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PensionFundingTargetsandStrategiesBrianDonohue,ChicagoConsultingActuariesJerryMingione,TowersPerrinMay12,2004

PensionFundingTargetsandS1HistoryofFundingRulesInthebeginningoftime(post-ERISA)………….actuarieshadconsiderablecontrolovertheassumptionsandmethodsusedfordeterminingfundingrequirements.Financialassumptionsweresettobereasonableonalong-termbasis.Actuarialmethodswereselected,essentiallyrightfromthetextbook,withconsiderablefreedom.Unfundedliabilitieswerefundedover10-30yearperiods,basedonlevelpayments.HistoryofFundingRulesInthe2HistoryofFundingRulesThenthingschangedlegislatively……..In1987,OBRAinstitutedtheconceptofcurrentliability,inordertobringasolvency/terminationbasisperspectivetofundingrequirements(andtaxdeductionallowances).

Basically,planswererequiredtomaintainafundinglevelof90%ofcurrentliability.Iftheyfellbelowthislevel,theywouldberequiredtocontributeadditionalamountstorecovertheirfundedpositionover(essentially)3-5years.Currentliability-basedfundingrequirementsweremademorestringentin1994:maximumCLinterestratereducedfrom110%to105%updatedmortalitytableincreasedrequiredfunding%’sfordeficitreductioncontributions.HistoryofFundingRulesThent3HistoryofFundingRulesAndcapitalmarketchangesupsetthedynamics……..Initiallyinterestrateswerehighenoughthattheterminationbasiscalculationsdidnotoverridethelong-termfundingbasisthatplanshadtraditionallyusedforfunding.Theninterestratesdeclinedinthe90’s,asdidequitymarketsintheearlyyearsofthisdecade–creatingthedoomsdayscenarioforpensionplans.Actuary-setlongterm-basedfinancialassumptionsdidnotreactmuch.Thus,thedynamicsofpensionfundingrequirementschangeddramatically.Treasurycutbacktheissuanceof30-yearbondsin1998,andtheneliminatedthementirelyin2001.Yieldson30-yearT-bondsdeclinedandthecreditspreadwidened.Itbecameapparentthatalegislativeremedywasrequired.Temporaryreliefwasgrantedfor2002-2003byraisingtheinterestratecapto120%.HistoryofFundingRulesAndca4CurrentSituationLet’scompareassumptionsinthelate1980’svs.today:*Potentiallyincreasestoabout6.4%withinterestraterelief.19882004averagecontributioninterestrate8.4%8.3%30-yearTreasuryyield9.0%5.1%maximumcurrentliabilityrate10.1%

5.5%*CurrentSituationLet’scompare5CurrentSituationHere’swhatthosechangesimplyintermsofvaluationresultsandcontributionrequirements:198820042004withoutreliefwithreliefvaluationinterestrate8.4%8.3%8.3%currentliabilityrate10.1%5.5%6.4%AALfundedratio84%83%83%CLfundedratio115%73%81%regularminimum$47.3$49.2$49.2addtl.fundingcharge0.075.634.7minimumwithDRC124.983.9CurrentSituationHere’swhatt6CurrentSituationThetypicalpensionplantodayhasacurrentliabilityfundedstatusintherangeof80-90%.Many,ofcourse,arewellbelowthislevel.Contributionrequirementstendtospikedramaticallyasfundedlevelsfallbelow90%.However,contributionrequirementsinmostcaseslagemergingfinancialexperiencebyroughly2-3years,duetotheeffectsof:volatilityrelieffour-yearaveragingofinterestratesassetsmoothingallowablecontributiontimingdelays.CurrentSituationThetypicalp7CurrentSituationPlansponsorshavetypicallynotbeenproactiveinaddressingtheirdecliningfundedpositions–withafewnotableexceptions.Why?Theycountedonsmoothingtoavoidtheworsteffectsofthecapitalmarketsituation,andthatthecapitalmarketsituationwouldimproveovertime.Theycountedonlegislatedsolutionstomitigatecontributionrequirements.Theimplicationsintermsoffuturecontributionrequirementswerenotalwaysmadeclear.Thenumberofalternativefundingmeasuresmadeithardtomonitorresultsanddetermine/prioritizefundingtargets.CurrentSituationPlansponsors8LessonsLearnedPoorlyfundedplansentailanumberofadverseconsequences,inadditiontospikesinfuturecontributionrequirements:quarterlycontributionrequirementsPBGCvariablepremiumsparticipantnoticesreunderfundingPBGCunderfundingnoticeadditionalminimumliability/chargestoshareholderequity.LessonsLearnedPoorlyfundedp9LessonsLearnedRecentexperiencehasexposedaneedtobettermonitorCLfunding,andpotentiallyadjustfundingovertimesoastomaintainatargetfundinglevel:60%toavoidrestrictionsonbenefitimprovements80%/90%toavoidadditionalfundingcharge+participantnotice100%toavoidquarterlycontributions.110%toavoidlumpsumrestrictionstotop25.125%toallowsection420transferstofundretireemedicalbenefits(basedonOBRACL).LessonsLearnedRecentexperien10LessonsLearnedOtherpossiblefundingtargets:FFLtoavoidvariablepremiumABOtoavoidadditionalbalancesheetliability.LessonsLearnedOtherpossible11LessonsLearnedWhile2003resultswerestrong,theyweren’tapanacea.Plansponsorsstillhavetheafter-effectsofsmoothingmethodologiestodealwith.Mostplansnowrealizethataminimumfundingstrategyisnotoptimal.Thereisalsoconsiderablelegislativeuncertaintyremaining:short-terminterestrateandDRC-relatedrelieflong-termfundingreform.LessonsLearnedWhile2003resu12ProactiveStrategiesPushbackquarterlycontributionsrequiresminoraccelerationofcontributiontimingimprovesCLfunded%reducesPBGCpremiums.AvoidDRC90%/90%/80%/80%patternavoidslargeincreaseinfundingrequirements.AvoidPBGCvariablepremiumfundingtargetbasedonFFLvariablepremiums,unlikecontributions,areadead-weightlosstoemployers.ProactiveStrategiesPushback13ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8498869029791,0261,075Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)104%91%85%82%80%85%PBGCpremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.08.69.911.9

April150.00.08.69.911.928.9

July150.00.08.69.911.928.9

September1522.36.5103.1

October150.00.08.69.911.928.9Totalcontribution22.36.563.244.352.5201.6Example1:MinimumFundingAggregatecontributions: $390.4AggregatePBGCpremiums: $10.9ProactiveStrategies200420052014ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8498869029731,0141,056Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)104%91%88%84%82%91%PBGCpremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.07.78.610.4

April150.00.046.015.918.7129.2

July150.00.08.49.511.528.3

September159.811.829.0

October150.00.00.00.00.00.0Totalcontribution22.36.563.042.850.5196.8Example2:PushbackquarterlycontributionsAggregatecontributions: $381.9AggregatePBGCpremiums: $6.5ProactiveStrategies200420052015ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8498869029731,0141,159Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)104%91%88%84%90%90%PBGCPremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.0

April150.00.046.015.918.70.0

July150.00.08.49.511.50.0

September159.8110.671.6

October150.00.00.00.00.00.0TotalContribution22.36.563.042.8149.471.6Example3:AvoidDRCAggregatecontributions: $355.6AggregatePBGCpremiums: $4.5ProactiveStrategies200420052016ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8499359489711,0291,158Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)109%96%88%85%90%90%PBGCPremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.07.80.00.0

April150.00.00.015.911.40.0

July150.00.06.19.611.50.0

September1569.20.08.724.5109.772.0

October150.00.00.00.00.00.0TotalContribution69.20.014.757.8132.772.0Example4:AvoidPBGCvariablepremiumAggregatecontributions: $346.4AggregatePBGCpremiums: $1.8ProactiveStrategies200420052017ProactiveStrategiesConsultantsneedtoclarifypensionfundingdecisionsforclients.Theactuarialreporthasbecomeacompliancedocument,notaconsultingdocument.Theoldmodel(minimumandmaximum)hasbeenreplacedbyanewmodel(targetsandconsequences)forpensionfunding.Forecastsareessentialtoclientunderstandinganddecision-making.Ultimately,pensionfundingdecisionsshouldbelesscomplicatedthantheycurrentlyseemtoemployers.ProactiveStrategiesConsultant18ProactiveStrategiesLong-termstrategicapproaches--determinethelong-termcostoftheplan(e.g.,level%ofpay)andfundthisamount,subjecttomin/maxconstraintspotentiallyreducesthevolatilityofannualcontributionrequirementsdramaticallydoesthisbyavoidingthe“feastorfamine”scenariosthatmostplansponsorshavebeenseeing.Areaofconcern:howdovariationsincontributionrequirementscorrelatetotheupsanddownsofthebusinesscycle?Ineconomictermsitisnotjusttheamountofrequiredcontributionsthatshouldbeofconcern,butthepotentialdisutilityofhavingtomakethosecontributionsatthewrongtime.ProactiveStrategiesLong-term19ProactiveStrategies2003Minimum

FundingTarget2004200520062007Contributions20032004200520062007Analysisshowsthattargetcontributionsinadvanceofrequirementsshouldreducethelevelandvariabilityoffuturecontributions.ProactiveStrategies2003Minimu20ProactiveStrategiesWhatdocompanies’actualfundingpolicieslooklike–totheextenttheyhavedevelopedone?90%ofsurveyedcompaniesreportedhavingsometypeoffundingpolicy,althoughtypicallytheseareunwritten/informal.Contributiontargetswithinthesepolicieswereasfollows34%expectedtopaytheminimumrequiredcontribution16%targetedtomaintaina90%fundedlevelforcurrentliability8%targetedtoavoidPBGCvariablepremiums6%setfundedleveltargetsbasedonPBO/ABOmeasures5%targetedtoavoidparticipantunderfundingnotices5%expectedtopaythemaximumdeductibleamount.

Source:2002TowersPerrinsurvey;115responsesProactiveStrategiesWhatdoco21FundingReformIntermsofnear-termfundingrelief,Congressseemspreparedtograntthefollowing:Replacementof30-yearTreasurybondyieldwithacompositerateconsistingofhighqualitylongcorporatebondindicesaddsasmuchas1.0%tothe4-yearweightedaveragefor2004(note:thereissomeuncertaintyastohowTreasurywillimplementthenewrate).Otherlimitedreliefprovidedforairlines,steel,andmultiemployerplansponsors.Theseprovisionswillonlybeeffectivefortwoyears--throughYE2005.Thuscontinuingeffortstocraftmorepermanentfundingreformwillbenecessary--startingimmediately.FundingReformIntermsofnear22FundingReformWhatmightpermanentreformlooklike?TheTreasurydepartmenthasmadeproposalsalongthefollowinglines:Solvencymeasureswouldreflectsnapshotvaluesofassetsandliabilities,includinginterestratesbasedonayieldcurve.Thechangeswouldmakepensionfundingmoreresponsivetocapitalmarketconditionsandthevaryingeffectsofplandemographics.Therewouldbeincreaseddisclosurerequirementswithrespecttoplanfundedstatus(basedonthesamesnapshot/solvencymeasure),andrestrictionsonbenefitsprovidedunderpoorlyfundedplans.TherehavealsobeenproposalstomodifythePBGCpremiumstructuretobemorereflectiveoftheplantermination-relatedrisksentailedbydifferentplansandinvestmentstrategies.ThereisnoescapingthatthePBGCneedsadditionalrevenueinordertomakeupitscurrentshortfall;howtogetitisthequestion.FundingReformWhatmightperma23FundingReformIfcurrentliabilitymeasuresarerevisedtoreflectasnapshotofcurrentcapitalmarketconditions,therewillbeconsiderablenewvolatilityinCLbasisfundingmeasures,andthusincontributionrequirements.Allpartiesseemtoagreethatitisappropriatetomakeotherchangesinordertoaddressthatexpectedvolatility.Somepreliminaryproposalshavebeenfloated,including:limitingtheyear-to-yearincreaseincontributionrequirements(e.g.,2%ofcoveredpayroll)averagingtheCLfundingratiosoveraperiodofyearsreducingthe%ofunfundedamounts(lengtheningtheamortizationperiod)requiredtobecontributedeachyear.Noneseemstheperfectsolution--eachhaspracticalproblemsattached.FundingReformIfcurrentliabi24Q&AQuestions?CheapShots?Comments?Q&AQuestions?CheapShots?Comme25

PensionFundingTargetsandStrategiesBrianDonohue,ChicagoConsultingActuariesJerryMingione,TowersPerrinMay12,2004

PensionFundingTargetsandS26HistoryofFundingRulesInthebeginningoftime(post-ERISA)………….actuarieshadconsiderablecontrolovertheassumptionsandmethodsusedfordeterminingfundingrequirements.Financialassumptionsweresettobereasonableonalong-termbasis.Actuarialmethodswereselected,essentiallyrightfromthetextbook,withconsiderablefreedom.Unfundedliabilitieswerefundedover10-30yearperiods,basedonlevelpayments.HistoryofFundingRulesInthe27HistoryofFundingRulesThenthingschangedlegislatively……..In1987,OBRAinstitutedtheconceptofcurrentliability,inordertobringasolvency/terminationbasisperspectivetofundingrequirements(andtaxdeductionallowances).

Basically,planswererequiredtomaintainafundinglevelof90%ofcurrentliability.Iftheyfellbelowthislevel,theywouldberequiredtocontributeadditionalamountstorecovertheirfundedpositionover(essentially)3-5years.Currentliability-basedfundingrequirementsweremademorestringentin1994:maximumCLinterestratereducedfrom110%to105%updatedmortalitytableincreasedrequiredfunding%’sfordeficitreductioncontributions.HistoryofFundingRulesThent28HistoryofFundingRulesAndcapitalmarketchangesupsetthedynamics……..Initiallyinterestrateswerehighenoughthattheterminationbasiscalculationsdidnotoverridethelong-termfundingbasisthatplanshadtraditionallyusedforfunding.Theninterestratesdeclinedinthe90’s,asdidequitymarketsintheearlyyearsofthisdecade–creatingthedoomsdayscenarioforpensionplans.Actuary-setlongterm-basedfinancialassumptionsdidnotreactmuch.Thus,thedynamicsofpensionfundingrequirementschangeddramatically.Treasurycutbacktheissuanceof30-yearbondsin1998,andtheneliminatedthementirelyin2001.Yieldson30-yearT-bondsdeclinedandthecreditspreadwidened.Itbecameapparentthatalegislativeremedywasrequired.Temporaryreliefwasgrantedfor2002-2003byraisingtheinterestratecapto120%.HistoryofFundingRulesAndca29CurrentSituationLet’scompareassumptionsinthelate1980’svs.today:*Potentiallyincreasestoabout6.4%withinterestraterelief.19882004averagecontributioninterestrate8.4%8.3%30-yearTreasuryyield9.0%5.1%maximumcurrentliabilityrate10.1%

5.5%*CurrentSituationLet’scompare30CurrentSituationHere’swhatthosechangesimplyintermsofvaluationresultsandcontributionrequirements:198820042004withoutreliefwithreliefvaluationinterestrate8.4%8.3%8.3%currentliabilityrate10.1%5.5%6.4%AALfundedratio84%83%83%CLfundedratio115%73%81%regularminimum$47.3$49.2$49.2addtl.fundingcharge0.075.634.7minimumwithDRC124.983.9CurrentSituationHere’swhatt31CurrentSituationThetypicalpensionplantodayhasacurrentliabilityfundedstatusintherangeof80-90%.Many,ofcourse,arewellbelowthislevel.Contributionrequirementstendtospikedramaticallyasfundedlevelsfallbelow90%.However,contributionrequirementsinmostcaseslagemergingfinancialexperiencebyroughly2-3years,duetotheeffectsof:volatilityrelieffour-yearaveragingofinterestratesassetsmoothingallowablecontributiontimingdelays.CurrentSituationThetypicalp32CurrentSituationPlansponsorshavetypicallynotbeenproactiveinaddressingtheirdecliningfundedpositions–withafewnotableexceptions.Why?Theycountedonsmoothingtoavoidtheworsteffectsofthecapitalmarketsituation,andthatthecapitalmarketsituationwouldimproveovertime.Theycountedonlegislatedsolutionstomitigatecontributionrequirements.Theimplicationsintermsoffuturecontributionrequirementswerenotalwaysmadeclear.Thenumberofalternativefundingmeasuresmadeithardtomonitorresultsanddetermine/prioritizefundingtargets.CurrentSituationPlansponsors33LessonsLearnedPoorlyfundedplansentailanumberofadverseconsequences,inadditiontospikesinfuturecontributionrequirements:quarterlycontributionrequirementsPBGCvariablepremiumsparticipantnoticesreunderfundingPBGCunderfundingnoticeadditionalminimumliability/chargestoshareholderequity.LessonsLearnedPoorlyfundedp34LessonsLearnedRecentexperiencehasexposedaneedtobettermonitorCLfunding,andpotentiallyadjustfundingovertimesoastomaintainatargetfundinglevel:60%toavoidrestrictionsonbenefitimprovements80%/90%toavoidadditionalfundingcharge+participantnotice100%toavoidquarterlycontributions.110%toavoidlumpsumrestrictionstotop25.125%toallowsection420transferstofundretireemedicalbenefits(basedonOBRACL).LessonsLearnedRecentexperien35LessonsLearnedOtherpossiblefundingtargets:FFLtoavoidvariablepremiumABOtoavoidadditionalbalancesheetliability.LessonsLearnedOtherpossible36LessonsLearnedWhile2003resultswerestrong,theyweren’tapanacea.Plansponsorsstillhavetheafter-effectsofsmoothingmethodologiestodealwith.Mostplansnowrealizethataminimumfundingstrategyisnotoptimal.Thereisalsoconsiderablelegislativeuncertaintyremaining:short-terminterestrateandDRC-relatedrelieflong-termfundingreform.LessonsLearnedWhile2003resu37ProactiveStrategiesPushbackquarterlycontributionsrequiresminoraccelerationofcontributiontimingimprovesCLfunded%reducesPBGCpremiums.AvoidDRC90%/90%/80%/80%patternavoidslargeincreaseinfundingrequirements.AvoidPBGCvariablepremiumfundingtargetbasedonFFLvariablepremiums,unlikecontributions,areadead-weightlosstoemployers.ProactiveStrategiesPushback38ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8498869029791,0261,075Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)104%91%85%82%80%85%PBGCpremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.08.69.911.9

April150.00.08.69.911.928.9

July150.00.08.69.911.928.9

September1522.36.5103.1

October150.00.08.69.911.928.9Totalcontribution22.36.563.244.352.5201.6Example1:MinimumFundingAggregatecontributions: $390.4AggregatePBGCpremiums: $10.9ProactiveStrategies200420052039ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8498869029731,0141,056Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)104%91%88%84%82%91%PBGCpremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.07.78.610.4

April150.00.046.015.918.7129.2

July150.00.08.49.511.528.3

September159.811.829.0

October150.00.00.00.00.00.0Totalcontribution22.36.563.042.850.5196.8Example2:PushbackquarterlycontributionsAggregatecontributions: $381.9AggregatePBGCpremiums: $6.5ProactiveStrategies200420052040ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8498869029731,0141,159Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)104%91%88%84%90%90%PBGCPremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.0

April150.00.046.015.918.70.0

July150.00.08.49.511.50.0

September159.8110.671.6

October150.00.00.00.00.00.0TotalContribution22.36.563.042.8149.471.6Example3:AvoidDRCAggregatecontributions: $355.6AggregatePBGCpremiums: $4.5ProactiveStrategies200420052041ProactiveStrategies200420052006200720082009Currentliability$828$975$1,106$1,220$1,314$1,398Marketvalueofassets8499359489711,0291,158Funded%(w/accruedcontributions)109%96%88%85%90%90%PBGCPremiumsContributions

January150.00.00.07.80.00.0

April150.00.00.015.911.40.0

July150.00.06.19.611.50.0

September1569.20.08.724.5109.772.0

October150.00.00.00.00.00.0TotalContribution69.20.014.757.8132.772.0Example4:AvoidPBGCvariablepremiumAggregatecontributions: $346.4AggregatePBGCpremiums: $1.8ProactiveStrategies200420052042ProactiveStrategiesConsultantsneedtoclarifypensionfundingdecisionsforclients.Theactuarialreporthasbecomeacompliancedocument,notaconsultingdocument.Theoldmodel(minimumandmaximum)hasbeenreplacedbyanewmodel(targetsandconsequences)forpensionfunding.Forecastsareessentialtoclientunderstandinganddecision-making.Ultimately,pensionfundingdecisionsshouldbelesscomplicatedthantheycurrentlyseemtoemployers.ProactiveStrategiesConsultant43ProactiveStrategiesLong-termstrategicapproaches--determinethelong-termcostoftheplan(e.g.,level%ofpay)andfundthisamount,subjecttomin/maxconstraintspotentiallyreducesthevolatilityofannualcontributionrequirementsdramaticallydoesthisbyavoidingthe“feastorfamine”scenariosthatmostplansponsorshavebeenseeing.Areaofconcern:howdovariationsincontributionrequirementscorrelatetotheupsanddownsofthebusinesscycle?Ineconomictermsitisnotjusttheamountofrequiredcontributionsthatshouldbeofconcern,butthepotentialdisutilityofhavingtomakethosecontributionsatthewrongtime.ProactiveStrategiesLong-term44ProactiveStrategies2003Minimum

FundingTarget2004200520062007Contributions20032004200520062007Analysisshowsthattargetcontributionsinadvanceofrequirementsshouldreducethelevelandvariabilityoffuturecontributions.ProactiveStrategies2003Minimu45ProactiveStrategiesWhatdocompanies’actualfundingpolicieslooklike–totheextenttheyhavedevelopedone?90%ofsurveyedcompaniesreportedhavingsometypeoffundingpolicy,althoughtypicallytheseareunwritten/informal.Contributiontargetswithinthesepolicieswereasfollows34%expectedtopaytheminimumrequiredcontribution16%targetedtomaintaina90%fundedlevelforcurrentliability8%targetedtoavoidPBGCvariablepremiums6%setfundedleveltargetsbasedonPB

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