世界銀行（World Bank）：波黑的就業(yè)診斷：煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型的影響

PublicDisclosureAuthorized

PublicDisclosureAuthorized

J0BS

DIAGNOSTIC

BOSNIAAND

HERZEGOVINA

Céline

Ferré,NerminOruc,KevwePela,

andElizabethRuppertBulmer

ImplicationsofCoalTransition

米ESMAP

EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram

WORLDBANKGROUP

SocialProtection&Jobs

DIAGNOSTIC

BOSNIAAND

HERZEGOVINA

Céline

Ferré,NerminOruc,KevwePela,

andElizabethRuppertBulmer

ImplicationsofCoalTransition

◎2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank.

1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA.

Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:.

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iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

ThisstudywascarriedoutbyElizabethRuppertBulmer(TeamLeader,LeadEconomist),KevwePela(Economist),CélineFerré(Consultant)andNerminOruc(Consultant),JobsGroup,WorldBank.TheworkwaspreparedaspartoftheWorldBanksSupporttoEnergyTransitioninCoalRegions(P171194).StrategicguidancewasprovidedbyRachelPerks(Sr.MiningSpecialistandTaskTeamLeaderfortheWorldBank'scoalsectorengagementinBosniaandHerzegovina),DzenanMalovic(Sr.EnergySpecialistandco-TaskTeamLeader)andlanWalker(Manager,JobsGroup),undertheseniorleadershipofDemetriosPapathanasiou(GlobalDirector,EnergyandExtractives)andMichalRutkowski(GlobalDirector,SocialProtectionandJobs).

FinancialsupportfromtheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)isgratefullyacknowledged.ThroughtheWorldBankGroup(WBG),ESMAPworkstoacceleratetheenergytransitionrequiredtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal7(SDG7)toensureaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainable,andmodernenergyforall

Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkarethoseoftheauthors,anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

V

TABLEOFCONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSiv

ABBREVIATIONSvii

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

1

1.INTRODUCTION

3

2.MACRO-STRUCTURALCONTEXTANDDEMOGRAPHICCHALLENGES

5

3.ADIFFICULTJOBSCONTEXT

9

3.1EMPLOYMENTOUTCOMESOVERTHEPASTDECADE

9

3.2CHARACTERISTICSOFTHELABORFORCE

13

4.CHARACTERIZINGCOALSECTORWORKERS

16

4.1COMPARINGCOALSECTORSKILLSTOOTHERSECTORS

16

4.2COALSECTORCOMPENSATION

19

5.COALSECTOREMPLOYMENT,PRESENTANDFUTURE

21

5.1SNAPSHOTOFCOALPRODUCTIONINBiH

21

5.2DIRECTCOALSECTOREMPLOYMENT

22

5.3INDIRECTCOALEMPLOYMENTINTHECOALVALUECHAIN

24

5.4LOCALLABORMARKETIMPLICATIONSOFPOTENTIALCOALSECTORJOBLOSSES

28

6.POLICIESTOSUPPORTWORKERS'TRANSITIONANDIMPROVELABORMARKETOUTCOMES32

6.1INTERPLAYBETWEENLABOROUTCOMESANDTHEBROADERECONOMY

32

6.2SHORT-TERMPLANNINGANDDIAGNOSTICS

33

6.3COMPLEMENTARYPOLICIESTOIMPROVELABORMARKETFUNCTIONINGANDOUTCOMES35

Vi

REFERENCES

38

ANNEX1

40

ANNEX2

42

ANNEX3

56

Vii

ABBREVIATIONS

ALMP

ActiveLaborMarketProgram

BiH

BosniaandHerzegovina

CHP

CombinedHeatandPowerPlant

EFT

EnergyFinancingTeam

EPBiH

ElektroprivredaBosneiHercegovine

ERS

ElektroprivredaRepublikeSrpske

EU

EuropeanUnion

FBiH

FederationofBosniaandHerzegovina

FGD

FlueGasDesulfurization

GAWB

GreenAgendafortheWesternBalkans

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

GHG

Greenhousegas

HCl

HumanCapitalIndex

HR

HumanResources

ICT

InformationandCommunicationTechnology

IEA

InternationalEnergyAgency

ILO

InternationalLabourOrganization

ISCED

InternationalStandardClassificationofEducation

LFS

LaborForceSurvey

NEET

NeitherinEducation,Employment,orTraining

NERP

NationalEmissionReductionPlan

NGO

NongovernmentalOrganization

OECD

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

PES

PublicEmploymentServices

PPA

PublicProcurementAgency

PPP

PurchasingPowerParity

PV

Photovoltaic

RiTE

RudnikiTermoelektrana

RS

RepublikaSrpska

SMEs

SmallandMediumEnterprises

SOE

State-OwnedEntity

STEM

Saence,Technology,Engineering,andMathematics

TPP

ThermalPowerPlant

TVET

TechnicalandVocationalEducationandTraining

WDI

WorldDevelopmentIndicators

1

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

Asuccessfultransitionawayfromcoalminingandcoal-firedpowergenerationinBosniaandHerzegovina(BiH)isparticularlyimportantfortheregion'sbroaderclimatetransition.Coalaccountsforover60percentofthecountry'selectricityproductionandisalsowidelyusedforheatgeneration.BiHreliesonbrowncoalandligniteforoverhalfitsprimaryenergysupply—amongthehighestsharesintheworld.

Thetransitiontocarbonneutralitywillputjobsatrisk.Workersincoalandotherfossilfuelsectorsandcarbon-intensiveindustries,aswellasthoseemployedinthetownsandregionswherecoalactivityisconcentrated,willbethehardesthit.Inadditiontodirectlyaffectedworkers—namely,thoseemployedincoalminesandpowerplants—asignificantnumberofjobsinnon-coalsectorswillalsobeaffected.

Althoughthecoalsectoraccountsforamodestshareofoverallemploymentinthenationaleconomy,itisasignificantemployeratthelocallevel,especiallyaroundGacko,Banovici,Ugljevik,Breza,andKakanj.Thesemunicipalitieswouldbeparticularlyvulnerabletoeconomicfalloutfromminedosure,notonlyduetotheirdependenceonthecoalsectorbutalsobecauseofalreadyhighunemployment.Inascenarioinwhichallcoal-relatedjobsareeventuallylost,theinfluxintolocallabormarketsofjobseekersdisplacedfromcoaljobswouldmassivelyincreasethepoolofunemployedworkersandlikelyexacerbateexistingskillsmismatch.Coalsectorworkersmayfinditdifficulttofindjobsthatarealignedwiththeirskills,giventhatoccupationsinhighestdemandinthecurrentlabormarketareforlow-skilledworkersnotnecessarilyalignedwithcoal-relatedworkers'specializations.Moreover,mostcoalsectorjobsareinthepublicsector,payhighwages,andprovidegoodnonwagebenefits;thismeansthatmostcoalsectorworkers—especiallylower-skilledcoalworkers—wouldlikelystruggletofindcomparablecompensationinothersectors.

Asofend-2022,14,600workersweredirectlyemployedincoalminesandthermalpowerplants(TPPs)andanother2,400workerswereemployedupstreaminthecoalvaluechaininfirmssupplyinginputstominesandpowerplants.Takentogether,anestimated17,000workerswouldbeatriskoflosingtheirjobsintheeventofmineandpowerplantclosures(notcountingthoseemployedinfirmsprovidinggoodsandservicestocoalsectorworkersandtheirfamilies,thatis,thelocalbusinessesinandaroundthecoalregions).

Thelabormarket'scapacitytoabsorbdisplacedcoalsectorworkersintoalternativeemploymentisseverelylimited,dueinlargemeasuretodistortionsrelatedtoasignificantpublicsectorpresence,segmentationbetweengood-qualitypublicsectorjobsandpoor-qualityprivatesectorjobs,anddisincentivestowork.BiH'shighlevelsofregisteredunemploymentmaskextensiveunreportedinformalemploymentandmigration,andreflectapreferencetoqueueforpublicjobsratherthanacceptlessappealingworkintheprivatesector.PrivateemploymentinBiHisdominatedbyjobsinlow-productivity,low-payingsectorssuchasagriculture,manufacturing,transport,andwholesaleandretailtrade.Lowlaborforceparticipation,highoutmigration,highunemployment,andextensiveskillsmismatchandperceptionsmismatchbetweenjobseekersandemployerstogetherreflecttheunderutilizationofBiH'shumancapitalresourcesandpotentiallaborproductivity.Thewidegapbetweenworkers'preferencesandemployers'skillsdemandimpedesjobmatching,bothacrossBiHandwithincoalregions.

2

Lessonsfrompastcoaltransitionsinothercountriesareinstructive,giventhatBiHfacessimilarchallenges.Manycoalregionsareremotelylocatedandpoorlyconnectedtolargecommercialcenters,andlocaleconomiesarenotwelldiversified,especiallywhereminesorpowerplantsarethedominantemployerandcrowdoutothereconomicactivity.Publicownershipofminesandenergyutilitiesand/orastrongunionpresencemeansthatclosingminesorpowerstationsispoliticallysensitive,especiallygiventhatpastdosureepisodesinothercountriesresultedinprolongedlocalizedeconomicandsocialdislocation.Onekeyexplanationoftheobserveddislocationwasthattransitionpackagesgenerallydidnotextendbeyonddirectmineemployeestocovernonunioninformalorcontractemployeesofmines,workersinsupportingindustries,orotherworkersinthelocaleconomywhoselivelihoodssufferedfollowingmineclosures.

Coaltransitionplanningatthenational,regional,andlocallevelsneedstobecoordinatedacrossgovernmentandmustconsideranticipatedemploymenteffects.Todesigneffectivepoliciestomitigatethenegativeimpactonworkersandfacilitatetheirtransitionintoalternativelivelihoods,itisessentialtounderstandthemagnitudeandnatureoftheseemploymenteffects.Newand/orrevisedpoliciestoaddressexistinglabormarketdistortionsshouldbeaccompaniedbynewprogramsthatpromoteworkermobiltyandreskilingtofaclitatelaborreallocationfollowingmineandpowerplantclosures.Upstreamdiagnosticstoinformadvancedplanningbeforeclosuresgetunderwayareimportantforensuringthatworkersandcommunitiesarenotleftbehind.

3

1.INTRODUCTION

UndertheGreenAgendafortheWesternBalkans(GAWB),adoptedin2020toalignwiththeEuropeanUnion(EU)GreenDeal,thegovernmentsoftheWesternBalkansagreedtoanactionplanforplacingsustainabledevelopment,resourceefficiency,natureprotection,anddimateactionatthecenterofalleconomicactivities.TheEU,inturn,pledgedfinancingofEUR9billioningrantsandEUR20billionininvestmentstosupportimplementationoftheactionplan.!Acceleratingthecoalphaseoutisakeyareaofagreedpolicyactionandisessentialforshiftingtocarbon-neutralenergyproduction.Giventhatcarbondioxideistheprimarycontributortogreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,?theshiftawayfromfossilfuels—andespeciallycoal—isapriority.

Asuccessfultransitionoutofcoalminingandcoal-firedpowergenerationinBosniaandHerzegovina(BiH)isparticularlyimportantfortheWesternBalkans'coalphaseoutandbroaderclimatetransition.Browncoalandligniteaccountedfor52percentofBiH'sprimaryenergysupplyin2019,amongthehighestsharesintheworld(onlytheDemocraticPeoplesRepublicofKorea,SouthAfrica,Mongolia,andChinahavehighercoaldependencies).3In2020,BiHproduced13.56milliontonnesofbrowncoalandlignite,whichweremostlyusedtogenerateelectricityatpowerplantsnearthemines.Over60percentofthecountry'selectricityproductionwasfromcoalin2020.Coalisalsowidelyusedforheatgeneration.Together,coalaccountsfor99percentofallCO2emissionsfromelectricityandheatgenerationinBiH.4

Thetransitiontocarbonneutralitywillputcoal-relatedjobsatrisk,especiallyinandaroundcoalminesandpowerplantsitesbutalsobeyond.Workersinfossilfuelsectorsandcarbon-intensiveindustries,aswellasthoseemployedinthetownsandregionswherecoalactivityisconcentrated,willlikelybethehardesthit.Thisnoteestimatestheextentofthepotentialemploymentimpactintermsofthenumberofjobsaffected,theocationsofthesejobs,andthetypesofworkersinthesejobs.Inadditiontodirectlyaffectedworkers-namely,thoseemployedinthecoalsectorinminesandpowerplants—asignificantnumberofjobsinnon-coalsectorswillalsobeaffected.Theseindirecteffectsrelatetoworkersalongthecoalvaluechain,includingemployeesinfirmsthatsupplycoalminesandpowerplantswitharangeofgoodsandservicesthatareinputstoproduction.Otherindirecteffectsrelatetoworkersandfirmsthatprovidegoodsandservicesconsumedbycoalsectoremployeesandtheirfamilies;whencoalsectorworkerslosetheirjobs,theirdemandforconsumergoodsandserviceswoulddiminish,withnegativeconsequencesforthelocaleconomy.

SomecommonchallengesobservedinpastcoaltransitionsinothercountriesarelikelypresentinBiHaswell.Manycoalregionsareremotelylocatedandpoorlyconnectedtolargecommercialcenters;asaresult,localeconomiesarenotwelldiversified,andminesandpowerplantsaresometimesthedominantemployer.Minesandpowerplantsinmanycountriesarepubliclyowned,andthesectorhasastrongunionpresenceandprovidesattractivecompensationcomparedtoothersectors.Coalmineclosureinthesesettingsispoliticallysensitive,asdisplacedworkersmaystruggletotransitiontoalternativejobs.PastmineclosuresinPolandillustrate

1ThefirstindicativetimeframeisfortheharmonizationwiththeEUEmissionsTradingSystemby2024.

/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/GAWB-ACTION-PLAN-Final-04.10.2021.pdf

.2In2019,CO?accountedfor81.6percentofEUGHGemissions.

3

/data-and-statistics/

.

4lbid

4

thepotentiallyhigheconomiccosts(RuppertBulmeretal.2021).Evenwhenlaborunionshavesuccessfullynegotiatedtransitionpackagestomitigatethelossesincurredbytheirmembers,transitionpackagestypicallydonotcovernon-unionworkers(suchasinformalorcontractemployeesofmines)orworkersinsupportingindustriesorotheraffectedworkersinthelocaleconomy.Shiftingtolesslabor-intensiverenewableenergygenerationatalargescaleandphasingoutofcoalrisksprecipitatingmajorsocialandfiscalchallengesincoalregions,whichinturncanunderminetheviabilityoflocalcommunities(Lobaoetal.2021;RuppertBulmeretal.2021;WorldBank2018a).

National,regional,andlocaleconomicplanning,includingthatrelatedtotheGreenAgenda,needstoconsideranticipatedemploymenteffects.Policiescanbedesignedtomitigatethenegativeimpactonworkersandfacilitatetheirtransitionintoalternativelivelihoods,buttodothiseffectively,itisessentialtounderstandthemagnitudeandnatureoftheseemploymenteffectsandapplyrelevantlessonsfrominternationalexperience.

Thisreportanalyzesthepossibleimpactoffuturecoalmineclosuresoncoalsectorworkersaswellasworkersinothereconomicsectorslinkedtothecoalvaluechainandtheimplicationsforlocallabormarkets.Thelabormarketcontextinwhichmineorplantclosuresoccurmattersbecauseitinfluencesthecapacityofaffectedworkerstotransitiontoalternativeemployment.Usingdatafromavarietyofsources—laborforcesurveys(LFSs),administrativedatafromgovernmentagencies,employmentinformationfromminingcompaniesandthermalpowerplants(TPPs),andinformationonminingcompanysubcontractors-theanalysisprovidesestimatesofthemagnitudeandcharacteristicsofpotentiallyaffectedworkers.Tounderstandtheprofileofpotentiallyaffectedworkers,thestudycollectedbothquantitativeandqualitativedatafromcoalminingandenergyconglomerates(directlyaffectedworkers)andfirmsinthecoalvaluechain(indirectlyaffectedworkers).5Theanalysisappliesaspatiallenstoidentifyregionaldifferenceswithrespecttorisksandopportunities.

Thisreportconcludeswithanassessmentoflikelyoccupationandskillsmismatcharisingfromfuturemineclosuresandadiscussionofpolicyoptionstoreducethismismatch.Existingstructuralandlabormarketchallengesmakeeffectivepolicydesigndifficult.Policyreformstoaddresscurrentlabormarketdistortionscomplementedbynewprogramstopromoteworkermobilityandreskilingwillbeessentialpartsofthegovernmenttoolkittofacilitatelaborreallocationfollowingmineclosuresandenergytransitionawayfromcoal.Upstreamdiagnosticstoinformadvancedplanningbeforeclosuresgetunderwayareimportantforensuringthatworkersandcommunitiesarenotleftbehind.Thisreportendsbyproposingaseriesofactionstofilltheremainingknowledgegapsandredesignlaborprogramsandcomplementarypoliciestofacilitatelabortransitionthatiseconomicallyandsociallysustainable.

5Additionaldatacollectionwillbecarriedoutinafuturephasetodeepenknowledgeofthepotentialindirecteffectsonthelocaleconomiesclosetominesandpowerplantswheremineclosurecouldhavenegativespillovereffects.

5

Annualgrowth(%)

Annualgrowth(%)

2.MACRO-STRUCTURALCONTEXT

ANDDEMOGRAPHICCHALLENGES

BiHhasexperiencedsteadygrowthoverthelastdecade,albeitataslowerpacecomparedtobefore2009.UntiltheCOVID-19pandemichit,thecountrywasabletorecoverfromthe2009globalfinancialcrisis,reachingaGDPgrowthrateofabout3percentin2015—yetlaggingmanyofitsWesternBalkanneighbors(Figure1,panela).AlthoughBiH'sgrowthrateisgenerallyhigherthantheEUaverage(Figure1,panelb),BiHstartedfromalowbaseafterthedissolutionoftheformerYugoslavia.TheBosniaandHerzegovinawar(1992-1995)hammeredthecountryseconomy;between1989and1995,thecountry'soutputdroppedbyalmost80percent.BiHscurrentGDPpercapitaisone-thirdoftheEUaverage,andatthecurrentpaceofgrowth,itwilltakeabout100yearstoachieveEUsaverageincomelevel(WorldBank2020a).BiH'sgrowthisheavilyreliantonsourcesthatarenotsustainableinthelongterm—notablyhighlevelsofconsumption.Lowinvestmentlevelsandexportvolumes—especiallycomparedtoBiHSWesternBalkanneighbors-arealsoslowingeconomicgrowth(Figure2).

FIGURE1

GDPgrowth

A.WesternBalkanscomparison

—BosniaandHerzegovina一…-NorthMacedonia

Kosovo

Montenegro—·—Albania

——Serbia

Source:WorldDevelopmentIndicators(WDI)database.

B.Regionalcomparison

-6

—BosniaandHerzegovina

EuropeanUnion

-EuropeandCentralAsia(IDAandIBRDcountries)—-EuropeandCentralAsia

6

1,000people

Millionconstant2010USD

annuagrowthrate

FIGURE2

FactorsinrealGDPgrowth,2019(%)

Macedonia

Herzegovina

ConsumptionNetexportsInvestmentRealGDPgrowth(%)

Source:WorldBank2020a.

Thecountry'sslowpaceofurbanizationandstructuraltransformationislinkedtolowerproductivityandlowerincomes.ThecountryisamongthemostruralinEurope,withthree-fifthsofthepopulationlivinginruralareas.TheobservedslowtransitionoutofagricultureactivitymeansthatalargeshareofBiHworkersengageinrelativelylow-productivity,poorlypaidjobs(Figure3);asof2019,jobsinagriculturestillaccountedfornearly18percentoftotalemployment-veryhighcomparedtootherupper-middle-incomecountries-butcontributeonly8percentoftheeconomy'stotalvalueadded.

Anagingpopulationandhighoutmigrationhavelimitedthehumancapitalcontributiontoeconomicgrowth.WhereasGDPpercapitagrowthoverthelastdecadewasdrivenprimarilybyincreasedwithin-sectorlaborproductivity,higherparticipationrates,andespeciallyhigheremploymentrates,thelevelofemploymentactuallydeclined(Figure4).Thecountryspopulationplummetedfromabout3.7milliontoapproximately3.3millionbetween2010and2019(Figure5,panela),anditisestimatedthatby2050,thepopulationwilldrop

FIGURE3

Sectorbreakdownofemploymentandvalueadded

A.EmploymentbysectorB.Valueaddedbysector

AgricultureIndustry

Services—ValueAddedGrowth(RHS)

Source:JobsGroupstructuraltool.

7

Population'000

percent(%)

FIGURE4

Decompositionofpercapitagrowthandlabormarkettrends

A.Decompositionofgrowth

invalueadded/capita

%YearlyContributiontoGrowth

ProductivityParticipationrate

EmploymentrateDemographicchange

B.Annualaveragechangeinkey

labormarketindicators,2011-2019

%Change

Source:JobsGroupstructuraltool,datafromLFS2011-2019.

FIGURE5

Populationdynamics

A.Populationprojection

15-64

65+

■0-14

B.Old-agedependencyratio

——BosniaandHerzegovina

--—WesternBalkans

EuropeanUnion

Source:UnitedNations2020.

Note:WesternBalkanaverageincludesAlbania,BiH,Montenegro,NorthMacedonia,andSerbia.NodataareavailableforKosovo.

byanother20percent(toabout2.7million)(WorldBank2020a).6Thecountryhasthehighestemigrationrateintheregion(Figure6).Populationagingandoutmigrationhaveledtoanannualshrinkingoftheworking-agepopulationandthelaborforceby3percentand2percent,respectively,since2011,concurrentwithanincreasingdependencyratio(Figure5,panelb);thesedemographictrendswillcontinuetobeacorechallengeforbetterlabormarketoutcomesinthefuture,asfewerpeopleofworkingagewillneedtosupportalargernumberofold-agedependentsandtheassociatedfiscalcostsofpensionpay