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Chapter2AChangedGlobalRealityNotestotheTextFinancialinstitutionthatseemedassolidasgranitedisappearedasiftheywerenomoresubstantial
thanabunchofflowersinthehandsofanoldstylemagician.原來堅(jiān)如磐石的金融機(jī)構(gòu)消失了,似乎還不如老套的魔術(shù)師手中變出的花束看起來真實(shí)。NotestotheTextthestuffofhistory:historicalAndithasbeen:anellipsismakeone’swayto:前往某處cometotermswithsomething:妥協(xié)、接受NotestotheTextWEF(WorldEconomicForum)Anindependentorganizationcommittedtoimprovingthestateoftheworldbybringingtogetherbusiness,political,academicandsocialleaderstoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.Question1Whatarethefeaturesofthetwomajoreconomiesthattheworldhasseenformorethan200years?Onehasdominatedtechnologicalinnovationandtradeandamassedgreatwealth.Thesecond—muchofitpoliticallyunderthethumbofthefirst—hasremainedpoorandtechnologicallydependent.NotestotheTextFourAsianDragonsHongKongSAR,Singapore,RepublicofKoreaandTaiwanAreaNotestotheTextThedevelopedworldofthehavesisstrugglingtorestartgrowthandpreservewelfarestates,whiletheworldoftheoncehave-notshassurgedoutofthedownturn.生活富有的發(fā)達(dá)國家正在努力重新刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并維持社會(huì)福利,而那些曾經(jīng)貧困的發(fā)展中國家卻已經(jīng)擺脫了經(jīng)濟(jì)困境。Question2Howmuchdidlow-and-middle-incomecountriescontributetoworldgrowthin2010?Almosthalf(46%)Question3Takingalongtermview,whyisitgoodnewsthatdevelopingcountriesaregrowingfast?Asbillionsofpoorpeoplebecomemoreprosperous,theywillbeabletoaffordthecomfortstheircounterpartsintherichworldhavelongconsideredthenormalappurtenancesoflife.由于數(shù)以億計(jì)的窮人變得更加富有,這些人將能夠支付得起富裕國家的人們長(zhǎng)期視為正常生活一部分的舒適的物質(zhì)條件。NotestotheTextOtherwise,theworldcouldyettipbackintobeggar-thy-neighborpopulismthatwillendupbeggaringeveryone.Wearenotoutofthewoodsyet.beggar-thy-neighborpopulism以鄰為壑的民粹主義outofthewoods擺脫困境否則,這個(gè)世界可能退回到以鄰為壑的民粹主義中去,而其結(jié)果將會(huì)使各國經(jīng)濟(jì)更加糟糕(淪為乞丐)。我們?nèi)晕疵撾x困境。Question4Whataretheworst-casescenariosthatEuropehassofaravoided?Acollapseoftheeuro,adebtcrisisthatspillsfromsmalleconomiessuchasGreeceandIrelandtomuchbiggeroneslikeItalyandSpain,andbittersocialunrestinthosenationsthatarehavingtomassagewagesdownwhilecuttingpublicbudgets.NotestotheTextdouble-diprecession雙底衰退Itdescribesasituationinwhichtheeconomygrowthslidesbacktonegativeafterashort-livedgrowthandtheeconomymaymoveintoadeeperandlongerdownturn.索羅斯是在匈牙利首都布達(dá)佩斯發(fā)表演講時(shí)做上述表態(tài)的。他表示,還不能確定全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的下一次走低是否會(huì)在2010年或2011年發(fā)生?!半p底型衰退”(doublediprecession)又稱“W型衰退指在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)觸底逐漸回升時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可能失去動(dòng)能,在不久的將來會(huì)再一次觸底。2009年下半年,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)開始從金融危機(jī)中觸底反彈,但是,不少媒體和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界的人士包括索羅斯認(rèn)為,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇可能失去動(dòng)能,“雙底”衰退具有實(shí)質(zhì)性威脅。NotestotheTextThoughEuropeiswheezingundercascadingsovereign-debtcrises,ithassofaravoidedtheworst-casescenarios---acollapseoftheeuro……………盡管歐洲在洶涌而至的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)下茍延殘喘,但到目前為止,它已避免了最糟糕的狀況---歐元的崩潰。。。。。。。NotestotheTexttidingsn.(古)消息Cassandran.卡珊德拉InGreekmythology,Cassandra,alsoknownasAlexandra,wasagoddesswiththegiftofprophecy.flattenout:stopgrowing/goingup
e.g.GoldpriceontheLondonmarketareexpectedtoflattenoutafteraperiodoffluctuation.Question5WhydoesJimWalkerthinkthat2011willbea“yearofreckoning”?BecauseJimWalkerthinksthatthereboundintheUSisamiragecreatedbyexcessivestimulus.HeexpectstheUStoslipintothedoubledipitdodgedin2010.Question6Whyhastheprivate-sectordebtcrisisof2008-2009morphedintoapublic-sectordebtcrisisin2010-11?Ithasbeentheresultofthedebtanddeficitsamassedintheprocessofstimulatingeconomiesandbailingoutbanksduringthedownturn.
bailout:tohelpsomeoneoutofdifficultsituation,oftenbygivingthemmoney.NotestotheTextscalebacksth/scalesthback
相應(yīng)縮減,按比例
減少e.g.Regulatorsareclampingdownontheseinstitutions,forcingthemtoraisecapitalandscalebacklending.監(jiān)管部門也在向這些機(jī)構(gòu)施壓,要求它們籌資并縮減貸款。NotestotheTextBallooningdebtsandfeeblegrowthprospectsfortheadvancedeconomiesarereorderingtheinvestor’sperceptionofrisk.balloonvi.Whensomethingballoons,itincreasesrapidlyinamount.激增;猛漲發(fā)達(dá)國家債務(wù)激增,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展疲軟,這種現(xiàn)象正在改變投資者對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的判斷。NotestotheTextNotingthattheU.S.“hasnoplaninplacetostabilizeandultimatelyreversetheupwarddebttrajectory,”Moody’sinmid-Januarywarnedthatthecountry’sAAAcreditratingcouldcomeunderpressureifdebtcontinuestomount;afewdayslater,Moody’supgradedIndonesia’srating.注意到美國“沒有合適的計(jì)劃來穩(wěn)定并最終逆轉(zhuǎn)上揚(yáng)的債務(wù)曲線,”穆迪公司在一月中旬警告說如果美國的債務(wù)繼續(xù)增加,這個(gè)國家的3A信用等級(jí)可能面臨壓力;幾天之后,穆迪公司提升了印尼的信用等級(jí)。NotestotheText快速增長(zhǎng)的通貨膨脹強(qiáng)勁的國內(nèi)需求增長(zhǎng)刺激性政策商品價(jià)格(市場(chǎng))需求回歸供應(yīng)限制因素寬松的貨幣政策食品價(jià)格指數(shù)達(dá)到歷史新高飛漲的價(jià)格asharpriseininflationstrongdomesticgrowthstimuluspoliciescommoditypricesreturningdemandsupplyconstraintsloose-moneypoliciesfoodpriceindexreachanall-timehighspikingpricesQuestion7Whataretherisksthatemergingeconomiesface?a.sharpriseininflationb.risingoilpricesc.soaringfoodpriceNotestotheTextInmid-January,Chinaraisedthereserve-requirementratio---whichforcesbankstoparkmoremoneyathomeforeveryloantheymake---toarecordhighinanattempttocurtailcreditandquellinflation,whichroseatthefastestpaceintwoyearsinNovember.一月中旬,中國提高銀行準(zhǔn)備金率至歷史新高,強(qiáng)制銀行每發(fā)放一筆貸款就必須在央行存入更多的儲(chǔ)備金。中國試圖以此減少信貸并且抑制通過膨脹。今年十一月,中國的通貨膨脹達(dá)到兩年來的最快增速。Question8WhatdidChinaandIndiadotocopewithinflationandrisingfoodprices?Chinaraisedthereserve-requirementratio;IndiaresortedtodiplomaticmeanswhenPakistantemporarilycutoffsomeexportsofonionstothecountry.NotestotheTextragingfoodprices
飆升的食品價(jià)格cutoffexports
削減出口bustinflation
消除通貨膨脹dampengrowth
抑制增長(zhǎng)Question9Howtounderstandpopulistresentmentinthisparagraph?Sincecommonpeopleindevelopedcountrieswerestillsufferingfromunemploymentduringtherecovery,therefore,theymaytransferdissatisfactionwithdomesticeconomytopeoplelivinginemergingeconomieslikeChina,IndiaandpartsofAfrica,thusbreedingafeelingofpopulistresentment.NotestotheText…tookplaceinahighlychargedatmosphere.Ifasituationischarged,itisfilledwithemotionandthereforeverytenseorexciting.Chinaistiredofbeinglecturedtobythosewhoseemunabletomanagetheirowneconomiesparticularlywell.中國厭倦了被那些連自己的經(jīng)濟(jì)都管理不好的國家教訓(xùn)。NotestotheTextU.Sbusinesses,whichhaveinthepastbesupportiveoffreetradeandengagementwithChina,arebeginningtosingwithdifferentvoices.Comment:TheU.SgovernmentisnowtryingtoexertinfluenceuponinternationaltradeandturnedagainstChinatimeandagain.NotestotheTextIntheU.S.andEurope,acertainhelplessnessinthefaceofhugeeconomicforcesisfuelingadisaffection---whichmakesitselffeltindifferentwaysindifferentsocieties---withtheglobalfinancialelitesandthepolicymakerswhoarethoughttohaveconnivedwiththem.在美國和歐洲,面對(duì)巨大經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力卻無能力的現(xiàn)象正激起人們對(duì)全球的金融精英和和決策者的不滿,認(rèn)為他們串通一氣,這種不滿在不同的社會(huì)表現(xiàn)形式不同。NotestotheTextTherewasaparticularlypoignantmomentwhenIreland,whichcherishesitsindependencelikeapreciousjewel,wasforcedtogocapinhandtotheEUforabailoutinNovember.視獨(dú)立如珍寶的愛爾蘭,11月為了得到緊急財(cái)政援助,不得不向歐盟求助,這令人感到非常心酸。NotestotheText…whichexcoriatedabourgeoiscapitalismwhose“fumbleinagreasytill/Andaddthehalfpencetothepence/Andprayertoshiveringprayer,until/Youhavedriedthemarrowfromthebone.”這行詩痛斥了資本主義商人“在滿是油污的錢柜里摸索,一點(diǎn)一點(diǎn)積攢,不停地禱告,直到榨干工人的骨髓(最后一滴血)。Question10Howcanadisaffectionwithglobalcapitalisminthedevelopedworldbepreventedfromturningintoabacklashagainstit?如何阻止人們對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國家所倡導(dǎo)的全球資本主義的不滿演變?yōu)閺?qiáng)烈抵制?Itwouldhelpifthereweremechanismsinplacetomanagethestressesintheinternationaleconomy.NotestotheTextTheDoharoundoftradetalks,…..everyoneknowsthereisnothingthere,butnobodywillsayso.Comment:Nopracticalachievementhadbeenreachedduringthetalkssincetheattendingcountriesconsideredtoomuchabouttheirowninterests.NotestotheTextYettheunmediatedriftbetweencountries(2),eachdesperatetopreserveitsedgeintheglobaleconomicgame(1),isnoteventhemostseriousdivisionthatpolicymakershavetocontendwith(3).在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)博弈中,各國都竭盡全力保持自身的優(yōu)勢(shì)
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