經濟論文-申銀萬國樂觀情緒忽視負面因素等

éêò?íò1úà?1??éD÷o?êó?o??òò??μè

é??¤×???ò??′?μ?2￠3?1y?D?ú2???±¨???Dμ?o?D?2¨?ˉ????é??T3150μ??￡êD3??úà?1??éD÷μ?í??ˉ??òàè???±?3????ˉá|￡?μ?Dèòa?aê?1?×￠?t2???·￠éúμ???è?±??ˉ?￡??êD3?à′?μ￡?ò?D??o??òò??ò???aê?????￡?μ?ê??ì?ú?úêD3?μ?à?1??éD÷?áoü?ì???ˉ?￠é??áo?êó?aD??o??òò??μ?3??÷?￡′ó1yè￥μ???é?′￡??t2?D§ó|?ú1éêDé?μ?ì???￡?Dèòa?àúà??yoí?í?eμ?1y3ì￡?2??á?ú?ì?ú?ú??±?òμò?D?3éμ?êD3??éD÷oí??DD?÷ê??￡?¨òéí?×ê??2éè??Dó?+?D±¨μ??°???D2????±?￡ò?·???￡???ìú?￠?ˉ1¤?￠?¨2??￠1¤3ì?úDμμè?Dó?DDòμ?ú3é±????μ?￠Dè?ó???óμ?±3?°???áóDá?o?±í??￡?áíò?·???￡??D±¨3??¤?úμ?DDòμoí1????μμ?1?×￠?￡

????

??????2??¤èˉ?′o???óD×ê?′D?ì??÷DDòμ

????μ±?°1à?μò???o?·′ó3á??t2?òyáìμ??′???¤?ú?￡?ò1ú×ê±?êD3???óé?úéú3é?ìo?Díμ??Y??ú￡?3??ú±í???a1à?μí?éy￡??Doó?ú±í???a1à?μoíóˉà?????í?éy?￡?¨òé?úêD3??á11D?μ??????D￡??ü?ó×￠??òμ?¨μ??é?üD?￡??°?òè·?¨D????￠?úDè?÷μ?μ?DDòμ?￡?′o?μ?2ú?￠?oì??￠?eèú?￠éìòμ?￠ò?ò?ò??°????ò?D???óD×ê?′D?ì??÷μ?DDòμ?￡

????

????D?òμ?¤èˉ′|óúá÷?ˉD?ó?óˉà??°?????±?ú

??????°??êA1éêD3???′|óúá÷?ˉD?ó?óˉà??????y?ˉμ??°?????±?ú?￡ê×?è￡??í?éμ?á÷?ˉD??·?3?′±?￡?1é?±?ú′óàà×ê2ú?D′|óúó??è????μ?μ????￡??′?￡??¤??2009?êé?êD1???óˉà???′ó3??¤?ú?￡í?×ê2???é?￡?à?1?????DD?é￡??ì?úêD3???ê??êμ?é?éy?é?ü?áòy·￠2¨?ˉ?ó′ó?￡3¤??í?×ê??òàè??éò????ò?eèú?￠·?μ?2ú?￠?oì?μè′ó?ì1é?￡?éò?1?×￠?°?ú??·ù??oóμ??DD??ì1é?±￡?êüò?óú·?μ?2ú?′??μ?ò?D??ü?úD?DDòμ°üà¨?¨?t?úDμ?￠??ìú?￠???à?￠2￡á§?￠?ˉ1¤PVcμè￡?ò??°?D±¨òμ?¨?é?ü3??¤?úμ???1é?￡?÷ìaí?×ê?ú?á1?×￠2￠1o??×é￡???μ?1?×￠D???1ú?ó??o???×é??μ?í?×ê?ú?á?￡

????1úì??y°2??o￡??òμ×??μê±?ì1yè￥

????o￡??òμ×??μμ?ê±?ìò??1yè￥￡?μ??′??1y3ì?áóD2¨???￡êü1ú?ú??????ˉμ?ó°?ì￡???o￡?o???÷ê??òo?￡??Do￡·￠?1??êüò??￡?ì?ú?ú￡??t???èBDI′ó·ù?èé???′?à′?D1ú???ó?D?úòμ?¨μ?o?×a￡??ˉ??DDòμ??á???éyò2?é?ü′?à′?Do￡?ˉ??μ???ò×D??ú?á?￡?D3¤?ú?′o?óí??êD3??′??￡?í???3¤o?óí???￠?Déì??′??￡

????

????o￡í¨?¤èˉ?ˉ????DDòμ?°???è??éy

?????ˉ??DDòμ?àúá?2008?êμ?é??èμ÷??oó￡?2009-2010?ê??ì?1??ó??????μ?μ???é?￡?DDòμ??′|óú?°???òé?μ?1y3ì?D?￡???D?3?o×óDDòμ3??ú?é????o?￡?DDòμóˉà??????y???ù???′￡??ì?ú???ú2ú?·????é???·ù?è??′ó?￡μ÷??DDòμ?à???a?°??3??±￡??¨òé??μ?1?×￠o￡à?μ??￠????????￡

????

????

?????DD??¤èˉ????3μòμ?úá??ìD???3¤

????1ú?úDè?ó×üì?à?1?￡???°??ê??3μ?úá?í?±è????3¤30￡￥ò?é??￡?úá?ìáéy′??ˉòμ?¨?¤?úoí1à?μ￡?μ??íú?ú′ò??á?êD3?????3μDè?ó3?D?D?μ?1???￡???3???3μòμ??óú′óêDμ??à???￡?¨òé1?×￠ò?????3μ?￠é?o￡??3μ?￠?￡ì???3μ?￠ò????????￠?aóò??3μ?￠ò?????à??￠??2??ˉá|?￠ó?í¨?í3μ?￠?á???3μ?￠3¤°2??3μμè?￡

????

????3¤3??¤èˉ???ì??òμ?úá??·±è??3¤

????°é??×???ó??òμ??￠°×???￠????μèDDòμμ??′??￡?ò??°?ì??DDòμ′?í3??·?íú??μ?μ?à′￡?èy???è?ì??DDòμ?úá????ìD??·±è??éy?￡??×?????e2??′??￡?3??úoí??·????ˉ￡???í??ˉDDòμDè?ó?·±è??3¤￡??¤??èy???è??òμ?¨?ò??????í?±èé?éy?×???￡èy???è?¨òé1?×￠ì?????òμ?￠3??ù??òμoí2?????òμμè?￡

????

????éêò?íò1ú????o|ìì??í?????2ú?·

????????￠?a???????é?üμ?????μ?1à??2?×?????2ú￡????′?￠??′μ???μ?±?óêòy·￠oéà???o|￡?2ú?T??ot???￠ot±±?￠??÷?￠°2??êü??￡???±±μ????D±±2?oí?ú?é1???±±2?μ?3?D?μí??ò?óêìì??ó°?ìá??1×÷??éú3¤?￡oó?úìì??è?′??ú2?è·?¨D?￡?×?è???o|ò×í?????2ú?·?????￡1?×￠±±′ó???￠?Dá?ííoó?￠???tì?òμ?￡

????

????D?òμ?¤èˉ?????à°??éóDé????é?ü

???????à°??é?é?ü?ú8??μ×óà′D?ò???é???￡?àíóéê?￡o???￠??2????à??·?íú??μ?à′￡???·?oé?????¨