國際經濟學總結

LaborProductivityandComparativeAdvantage李嘉圖模型說明國家之間的差異如何導致貿易所得，它是最簡單的一個。在這個模型里，勞動是各個國家產業(yè)部門的惟一生產要素，勞動生產率的不同是各個國家產業(yè)部門之間的惟一不同點。在李嘉圖模型中，一國出口勞動生產率有相對優(yōu)勢(和絕對優(yōu)勢相對)的產品。我們可以用兩種方法來說明國際貿易對國家有利:我們可以把貿易看作是一種間接生產的方法。模型還說明貿易擴大了一個國家的消費可能性。貿易所得的分配取決于各國產品的相對價格。將兩種產品的單一要素模型擴展到具有多種產品的世界市場范圍說明了運輸費用導致了非貿易品的產生。李嘉圖模型的根本理論即國家傾向于出口勞動生產率相對高的產品，已經被許多研究所證實。1.theimplicationsofRMonChina?2.iflowerwageadvantageisfairtoforeigncountrys?SpecificFactorsandIncomeDistributionTheSpecificFactorsModel特定要素模型中，資源的不同使各國的相對供應曲線不同，并因而產生了國際貿易。特定要素模型中，國際貿易通常影響各國內部的收入分配，所以貿易中有得益者也有受損者。每個國家出口部門特定要素的擁有者從貿易中獲利，而與進口產品競爭的部門的特定要素的擁有者受損。流動要素的擁有者可能受益也可能受損。當貿易獲益者補償受損者的損失后有利可圖時，可以認為貿易從整體上帶來了收益。產生收入分配效應差異的原因有兩個:生產要素不能迅速地、無本錢地從一個生產部門轉移到另一個生產部門。一個國家產品組合的變化對不同生產要素需求影響不同。1.Tradeoftenproduceslosersaswellaswinners,whatisyouropiniononOptimalTradePolicyChinaandreputationof“worldfactory〞Howdotheoutputsofthetwogoodschangewhentheeconomy’sresourceschange?RybczynskiTheorem(effect):Ifafactorofproduction(TorL)increases,thenthesupplyofthegoodthatusesthisfactorintensivelyincreasesandthesupplyoftheothergooddecreasesforanygivencommodityprices.Thereverseisalsotrue.DifferencebetweenthespecificfactorsmodelandtheHeckscher-Ohlinmodelintermsofincomedistributioneffects:Thespecificityoffactorstoparticularindustriesisoftenonlyatemporaryproblem.Example:Garmentmakerscannotbecomecomputermanufacturesovernight,butgiventimetheU.S.economycanshiftitsmanufacturingemploymentfromdecliningsectorstoexpandingones.Incontrast,effectsoftradeonthedistributionofincomeamongland,labor,andcapitalaremoreorlesspermanent.Factor-PriceEqualizationTheorem:Internationaltradeleadstocompleteequalizationintherelativeandabsolutereturnstohomogeneousfactorsacrosscountries.Itimpliesthatinternationaltradeisasubstitutefortheinternationalmobilityoffactors.Threeassumptionscrucialtothepredictionoffactorpriceequalizationareinrealityuntrue:BothcountriesproducebothgoodsBothcountrieshavethesametechnologiesinproductionBothcountrieshavethesamepricesofgoodsduetotradeOnethingthefactor-priceequalizationtheoremdoesnotsayisthatinternationaltradewilleliminateorreduceinternationaldifferencesinpercapitaincomes.LeontiefparadoxLeontieffoundthatU.S.exportswerelesscapital-intensivethanU.S.imports,eventhoughtheU.S.isthemostcapital-abundantcountryintheworld.EmpiricalevidenceontheHeckscher-Ohlinmodelhasledtothefollowingconclusions:Ithasbeenlesssuccessfulatexplainingtheactualpatternofinternationaltrade.Ithasbeenusefulasawaytoanalyzetheeffectsoftradeonincomedistribution.赫克歇爾-俄林模型，是一個兩產品、兩要素的模型，它強調了資源稟賦在貿易中起到的作用。勞動密集型產品相對價格的上升會使收入分配急劇地向有利于勞開工人的方向轉變。在給定產品價格下，生產要素的增加會使密集使用該要素的產品供應增加，其它不密集使用該要素的產品供應減少。赫克歇爾-俄林模型預期會出現(xiàn)以下的貿易模式:一個國家會出口密集使用該國充裕要素的產品，會進口密集使用該國稀缺要素的產品。一國充裕要素的所有者會從貿易中獲益，而稀缺要素的所有者會因貿易而受損。由于各國之間資源稟賦、生產技術上的巨大差異以及貿易壁壘的存在，要素價格的完全均等化不存在。對赫克歇爾-俄林模型的實證檢驗結論不統(tǒng)一,大多數(shù)研究者認為，資源稟賦的差異不能很好的解釋國際貿易模式或世界要素價格。Discussingtopic:HollandillsandnewRybczynskieffectinChina?標準貿易模型Previoustradetheorieshaveemphasizedspecificsourcesofcomparativeadvantagewhichgiverisetointernationaltrade:Differencesinlaborproductivity(Ricardianmodel)Differencesinresources(specificfactorsmodelandHeckscher-Ohlinmodel)Thestandardtrademodelisbuiltonfourkeyrelationships:ProductionpossibilityfrontierandtherelativesupplycurveRelativepricesandrelativedemandWorldrelativesupplyandworldrelativedemandTermsoftradeandnationalwelfareIndifferencecurvesTheyhavethreeproperties:DownwardslopingThefartherupandtotherighteachlies,thehigherthelevelofwelfaretowhichitcorrespondsEachgetsflatteraswemovetotherightThemovefromD1toD2reflectstwoeffects:IncomeeffectSubstitutioneffectTheWelfareEffectofChangesintheTermsofTradeTermsoftradeThepriceofthegoodacountryinitiallyexportsdividedbythepriceofthegooditinitiallyimports.Ariseinthetermsoftradeincreasesacountry’swelfare,whileadeclineinthetermsoftradereducesitswelfare.Iseconomicgrowthinothercountriesgoodorbadforournation?Itmaybegoodforournationbecauseitmeanslargermarketsforourexports.Itmaymeanincreasedcompetitionforourexporters.Isgrowthinacountrymoreorlessvaluablewhenthatnationispartofacloselyintegratedworldeconomy?Itshouldbemorevaluablewhenacountrycansellsomeofitsincreasedproductiontotheworldmarket.Itislessvaluablewhenthebenefitsofgrowtharepassedontoforeignersratherthanretainedathome.BiasedgrowthCanoccurfortworeasons:TechnologicalprogressinonesectoroftheeconomyIncreaseinacountry’ssupplyofafactorofproductionInternationalEffectsofGrowthExport-biasedgrowthintherestoftheworldimprovesourtermsoftrade,whileimport-biasedgrowthabroadworsensourtermsoftrade.Export-biasedgrowthinourcountryworsensourtermsoftrade,reducingthedirectbenefitsofgrowth,whileimport-biasedgrowthleadstoanimprovementofourtermsoftrade.Relativeworlddemandforgoodsmayshiftbecauseof:ChangesintastesChangesintechnologyInternationaltransfersofincomeTariffsandExportSubsidiesTheInternationalDistributionofIncomeIfHome(alargecountry)imposesatariff,itswelfareincreasesaslongasthetariffisnottoolarge,whileForeign’swelfaredecreases.關稅使貿易條件改善IfHomeoffersanexportsubsidy,itswelfaredeteriorates,whileForeign’swelfareincreases.出口補貼使貿易條件惡化Metzlerparadox關稅和出口補貼會對一個國家的國內價格產生相反影響的可能性標準貿易模型提供了一個分析一系列國際問題的框架，認為傳統(tǒng)貿易模型是該模型的特例。一國的貿易條件是由國際相對供應曲線和相對需求曲線的交點決定的。經濟增長通常是偏向型的。出口〔進口〕偏向型增長會惡化〔改善〕貿易條件。改變世界相對供應曲線國際收入轉移如果改變國際相對需求就會影響一國的貿易條件。進口關稅和出口補貼會同時影響相對供應和相對需求，會對國內收入分配產生嚴重影響。出口補貼的貿易條件效應會損害出口國而使其他國家受益，而進口關稅的效應那么相反?！碴P稅收益、補貼受損〕Discussingtopic:themoreandmoreexpensiveofimportofironoreinChina?Twokindsofbehaviorariseinthegeneraloligopolysettingthatareexcludedbyassumptionfromthemonopolisticcompetitionmodel:Collusivebehavior:勾結行為CanraisetheprofitsofallfirmsattheexpenseofconsumersMaybemanagedthroughexplicitagreementsorthroughtacitcoordinationstrategiesStrategicbehavior:戰(zhàn)略行為IsadoptedbyfirmstoaffectthebehaviorofcompetitorsinadesirablewayDeterspotentialrivalsfromenteringanindustryThemonopolisticcompetitionmodelcanbeusedtoshowhowtradeleadsto:AloweraveragepriceduetoscaleeconomiesTheavailabilityofagreatervarietyofgoodsduetoproductdifferentiationImportsandexportswithineachindustry(intra-industrytrade)Maindifferencesbetweeninterindustryandintraindustrytrade:Interindustrytradereflectscomparativeadvantage,whereasintraindustrytradedoesnot.Thepatternofintraindustrytradeitselfisunpredictable,whereasthatofinterindustrytradeisdeterminedbyunderlyingdifferencesbetweencountries.Therelativeimportanceofintraindustryandinterindustrytradedependsonhowsimilarcountriesare.Dumpingcanoccuronlyiftwoconditionsaremet:ImperfectlycompetitiveindustrySegmentedmarketsReciprocalDumpingAsituationinwhichdumpingleadstotwo-waytradeinthesameproductItincreasesthevolumeoftradeingoodsthatarenotquiteidentical.Itsnetwelfareeffectisambiguous:Itwastesresourcesintransportation.Itcreatessomecompetition.Therearethreemainreasonswhyaclusteroffirmsmaybemoreefficientthananindividualfirminisolation(Marshel):SpecializedsuppliersLabormarketpoolingKnowledgespilloversLaborMarketPoolingAclusteroffirmscancreateapooledmarketforworkerswithhighlyspecializedskills.Itisanadvantagefor:ProducersTheyarelesslikelytosufferfromlaborshortages.WorkersTheyarelesslikelytobecomeunemployed.Thespecializedknowledgethatiscrucialtosuccessininnovativeindustriescomesfrom:ResearchanddevelopmenteffortsReverseengineeringInformalexchangeofinformationandideas規(guī)模經濟、不完全競爭和國際貿易Economiesofscale:internalorexternal.TradeinthepresenceofeconomiesofscaleIntra-industrytradebenefitsconsumerstrademaybedividedintotwokindsDumpingcanoccuriftwoconditionsaremetExternaleconomiesgiveanimportantroletohistoryandaccidentThereisarichdevelopmentoninternationaltheory.Discussingtopic:Abig-airplanecompanyhasbeenbuiltupinShanghai,March,2023.Explaintheimplicationsintermsofdifferenttradetheories?Acountrymaywanttomaximizenationalincome,possiblyattheexpenseofothercountries’incomes.Thiscanbeaccomplishedby:?alteringthetermsoftradeinyourfavor(largecountry),?protecting“infant〞industries,?encouraginglearning-by-doing,and?earningpureprofitsthrough“strategic〞tradepolicy.Moderngovernmentsusuallyprefertoprotectdomesticindustriesthroughavarietyofnontariffbarriers,suchas:ImportquotasLimitthequantityofimportsExportrestraintsLimitthequantityofexportsPropertiesoftheimportdemandcurve:Itintersectstheverticalaxisattheclosedeconomypriceoftheimportingcountry.Itisdownwardsloping.Itisflatterthanthedomesticdemandcurveintheimportingcountry.Propertiesoftheexportsupplycurve:Itintersectstheverticalaxisattheclosedeconomypriceoftheexportingcountry.Itisupwardsloping.Itisflatterthatthedomesticsupplycurveintheexportingcountry.Theanalyticalframeworkwillbebasedoneitherofthefollowing:TwolargecountriestradingwitheachotherAsmallcountrytradingwiththerestoftheworldAtariffraisesthepriceofagoodintheimportingcountryandlowersitintheexportingcountry.Asaresultofthesepricechanges:ConsumersloseintheimportingcountryandgainintheexportingcountryProducersgainintheimportingcountryandloseintheexportingcountryGovernmentimposingthetariffgainsrevenueOtherTradePolicyInstrumentsExportcreditsubsidiesAformofasubsidizedloantothebuyerofexports.Theyhavethesameeffectasregularexportsubsidies.NationalprocurementPurchasesbythegovernment(orpublicfirms)canbedirectedtowardsdomesticgoods,eveniftheyaremoreexpensivethanimports.Red-tapebarriersSometimesgovernmentsplacesubstantialbarriersbasedonhealth,safetyandcustomsproceduresOthergreenbarriers:environmentprotection,lowercarbonrequirements;Domesticcodeprincipal:assection301codeinUSA總結：argumentsforprotectionTariffandtradeprotectionThecostsandbenefitsofatariffAnexportsubsidycausesefficiencylossesimportquotasandvoluntaryexportrestraintscomparingontariffandquota:AMonopolistProtectedothertradepolicyinstrumentsDiscussingtopic:ShouldacountryasUSAlevies301coreontherestoftheworld?進口替代是指開展中國家通過限制工業(yè)品進口，促進本國制造業(yè)生產的方式來加速其開展。能夠導致二元經濟。Mostdevelopingcountriesarecharacterizedbyeconomicdualism.二元經濟Ahigh-wage,capital-intensiveindustrialsectorcoexistswithalow-wagetraditionalsector.Dualismisassociatedwithtradepolicyfortworeasons:Dualismisprobablyasignofmarketsworkingpoorly(marketfailurecasefordeviatingfromfreetrade).Thecreationofthedualeconomy(aneconomythatischaracterizedbyeconomicdualism)hasbeenhelpedbyimport-substitutionpolicies.TheHarris-TodaromodelItlinksrural-urbanmigrationandunemploymentthatunderminesthecaseforfavoringmanufacturingemployment,eventhoughmanufacturingdoesofferhigherwages.Countrieswithhighlydualisticeconomiesalsoseemtohaveagreatdealofurbanunemployment.Anincreaseinthenumberofmanufacturingjobswillleadtoarural-urbanmigrationsolargethaturbanunemploymentactuallyrises.Ithelpsthewagedifferentialsargumenttobeindisfavorwitheconomists.總結:TradepolicyandincomeTradepolicyindevelopedincountriesGlobalizationandlowwagelaborTradepolicyinless-developedcountriesimport-substitutingindustrialization.Mostdevelopingcountries:economicdualismexportsofmanufactured:TheHPAEs1、Explainingtheeffectofarural-urbanmigrationonemploymentinChina?2、MiracleofGrowthinChina?FDItheoriesDirectforeigninvestmentreferstointernationalcapitalflowsinwhichafirminonecountrycreatesorexpandsasubsidiaryinanotherInvolvesnotonlyatransferofresourcesbutalsotheacquisitionofcontrolThesubsidiarydoesnotsimplyhaveafinancialobligationtotheparentcompany;itispartofthesameorganizationalstructure.Whyisdirectforeigninvestmentratherthansomeotherwayoftransferringfundschosen?Toallowtheformationofmultinationalorganization(extensionofcontrol)Whydofirmsseektoextendcontrol?Theanswerissummarizedunderthetheoryofmultinationalenterprise.總結：Discussingtopic:PracticesofInvestingabroadofChineseFirms?Until2023,12thousandsofdomesticfirmsgoaboardand13thousandsofsubsidieshasbeenbuiltupin177countries.therearemorethan1000bUSDofassetsand245.75busdofcapitals.GNPiscalculatedbyaddingupthemarketvalueofallexpendituresonfinaloutput:ConsumptionTheamountconsumedbyprivatedomesticresidentsInvestmentTheamountputasidebyprivatefirmstobuildnewplantandequipmentforfutureproductionGovernmentpurchasesTheamountusedbythegovernmentCurrentaccountbalanceTheamountofnetexportsofgoodsandservicestoforeignersCaseStudy:IstheUnitedStatestheWorld’sBiggestDebtor?Attheendof1999,theUnitedStateshadanegativenetforeignwealthpositionfargreaterthanthatofanyothersinglecountry.TheUnitedStatesistheworld’sbiggestdebtor.However,theUnitedStateshastheworld’slargestGNP.Acountry’sGNPisequaltotheincomereceivedbyitsfactorsofproduction.Inaclosedeconomy,GNPmustbeconsumed,invested,orpurchasedbythegovernmentAlltransactionsbetweenacountryandtherestoftheworldarerecordedThecurrentaccountequalsthecountry’snetlendingtoforeignersAnycurrentaccountdeficitmustbematchedbyanequalsurplusintheothersInternationalassettransactionscarriedoutbycentralbanksareincludedinthefinancialaccountUnitedStates,theWorld’sBiggestDebtor/China,theworld’sbiggestCreditorCaseStudy:advantagesanddisadvantagesfortheWorld’sBiggestCreditoranddebtor?R€+(Ee$/€-E$/€)/E$/€=R$Exchangeratesplayaroleinspendingdecisionsbecausetheyenableustotranslatedifferentcountries’pricesintocomparableterms.Adepreciation(appreciation)ofacountry’scurrencyagainstforeigncurrenciesmakesitsexportscheaper(moreexpensive)anditsimportsmoreexpensive(cheaper).Exchangeratesaredeterminedintheforeignexchangemarket.Theexchangerateismostappropriatelythoughtofasbeinganassetpriceitself.Thereturnsondepositstradedintheforeignexchangemarketdependoninterestratesandexpectedexchangeratechanges.Equilibriumintheforeignexchangemarketrequiresinterestparity.Ariseindollar(euro)interestratescausesthedollartoappreciate(depreciate)againsttheeuro.Today’sexchangerateisalteredbychangesinitsexpectedfuturelevel.Discussingtopic:InOctober1979,theU.Scentralbankannounceditwouldplayalessactiveruleinlimitingfluctuationsindollarinterestrate.Afterthisnewpolicywas