美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所-如何最好（不是）解決烏克蘭危機(jī)英

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HowBest(Not)toAddressthe

UkraineCrisis

ByJosephW.GlauberandVincentH.SmithJune2022

KeyPoints

?Russia’sinvasionofUkraine,atatimewhenglobalfoodstockswererelativelylowand

croppricesalreadyhigh,isfurtherexacerbatingglobalconcernsabouthungerandmal-

nutritionamongpoorhouseholdsinlow-incomecountries.

?TheUScanmitigateglobalfoodinsecuritybyincreasingthefundsavailableforfoodaid,

aswasdoneintheUkraineSupplementalAppropriationsAct,andrepealingshipping

andprocurementmandates,allowingtheUSAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentto

meetthoseneedsfarmoreefficiently.

?Otherproposals,suchasallowingfarmerstotakelandoutoftheConservationReserve

Programprematurely,subsidizingcropinsurancefordoublecroppingwheatandsoy-

beans,andfundingsmall-scalefertilizerproductionfacilitieswilldolittleornothingto

increasethefoodsupplyandcouldhaveunintendedadverseconsequences.

Russia’sinvasionofUkrainehasdisruptedglobal

wheat,corn,andothermarkets.Givenrelatively

lowglobalstocksformajorstaplefoodstuffs,1many

analystspredictthatfoodinsecuritywillincrease

amongpoorhouseholdsinlow-incomecountries.2

Understandably,manyworldleaders,includingthe

Bidenadministration,areconcernedabouthowto

bestaddressapotentialglobalhungercrisis.How-

ever,intherushto“dosomething,”leadersneed

toconsiderthemostefficientpoliciestoaddress

thecrisisandavoidill-consideredpoliciesthatmay

dolittletoaddresstheactualproblemsandcould

resultinunintendedconsequencesthatmaylinger

wellpastthecrisisitself.

Themosteffectivewayofaddressingglobalfood

supplyconcernswouldbeanimmediateendtothe

warandrebuildingcriticalinfrastructuressuchas

raillines,storagefacilities,andportfacilitiesto

allowUkraine’sagriculturalsectoraccesstoglobal

markets.Tothatend,theUNsecretarygeneral’s

effortstoendtheblockadeofUkrainegrainship-

pingandsupporttheestablishmentofabluecorri-

dorbyseaoragreencorridoroverlandtomove

foodstuffsfromUkraineshouldbesupported.

Unfortunately,thelikelihoodofaquickendtothe

warlooksincreasinglyfaint,andRussiahasgiven

nosignsthatitwouldconsidergrantingsafepas-

sageofUkrainefoodexportsthroughtheBlackSea.

TheBidenadministrationhasrecentlyputfor-

wardasetofproposalsaimedatincreasingUS

agriculturalproduction,loweringfertilizercosts,and

providinghumanitarianfoodaidtothosehurtby

thesharpincreaseinagriculturalprices.Herewe

considertheseproposalsandotherquestionable

policiessuchasopeningtheConservationReserve

Program(CRP)andconcludebydiscussingpolicies

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thatcouldprovidemoreimmediatereliefbyaddress-ingandmitigatingconstraintsinthevegetableoilmarket.

EffectivelyProvideHumanitarianAid

Oneclearpolicyinitiativewillmakeamajordiffer-enceinaddressingthewidelyexpectedincreaseinfoodinsecurityamongtheworld’spoorestpopula-tions:substantiallyincreasingthefundsavailableforfoodandotherformsofhumanitarianaid.Pres-identJoeBidensignedthe$40billionUkraineSup-plementalAppropriationsActintolawonMay21.3Thelegislationincludesover$5billionforinterna-tionalfoodaidandotherformsofhumanitarianassistance.TheUSAgencyforInternationalDevel-opment(USAID)explicitlytargetsover$4billiontoincreaseaidtolow-incomecountriesfacingseri-ousfoodinsecuritychallengesbecauseoftheUkraineconflict.

Thosefundsshouldbeusedasefficientlyaspossible,butasChristopherBarrettandVincentSmithrecentlyemphasized,4twomandatesshouldbesuspendedor,moreideally,permanentlyendedbecauseforyearstheyhavesubstantiallyincreasedthedeliverycostsassociatedwithgettingfoodaidtowhereitisneeded.Thesemandatesrequirethat50percentofallfoodaidbecarriedonUS-flaggedshipsandthatalmostallfoodaidbesourcedintheUnitedStates.Thosemandateshavewastedabout30percentoftheUSAIDfoodaidbudgetonunnec-essarilyexpensivedeliverycosts5anddelayeddeliv-eryoftheaidtowhereitisneededbyasmuchasfourmonths.6

Ending,orsuspending,thesetwomandateshasrecentlyreceivedbipartisansupportfrommembersoftheSenateCommitteeonForeignRelationsandtheHouseAppropriationsCommittee’sAgriculture,RuralDevelopment,FoodandDrugAdministration,andRelatedAgenciesSubcommittee.7Inaddition,SecretaryofAgricultureTomVilsackhasindicatedthatsuspendingcargopreferencerequirementswouldenablehumanitarianaidfundstobeusedmoreeffectively.SmithandBarrettalsopointedoutthatUSinternationalfoodaideffortscontributetonationalsecurityasanimportantformofsoftpowerthatpreventscivilunrestinlow-incomecountrieswithfragilepoliticalstructuresbyreduc-inghunger.

TheImpactsofRecentCropSubsidy

Proposals

Itisincreasinglylikelythatsuppliesofkeycom-moditiesfromUkraineand,potentially,Russiawillbeseverelydisruptedthroughout2022.Inresponse,countriesareseekingwaystoboostglobalsuppliestocompensateforthoselosses.Butwheatandotherpricesarehigh,andproducersalreadyhavesufficientincentivestoplantcrops.InaplantingintentionssurveyconductedbytheUSDepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)inearlyMarch(aftertheRussianinvasionhadstarted),producersindicatedtheywouldplant318millionacresin2022,thehighestlevelsince2018.8TheUSDAprojectsthattheglobalareaoutsideUkraineforwheat,feedgrains,andsoybeansin2022–23willincreaseby4.4millionhectares,almostoffsettingtheprojectedlossof4.7millionhectaresinUkraine.9

Policymakersshouldtakecaretoensurethatanyemergencymeasurestheytakedonotleadtoadditionalproblemsintheshortrunorlongrun.Likepreviousfoodpricecrises,thecurrentonewillalsopass,andagriculturalpriceswillretreattotheirlonger-termdynamics.Forexample,recentBidenadministrationproposalsincludedaninitia-tivetoprovidefarmersa$10peracresupplementalsubsidypaymentforcropinsuranceforasecondcrop(soybeans)plantedinthesamegrowingsea-sonaftertheirwheatcrophasbeenharvested.Theideaistoencourageproducerstoplantmorewheatthisfallinanticipationofdoublecroppingthoseacreswithsoybeansinspring2023.

Since1998,double-croppedsoybeanshaveaver-agedabout4.5millionacres,orabout11percentofwinterwheatplantings.Infact,double-croppedsoybeanplantingshavegenerallyfollowedsoybeanprices(Figure1).Wheatandsoybeanpricesareatrecordhighs.Thus,USproducershavestrongincentivestodoublecropwheatandsoybeanswherethepracticeisfeasible.In2013,forexample,producersdoublecropped7.7millionacresfollow-ingthen–recordhighsoybeanpricesin2012–13.Thelikelihoodthatprovidingadditionalcropinsur-ancesubsidiesforsecond-cropsoybeanswouldencourageadditionalwheatplantingsandUSwheatproductionthisyearseemsextremelysmall.

Further,providingadditionalsubsidiesthroughthecropinsuranceprogramcouldencouragemany

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Figure1.Double-CroppedSoybeanArea(MillionAcres)

Source:USDepartmentofAgriculture,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService,QuickStats,

/.

farmerstoengageinmoralhazardbehaviors,espe-ciallywiththesecondcrop.Whenacropisinsuredandcouldhavelowyields,asiscommonforsecondcrops,itisofteninthefarmer’sfinancialinteresttoreduceinputcosts(forexample,byreducingtheuseoffertilizersandpesticides)andloweryieldsevenfurthertoobtainlargerindemnitypaymentsforcroplosses.

Anotherill-advisedpolicyinitiativeistheadmin-istration’sproposaltodoubleitsinvestmentsinfertilizerproductionfrom$250millionto$500millionto“l(fā)owercostsandboostavailabilityforfarmers.”10First,ittakesawhile(typicallyseveralyears)fornewchemicalfertilizerplantsandplantexpansionstoobtainplanningapprovalandbebuilt.Second,newplantsthatsubstantiallycon-tributetoUSproductioncapacitytypicallyinvolveinvestmentsofbillionsofdollars,notmillionsofdollars.11Theadministration’sproposedfundinglevelisthereforeaproverbial“dropinthebucket”thatwoulddonothingtoincreaseaccesstoferti-lizersinthenextfewmonths.Third,naturalgasaccountsforabout80percentofthecostsofpro-ducingatonofnitrogenfertilizer,anduntilnaturalgaspricesfall,nitrogenfertilizerpricesarenotlikelytodecline.12

Severalagriculturalinterestgroupshavepro-posedallowingfarmerswithlandcurrentlyenrolled

intheCRPtoendtheircontractsearlywithoutfac-ingpenalties.Thesecontractstypicallyinvolvea10-yearcommitmentbythefarmer.TheCRPisanenvironmentalprogramthataimstoreducesoilerosionandmitigateclimatechange–relatedgreenhousegasemissions.13Asapracticalmatter,usuallyittakesatleastayeartoputCRPlandbackintocropproductionbecauseofcultivationchal-lenges(forexample,plowingunderexistingcoverssuchasnativegrassesandlandpreparationrequire-ments),anditwouldlikelyrequireextensiveferti-lizerapplicationsatatimewhenfertilizerpricesareatrecordlevels.Thus,intermsofexpandingthisyear’soutputofstaplecropssuchascornandwheat,theapproachisanonstarter.Alonger-runperspectiveonthisapproachinvolvesweighingthetrade-offsbetweenenvironmentalimpactsandwheatandcornproduction.

ActionsThatCouldMakeaDifference

Theimpactsonfoodpricesoftightcropsuppliesarebeingexacerbatedbystrongdemand,drivenpartlybybiofuelproduction.TheUSDAestimatesthatabout37percentofthe2022–23corncropwillgotoethanolproduction.14Thisisequivalenttoalmost21millionacres(nettingouttheroleofby-productsofethanolproductionsuchasdried

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distillersgrains,whichareimportantfeedstuffs).TheuseofsoybeanoilforbiodieselproductionisalsogrowingasUSexportsofsoybeanoilhavedeclined.TheUSDAestimatesthatover45percentofsoybeanoilnowgoestowardbiodieselproduc-tion.15

ThegrowthinbiofuelproductionisdrivenlargelybyregulationsunderthefederalRenewableFuelStandard(RFS),16whichsetsmandatedbiofuellev-elsforvehiclefuelconsumption,andstateinitia-tivessuchasCalifornia’sLowCarbonFuelStand-ard(LCFS),17whichmandatesreductionsincarbonemissionsfromfueluse.Inaddition,federaltaxcreditsallowblendersofbiodiesel(andrenewablediesel)toclaima$1pergalloncreditagainsttheirUSfederaltaxliability.18

Biofuelscouldseefurthergrowthinsuchman-datesoverthenextseveralyears.Lastmonth,theIowaHouseofRepresentativespassedlegislationthatwouldmandatefuelblendscontaining15per-centethanol.(MostgradesofgascurrentlysoldintheUScontain10percentethanolblends.)19LastSeptember,theBidenadministrationproposednewtaxcreditsforbiofuelstoproduce35billiongallonsofsustainableaviationfueltomeet100per-centofUSaviationfueldemandby2050.20

Howwouldwaivingthosemandatesaffectbio-fuelproduction?Forethanol,theimpactswouldlikelybesmall,atleastintheshortrun.Ethanolisusedasalow-costoctaneenhancerthatimprovesengineperformance.Eliminatingthemandateswouldletmarketforces,notmandates,determinehowmuchethanolwasblendedinthefuelsupply.21Biodiesel,ontheotherhand,isnotcommerciallyviablewithoutthemandatesandthe$1pergallontaxcredit.22Suspendingbothregulationswouldallowvegetableoiltogotowardfoodusessuchas

AbouttheAuthors

cookingoilsandsaladdressingsandprovideneededsuppliestoforeignmarkets.

Proponentsofethanolassertthatitisanimportanttoolinreducinggreenhousegasemis-sions,enhancingenergysecurity,andprovidingjobsinruralcommunities,buttheseclaimshavebeendisputed.Forexample,recentresearchpub-lishedintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesconcludesthatthecarbonintensityofcorn-basedethanolisnolessthangasolineandlikelyatleast24percenthigher.23AnalysisbytheUSDA’sEconomicResearchServicesuggeststhatjobsconnectedtoethanolplantsarefarlessthanindustry-sponsoredstudiesclaim.24TheenergysecurityargumentisundercutbythefactthattheUSisnowasignificantexporterofethanol,ship-ping1.2billiongallonstoothercountriesin2021.25

Conclusions

Russia’sinvasionofUkrainewilllikelymeanthathighagriculturalpriceswillcontinuethrough2022andwellinto2023.Unfortunately,mostpolicyresponses,howeverwell-meaning,areunlikelytoprovidemuchshort-termreliefandcouldexacer-bateglobalcropandfoodpriceincreasesandinstabilityincropmarkets.Thebestapproachmaybethesimplest:Allowmarketstoworkbyremov-ingdistortionsandsupportthemostvulnerablecountriesandhouseholdsviasocialsafetynetsand,wheremostneeded,humanitarianassistance. Thecurrentcrisispresentsanumberofimme-diatehumanitarianchallenges,butovertime,mar-ketsshouldeventuallyreturntonormalpatterns.

Inthemeantime,ascountriesliketheUnitedStatesrespondtohighpricesandotherconse-quencesofthecrisis,theyshouldtakecaretoavoidexacerbatingtheimpactsonothers.

JosephW.GlauberisanonresidentseniorfellowattheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute,wherehefocusesongeneralagriculturalpolicyincludingthefarmbill,cropinsurance,andagriculturalsubsidies.Concurrently,heisaseniorresearchfellowattheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.

VincentH.SmithisanonresidentseniorfellowattheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteanddirectoroftheAEIagriculturalstudiesprogram.HeisprofessorofeconomicsintheDepartmentofAgriculturalEconomicsandEconomicsandcodirectoroftheAgriculturalMarketingPolicyCenteratMontanaStateUniversity.

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Notes

1.JosephW.GlauberandDavidLaborde,“HowWillRussia’sInvasionofUkraineAffectGlobalFoodSecurity?,”InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,February24,2022,

/blog/how-will-russias-invasion-ukraine-affect-global-

food-security.

2.UNFoodandAgricultureOrganization,“TheImportanceofUkraineandtheRussianFederationforGlobalAgriculturalMarketsandtheRisksAssociatedwiththeCurrentConflict,”2022

,/3/cb9013en/cb9013en.pdf.

3.WhiteHouse,“BillsSigned:H.R.7691andH.R.7791,”pressrelease,May21,2022,

/briefing-

room/legislation/2022/05/21/bills-signed-h-r-7691-and-h-r-7791/.

4.ChristopherBarrettandVincentH.Smith,“ToAddressUkraine’sHumanitarianNeeds,SuspendOutdatedFoodAidRestrictions,”AEIdeas,March2,2022,

/american-boondoggle/to-address-ukraines-humanitarian-needs-

suspend-outdated-food-aid-restrictions/.

5.VincentH.Smith,PhilipG.Hoxie,andStephanieMercier,“FoodAidCargoPreference:ImpactsontheEfficiencyandEffectivenessofEmergencyFoodAidPrograms”(workingpaper,AmericanEnterpriseInstitute,Washington,DC,August31,2021),

/research-products/working-paper/food-aid-cargo-preference-impacts-on-the-efficiency-and-effectiveness-

of-emergency-food-aid-programs/.

6.ElizabethR.Bageant,ChristopherBarrett,andErinC.Lentz,“FoodAidandAgriculturalCargoPreference,”AppliedEconomicPerspectiveandPolicy32,no.4(2010):624–41.

7.PhillipBrasher,“GlobalCrisisSparksDebateoverFoodAidNeed,ShippingCosts,”AgriPulse,May4,2022

,https://www.agri-

/articles/17625-global-crisis-sparks-debate-over-food-aid-need-shipping-costs.

8.USDepartmentofAgriculture,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService,“ProspectivePlantings,”March31,2022,

/concern/publications/x633f100h.

9.CalculationsbytheauthorsusingUSDepartmentofAgriculture,ForeignAgriculturalService,Production,SupplyandDistribution

,/psdonline/app/index.html.

10.OnMarch11,abouttwoweeksafterRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,theBidenadministrationannouncedthatthe“USDAwilluse fundsfromtheCommodityCreditCorporation(CCC)setasideinSeptemberformarketdisruptionstodevelopagrantprogram thatprovides‘gap’financingtobringnew,independentdomesticproductioncapacityon-line.”SeeUSDepartmentofAgriculture,“USDAAnnouncesPlansfor$250MillionInvestmenttoSupportInnovativeAmerican-MadeFertilizertoGiveUSFarmersMoreChoicesintheMarketplace,”pressrelease,March11,2022,

/media/press-releases/2022/03/11/usda-announces-

plans-250-million-investment-support-innovative.

11.See,forexample,thecostofbuildinganewplantinSiouxCityin2015.MatthewPatane,“SiouxCityFertilizerPlantCostsHit$2Billion,”DesMoinesRegister,March5,2015,

/story/money/business/2015/03/05/cf-industries-

sioux-city-fertilizer-plant-two-billion-dollars/24436039/.

12.GaryW.BresterandVincentH.Smith,“HighFertilizerPrices:SupplyandDemandatWorkMuddledbyWarandMarketInterventions,”AmericanEnterpriseInstitute,May2,2022,

/research-products/report/high-fertilizer-prices-

supply-and-demand-at-work-muddled-by-war-and-market-interventions/.

13.See,forexample,ErikLichtenberg,“TheFarmBill,Conservation,andtheEnvironment,”inAgriculturalPolicyinDisarray,ed.VincentH.Smith,JosephW.Glauber,andBarryK.Goodwin(Washington,DC:AEIPress,2018):2:169–97.

14.USDepartmentofAgriculture,OfficeoftheChiefEconomist,“WorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates,”May12,2022,

/oce/commodity/wasde.

15.USDepartmentofAgriculture,OfficeoftheChiefEconomist,“WorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates.”

16.USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,“RenewableFuelStandardProgram,”

/renewable-fuel-standard-

program

.

17.CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard,“LowCarbonFuelStandard,”

/our-work/programs/low-carbon-fuel-

standard

.

18.ScottIrwin,“BlenderandProducerSharingofRetroactivelyReinstatedBiodieselTaxCredits:TimeforaChange?,”farmdocdaily7,no.62(2017)

,/2017/04/blender-and-producer-sharing-retroactively.html.

19.ToddNeeley,“E15MeasureAdvancesinIowaLegislature,”P(pán)rogressiveFarmer,February3,2022,

/

agri