油脂油料月報：對投研的幾點思考

市場邏輯推演01

當下市場在交易什么0203

后市展望目錄contents數(shù)據(jù)來源:文化財經(jīng)，招商期貨當下市場在交易什么：美豆豐產(chǎn)預期數(shù)據(jù)來源:文化財經(jīng)，招商期貨當下市場在交易什么：交易成本端下移數(shù)據(jù)來源:文化財經(jīng)，招商期貨當下市場在交易什么：國內(nèi)基本面階段反轉數(shù)據(jù)來源：招商期貨當下市場在交易什么：豆菜粕縮1,1001,0009008007006005004003001,2009/169/239/3010/710/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/1612/2312/301/61/131/201/272/32/102/172/243/33/103/173/243/314/74/144/214/285/55/125/195/266/26/96/166/236/307/77/147/217/288/48/118/188/251409M-RM1509M-RM1609M-RM1709M-RM1809M-RM1909M-RM2020M-RM2021M-RM2022M-RM2023M-RM數(shù)據(jù)來源：USDA,

WORLDAGWEATHER，招商期貨邏輯推演：美豆播種順利80%60%40%20%0%100%17-Apr1-May15-May29-May12-Jun26-Jun美豆播種進度2019

過去五年均值20202022201820212023數(shù)據(jù)來源：USDA，招商期貨邏輯推演：美豆豐產(chǎn)預期0102030405060100,00090,00080,00070,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000010/11

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23/24美豆種植面積（千英畝）大豆單產(chǎn)5,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500010/11

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23/24美豆產(chǎn)量（百萬蒲氏耳）邏輯推演：美豆庫存重建15/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/2323/24種植面積（千英畝）82,70083,40090,20089,20076,10083,40087,20087,50087,505收獲面積81,80082,70089,50087,60074,90082,60086,30086,30086,700起初庫存191197302438909525257274215產(chǎn)量（百萬蒲氏耳）3,9264,2964,4124,4283,5524,2164,4654,2764,510進口242222141520162020總供應4,1414,5154,7364,8804,4764,7614,7384,5704,745壓榨1,8861,8992,0552,0922,1652,1412,2042,2202,310出口1,9362,1742,1341,7481,6822,2662,1582,0151,975食用消費000000000種用殘值12214010913110497102120125總需求3,9444,2134,2983,9713,9514,5044,4644,3554,410美豆庫存197302438909525257274215335庫存消費比5.07.210.222.913.35.76.14.97.6大豆單產(chǎn)48.051.949.350.547.451.051.749.552.0數(shù)據(jù)來源：USDA，招商期貨數(shù)據(jù)來源：USDA，招商期貨邏輯推演：美豆庫存重建05,00010,00015,00020,00010-Mar10-Apr10-May10-Jun10-Jul10-Aug2016/20172020/20212017/20182021/20222018/20192022/20232019/20202023/2024美豆新作累計銷售進度（千噸）數(shù)據(jù)來源：招商期貨邏輯推演：國內(nèi)豆系庫存階段快速重建02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000OctNov DecJanFebMarAprMay JunJulAug Sep中國進口大豆商業(yè)庫存(千噸)‘15/16‘19/20‘16/17‘20/21‘17/18‘21/22‘18/19‘22/235152535455565Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJulAug Sep進口大豆庫存消費天數(shù)‘18/19‘14/15’19/20‘15/16’20/21‘16/17‘21/22‘17/18‘22/23數(shù)據(jù)來源：上海鋼聯(lián)，招商期貨邏輯推演：菜系累庫壓力大幅低于預期8007006005004003002001000Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep菜籽庫存（千噸）13/1418/1914/1519/2015/1620/2116/1721/2217/1822/230100200300400500600700OctNovDecJanFebMar

AprMay

Jun Jul Aug

Sep中國菜籽月度壓榨量（千噸）17/1818/1919/2016/17

20/2121/2222/23數(shù)據(jù)來源：招商期貨邏輯推演：豆粕基差快速走弱后市展望：正常天氣下，交易季節(jié)性下行數(shù)據(jù)來源：文華財經(jīng)，招商期貨數(shù)據(jù)來源：招商期貨后市展望：豆系弱于菜系1,1001,0009008007006005004003001,2009/169/239/3010/710/1410/2110/2811/411/1111/1811/2512/212/912/1612/2312/301/61/131/201/272/32/102/172/243/33/103/173/243/314/74/144/214/285/55/125/195/266/26/96/166/236/307/77/147/217/288/48/118/188/251409M-RM1509M-RM1609M-RM1709M-RM1809M-RM1909M-RM2020M-RM2021M-RM2022M-RM2023M-RM數(shù)據(jù)來源:文化財經(jīng)，招商期貨當下油脂市場在交易什么：交易產(chǎn)區(qū)季節(jié)性增產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)來源:文化財經(jīng)，招商期貨當下油脂市場在交易什么：交易成本端下移數(shù)據(jù)來源:招商期貨當下油脂市場在交易什么：豆棕縮及菜棕縮-50005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50017-Sep17-Nov17-Jan17-Mar17-May17-Jul12OI9-Y916OI9-Y920OI9-Y913OI9-Y917OI9-Y921OI9-Y914OI9-Y918OI9-Y922OI9-Y915OI9-Y919OI9-Y923OI9-Y099007005003001,1001,9001,7001,5001,3002,10019-Sep19-Nov19-Jan19-Mar19-May19-Jul16Y09-P0920Y09-P0917Y09-P0921Y09-P914Y09-P0918Y09-P922Y09-P0915Y09-P0919Y09-P0923Y09-P09邏輯推演：大格局來看，年度供需雙增，寬松年，且菜油供給增幅最大數(shù)據(jù)來源：OILWORLD，招商期貨20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000011/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/23全球油脂庫存（千噸）庫存消費比6,0004,0002,0000-2,000-4,000-6,000-8,00011/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/22

22/23全球油脂產(chǎn)量-需求（千噸）15/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/23F增減同比棕櫚油58,70066,41073,66077,93074,16076,01077,34080,3202,9803.9%豆油51,37053,52056,95056,61058,57059,44060,07061,2301,1601.9%葵花油15,94018,93018,89020,06021,53018,93020,56020,8502901.4%菜籽油25,40025,06025,62025,15025,26027,18025,97028,7102,74010.6%花生油3,6504,1704,2903,7404,1404,2804,7304,650(80)-1.7%棉籽油4,0804,1404,7204,5704,6804,4404,3404,5101703.9%棕櫚油仁油6,3407,0107,7008,1507,8807,9408,1308,4102803.4%椰子油2,5902,4802,7502,9602,6902,6503,1502,910(240)-7.6%總供應168,070181,720194,580199,170198,910200,870204,290211,5907,3003.6%供給增量預期單位：千噸邏輯推演：預期步入季節(jié)性增產(chǎn)周期數(shù)據(jù)來源：MPOB，MPOA，

GAPKI，招商期貨9001,1001,3001,5001,7001,9002,100Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJulAug Sep Oct Nov Dec20162020201720212018202220192023馬來棕櫚產(chǎn)量（千噸）1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2023年馬來西亞毛棕月產(chǎn)量與10年均值2023 10年Avg01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000Jan Feb MarApr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec印尼棕櫚產(chǎn)量（千噸）20162020201720212018202220192023-15.0%-10.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23

Apr-23-5.0%MPOA1-20日馬棕產(chǎn)量環(huán)比邏輯推演：庫存分化，整體中性水平數(shù)據(jù)來源：國家糧油信息中心，招商期貨20406080100120國內(nèi)棕櫚庫存（萬噸）2019201520202016202120172022201820230501001502002-Jan2-Feb

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2-Dec02-Jan2-Feb2-Mar2-Apr2-May2-Jun2-Jul2-Aug2-Sep2-Oct2-Nov

2-De國內(nèi)菜油庫存（萬噸）

20142019201520202016202120172022201820230501001502002503003502-Jan2-Feb

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2-Nov2-De國內(nèi)三大油脂庫存（萬噸）2014

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201820222019 2020 20212023數(shù)據(jù)來源：招商期貨邏輯推演：豆油領銜油脂基差走弱數(shù)據(jù)來