曼哈頓政策研究所-不能壓制一座偉大的城市：2020年人口普查告訴我們的關(guān)于紐約的信息（英）-2021.11-23正式版

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AboutUS

November2021

Can’tKeepaGreatCity

Down:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

EricKober

ManHattaninstitute

SeniorFellow

ExecutiveSummary

Resultsfromthe2020censusconfirmedthatNewYorkCity’spopulationgrewsignificantlyinthedecadeupto2020,by629,000.Spurredbyalongeconomicboom,thecity’spopulationgrowthhappenedvianaturalincrease,theexcessofbirthsoverdeaths.ContrarytotheCensusBureau’spre-censuspopulationestimates,whichhadprojectedsignificantpopulationdropsattheendofthedecadeduetogrowingnetout-migration,aboutthesamenumberofpeoplemigratedtothecity,eitherdomesticallyorinternationally,asleftduringthedecade.

ThecensusalsorevealedunexpectedlylargehousinggainsforNYCduring2010–20,exceedingtheamountofnetnewconstruction—completionsminusdemolitions—reportedbythecitybetween2010and2020.Thedifferenceinthetwosetsofnumbersmayhaveresultedfrombet-tercensus-taking,methodologicaldifferencesincountinghousingcompletions,orconstruc-tionwithoutpermits.However,eventhecensus-reportedhousinggrowthwasnotsufficienttoalleviatethecity’schronichousingshortagebecausethepopulationcontinuestogrow.

Withinthecity,populationgrowthwasuneven;asmallnumberofthecity’s59communitydis-trictshadlargegainswhilemanyotherdistrictsgrewlittle.Thetop-growingdistrictscorrelatedinmanycaseswithlarge-scalerezoningscarriedoutunderMayorsRudolphGiulianiandMichaelBloomberg.Manyothercommunitydistrictscouldattractprivatehousinginvestment,basedonaverageincomesandmarketconditions,butarerestrictivelyzonedorhaveothercurbsonnewhousingconstructionsuchashistoricdistricts.Thenextmayorneedstoimplementzon-ingchangesthatdistributetheburdenofmeetingthecity’shousingdemandmoreequitably.

TheManhattan

NorthernNewJerseymunicipalitiesdidthecityaconsiderablefavorbyacceptingadispropor-

tionateshareoftheregion’spopulationandhousinggrowth.The2020censusidentifiestheemer-

Instituteisathink

genceofadefactogrowing“sixthborough”centeredonHudsonCounty,NewJersey,butalso

tankwhosemission

includingthemoredenselyurbanizedportionsofadjoiningcounties.Tosolidifyregionalpros-

istodevelopand

perity,NewYorkandNewJerseyofficialsneedtomakefurtherprogressinupgradingthetransit

disseminatenew

infrastructureservingthisaggregationofcommunitiesandconnectingthemwithManhattan.

ideasthatfoster

greatereconomic

choiceandindividual

responsibility.

1

Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

Incontrast,NewYorksuburbs,particularlyonLongIsland,underperformedthecity,letalonetheirNewJerseycounterparts,inaccommodatingregionalgrowth.ThelargerWestchestercit-iesarepromisingexceptionstothistrend.NewYorkStateneedstoconsideradoptingsomeoftheland-usereformsthatotherstateshaveusedtoovercomeresistancetonewhousinginaffluentsuburbs.

NewYorkCity,primarily,andafewdownstatesuburbancountiesaccountedfornearlyallthestate’spopulationgainsinthe2020census.UpstateNewYorkasawholelostpopulation,par-ticularlyinruralareas,whichispartofanationaltrend.However,inareversalofearliertrends,thelargerupstatecities,particularlyBuffalo,postedpopulationgains.

Introduction

ConfoundingtheU.S.CensusBureau’sownestimates,NewYorkCityrecordedapopulation

gainof629,057between2010and2020.Thecity’s7.7%populationincrease,to8,804,190,isthe

second-largestnumericallyinthepastninedecades,surpassedonlyby1990–2000,whenthe

enumeratedpopulationincreasedby686,000.

TheCensusBureauhadpreviouslyissuedanestimateofNewYorkCity’spopulationforJuly

2020of8,253,213,onlya1%increasefrom2010.1Thebureau’sestimateshadthecity’spopula-

tionpeakingat8.469millionin2016andtrailingoffinsubsequentyears.

Howcouldtheseestimatesbesofaroff?TheCensusBureau’spopulationestimatesarebuiltby

summingthecomponentsofpopulationchange.Thesearethenaturalincrease(birthsminus

deaths),whicharecompiledfromadministrativerecords;andnetmigration,bothinternational

anddomestic.TheCensusBureaualsousesadministrativerecordstoestimatemigration,but

theserecordsprovidealessaccuratepicturethanthecity’svitalrecordsdoofbirthsanddeaths.

NewYorkCity’snaturalincreasefromthelastcensusdateofApril1,2010,toJuly1,2020,was

611,532.FortheCensusBureau’s2020populationestimatetobeaccurate,netmigrationwould

havehadtobesharplynegative—anetoutflowof532,477.Infact,itturnsouttohavebeen

slightlypositive,atleastuptothecensusdateofApril1,2020.

ThenotionthatNewYorkCitywasrapidlylosingpopulationcausedconsiderablehand-wring-

inginthelatterpartofthe2010–20decade.ADecember2020BloombergWealtharticle,for

Contacts

example,declared:“NewYorkCity...waslosing376residentsperdaytodomesticmigrationin

Torequestan

2019—anincreaseofmorethan100perdayfromthepreviousyear—beforeitbecametheepi-

centerofthecountry’svirusoutbreakinMarchthisyear,accordingtotheU.S.CensusBureau’s

informationpacket

latestsurveyofpopulationshifts.”2

aboutMI,orifyou

havequestionsabout

Thatthiswasnot,infact,happeningisunalloyedgoodnewsforNewYorkersand,indeed,for

howtosupportus,

thenation,whichbenefitsfromthecity’seconomicoutputandculturalinnovation.NewYork

contactsupport@

Cityhasmanychallenges,butpopulationdeclineisnotoneofthem.

manhattan-

.

ArecentcommentarybyBloombergOpinioncolumnistNoahSmithgetsatthefundamen-

52VanderbiltAve.

talreasonsforthis:

NewYork,NY10017

[P]eoplemovetoNewYorkbecausethat’swherethejobsare,andjobsmovetoNew

(212)599-7000

Yorkbecausethat’swheretheskilledworkersare.ForNewYorktogointoasus-

info@manhattan-

taineddeclinewouldtakeamassivecatastrophe—somethingbigenoughtoremove

thenucleusofcompaniesandskilledworkerscompletely.Covidsimplywasn’tthat.3

2

Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

The2020censusalsorecordedarecord-highpopulationintheBronx,of1,472,654.Theboroughhasmorethanmadeupforthelossesthatoccurredsubsequenttothepreviouspeakin1970.Therecoveryoftheborough,soimplausibletothosewhorememberwhenPresidentJimmyCartervisitedthedesolateCharlotteStreetneighborhoodoftheSouthBronxin1977,4wastheworkofinnumerableelectedofficials,communityactivists,businessowners,landlords,andordinaryresidentswhoworkedincrementallytoimprovecommunities.

ThispaperreviewskeytakeawaysfromtheNewYorkCitydatareleasedbytheCensusBureauinAugust2021.5Thepaperthenlooksatwhatthecensustellsusaboutthecity’srelationshiptoitsregion6andtotheStateofNewYork.Finally,itlooksattheimplicationsforsomeofthepolicyissuesfacedbythenextmayorofNewYorkCityandthegovernorofNewYorkState,legislators,andpublicofficials.

NewYorkCityin2020

Brooklynhadthelargestpopulationofanyboroughin2020(2,736,074)andthelargestpopula-tiongainfrom2010(231,374)(Figure1).Brooklyn,whichalsosufferedlargepopulationlossesafter1970anddramaticallyrecovered,isjustshortofitsrecordpopulationof2,738,175in1950.Queensisthesecond-most-populousborough(2,405,464)in2020,andhadthesecond-largestgainfrom2010(174,742).ForQueens,the2020censusonceagainrepresentsarecordpopula-tion,asdidthecensusesin2000and2010.

Manhattanwasthethird-largestboroughin2020,withapopulationof1,694,251.Manhattangained108,378residentsbetween2010and2020,arateofgrowthof6.8%,slightlybelowthecitywideaverage.Manhattan’spopulationpeakedin1910at2,331,542,atimeinwhichitwasconsideredintolerablycrowded.AnimportantobjectiveinconsolidatingNewYorkCity’sfiveboroughsandconstructingitssubwayswastodisperseManhattan’spopulation.However,theboroughremainsbelowits1960populationof1,698,281.

StatenIslandalsoachievedarecordpopulationof495,747,growingby27,017since2010.Heavilyprotectedbyrestrictivezoning,StatenIslandgrewfarlessthanadjoiningNewJerseycounties.

Figure1

NewYorkCityPopulationandHousing-UnitChangebyBorough

Source:2010,2020U.S.Census;NYCDept.ofCityPlanning

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

NewYorkCityisdividedadministrativelyinto59communitydistricts(CDs;seemapinAppen-dix).Thesedistrictsvariedwidelyintermsofpopulationgain(Figure2).Threecommunitydistricts(Brooklyn1and2andQueens12)gainedmorethan30,000,andfour(Brooklyn3,Manhattan4,andQueens2and7)gainedmorethan20,000.Attheotherendofthespectrum,ManhattanCommunityDistrict9gainedonly265people,andinthesameborough,Districts3and12lostpopulation(dropsof136and9,814,respectively).InadditiontoManhattan9,eightcommunitydistrictshadpopulationgainsunder5,000between2010and2020:Bronx2,4,and5;Brooklyn9,13,and14;Manhattan2;andStatenIsland3.

Figure2

NewYorkCityPopulationandHousing-UnitChangebyCommunityDistrict

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

Source:2010,2020U.S.Census;NYCDept.ofCityPlanning

Accordingtothe2020census,NewYorkCitygained247,573housingunitsbetween2010and2020,againof7.3%(Figure1).Whilethisisslightlylessthantherateofincreaseinpopulation,becausethenumberofvacantunitsdecreasedwhile“groupquarters”7populationincreased,theaveragenumberofpersonsperhousehold8decreasedslightly,from2.57to2.55(“groupquar-ters”accommodationsarenotcountedashousingunitsforcensuspurposes).

Thechangeinhousingunitsoverthedecadereportedbythe2020censussignificantlyexceedsthenumberofnewunits,netofdemolitions,documentedbythecity’sDepartmentofCityPlanning(DCP)(205,994)inaFebruary2021brief.9Someofthedisparitymaycomefromtheslightlydifferenttimeframes(thedepartment’sfiguresarefromJanuary2010toJune2020,whiletheCensusBureau’sarefromApril1,2010,toApril1,2020).Additionally,thecollabora-tiveeffortbetweenthecityandtheCensusBureautoimprovetheaddresslistformailingoutthe2020censusformsmayhaveresultedintheinclusionofsomeunitsthatexisted,butthatweremissed,in2010.Finally,thecensusmayhaveuncoveredsomeunitsthatwereconstructedduringthedecadewithoutproperpermits,typicallythroughthesubdivisionofexistingsmallhomesintotwoormoreunits.

Aswithpopulation,Brooklynhadthelargestincreaseinhousingunits:77,361.Manhattanwassecond(66,836),followedbyQueens(61,206),theBronx(35,134),andStatenIsland(7,036).

Thenumberofvacantunits10fellinfourofthefiveboroughs(Figure3).NewYorkCityhadchallengedtheresultsofthe2010census,unsuccessfully,onthegroundsthatdisproportionateandunexplainableincreasesinthecountofvacantunitshadoccurredintractsenumeratedbytwolocalcensusoffices—oneinsouthernBrooklynandtheotherinnorthernQueens.Thecityarguedthatabreakdownincensusprocedureshadresultedinafailuretoidentifyoccupant

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

households,resultinginanundercountofpopulation.11ThelargedropsinvacantunitsinBrooklynandQueens(15,587and5,887,respectively)mayreflectbettercensus-takingin2020.Bycontrast,Manhattanhadalargeincrease,12,900,invacantunits.Theincreaseinvacanciesisconcentratedinfivecommunitydistricts:2,3,5,6,and7,eachofwhichaddedmorethan2,000.Thismayreflectmorehousingunitsthatarenonprimaryresidencesortransientunits.

Figure3

VacantHousingUnitsbyNYCBorough

Source:2010,2020U.S.Census;NYCDept.ofCityPlanning

Thenumberofadditionalhousingunitsalsovariedwidelybycommunitydistrict,asshowninFigure2.FourCDshadanincreaseofmorethan10,000:Brooklyn1(17,869),Brooklyn2(16,245),Manhattan4(14,759),andQueens2(13,241).ThesefourCDshadmuchofthelargesthousing-unitchangeintheDCPbrieffromFebruary2021aswell.Thecensusshowssevenaddi-tionalCDsthataddedmorethan7,000additionalhousingunits:Brooklyn3and4;Manhattan1and6;andQueens1,7,and12.Someofthese(Brooklyn3and4;Manhattan1;andQueens1)alsorankedhighintheDCPbrief.Others(Manhattan6andQueens7and12)werebelievedtohavehadonlymoderatehousinggrowth,intherangeof4,000newunits,accordingtoDCP.

ThreeBrooklyncommunitydistrictslosthousingunits,perhapsasaconsequenceofreversedsubdivisions,inwhichhomesthatpreviouslyhadarentalunitarereconvertedtosingle-family:10(–1,982),11(–1,346),and15(–3,273).Thirteencommunitydistrictsgainedfewerthan2,000units:Bronx2,8,and11;Brooklyn12,13,14,and18;Manhattan9and12;Queens6,10,and11;andStatenIsland2.Anadditional10districtsgained2,000–3,000units.

The2020censusredistrictingfileincludesfull-countraceandHispanicorigindataforthecity’spopulation.Whenanalyzingsuchdata,itisimportanttokeepinmindthatthesecharacteris-ticsareself-described;sincemanypeoplehaveancestryfrommorethanoneraceorHispanicorigincategory,thesamepersonmayresponddifferentlyfromonecensustoanother.

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

Thatnoted,in2020NewYorkCityrecordedalargeincreaseinitsHispanicandAsiannon-Hispanicpopulations(154,274and345,383,respectively;seeFigure4).Thewhitenon-Hispanicpopulationdecreasedslightly,by3,048,whiletherewasalargerdecreaseintheblacknon-Hispanicpopulationof84,404.Anyconclusionsthatonemaydrawfromthesedataarecomplicatedbytheconcurrentincreasesin“someotherrace,non-Hispanic”of65,569and“non-Hispanicoftwoormoreraces”of151,283.

Figure4

ChangeinRaceandHispanicOriginPopulation

2010and2020

Source:2010,2020U.S.Census;NYCDept.ofCityPlanning

Thelargestdropintheblacknon-Hispanicpopulation(69,370)occurredinBrooklyn,wherethewhitenon-Hispanicpopulationincreasedby75,121.Thismightseemastraightforwardstoryofprivate-marketreal-estatedevelopmentleadingto“gentrification”aswealthierwhitenon-His-panicnewcomersdisplacedlessaffluentblacknon-Hispanichouseholds,12butanexaminationofthecommunitydistrictdata(Appendix,Figure1)tellsamorecomplicatedstory.

ThefiveBrooklyncommunitydistrictswiththelargestdropsinblacknon-Hispanicpopu-lationwere3,8,9,14,and17.InDistrict3,thethird-fastest-growing,theblacknon-Hispanicpopulationfellby22,104,whilethewhitenon-Hispanicpopulationroseby29,958.InDistrict8—slower-growingintermsofpopulationbutshowingnearlyaslargeanincreaseinhousingunitsasCD3—theblacknon-Hispanicpopulationfellby13,406whilethewhitepopulationincreasedby15,021.Inthesecommunitydistricts,racialchangeseemstobeconcurrentwithsurgingreal-estatedevelopment.

Butinothercommunitydistrictswithlargeblacknon-Hispanicpopulationdrops,thereisnorelationshiptohousinggrowth.InDistrict9,housingunitsincreasedbyfewerthan3,000,buttheblacknon-Hispanicpopulationdecreasedby14,151,whilethewhitenon-Hispanicpopulationincreasedby9,707.InDistrict14,alsowithlittlehousinggrowth,theblacknon-Hispanicpop-ulationdecreasedby10,503,whilethewhitenon-Hispanicpopulationgrewbyjustover2,000;thelargest-growingraceandethnicgroupswereAsiannon-Hispanicsandnon-Hispanicsof

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

twoormoreraces.District17,anotherlow-housing-growtharea,experiencedadropof9,954inblacknon-Hispanics.Itslargestgrowthgroupwasnon-Hispanicsoftwoormoreraces,whichincreasedby8,192.

Fast-growingcommunitydistrictsinBrooklynandotherboroughs,includingBrooklyn1,Manhattan4,andQueens2,hadsmallincreasesintheblacknon-Hispanicpopulation.InQueens12,whichalsogrewsignificantly,therewasadropof9,331intheblacknon-Hispanicpopula-tion.Atthesametime,whitenon-Hispanicshardlyincreased,buttherewasalargeincrease,of18,779,amongAsiannon-Hispanics.

Inshort,thewayinwhichtheracialcompositionofthecitychangedwasnotuniform,butvar-iedacrossneighborhoods.Thecommongentrificationnarrative—inwhichmarketreal-estatedevelopmentdrivesuppricestothedetrimentofminorities,especiallyblacks—isplausibleonlyinsomecommunitydistricts.Inotherpartsofthecity,rapidgrowthinthehousingstockledtopopulationincreasesforallracialandethnicgroups.Andinanothergroupofcommunities,thereweresharpchangesinracialandethniccompositionbutlittlegrowthinthehousingstock.

In2020,NewYorkCitywas30.9%whitenon-Hispanic.However,15communitydistrictsweremorethan50%whitenon-Hispanic:Brooklyn1,6,10,12,13,and15;Manhattan1,2,and4–8;andStatenIsland2and3.Inmanyofthesedistricts,thewhitenon-Hispanicpopulationdeclined,whiletheshareofothergroupsincreased.Forexample,StatenIslandCD3,withthehighestwhitenon-Hispanicpopulationshare,at78.4%,nonethelessexperiencedareductionof7,669initswhitenon-HispanicpopulationwhilegainingHispanics,Asiannon-Hispanics,andaverysmallnumberofblacknon-Hispanics.

TheCityintheRegion

TheNewYork,Newark,JerseyCity,NY–NJ–PAMetropolitanStatisticalArea(MSA)13hadapopulationof20,140,470in2020,anincreaseof1,243,361over2010.NewYorkCitythushadabouthalfthepopulationincreaseintheMSAbutonly43.7%oftotal2020population.

OftheNewYorkcountiesintheMSA,onlyRocklandhadfasterpopulationgrowththanthecity:8.5%(Figure5).14NassauandSuffolkgrewjust4.2%and2.2%,respectively,andhadevenlowerhousing-unitgrowth.Westchestergrewsomewhatmore—5.8%—inpopulationand4.9%inhousing.PutnamCounty’spopulationfellby2%.

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

Figure5

NewYork-Newark-JerseyCity,NY-NJ-PAMetropolitanStatisticalAreaChangesinPopulationandHousingUnitsbyCounty,2010–20

Source:2010,2020U.S.Census

Westchester’sgrowthwasledbyitscities(Appendix,Figure2).MountVernon’spopulationgrewby9.8%andthatofYonkersby8%.WhitePlainsandNewRochellegrewby4.8%and3.5%,respectively.

SomeNewJerseycountiescontributedmuchmoretoregionalgrowth.HudsonCountyhadapopulationincreaseof90,588,or14.3%;itshousingstockgrewby15.7%.Essexgrewby79,759,or10.2%,andOceanby60,662,or10.5%.OtherNewJerseycountiesintheMSA,andPikeinPennsylvania,grewmoreslowlythandidthecity.SussexCountyinNewJerseylostpopulation.

InHudsonCounty,thecitieswiththehighestgrowthwereJerseyCity(44,852,or18.1%)andHoboken(10,414,or20.8%).Bayonnegrewby8,662,or13.7%.SomesmallerHudsonCountymunicipalitieshadevenhigherpercentagegrowth:Harrison(42.8%),Weehawken(37%),andSecaucus(36.4%).ContinuingthestronggrowthalongthewestshoreoftheHudsonRiveroppositeManhattan,EdgewaterinBergenCountygrewby2,823,or24.5%,andFortLeeby4,846,or13.7%.

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

InEssexCounty,Newarkgrewby34,409,or12.4%.Newarkhadasmallpopulationgainbetween2000and2010,afterasteepfallfromitspeakof442,337in1930.Itsreturntosubstantialgrowth,alongwithotherNewJerseycities,isanotablechangefromthestate’sdecades-longsuburban-ization.AdjoiningNewark,Irvingtongrewby7,250,or13.4%,whileEastOrangegrewby5,342,or8.3%.OtherlargenorthernNewJerseycitieswithsignificantpopulationgainsincludePat-ersoninPassaicCounty,whichgrewby13,533,or9.3%,andElizabethinUnionCounty,whichgained12,329,or9.9%.

Severallong-strugglingcitiesontheperipheryoftheNewYorkmetropolitanareaalsogainedpopulation.TheseincludeTrenton,NewJersey,whichgrew7%,andBridgeportandNewHaveninConnecticut,whichhadsmallergains.

TheCityintheState

NewYorkCityaloneaccountsfor76.4%ofNewYorkState’spopulationgrowthof823,147between2010and2020.Addingfivedownstatecountiesthatgrew—Nassau,Suffolk,Westches-ter,Rockland,andOrange—morethanaccountsforthestate’spopulationgrowth.Thestate’sother52countiescollectivelylost5,205people.Thirteenofthe52nonethelessweremodestgain-ers,ledbyErie,whichincreasedby35,196.Additionally,MonroeandSaratogaincreasedpop-ulationbymorethan15,000.

ThebiggestloseramongNewYorkStatecountieswasChautauqua(–7,248).SteubenandMad-isonCountieseachlostmorethan5,000people.

Mostupstatecitiesshowedsmallpopulationgains(Figure6).Buffalo(inErieCounty)wasthebiggestgainer,adding17,039,anincreaseof6.5%,to278,349.Buffalohadpreviouslylostpopulationineverycensussinceitspeakof580,132in1950.UticaandBinghamtonareexam-plesofcitiesthatmanagedpopulationgainsevenastheircounties(OneidaandBroome)lostpopulation.Afewsmallercitiesalsohadpopulationlosses,includingNiagaraFalls,Elmira,andPoughkeepsie.

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

Figure6

SelectedUpstateNewYorkCitiesPopulationChanges,2010–20

Source:2010,2020U.S.Census

Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYorkCity’sFutureandtheIssuesThattheCityandStateNeedtoAddress

Wecandrawanumberofimportantconclusionsfromthis2020censusrelease:

ThenaturaltendencyofNewYorkCityistogrowsubstantiallyinpopulationeverydecade.

NewYorkCitygrowsbynaturalincrease,theexcessofbirthsoverdeaths.Thecitycanonlyfailtogrow,overall,ifnetmigrationisnegativeenoughtooffsetnaturalincrease.Thisalmostneverhappens;itrequireseconomicfailure.SinceNewYorkCitymayorsandcouncilmembers,gover-norsandstatelegislators,andotherpoliticalactorshaveastrongstakeinNewYorkCity’seco-nomicsuccessandthetaxrevenuesthatsuchsuccessgenerates,theywilltrytoavoidpoliciesthatleadtosuchfailure.Thisisnottosaythattheirpolicieswillbeoptimalbutonlythattheywillmuddlethroughenoughtoachieveeconomic,andthuspopulation,growth.

ThispointisillustratedbyagraphicfromtheNYCDepartmentofCityPlanning’sbriefingbook-letonthe2020census(Figure7).ThegraphicillustratesthehistoricalprogressionofNewYorkCity’spopulationfrom1900to2020.Therearetwostrongupwardmovements,from1900to

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

1950andfrom1980tothepresent.Inbetweenistheperiodofstagnationandthendeclinefrom1950to1980,aneraassociatedwithsuburbanization,destructiveurbanpoliciessuchashigh-way-buildingandurbanrenewalthatdisplacedlargepopulations,andthe1970sfinancialcrisis.

Figure7

PopulationofNewYorkCity,1990–2020(millions)

Source:NYCDept.ofCityPlanning,“2020CensusResultsforNewYorkCity:

KeyPopulationandHousingCharacteristics,”August2021,p.7.

Itisalwayspossiblethatpublicofficialswillresorttounwisepolicies,butassumingbadgover-nancecan’tbethefoundationforsoundplanning.Ifthecityandstatedojustenoughtoachieveeconomicprosperityandgrowingrevenues,NewYorkCitywilladdjobsanddrawinwork-ersfromelsewhereintheU.S.andimmigrantsfromabroad.Peoplewillcontinuetomoveoutofthecity,butiftheinflowsandoutflowsmerelyoffseteachother,astheydidin2010–20,thecity’spopulationwillgrowsubstantially.

TheseprincipleswereatthecoreofthepopulationforecastsproducedbytheDepartmentofCityPlanningin2006,whenitattemptedtoprojectthecity’spopulationoutto2030.15Thedepartmentovershotinitsprojectionfor2010,at8.4million,but,asdiscussedabove,thecen-susnumberprobablyrepresentedanundercount.By2020,theDCPprojectionwasbelowthecensus,at8.7million,butstillverymuchontargetastothedirectionandmagnitudeofpopu-lationchange.For2030,DCPprojectedapopulationof9.1million.

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Can’tKeepaGreatCityDown:Whatthe2020CensusTellsUsAboutNewYork

In2013,DCPpublishedrevisedprojectionsto2040,butthesenowseemundulyconservative,giventhatthecityhasalreadynearlyachievedtheprojected2030populationin2020.16DCP’snewprojectionmadenetmigrationmorenegative;infact,netmigrationbecamemorepositivein2010–20,causingpopulationtogrowmuchfasterthanDCPhadprojected.

NewYorkCityneedstoaddhousingunitsinproportiontopopulationgrowth,simplytoaccommodatethedemandcreatedbyitsgrowingpopulation.Ifitwantstoalleviatechronicshortagesandincreasetheavailabilityofvacantunitsforrent,whilecontinuingtobenefitfromastrongeconomy,itneedstoacceleratehousingproductionbeyondthelevelsofthepastdecade.

NewYorkCity’s2010–20populationincreaseof629,057includedanincreaseof595,859inthe“populationinhouseholds.”17Sincetheaveragehouseholdsizein2020was2.55,thatincrementrequired233,670additionalhousingunits.Moreover,thesmallreductioninaveragehouseholdsizeoverthedecademeantthatmorehousingunitswereneededtohouseeventhebasepopu-lationfrom2010.Thisreflectsanagingpopulationandfewerchildrenundertheageof18livingwithparents.Thedemandsfromnewhouseholds,alongwiththeshrinkingaveragehouseholdsize,morethanaccountedforthe247,572unitsaddedoverthedecade.(Areductioninvacantunits,comparedwith2010,enabledthenumberstoaddup.)NewYorkCity’shousingcrunch18continuedintoearly2020,butwasthentemporarilyalleviatedbythesharppandemic-inducedeconomicdownturn.However,withthestrongeconomicrecoveryunderway,NewYorkCityhaslargelyerasedthepost–March2020reductioninmarketrents.19Covid-19hasnotchangedthefundamentalarithmeticofNewYo