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專題四Part1高頻詞匯12accountingrateof3atthe45call6put7call8capital9capitalcouponDCFmethod/discountedflowdebenturedegearingβofdividendEqualizedprojectex-dividendexpiryintheInternalrateof內(nèi)含內(nèi)含issuing日MutuallyexclusiveNetpresentNominalnormalNPVopportunityoutoftheparPaybackputtreasuryregearingβoftargetrepaymentatrepaymentatsinkingtrade-offtreasuryupwarddownwardPart2重難點(diǎn)講解之一資本預(yù)算一、投資項(xiàng)目的評價方法1NetpresentvalueNetpresentvalueisthedifferencebetweenthepresentvalueaproject’sfuturecashinflowandthepresentvalueofaproject’sfuturecashoutflow2PresentvalueindexPresentvalueindexreferstotheratiooffuturecashinflowcash3內(nèi)含率法InternalrateofreturnNPV=0(IRR)Internalrateofreturnisthediscountratethatmakesthepresentvalueoffuturecashinflowequaltothepresentvalueoffuturecashoutflow.Statedanotherway,IRRisadiscountratethatwillmakeNPV1PaybackperiodStaticpaybackperiodmethod(non-discountedpaybackperiodStaticpaybackperiodisthetimeneededforinvestmentoutflowtoequaltothecash2DynamicpaybackperiodDynamicpaybackperiodreferstotheamountoftimerequiredmakesthecashinflowequaltoinvestmentoutflowwhentakingintoaccountthetimevalueofmoney.3會計(jì)率法AccountingrateofItisbasedonaccountingdatainthefinancialstatementscomputetherateofreturn. Accountingrateofreturn=averageannualnetprofit/initialinvestment×100%Advantagesofpaybackperiod:Calculationissimpleandeasilyunderstood.Itcangenerallymeasuretheliquidityandriskoftheproject.Disadvantagesofpaybackperiod:1.Itignoresthetimevalueofmoneyasitregardsnodifferenceofcashflowsatdifferenttime.2.Itdoesnotconsiderthecashflowafterthepaybackperiodwhichmeanstheprofitabilityisnotconsidered.3.Ittendstomakeacceptshort-termprojectsandabandonstrategiclong-term動性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn);3Advantages:1Calculationissimpleandeasilyunderstood.2Itcangenerallymeasuretheliquidityandriskoftheprojectwithconsiderationoftimevalueofmoney.Disadvantages:Itignorescashflowsoccurringafterthepaybackperiod,northemeasureofprofitability.Itmakesthetoacceptshort-termprojectsandabandonstrategiclong-termAdvantagesofaccountingrateofreturnmethod:Itasimplemethodformeasuringprofitability,useseasilyunderstoodconceptandaccessiblefinancialreportingdata,considersallprofitsthroughouttheprojectlifecycle;revealsthechangeoffinancialstatementsaftertheimplementationoftheproject,makesmanagersawareofperformanceexpectations,andfacilitatesprojectevaluatione.Disadvantagesofaccountingrateofreturnmethod:Itignoreseffectofdepreciationoncashflowandeffectofdistributionof eoneconomicvalueoftheIfprojectshaveequalprojectlifeperiod,thencomparenetpresentvalueswitheachother,theoptimalprojecthasthehighestNPVIfprojectshaveunequalusefullifeperiod,thentwomethodswouldbeused:equalizedprojectlifemethod、equivalentannuity1Equalizedprojectlifemethod:resettwoprojectstosamelife,andchoosetheprojectwiththelargestnetpresent2Equivalentannuitymethod:computeaveragevalueofnetpresentvalueofprojectswithdifferentprojectlives(usingpresentvalueofannuityfactor)andfindtheequivalentannuity,thencomparethepresentvalueofannuityandchoosethehighestpresentvalueofequivalentCashflowestimationofinvestment1Cashflow2Cashflow3Cashflowoffixedassetsrenovation4Effectetaxanddepreciationoncash5Schedulingproblemsofmutuallyexclusive1Distinguishrelevantcostandirrelevant2(2)Opportunity3Theimpactonothercompanies’projectposedonthenshouldbe4ImpactonworkingysisofcashflowoffixedassetsrenovationdecisionmakingThemaincashflowoffixedassetsrenovationiscashoutflow,evenasmallamountofresidualcash eisadeductionofexpenditure,ratherthananincreaseofinflow.Becausethereisonlythecashoutflow,butnocashinflow,therefore,thebetterysismethodistocomparetheannualcostofusingexistingfixedassetswithrenovation,ofwhichtheloweroneis(2)AverageannualcostoffixedTheaverageannualcostoffixedassetsreferstotheaverageannualcashoutflowarisingfromtheassets.Withoutconsideringthetimevalueofmoney,thecalculationofaverageannualcostis"futurelifetimetotalcashoutflow/lifeConsideringthetimevalueofmoney,thecalculationofaverageannualcostis"futurelifetimetotalcashoutflow/annuityetaxwouldinfluencethecashflowbecause etaxisacashoutflow,depreciationwouldinfluencethecashflowdepreciationisdeductible e(1)EffectontheinitialcashflowtocontinuetousetheoldequipmentIftheoldequipmentcanbesold,“usingtheoldequipment”means“notsellingtheoldequipment”,therefore, etaxpayablebytheoldequipmentistreatedascashinflowof“usingtheoldequipment”;theofoldequipmentcandeduct etaxandshouldbeascashoutflowof“usingtheoldOperatingcashflows=operatingrevenue-current etax-investmentinworking=After-taxoperatingrevenue-after-taxcurrentoutlaycost+taxbenefitsofdepreciation-investmentinworkingcapital=Operating etaxrate)-currentoutlay etaxrate)+depreciation etaxrateinvestmentinworking(3)EffectofcashflowofattheendofprojectIfthe efromtherealizationofequipmentisgreaterthanzero,itneedstopay etax,cashoutflowisincreasedandnetcashflowisreducedIfthe efromtherealizationofequipmentissmallerthanzero,itneedstodeduct etax,cashoutflowisreducedandnetcashflowisincreased1·201310車按直計(jì)提折舊,折舊年限為5年,殘值率為5%。10個月后大客車的變現(xiàn)價值預(yù)計(jì)為210000元。甲公司需要雇傭一名,每月預(yù)計(jì)支出工資5500元。此外,每月預(yù)計(jì)還需支出油料費(fèi)120001500公司支付25000元,在每個月月末支付。計(jì) Monthlydepreciationofmotorbus=300000×95%60=4750(Yuan)Monthlydepreciationtaxcredit=4750×25%=1187.5Monthlyafter-taxoutofpocketCarryingvalueofmotorbusafter10months=300000-4750×10=252500Netcashinflowofmotorbusafter10months=210000-(210000-252500)×25%=220625(Yuan)After-taxaveragemonthlycost=300000÷(P/A,1%,10)220625÷(F/A,10%,10)==23649.32After-taxmonthlyrentofleaseprogram=25000×(1-25%)=18750(Yuan)Becausetheafter-taxmonthlyrentofleaseprogramislessthantheafter-taxaveragemonthlycostofpurchaseprogram,therentalprogramshouldbeadopted.或者Pretaxaveragemonthlycostofpurchaseprogram=23649.32/Becausethemonthlyrentofleaseprogramislessthanthepretaxaveragemonthlycostofpurchaseprogram,therentalprogramshouldbeadopted.200萬元,無形資產(chǎn)投資25萬元。該項(xiàng)目年平均凈收益為24萬元,該企業(yè)收益與市場指數(shù)之間的協(xié)方差為0.8,市場指數(shù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為0.4,資本市場中的無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益率為2%,該企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益率為8.625%。該企業(yè)權(quán)益比為8:2(假設(shè)資本結(jié)構(gòu)保持不變),利息率為10%,該25%。企業(yè)各年的現(xiàn)金流量如下:0(1)資本成本Costofdebt=10%×(1-25%)=7.5%;Costofequity=2%+8.625%=10.625%SotheappropriatediscountrateisProjectoperatingperiod=7-2=5(年會計(jì)率accountingrateof01234567Cash0cashflowscash0cashStaticpaybackperiodincludinginitialperiod=5+49.8/88.4=5.56(年)Discountedpaybackperiodincludinginitialperiod=6+62.54/94.84=6.66(年NPVofproject=32.3(萬元15010NPVofscenarioEquivalentannuityofAscenario=25/(P/A,10%,6)=25/4.3553=5.74(tenthousandyuan)EquivalentannuityofBscenario=19.87/(P/A,10%,4)=19.87/3.1699=6.27(tenthousandyuan)Conclusion:shouldchooseBThesmallestcommonmultipleof4and6isAscenariorequiresonetimeresettingwhileBscenariorequirestwotimesNPVofAscenariousingequalizedprojectlifeNPVofBscenariousingequalizedprojectlifemethod=19.87+19.87×(P/F,10%,Conclusion:shouldchooseBQuestion1:Whydoescapitalbudgetingrelyonysisofcashflowsratherthanonnet solution:Cashflowratherthannet eisusedincapitalbudgetingysisbecausetheprimaryconcerniswiththeamountofactualdollarsgenerated.Forexample,depreciationissubtractedoutinarrivingatnet e,butthisnon-cashdeductionshouldbeaddedbackintodeterminecashfloworactualdollarsgenerated.Part2重難點(diǎn)講解之一價值評一、到期日價值的計(jì)算(以為例Computingoptionvalueatmaturitydate(shareoptionasan(一)買入看漲LongcallOptionvalueatmaturity(1)多頭看漲到期日價Longcalloptionvalueatmaturity/expiration=Max(stockprice-exerciseprice,0)Netprofitorlossofoption多頭看漲凈損益Netprofitorlossoflongcall=longcalloptionvalueatmaturity/expirationdate-option(二)賣出看漲ShortcallShortcalloptionvalueat=-Max(stockprice-exerciseprice,Netprofitorlossofshortcall=shortcalloptionvalueatmaturity/expirationdate+option(三)買入看跌LongputLongputoptionvalueatmaturity/expiration=Max(exerciseprice-stockprice,0)Netprofitorlossoflongput=longputoptionvalueatmaturity/expirationdate-option(四)賣出看跌ShortputShortputoptionvalueatmaturity/expiration=-Max(exerciseprice-stockprice,0)Netprofitorlossofshortput=shortputoptionvalueatmaturity/expirationdate+option二、的投資策Investmentstrategyof1Protectiveput2Coveredcall3Strategy指的是一股,同時1。Itreferstothepurchaseof1shareand1putoptionofsamestockatthesameStrategyIfthesharepriceislessthantheexerciseprice,youlocktheminimum eandthelowestnetprofitloss,ontheotherhand,if eislowerthaninvestment,ofwhichisreducedbyanamountequaltooptionStrategy指的是1股,同時該1股的看Itreferstothepurchaseof1shareandsell1callofthesamestockatthesameStrategyIfsharepriceisgreaterthanexercisepriceatexpirydate,theumnet eandthehighestnetprofitorlosscanbelocked.Onthecontrary,thenetlosswillbelowerthanjustsimplypurchasingtheshares,ofwhichisreducedbyanamountequaltotheoption對 多StrategyStraddleisdividedintolongstraddleandshortLongstraddlereferstotheholdofacalloptionandaputoptionwiththesameexercisepriceandtimetomaturity.StrategyTheworstresultoflongstraddleisthestockpriceandthestrikepricearethesameatexpirydate,theinvestorwouldlosethecostofcallandputoptions.Aslongasthepriceisnotequaltothestrikeprice,thecombinationofneteisgreaterthan0,thedeviationofstockpricethestrikepricemustbemorethanoptionpurchasecost,thenitcanbringbenefitforinvestors.Strategyshortstranglereferstosellcalloptionandputoption對 空samesharesimultaneously,exercisepriceandmaturityofthemaresame.ShortstranglestrategyisusefulinvestorswhoexpectmarketpricewouldberelativelyStrategyTheworstresultofshortstrangleismaturitypriceisdifferentfromexerciseprice,nomatterhowthesharepricechanged,investorswouldsuffereddevastatinglosses;thebestresultismaturitypriceisequaltoexerciseprice,investorslyearn efromsellingcalloptionandput三、價值的影響因Factorsaffectingoption1Marketvalueof2Exercise3Timeto4Volatilityofshare5Risk-interest6ExpectedThevalueofcalloptionincreaseswiththerisingshareThevalueofputoptiondecreaseswiththeincreaseofThehighertheexercisepriceofcalloption,thesmallertheoptionvalue;thehighertheexercisepriceofputoption,thegreateroptionForAmericancalloption,thelongerthetimetomaturity,thegreaterthevalueisFortheEuropeancalloption,longertimetomaturitymayincreasetheoptionVolatilityreferstotheuncertaintyofstockpricechange,andisusuallymeasuredwithstandarddeviation.TheincreaseofthesharepricevolatilitywillincreasethevalueofThehighertherisk-interestis,thehigherthepriceacalloptionandthelowerpriceofputThevalueofputoptionmoveswiththesamedirectionwiththeamountofexpecteddividend,andthevalueofcalloptionmoveswiththeoppositedirectionwiththeamountof四、金融價值評估的方Methodofoption1Replicating2Hedgingprinciple(thecaseofpurchasingstockandcall3Risk-neutralThebasicidea:anappropriateportfolioofstockandloanisconstructed,makinggainsandlossesoftheportfolioarethesamewiththeoptionregardlessofthechangesofshareprice,sothecostofconstructingtheinvestmentportfolioistheoptionConfirmingthepossiblesharepriceatmaturitydateUpwardmovementshareprice=currentshareprice×upwardmovementmultiplierDownwardmovementshareprice=currentsharepricedownwardmovementAccordingtoexerciseprice,calculateoptionvaluematurity/expirationOptionvalueatmaturitydateatupwardmovementshare=Max(Upwardmovementshareprice-exerciseprice,Optionvalueatmaturitydateatdownwardmovementprice=Max(downwardmovementshareprice-exerciseCalculatethehedgingHedgingratio=(optionvalueatupwardmovementpricematuritydate-optionvalueatdownwardmovementpricematuritydate)/(upwardmovementsharemovementshareprice)=thedifferencebetweenupwardvalueanddownwardoptionvalue/thedifferenceupwardsharepriceanddownwardshareCalculatecostofinvestmentTheexpenditureofpurchasingshares=hedgingratiocurrentshareLoan=(downwardmovementsharepriceatmaturitydate×hedgingratio-calloptionvalueatdownwardmovementsharepriceatmaturitydate)/(1+risk-interestrate)Optionvalue=costofinvestmentportfolio=theexpenditureofpurchasingshares-loan(borrowing)Risk-neutraltheory:assumingthattheattitudeoftowardriskisneutral,theexpectedrateofreturnofsecuritiesshouldbetherisk-interestrate.neutralinvestorsdonotneed etofortherisk.Intherisk-neutralworld,expectedvaluediscountedbyrisk-interestrate,thenthepresentofcashflowcanbeInthiscase,theexpectedrateofreturnshouldsatisfywiththefollowingformulaExpectedrateofreturn=upwardprobability×rateofreturnofupwardmovement+downwardprobability×ra
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