Howtowritebusinessreport-以高盛2016年VR報(bào)告為例

第十課Howtowriteabusinessreport?Planningyourbusinessreport:1.Whatisthepurposeofthereport?Thepurposeofabusinessreportisgenerallytoassistindecisionmaking.Besureyouareclearonwhatdecisionistobemadeandtherolethereportplaysinthisdecision.2.Whoarethereadersofthereport?Trytounderstandwhatthereadersalreadyknow,whattheyneedtoknow,andhowtheywillusethisreport.Youwillneedtogiveenoughinformationtosatisfyallthesepotentialreaders.3.Whatarethereport'smainmessages?Thinkcarefullyaboutthemainmessage/syouneedtoconvey,andthereforewhatinformationisrequired.Askyourself:a.WhataretherequiredpiecesofinformationIneedtoinclude?b.WhataretheadditionalpiecesofinformationIneedtoinclude?4.Howwillthemessagebestructured？a.Usedirectapproach.Thisapproachpresentstheconclusionsorrecommendationsnearthebeginningofthereport,andthereportprovidesjustification理由fortheserecommendations.b.Thenconstructanoutline,orstructure,foryourreport.c.Followthelogicflow.StructuringyourbusinessreportAbusinessreportmaycontain:?acoveringletter?atitlepage?anexecutivesummary摘要、概要?atableofcontents?anintroduction?conclusions?recommendations?findingsanddiscussion?alistofreferences?appendices附件Writingyourbusinessreport?useeffectiveheadingsandsubheadings?structureyourparagraphswell?writeclearsentenceswithplainlanguage?keepyourwritingprofessional?usewhitespaceandwell-chosenfonts?numberyourpages?usefootnotes腳注,tables,figures,andappendicesappropriately.PortfolioManager'sSummary1.Virtualreality(VR)andaugmentedreality(AR)havethepotentialtobecomethenextbigcomputingplatform,andaswesawwiththePCandsmartphone,weexpectnewmarketstobecreatedandexistingmarketstobedisrupted.VR和AR有潛力成為下一個(gè)重要計(jì)算平臺(tái)，如同PC和智能手機(jī)，我們預(yù)計(jì)，新的市場(chǎng)終將形成，而當(dāng)前的許多市場(chǎng)將被顛覆。2.GiventhatVR/ARtechnologyisstillintheearlystagesofdevelopment,we'veoutlinedthreescenariosforhardwareandsoftwareuptakeoverthenextdecade.Inourbasecase,weestimate$80bninrevenueby2025($45bninhardware,$35bninsoftware)andassumethatHMDs(head-mounteddevices頭戴設(shè)備)gainpopularityastechnologyimproves,butadoptionislimitedbymobilityandbatterylife.Our“accelerateduptake”scenariopredictsa$182bnmarket($110bninhardware,$72bninsoftware),whereVR/ARtechnologyevolvesfromaniche[n?t?]神龕devicetoabroadercomputingplatform.Inour$23bn“delayeduptake”scenario($15bninhardware,$8bninsoftware),weassumeVR/ARseeschallengesinlatency,display,safetyandprivacy,andthetechnologyisusedprimarilyforvideogames.由于VR/AR尚處于發(fā)展的初期階段，我們?cè)谶@里列出了VR/AR硬件和軟件在未來10年的三種發(fā)展可能：基于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)預(yù)期，到2025年該市場(chǎng)營收將達(dá)到800億美元(其中450億美元為硬件營收，350億美元為軟件營收)，同時(shí)，隨著技術(shù)提升，頭戴設(shè)備將越來越普及，但其應(yīng)用性會(huì)受到設(shè)備的移動(dòng)性和電池壽命的限制?；跇酚^預(yù)期，該市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將達(dá)到1820億美元，(其中1100億美元為硬件營收，720億美元為軟件營收)，VR/AR設(shè)備將由神龕發(fā)展為廣闊的計(jì)算平臺(tái)。而基于悲觀預(yù)期，該市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將達(dá)到230億美元，(其中150億美元為硬件營收，80億美元為軟件營收)。VR/AR的發(fā)展可能會(huì)受到延遲，顯示，安全和隱私等方面的挑戰(zhàn)，而將主要應(yīng)用于視頻游戲。3.We'veoutlined9usecasesforVR/ARwhichweseeasthemostmeaningfuldriversofthemarketinthenear-term:videogames,liveevents,videoentertainment,healthcare,realestate,retail,education,engineering,andmilitary.我們列出了VR/AR的9大應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域，我們認(rèn)為這是短期內(nèi)該市場(chǎng)最有意義的應(yīng)用案例：視頻游戲、事件直播、視頻娛樂、醫(yī)療保健、房地產(chǎn)、零售、教育、工程和軍事。4.Lookingbeyondvideogames,weseerealestate,retail,andhealthcareamongthefirstmarketsthatVR/ARdisrupts.除了視頻游戲，我們認(rèn)為VR/AR還將率先顛覆房地產(chǎn)、零售和醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)。5.Weviewtheuserexperience,technologyconstraints約束,thedevelopmentofcontentandapplications,andpriceaskeyhurdles障礙toadoption.我們認(rèn)為，用戶體驗(yàn)、技術(shù)局限、內(nèi)容和應(yīng)用的開發(fā)，以及價(jià)格是VR/AR普及的主要障礙。6.WebelieveVR/ARHMDscouldexperiencesimilarcostreductioncurvesaswehaveseenonPCsandsmartphones,withpricesfalling5-10%annually.我們認(rèn)為，用戶體驗(yàn)、技術(shù)局限、內(nèi)容和應(yīng)用的開發(fā)，以及價(jià)格是VR/AR普及的主要障礙。7.Atthisstage,wehavegreaterconvictionintherelativesuccessofVRversusARgivenVR'stechnologicalprogressandmomentum勢(shì)頭,andtheearlyformationofanecosystemofvendors供應(yīng)商andpartners.目前，我們認(rèn)為VR成功的可能性要高于AR，這主要得益于VR技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，已經(jīng)廠商和合作伙伴生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的初步形成。LineChart/LineGraph折線圖BarChart柱狀圖PieChart餅狀圖CurrentStateoftheMarketVRvsARVirtualrealityimmerses沉浸auserinanimaginedorreplicatedworld(likevideogames,movies,orflightsimulation)orsimulatespresenceintherealworld(likewatchingasportingeventlive).ThemajorhardwareplayersinVRareOculus,SonyPlayStationVR,HTCVive,andSamsungGearVR.VR讓用戶置身于一個(gè)想象出來或者重新復(fù)制的世界(如游戲、電影或航班模擬)，抑或是模擬真實(shí)的世界(如觀看體育直播)。VR領(lǐng)域主要的硬件廠商有Oculus、索尼(PlayStationVR)、HTC(Vive)和三星(GearVR)。Augmentedrealityoverlaysdigitalimagery影像ontotherealworld.ThemajorhardwareplayersincludeMicrosoftHoloLens,GoogleGlass,andMagicLeap.AR是把數(shù)字想象世界加在真實(shí)世界之上，主要硬件包括微軟HoloLens、谷歌GoogleGlass和MagicLeap。AneasywaytodifferentiatebetweenthetwoisthatVRusesanopaque[?(?)'pe?k]不透明的headset(whichyoucannotseethrough)tocompletelyimmersetheuserinavirtualworldwhereasARusesaclearheadsetsotheuserscanseetherealworldandoverlayinformationandimageryontoit.區(qū)分VR和AR的一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的方法是：VR需要用一個(gè)不透明的頭戴設(shè)備完成虛擬世界里的沉浸體驗(yàn)，而AR需要清晰的頭戴設(shè)備看清真實(shí)世界和重疊在上面的信息和圖像。Aswediscussinmoredetailintheusecasessectionofthisreport,wecurrentlyseeARgearedtowardsservingbusinessusecases,VRhavingbothconsumerandbusinessapplications,andsomeareaswherethetwooverlap.Forinstance,mostvideogamedevelopmentisinVRrightnow,butMicrosoftHoloLensisalsocreatingARgamessuchasMinecraft.從目前的觀察來看，AR比較適合服務(wù)企業(yè)級(jí)用戶，而VR同時(shí)適用于消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)用戶。有些情況下，兩者還會(huì)出現(xiàn)重疊市場(chǎng)。例如，目前大多數(shù)游戲基于VR研發(fā)，但微軟也用HoloLens重新創(chuàng)作了《我的世界》這樣的游戲。

Inthe1990s,when3Dgamingwasintroduced,virtualrealitysawasimilarboom.

Asimilarhype大肆宣傳beganwhenFacebookacquiredOculusfor$2bnin2014andwenotethatoverthelast2yearstherehavebeenover225VCinvestmentsinVR/AR,raising$3.5bnincapital.UsingthepasttopredictthefutureToascertaintherampofVR/AR,weanalyzedtheadoptioncurvesandtrendswesawinPCs,smartphones,andtabletstotrytodrawfromthesimilaritiesanddifferences.WeseeVR/ARhavingaquickrampamongearlyadoptersliketabletsdid,andseeadoptionbeingdrivenbyamixofconsumerandenterpriseusecases(whilethePCwasdrivenbyenterpriseandsmartphone/tabletsweredrivenbyconsumer).為進(jìn)一步了解VR/AR的發(fā)展，我們分析了PC、智能手機(jī)和平板電腦的普及曲線與趨勢(shì)。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，VR/AR與平板電腦的發(fā)展曲線較為相近，最初都是由消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)級(jí)用戶推動(dòng)發(fā)展(PC最初由企業(yè)級(jí)用戶推動(dòng)，智能手機(jī)由消費(fèi)者推動(dòng))。SummaryofourhardwareandsoftwareforecastsToarriveattheVR/ARestimates,weconsideredthefollowing:1.TheusecasesforVR/ARandpotentialaddressablemarketintermsofusers2.Avolumeadoptionframeworkwhichconsiderstechnologyenablerstoreachmassadoption.3.Apricingframeworkwhichprojectshowcostscoulddeclineovertimeaspriceelasticityshouldhaveanimpactonenddemand.Inconsideringtheusecasesandaddressablemarkets,andmarryingthevolumeadoptionandpricingframeworks,wearriveatthreeoutcomesin2025forourVR/ARhardwareandsoftwarerevenue收益at$182bn,$80bnand$23bn.為預(yù)測(cè)VR/AR市場(chǎng)，我們考慮了以下三個(gè)因素：1.VR/AR的應(yīng)用和潛在用戶市場(chǎng)2.大規(guī)模普及的時(shí)間框架(讓該技術(shù)變成大眾產(chǎn)品)3.價(jià)格區(qū)間。隨著時(shí)間的推移，VR/AR產(chǎn)品的成本將下滑。價(jià)格的波動(dòng)會(huì)影響市場(chǎng)需求。考慮到應(yīng)用空間和市場(chǎng)，結(jié)合大規(guī)模普及時(shí)間框架和價(jià)格框架，我們對(duì)2025年的VR/AR市場(chǎng)規(guī)模做出了三個(gè)級(jí)別的預(yù)測(cè)：分別是1820億美元、800億美元和230億美元。UsecasesandsoftwaremarketdetailWe'veidentified9usecasesforVR/ARtechnologywhichweseecurrentlyemerging:videogames,liveevents,videoentertainment,retail,realestate,education,healthcare,engineering,andmilitary.Foreachoftheseusecases,weassessthefollowing:1)Thepotentialmarketreachintermsofusers2)Thecurrentchallengestoexecuteonthisusecase3)TheexistingrevenuepoolthatVR/ARadoptioncoulddisrupt4)Revenuedriversandestimatethesoftware/subscriptionrevenuepotentialthrough2025我們認(rèn)為，VR/AR技術(shù)可以應(yīng)用到9大領(lǐng)域：視頻游戲、事件直播、視頻娛樂、醫(yī)療保健、房地產(chǎn)、零售、教育、工程和軍事。對(duì)于每個(gè)領(lǐng)域，我們都評(píng)估了：1)潛在市場(chǎng)的用戶量2)當(dāng)前的挑戰(zhàn)3)當(dāng)前的營收規(guī)模(VR/AR普及后可能顛覆的)4)營收推動(dòng)力和2025年軟件營收潛力圖表詞匯

表上升趨勢(shì)toincrease/anincrease上升toleap/aleap跳躍式增長torocket/toboom/tosoar/asoar[s??]飛漲toupsurge/anupsurge猛增togoup上升tojump/shoot(up)暴漲toboomtoreachapeak達(dá)到頂峰toupswing/anupswing搖擺上升toclimb爬升growsteadily穩(wěn)定增長torise上升togrow增長toexpand擴(kuò)張表下降趨勢(shì)tocollapse/acollapse大幅下降todrop/adrop下跌tofall下降toreachalowpoint達(dá)到最低點(diǎn)reachthebottomof達(dá)到谷底todecline下降todecrease減少togodown下降areduction下降crash崩潰、崩盤plummet驟然下跌表程度程度較大：marked/markedly顯著的quick/quickly快速的sudden/suddenly突然apparent/apparently明顯的

considerable/considerably相當(dāng)?shù)膁ramatic/dramatically劇烈sharp/sharply大幅strong/strongly強(qiáng)烈的significant/significantly顯著的obvious/obviously明顯的agreatdeal大幅的程度較?。篴bit稍許fractional/fractionally稍許gradual/gradually逐漸gentle/gently輕微hardly很少slight/slightly稍許slow