人造肉報告：走出實驗室 進(jìn)入餐桌（英）

Agriculture

PracticeCultivated

meat:

Out

ofthe

lab,i

nto

the

frying

panMaking

cultivated

meat

a

$25

billion

global

industry

by

2030presents

opportunities

within

and

beyond

today’s

food

industry.by

Tom

Brennan,

Joshua

Katz,

Yossi

Quint,

and

Boyd

Spencer?

Eat

JustJune

2021Cultivated

meat,

a

product

that

a

handful

ofrestaurant

patrons

bit

into

for

the

first

time

inDecember,

could

change

the

world’s

menus

inastonishing

ways.

It

could

mean

that

one

dayconsumers

will

pay

no

more

for

Wagyu

beef

andbluefin

tuna

than

for

chicken

nuggets

and

burgers.It

could

mean

a

small

island

could

serve

up

beefyplatters

at

the

same

cost

and

efficiency

as

acontinent

with

wide,

grassy

plains.

By

2030,cultivated

meat

could

provide

as

much

as

a

half

of1

percent—billions

of

pounds—of

the

world’s

meatsupply,

with

implications

for

multiple

sectors.If

these

sound

like

sci-fi

fantasies,

consider

that

justa

decade

ago,

cultivated

meat

was

little

more

thanthe

futuristic

dream

of

a

handful

of

academicscientists.

Instead

of

relying

on

animal

husbandry

toprovide

meat,

or

approximating

the

characteristicsof

meat

with

plants,

they

endeavored

to

createmeat

by

taking

small

samples

of

animal

cells

andgrowing

them

in

a

controlled

environment.

Throughmanipulation

of

cell

density

and

shaping

techniques,the

resulting

product

could

be

made

to

replicate

theexperience

of

eating,

say,

chicken

breast

or

groundbeef

(Exhibit

1).Exhibit

1Cultivated

meat

has

the

potentialto

replicatethe

taste,

texture,

smell,nutritional

composition,

and

appearance

of

conventional

meat.ProductionprocessforcultivatedmeatCultivatedmeatismade

bytakinga

smallsampleofanimalcellsandgrowingthem

in

a

controlledenvironment.12345Celllinesarepurchased/developedforperpetualuseCellsgrowinnutrient-richmediain

seedtrainbioreactorsCellsreachCellsareHarvestedcellsarepreparedfordistributiondesireddensityin

themainharvestedin

acentrifugationprocessbioreactorsDeveloped/purchasedanimalcelllinesarepreservedin

cellbanks;whenproducinga

batch,thecellsarethawedin

smallshake?asksandmovedtoseedtrainbioreactorsAscellsgrowinvolumeandTheoptimalcelldensity

Cellspassthrough

Meatcellsarestrikesa

balancea

continuouscentrifuge,whichseparatesthemediafrompreparedforincreaseinbetweencellvolumeandbatchtime(ie,longerbatchtime,highercelldensity);whencellsreachadesireddensityin

themainbioreactors,thebioreactorsaredrainedintocentrifugesforharvestingdistributionwithdensity,theygetmovedalongtheseedtrainintoprogressivelylargerbioreactorsprocessesvaryingbasedonendproduct;cellscanbeblendedwithotheradditivestoachievethedesiredtexturebeforebeingformedandpackagedforstorageandthecellsandachievesa

lowconcentrationofmediainharvestedcellsdistributionSource:

Expert

interviews;

Good

FoodInstitutecultivatedmeat

overview2Cultivated

meat:

Out

of

the

lab,

into

the

frying

panThis

mission

seems

to

be

becoming

reality,demonstrating

the

speed

at

which

advances

in—

Cost

position.

Will

cultivated

meat

become

abargain,

relative

to

conventional

meat,energizing

demand?biological

science

are

fueling

a

wave

of

innovation.Since

developing

the

first

prototypes,

companieshave

been

able

to

reduce

production

costs

by99

percent.

In

late

2020,

at

an

upscale

club

inSingapore—the

only

country

thus

far

to

approveconsumption

of

cultivated

meat—diners

feasted

forthe

first

time

on

crispy

sesame

chicken

with

thecentral

ingredient

grown

from

animal

cells.1—

Policy

response.

How

will

countries

and

regionsaddress

the

development

of

this

new

industry?—

Supply.

Will

the

world

make

enough

cultivatedmeat

to

achieve

economies

of

scale?Regulatory

bodies

in

the

United

States

haveannounced

agreements

to

regulate

the

product,while

the

European

Union

awarded

a

multimillion-euro

grant

for

research.

The

industry,

which

atpresent

comprises

fewer

than

100

start-ups,attracted

roughly

$350

million

in

investments

in2020

and

about

$250

million

thus

far

in

2021

fromsome

of

the

largest

animal-protein

players,

includingTyson

and

Nutreco,

and

well-known

investors,including

Temasek

and

SoftBank.This

article

provides

an

overview

of

the

stepsrequired

to

create

a

global

cultivated-meat

industryand

identifies

opportunities

for

participation

forfood

and

pharmaceutical

companies;

flavor

andfragrance

players;

engineering,

procurement,

andconstruction

firms;

investors;

and

others.Will

consumers

dig

into

cultivated

meat?Eating

meat

from

animals

is

an

atavistic

part

of

thehuman

story,

demonstrated

by

the

enormity

of

theglobal

animal-protein

market

(Exhibit

2).A

lot

has

to

happen

for

cultivated

meat

to

becomea

major

industry—not

least

that

tens

of

billionsof

dollars

need

to

be

spent

to

scale

it

to

even1

percent

of

the

global

protein

market.

The

focusof

the

next

decade

will

likely

be

on

provingcommercial

viability,

with

modest

marketpenetration.

To

succeed,

the

industry

mustassuage

potential

concerns

around

a

novel

foodwhile

delivering

deliciousness

at

the

right

price.The

deep

psychological

and

cultural

ties

consumershave

to

conventional

meat

are

a

double-edgedsword.

On

the

one

hand,

the

opportunity

toparticipate

in

the

global

meat

market

is

huge.

On

theother,

consumers

know

exactly

how

their

salmonsteaks

and

chicken

tenders

should

taste

and

feel.These

subtleties

make

replicating

the

meatexperience

tricky.

Companies

like

Aleph

Farms,Matrix

Meats,

and

Redefine

Meat

are

exploring

arange

of

solutions,

from

extrusion

to

3-D

printing

tomicrocarriers

(structures

that

cells

can

attach

towithin

bioreactors

to

create

3-D

structures).The

future

pace

of

adoption

and

market

size

willdepend

on

five

key

factors:—

Consumer

acceptance.

Will

diners

dig

intocultivated

chicken

nuggets

and

burgers

and,eventually,

filet

mignon

and

salmon

steaks?Consumers

will

also

need

to

know

how

to

recognizethis

new

protein

source

and

distinguish

it

from

bothconventional

meat

and

plant-based

alternatives.That

raises

the

question

of

what

this

industry

will

becalled

(see

sidebar,

“What’s

in

a

name?”).—

Risks.

How

will

the

industry

address

concernsabout

health

and

safety,

jobs,

and

possibleeconomic

ripple

effects?1

The

Bio

Revolution:

Innovations

transforming

economies,

societies,

and

our

lives,

McKinsey

Global

Institute,

May

13,

2020,

McK.Cultivated

meat:

Out

of

the

lab,

into

the

frying

pan3Exhibit

2The

animal-proteinmarket

is

growing

1

percent

annually,with

volume

expectedto

reach

531million

tonnes

by

2030.Globalmeatmarketbyregion2017–19averageconsumption,%2017–19averageconsumption,millionsoftonnes260100806040200SeafoodOtherPorkBeefand

veal76555233Poultry5North

South

Europe

Africa

Asia

OceaniaAmerica

AmericaNorth

South

Europe

Africa

Asia

OceaniaAmerica

AmericaSource:

Euromonitor;

OECD-FAO

Agricultural

Outlook

2020-2029Cultivated

meat

has

the

potential

to

not

just

matchbut

surpass

the

taste

and

texture

of

conventionalmeat,

as

well

as

to

introduce

novel

products.

Ifconsumers

take

to

these

products,

the

market

forcultivated

meat

could

reach

$25

billion

by

2030(Exhibit

3).

Currently,

the

world

primarily

eats

themeat

of

animals

that

are

the

easiest

to

farmindustrially,

but

cultivated

meat

won’t

face

thoseconstraints.

Instead,

the

industry

could

select

celllines

from

specific

animals

with

the

best

traits,

suchas

Wagyu

beef

or

wild

salmon,

and

replicate

them

atthe

same

cost

as,

say,

beef

patties

or

tilapia.What’s

in

a

name?A

wide

variety

of

terms

have

been

used

todescribe

the

process

of

cultivating

meat

fromanimal

cells.

The

terms

most

commonly

usedby

companies

in

the

space

are

“cultivated”

and“cultured.”

Other

options

range

from

the

morescienti?c,

such

as

“cell

cultured,”

“l(fā)ab

grown,”and

“in

vitro,”

to

marketing

terms

like

“clean”and

“slaughter-free.”

The

jury

is

still

out

onwhich

term

will

become

the

most

popularwith

consumers

or

be

decided

for

the

industryby

regulators.Cultivated

meat

can

also

go

one

step

further

andselect

cell

lines

from

animals

that

are

not

widelyeaten

because

of

their

low

meat

content,

longgrowing

time,

or

lack

of

availability.

For

example,4Cultivated

meat:

Out

of

the

lab,

into

the

frying

panExhibit

3Depending

on

factors

suchas

consumer

acceptance

and

price,

the

market

forcultivated

meat

could

reach

$25billion

by

2030.Possiblecultivated-meatmarketsizeMarketsizeprojections,1$

billionMarketsizeprojections,thousandsoftonnesLow

growthMediumgrowthHigh

growth25Low

growthMediumgrowthHigh

growth2,100201,50040052140752025

2030~012025

20302025

20302025

20302025

20302025

2030●

Lowgrowth:cultivatedmeatisonlyabletoreplaceprocessedmeat(eg,burgers,sausages),limitingpenetration;salesgeographicallylimitedtoNorthAmerica,Europe,andselectAsia–Paci?ccountries●

Mediumgrowth:cultivatedmeatisabletoreplicateprocessedmeatandwholecuts;salesgeographicallylimitedtoNorthAmerica,Europe,andselectAsia–Paci?ccountries●

Highgrowth:cultivatedmeatisabletoreplicatea

widevarietyofbothprocessedmeatsandwholecuts;salesinmultiplelargemeat-consumingcountriesandregions(eg,China,US,

EU,Brazil,India)1Manufacturing

sales

price.ostrich

meat,

a

product

that

has

challenged

manyranchers,

could

be

cultivated

and

become

a

trendylow-fat,

red-meat

alternative.

There

could

even

beroom

for

highly

creative

product

innovation:

theindustry’s

imaginative

take

on

dodo

poultry

couldmake

a

better

nugget

than

chicken,

or

a

burgermade

of

what

research

chefs

think

mammothmight

have

tasted

like

could

be

a

mouthwateringnew

concept.In

the

nearer

term,

companies

may

choose

to

focuson

a

single

area

and

mix

plant

protein

and

otherflavors

into

their

products

to

achieve

the

desiredtaste

and

texture.

Eat

Just’s

chicken

product

sold

inSingapore,

for

example,

is

more

than

70

percentcultivated

cells,

with

a

small

amount

of

plant

proteinadded

in

for

structure,

while

Future

Meat

in

Israelmixes

cultivated

fat

with

plant

protein.

It’s

too

earlyto

tell

if

blended

options

are

merely

an

interim

fix

or

ifthey

present

a

sufficiently

compelling

option

forlong-term

adoption.While

most

start-ups

are

focusing

first

on

morepopular

species

and

breeds,

Eat

Just’s

GOOD

Meatand

the

company

Orbillion

Bio

are

exploring

Wagyu,and

the

company

Vow

is

working

to

explore

moreexotic

options,

such

as

kangaroo

and

alpaca.Cultivated

meat:

Out

of

the

lab,

into

the

frying

pan5How

will

the

industry

handle

healthand

economic

concerns?Consumers

must

not

only

enjoy

cultivated

meat

butalso

trust

it.

The

onus

will

be

on

producers

to

makeconsumers

confident

that

cultivated

meat

is

assafe—and

as

nutritious—as

conventional

meatIf

cultivated

meat

gains

traction,

in

the

long

term

itmay

also

have

an

impact

on

jobs.

Cultivated-meatproduction

requires

a

similar

number

of

workers

asthe

conventional

system,

but

the

jobs

require

verydifferent

skills.products.

While

this

may

be

a

hurdle

in

the

near

term,

Finally,

because

cultivated-meat

production

doesn'thealth

and

nutrition

may

prove

an

advantage

in

thelonger

term

if

cultivated-meat

producers

candemonstrate

a

track

record

of

safety

(for

example,by

minimizing

foodborne-illness

risk)

or

releasetailored

(for

example,

“extra

lean”)

products

withsuperior

nutrition

profiles.require

any

particular

climate

or

topography,

therecould

be

regional

effects,

such

as

a

meat

producerlosing

at

least

some

of

its

competitive

advantage

toproducers

in

other

parts

of

the

country—or

world.Whatwill

it

take

to

compete

on

price?In

less

than

a

decade,

companies

have

been

able

toreduce

the

production

costs

of

cultivated

meat

by99

percent.

If

costs

follow

the

same

trajectory

asthat

of

human

genome

sequencing

(for

which

costs,on

average,

dropped

by

45

percent

annuallybetween

2001

and

2021),

cultivated

meat

canachieve

cost

parity

with

conventional

meat

by2030

(Exhibit

4).Potential

health

risks

could

affect

the

reputation

ofcultivated

meat,

such

as

the

fact

that

novelprocesses

may

introduce

ingredients

for

which

thehealth

effects

are

unknown

and

require

furtherstudy.

Furthermore,

nutritional

content

may

vary,and

consumer

education

may

be

required

to

ensurethat

consumers

properly

supplement

their

diets,if

necessary.Cultivated

meat

also

gives

rise

to

several

economicIt

won’t

be

easy.

Production

costs

for

cultivatedand

social

issues

that

could

raise

concerns.

The

first

meat

today

remain

well

above

those

of

conventionalinvolves

cost:

cultivated

meats

will

initially

bear

apremium

price

tag,

which

may

put

it

out

of

reach

forsome

consumers,

though

prices

will

likely

fall

as

theindustry

scales.animal

protein.

The

high

cost

is

a

result

of

lab-scaleand

pilot-scale

production

and

remaining

technicalchallenges.

Based

on

a

McKinsey

analysis,

about75

percent

of

costs

can

be

eliminated

throughincreased

scale

and

best-in-class

manufacturingprocesses,

while

roughly

25

percent

of

additionalcosts

can

be

eliminated

by

fine-tuning

R&D,More

complex

issues

include

the

possibility

that

thecultivated-meat

industry

could

eventually

disruptanimal-protein

prices,

perhaps

within

ten

years

or

so

bringing

the

total

cost

down

99.5

percent,

from

theof

continued

growth.

For

example,

if

certain

cuts

ofmeat

(such

as

filet

mignon)

are

replaced

bycultivated

options,

cheaper

cuts

of

conventionalmeat

may

cost

more

to

account

for

lost

sales

ofpricier

cuts.

Furthermore,

the

growth

of

cultivatedmeat

could

reduce

farm

sizes,

impacting

economiesof

scale

and

causing

price

increases

for

consumersof

conventional

meat.low

thousands

of

dollars

to

under

$5

per

pound.Further

cost

reduction

can

be

achieved

by

blendingcultivated

meats

with

plant

protein.It

could

take

about

a

decade

for

consumers

to

startpaying

less

for

cultivated

meat

than

its

conventionalcounterpart.

However,

there

is

evidence

in

today’smarketplace

that

consumers

are

willing

to

pay

extrafor

products

they

believe

to

be

healthier

or

moresustainable

(Exhibit

5).6Cultivated

meat:

Out

of

the

lab,

into

the

frying

panExhibit

4The

cost

of

cultivated

meat

has

comedown

atan

even

faster

ratethan

anotherwell-known

biotechnology—genome

sequencing.Comparativecostofchangingtechnologies(logarithmicscale)Cultivatedmeat,1$

perpoundCost

per

humangenome,

$1,000,000100,000,00010,000,0001,000,000100,000100,000a10,000b10001001010,000c1,000dYear024681012141618Year

20a

2013:Dutchscientistdevelopedandb

2016:MemphisMeatsproduceda

“cultivatedmeatball”forc

2019:FutureMeatTechnologiesreducedproductioncostsofchickento$150/lbandbeefto$200/lbd

2021:FutureMeatTechnologiesannounceditproduceda

4

ozchickenbreastat$4(withmixedplantprotein)produced?rstcultivatedmeatat~$300,000a

burger2~$20,000/lb1Cultivated-meat

curve

smoothed

outto

showstraightline

between

key

data

points.

Cultivated

meat

year0

=

2013;

Human

genome

year0

=

2001.2Based

on

€250,000

cost;

however,

Mosa

Meat

CEO

Maarten

Bosch

has

sharedin

aninterview

that

the

real

numberis

“abithigher.”Source:

National

Human

Genome

ResearchInstitute;press

searchExhibit

5Consumers

currently

paya

premium

for

protein

alternatives

that

are

importantto

them.Willingtopayforpremiumfood,

%

overregularcosts13112261498351100%Cage-freeeggsOrganiceggsOrganicmilkGrass-fedwholecutsof

beefGrass-fedground

beef1Based

on

USpricingdata.

Cage-free

egg

premiumand

organic-egg

premiumis

based

on

the

premiumfor

GradeA

eggs

using

the

averagepricefromJanuary

2018to

October

2020from

the

US

Department

of

Agriculture

(USDA).

Organic-milk

premiumis

calculated

based

on

the

comparison

ofpricingfornonorganic

milk

based

on

the

2020

averagepricingper

half

gallonfromUSDA.

Grass-fed,

whole-cut,

and

ground

beefis

based

on

the

2019to

2020

averagepricingfromUSDA.

Grass-fed

beefis

compared

with

the

averagepricingfrom

allbeef

cuts

(prime,

choice,

select,

ungraded).

Grass-fed

90

percent-plus

leanground

beefis

compared

with

non-grass-fed

90

percent-plus

lean

beef.Cultivated

meat:

Out

of

the

lab,

into

the

frying

pan7In

moving

from

pilot

scale

to

manufacturing

scale,cost

reductions

will

come

from

bulk

purchasing

ofkey

inputs,

such

as

glucose

and

media

ingredients,increased

batch

quantity

and

size,

and

using

fit-for-The

very

different

skills

required

by

cultivated

meatraises

the

question

of

how

labor

will

be

reskilled

andredeployed.

Because

cultivated-meat

production

isuntethered

from

climate

considerations,

these

jobspurpose

bioreactors

(for

example,

food

grade

versus

could

be

located

far

from

where

conventional-meatpharma

grade).

As

plants

improve

in

design

and

jobs

are

located

today.

States

or

countries

that

havegrow

in

scale,

the

utilities

required

per

unit

of

output

historically

accounted

for

an

outsize

share

ofwill

likely

also

come

down.production

could

see

a

shift

to

new

geographies

thatmay

be

closer

to

urban

centers,

have

specializedlabor,

or

other

advantages,

such

as

cheaper

utilityprices.

Job

losses

relative

to

the

conventionalsystem

are

also

possible

if

the

jobs

created

for

inputproduction

for

cultivated

meat

do

not

surpass

thosethat

could

be

lost

from

animal

ranchers.R&D

improvements

are

also

necessary

to

competeon

price

and

quality

with

conventional

meat.

Firstand

foremost,

the

cost

of

media

(the

broth

in

whichcells

grow)

will

need

to

come

down.

Ways

to

lowermedia

costs

include

minimizing

use

of

growthfactors,

optimizing

filtration

processes,

andmaximally

recycling

media.

Improving

cellThe

industry

could

prove

attractive

to

someproductivity

is

another

way

to

increase

output

perbatch.

This

is

achieved

by

increasing

cell

density

inmedia

through

cell-line

optimization

and

improvingcell-culture

feeding

processes

to

maximize

densityand

minimize

media

consumption

and

batch

time.jurisdictions

because

of

its

potential

to

be

moresustainable.

A

recent

Life

Cycle

Assessment

by

CEDelft

found

that

cultivated

meat

is

significantly

(over75

percent)

more

sustainable

by

measures

such

asCO2production

and

land

and

water

usage

than

beefand

has

a

sustainability

profile

similar

to

that

ofpoultry

and

pork.

Cultivated

meat’s

sustainability3How

will

policy

makers

respond?The

development

of

the

cultivated-meat

industrycould

have

social

and

economic

consequences

thatattract

attention

from

policy

makers

and

regulators.How

they

address

these

issues

will

in

turn

haveimplications

for

companies

operating

in

this

newmarket.

Here

we

offer

a

look

at

several

matters

thatprofile

can

be

better

than

that

of

chicken

orpork

if

sustainable

energy

is

used

or

if

processimprovements

are

implemented,

such

as

if

coolingis

not

needed

for

the

bioreactors.4Howcan

cultivated

meatscale

up

tocould

affect

the

industry’s

standing

with

governments.

a

globalindustry?Reaching

a

$25

billion

cultivated-meat

market

byFor

every

500,000

metric

tons

of

cultivated

protein(roughly

0.1

percent

of

the

2030

global

proteinmarket),

5,000

to

5,500

factory

jobs

are

likelyneeded,

which

is

about

the

same

number

ofproduction

jobs

needed

to

produce

protein

through2030

will

require

the

annual

production

of

1.5

milliontonnes

of

cultivated

meat.

At

current

levels

of

cell-culture

productivity,

the

industry

would

needanywhere

from

220

million

to

440

million

liters

offermentation

capacity,

enough

to

fill

88

to

176Olympic-size

swimming

pools.

Considering

that

theconventional

methods.

The

majority

of

jobs

are2expected

to

be

those

of

frontline

staff

(such

as

plant

pharma

industry’s

current

cell-culture

capacity

isoperators

and

supervisors),

while

10

to

20

percent

of

estimated

to

be

between

10

million

and

20

millionthe

profiles

are

expected

to

be

for

bio-processingengineers.

Beyond

direct

production,

jobs

will

alsobe

needed

to

support

development

of

key

inputs(such

as

media,

cell

lines),

equipment

(such

asbioreactors),

non-plant

tasks

(such

as

marketing,finance),

and

R&D.liters

(less

than

ten

swimming

pools),

it

will

take

a5massive

capital

build-out

just

to

reach

1

percent

ofthe

protein

market.2

Number

of

animal-slaughtering

and

-processing

jobs

(NAICS

311600)

is

calculated

based

on

US

Bureau

of

Labor

and

Statistics

data(May

2019)

for

management,

production,

and

transportation

and

material

moving

occupations.

Total

US

2019

animal

(excluding

seafood)consumption

based

on

OECD-FAO

Agricultural

Outlook

average

consumption

for

2017

to

2019.3

Ingrid

Odegard

and

Pelle

Sinke,

LCA

of

cultivated

meat:

Future

projections

for

different

scenarios,

CE

Delft,

February

2021,

cedelft.eu.4

Ibid.5

McKinsey

POBOS

Pharma

manufacturing

benchmark

database.8Cultivated

meat:

Out

of

the

lab,

into

the

frying

panGetting

this

capital

build-out

right

from

the

start

willbe

critical

to

the

affordability

of

cultivated

meat.

Wesee

three

challenges

for

companies

to

address

inclose

collaboration

with

advanced-industryequipment

manufacturers

and

engineering

andconstruction

(E&C)

firms.Understanding

and

controlling

variability

will

beimportant

to

create

a

robust,

scalable

process

that

isefficient

both

in

energy

and

raw-material

inputs.Advanced

analytics

and

machine

learning,

which

arenow

gaining

steam

in

pharma,

can

be

used

toidentify

sources

of

variability

in

manufacturing

andto

make

improvements.1.

Figure

out

the

raw-materials

supply

chainConsidering

only

the

consumables

and

rawmaterials

needed

for

cultivated

meat,

scaling

theindustry

will

require,

at

minimum,

access

to

largeand

consistent

supplies

of

sugar,

basic

media3.

Create

easy-to-build

factory

designsFactories

and

factory

components

need

to

be

highlymodular

so

they

can

be

located

wherever

there

is