判斷矩陣C7-S及單排序權(quán)值C7S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)SI10.66670.77780.88890.777811.1250.1237、ax=7.0267S21.511.1251.28571.1251.81.28570.1804CI=0.0045S31.28570.888911.1250.88891.51.28570.1577RI=1.32S41.1250.77780.888910.88891.1251.50.144CR=0.0033S51.28570.88891.1251.12511.28571.50.1631S610.55560.66670.88890.777811.28570.1202S70.88890.77780.77780.66670.66670.777810.1108表13判斷矩陣C8-S及單排序權(quán)值C8S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)SI11.511.12531.52.250.2012、ax=7.0287S20.666710.77780.66672.251.1251.80.1431CI=0.0048S311.285711.1252.251.51.80.183RI=1.32S40.88891.50.888912.251.52.250.1836CR=0.0035S50.33330.44440.44440.444410.44440.88890.0709S60.66670.88890.66670.66672.2511.50.1319S70.44440.55560.55560.44441.1250.666710.0863表14判斷矩陣C9-S及單排序權(quán)值C9S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)SI11.51.81.80.77781.12510.1667、ax=7.0206S20.666711.285710.55560.77780.66670.111CI=0.0034S30.55560.7778110.33330.66670.55560.0892RI=1.32S40.55561110.33330.66670.55560.0924CR=0.0025S51.28571.83311.51.28570.2297S60.88891.28571.51.50.666710.77780.1412S711.51.81.80.77781.285710.1699表15判斷矩陣C10-S及單排序權(quán)值C10S1S2S3S4S5S6S7Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)SI10.77780.55560.66671.1250.88891.28570.1193、ax=7.0682S21.285710.66670.88891.51.1252.250.16CI=0.0113S31.81.510.77782.252.251.80.2096RI=1.32S41.51.1251.285711.51.28571.80.1835CR=0.0084S50.88890.66670.44440.666710.77781.1250.1052S61.1250.88890.44440.77781.285711.50.1297S70.77780.44440.55560.55560.88890.666710.09274.3計(jì)算計(jì)算各影響因素及各方案相對(duì)于城西十道改造工程方案優(yōu)選目標(biāo)的綜合權(quán)重，并按第2部分（層次分析法基本原理）中提及的層次總排序一致性檢驗(yàn)公式進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，見表16和表17。表16準(zhǔn)則層綜合排序權(quán)值B1(0.5609)B2(0.1798)B3(0.2593)Wi一致性檢驗(yàn)C10.5625000.3155C20.4375000.2454C300.604600.1087C400.196300.0353C500.12500.0225CR=0.0015C600.074100.0133C7000.59270.1537C8000.27940.0724C9000.06590.0171C10000.06210.0161表17方案層綜合排序權(quán)值C1(0.3155)C2(0.2454)C3(0.1087)C4(0.0353)C5(0.0225)C6(0.0133)C7(0.1537)C8(0.0724)C9(0.0171)C10(0.0161)WiS10.21780.32470.08140.08330.08890.11410.12370.20120.16670.11930.2021S20.06950.04000.17840.11730.43350.11060.18040.14310.11100.16000.1090S30.21780.07250.18560.12290.09180.15230.15770.18300.08920.20960.1575S40.30070.07080.32860.15620.08870.14980.14400.18360.09240.18350.1974S50.07720.10770.08140.18540.14700.16490.16310.07090.22970.10520.1075S60.04410.13400.07840.25060.07550.16010.12020.13190.14120.12970.1005S70.07290.25020.06610.08430.07460.14830.11080.08630.16990.09270.1259一致性檢驗(yàn)CR=0.0064表18持反對(duì)意見市民的準(zhǔn)則層綜合排序權(quán)值B1(0.3043)B2(0.3043)B3(0.3913)WiC10.6923000.2107C20.3077000.0936C300.277500.0844C400.582600.1773C500.071400.0217C600.068500.0208C7000.49500.1937C8000.22660.0887C9000.05190.0203C10000.22660.08874.4結(jié)果分析通過以上計(jì)算，得到了政府決策中各影響因素（見表16）、各方案的綜合權(quán)重（見表17）以及市民視角下的各影響因素權(quán)重（見表18）。根據(jù)各影響因素的權(quán)重值大小，可看出在政府方面，交通功能、城市景觀和工程投資三項(xiàng)為首要關(guān)注因素，其在很大程度上決定了最后的“橋改隧”方案；持反對(duì)意見的市民則更關(guān)注交通功能、施工期間交通組織以及工程投資這幾個(gè)因素，經(jīng)過分析，該部分市民更加支持“在貫通原有四車道高架橋的同時(shí)新建四車道隧道”和“保留現(xiàn)有四車道高架不變，新建四車道隧道”這兩個(gè)方案。從這一結(jié)果不難看出，政府決策與市民觀點(diǎn)的出發(fā)點(diǎn)相去甚遠(yuǎn)，政府站在城市規(guī)劃發(fā)展的宏觀高度，綜合考慮了提高快速路服務(wù)水平和美化城市景形