高盛-全球科技行業(yè)-手機行業(yè) Global Tech Smartph

18September2024|2:33PMHKT

GlobalTech:Smartphoneupdates:Tri-foldphoneslaunched;risingfoldablephonetrendswithmodestgrowthsmartphonemarket

Tri-foldphoneslaunched:HuaweimateXTwaslaunchedon11SepwithstartingpriceatRmb19,999(US$2,819).WeseeleadingsmartphonebrandslaunchingmorefoldablephonesfromJuntoSepinvariousforms,including?ipfoldableandtri-foldsmartphones.PricesofthefoldablephonesrangedfromUS$685-US$2,819,

targetingthehigh-endmarket.Speci?cationsupgrademainlyinhinges,largerdisplaysize,thinneracoustics,cameraandbattery.Wearepositiveonthenewsmartphoneformfactors,whichcouldattractmoreenduserstoreplacephones.

Foldablephonessupplychainbene?ciariesinExhibit1.

GlobalsmartphonesTAMupdates:Westillexpectamodest4%/3%YoYgrowthofglobalsmartphoneshipmentin2024/25Egivenlowsentimentonconsumer

spending.Foldablephonewilllikelybestrongandgrowat45%YoYto26munitsin2024E,drivingpenetrationrateto2.2%forthefullyear(vs.1.3%in2Q).Weexpectmorefoldablephonelaunchesin2H24,alongwiththeinnovativetri-fold

smartphones,tosupportacceleratinggrowthforthisemergingcategoryin2H24.Relatedreports:

GlobalTech:PCs,smartphones,servers:Quantifyingmarketopportunities(LaunchingGlobalTAMsonOct3,2023)

GlobalTech:Smartphoneupdates:Restockingsupports4Q;recoveryin2024-25E(UpdatesonOct31,2023)

ChinaSmartphones:AIphoneswithmorespeci?canswers,smarterAIassistants,

_

andinteractionwithappsformaps,delivery,socialmedia(UpdatesonNov19,2023)

GlobalSmartphones:Foldable:Introducingfoldablephoneforecasts;hingesande-paperinitiations(UpdatesonFeb1,2024)

AllenChang

+852-2978-2930|

allen.k.chang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

VerenaJeng

+852-2978-1681|verena.jeng@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

MichaelNg,CFA

+1(212)902-8618|michael.ng@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GiuniLee

+82(2)3788-1177|giuni.lee@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch

TimothyZhao

+852-2978-2673|timothy.zhao@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

XuanZhang

+852-2978-1478|xuan.zhang@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

KatrinaChiu

+852-2978-1197|katrina.chiu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

KatherineCampagna

+1(212)902-1151|

katherine.a.campagna@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

TaeyongLee

+82(2)3788-0981|taeyong.lee@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,Seoul

Branch

EuniceLiu

+852-2978-7472|eunice.liu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

GlobalTech:SmartphoneTAMupdate:raising1%/1%onAppleandAIsmartphones(UpdatesonJune20,2024)

TaiwanTechnology:Foldable,AIserverandsatelliteearly-stageproductcycles–initiateSZS,Chenbro,WNCatBuy(August22,2024)

ChinaSmartphones:Julyshipments+28%YoY;7M24+14%YoY(August28,2024)

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachsGlobalTech

Foldablephonessupplychainandstockideas

Exhibit1:Keybene?ciariesoffoldablephones

Segment

Assembly

Hinge

MIMparts

Connector

manufacturers

Camera

PCBBattery

UTGglass

Panel

Keybeneficiaries

SZS(3376.TW;Buy),Fositek□(6805.TW;Buy),□KHVatec(060720.KQ;□NCovered),S-connect(096630.KQ;□Notcovered),Gian(300709.SZ;Not

covered),□Kersen(603626.SS;Notcovered),Everwin

Precision□(300115.SZ;Notcovered),□Jarlly□(3548.TWO;□Notcovered).

Gian(300709.SZ;Notcovered),□NBTM(600114.SS;Notcovered),□Sunway□Communications(300316.SZ;Not

covered),□Auhui□Tatfook□Technology(300134.SZ;Notcovered).□Amphenol□(APH;Buy,coveredbyMarkDelaney)

O-flim□(002456.SZ;Buy),SunnyOptical(2382.HK;Neutral),SamsungElectromechanics(009150.KS;Buy),AAC(2018.HK;Buy);Largan

(3008.TW,Neutral);□andWillSemi(603501.SS;□Buy)□

Fastprint(002436.SZ;Notcovered),Avary□Holdings(002938.SZ;Notcovered)□

Sunwoda(300207.SZ;Notcovered),SamsungSDI(006400.KS;Buy).□

TriumphScience&Technology(600552.SS;Notcovered);Lens

Technology(300433.SZ;□Notcovered);WuhuTokenScience(300088.SZ;Notcovered)

BOE(000725.SZ;Buy),Visionox□(002387.SZ;Notcovered),TCL

Technology(00100.SZ;Notcovered),Tianma(000050.SZ;Notcovered)

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit2:TranssionTecnoPhantomUltimate2,tri-foldsmartphonesExhibit3:TranssionTecnoPhantomUltimate2,tri-foldsmartphones

_

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

18September20242

GoldmanSachsGlobalTech

Exhibit4:LenovoMotorolaRazr50,?ip-typefoldablephonesExhibit5:LenovoMotorolaRazr50Ultra,?ip-typefoldablephones

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

Exhibit6:HonorMagicVFlip,?ip-typefoldablephonesExhibit7:HonorMagicV2foldablephone

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

Exhibit8:HonorMagicV3,foldablephonesExhibit9:OPPOFindN3,?ip-typefoldablephones

_

Source:CompanydataSource:Companydata

nHingeasacriticalcomponentforfoldablephones.UnlikePChinges,smartphone

hingesaremorecomplicatedanddirectlyaffectpanelusagelife,requiringastrongdesigncapability.Thehingeofafoldablescreenneedstobethin,?exibleandstableinperformancewhilereliablytakingintoaccountcircuitconnections,wiring,and

heatdissipationinsidethefoldablescreen.Hingesalsoneedtohavehighrotationalaccuracyandfrictionalbalancetosupportthefoldingandrotationofthescreen.

18September20243

GoldmanSachsGlobalTech

Buy:SZS(potentialiPhonessupplier),Fositek(Huaweimajorsupplier).

nAcousticsandCameras:Foldablephonesrequireathinnerbodytomanagethe

totalthicknesswhenfolded,leadingtodemandforthinneracousticsandcameras.FoldablephonesbringopportunitytoAAC’shigh-endproducts,suchas

high-performancespeakerswithindustry-leadingthinnessbasedonAAC’s

loudspeakertechnology,innovativematerialapplications,andstructuraldesigns.Buy:AAC(slim&high-performancespeakers).

nPanel:Foldablephonesrequirehigh-end?exibleOLEDpanels,carrybetterASPsandofferahealthycompetitivelandscape.BOE’s?exibleOLEDshipmentsincreasedby25%+YoYin1H24,penetratingsmartphonebrandcustomers’foldablephone

modelsasthesolesupplier.Buy:BOE(?exibleOLED).

nPCB:Foldablephonesneed?exibleanddurablePCBstoaccommodatetheiruniquedesign,leadingtoPCBadjustmentsandpotentiallyleadingtospeci?cationupgradesandcontentgrowthforPCBs.

nBattery:Tosupportlargerdisplaysizesandmulti-taskingcapabilities,foldable

phonesdemandhigh-capacityandthinnerbatteries,leadingtobatteryinnovation.

nUTGglass:ThereliabilityofUTGglassisimportanttothethicknessofafoldable

phoneanduserexperience,drivingincreasingdemandforadvancedglasssolutions.

Product:upcomingfoldablephonesin2H24

Weseemorefoldablephoneslaunchingin2H24,andweremainpositiveona

continuouslyrisingpenetrationrateforfoldablephones,drivenbyimprovingsupply

chainintermsofmorecomponents,improvingyields,innovativedesign(e.g.tri-foldtoattractconsumers),andmoreaffordablepricesatscale.Pricingrangesarebasedon

differenttypesoffolding:(1)?iptypeatUS$685-1,096,(2)horizontalfoldingtypeatUS$1,233-1,918,and(3)tri-foldatUS$2,819.

_

Exhibit10:Pricecomparisonofrecentfoldablephones

Brand

Huawei

Honor

Honor

Samsung

Samsung

Huawei

Model

NovaFlip(12+256GB)

MagicVFlip(12+256GB)

MagicV3(12+256GB)

ZFold6(12+512GB)

ZFlip6(12+256GB)

MateXT(16+256GB)

Date

Aug-24

Jun-24

Jul-24

Jul-24

Jul-24

Sep-24

Price(Rmb)

5,288

4,999

8,999

13,999

7,999

19,999

Price(US$)

724

685

1,233

1,918

1,096

2,819

Flipfoldablephonesareincluded

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

WereviewedmajornewmodelsreleasedbyleadingChinesesmartphonemakersinSep:(1)HuaweiMateXT,tri-fold,and(2)TranssionPhantomUltimate2,tri-fold.Keyspeci?cationupgradesinclude:morecomplicatedhinges,largerdisplaysize,thinneracoustics,camerasandbattery.

HuaweimateXTwaslaunchedon11SepwithastartingpriceofRmb19,999(US$2,819)andonlinereservationsforthephoneexceeded6mn(link).Key

speci?cationsinclude:1)paneldisplayexpandedto10.2”,comparedto7.85”forthe

HuaweiMateX5,2)thicknessof3.6mmwhenfullyexpandedand12.8mmwhenfully

18September20244

GoldmanSachsGlobalTech

folded,3)panelusingUTGglass,4)50MP+12MP+12MPtriplerearcamera,5)hinge:

?rstinsideandoutsidebendingofthehingeinthekeytorsionchaintechnology,

reducingthethicknessofhinge,6)battery:5,600mAhextralargebatterycapacity,supporting66Wsuperchargingtechnology,and7)AIGCfeaturesincludingAIwordedits,informationconsultant,translation,photoediting.

TranssionTecnoPhantomUltimate2(conceptphone)waslaunchedon28Aug.Keyspeci?cationsinclude:1)thicknessat11mmwhenfolded(similartoHuaweiMateX5),2)batterythicknessat0.25mm,3)screenisequippedwith6.48”inchmaindisplay,4)internaldisplayexpandedto10”whenfullyunfolded,usingahigh-resolution3KOLEDpanelwith4:3aspectratio,atasimilarsizetotablet,5)rearcamera50MP+50MP

+50MPtriplecamera,and6)hinge:dual-hingemechanismenabling300,000foldsandunfolds.

Exhibit11:Smartphonemodelspipeline(announced)

SamsungGalaxy

GalaxyZFold6

(Launched)

_

2024

OnePlusAce3(Launched)

HonorX50GT(Launched)

HonorMagic6(Launched)

SamsungGalaxyS24(Launched)

OppoFindX7(Launched)

Realme12Pro(Launched)

vivoY100t(Launched)

HuaweiPocketS2

(Launched)

Xiaomi14Ultra(Launched)

XiaomiCivi4Pro

(Launched)

Meizu21Pro（Launched)

OnePlusAce3V

(Launched)

HonorMagic6RSR(Launched)

VivoXFold3/Pro

(Launched)

XiaomiRedmi

Turbo3

(Launched)

HuaweiP70(Launched)

vivoY200i(Launched)

OPPOA3Pro(Launched)

RealmeGTNeo6

SE

(Launched)

OPPOK12(Launched)

Meizu21Note（Launched)

OppoReno12(Launched)

RealmeGTNeo6

(Launched)

Honor200(Launched)

VivoX100(Launched)

VivoS19

(Launched)

OnePlusAce3Pro(Launched)

HonorMagicVFlip(Launched)

Motorazr50Ultra

AI

(Launched)

Motorazr50(Launched)

SamsungGalaxy

GalaxyZFlip5

(Launched)

MeizuMeilan20

（Launched)

XiaomiRedmiK70Ultra(Launched)

XiaomiMixFlip(Launched)

XiaomiMixFold4

(Launched)

ZTERedmagic9SPro(Launched)

RealmeGT6(Launched)

HonorMagicVs3

(Launched)

HonorMagicV3

(Launched)

OPPOA3(Launched)

Realme13Pro+(Launched)

HuaweiNovaFlip

(Launched)

MeizuLucky08

HonorX60

HuaweiNova13

HonorPlay9T(Launched)

XiaomiRedmi14R

(Launched)

VivoY300Pro(Launched)

HuaweiMateXT

(Launched)

iPhone16series

(Launched)

HonorX60(Launched)

Realme13Pro(Launched)

HuaweiMate70

OnePlus13

OppoFindX8Pro

OppoFindX8

VivoX200Pro

Xiaomi15Pro

Xiaomi15

XiaomiRedmiK80

ZTERedmagic

10Pro

RealmeGT7Pro

Honor100GT

JanFebMarAprilMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

AsofSep16,2024.

Source:Companydata

GlobalSmartphonemarketupdates

WeupdateourGlobalSmartphoneforecastsaswefactorinthelatestestimatesof

Transsion,Apple,Samsung,Xiaomi,LenovoandSony.Weraisedourglobalsmartphoneshipmentestimateby1%/0%in2024E/25Eto1.21bn/1.25bn,andstillexpectsingledigitunitgrowthof4%/3%respectivelyin2024/25E.

Wemaintainourcautiousviewonsmartphonedemand,notexpectingamajorrecoveryin2024Egivenstilllowersentimentonconsumerspending.Alongwithahigherbase,weexpectthe2H24shipmentYoY(-1%YoY)wouldbeslowerthan1H24(+10%YoY).

18September20245

GoldmanSachsGlobalTech

Onfoldablephones,weremainpositiveontheincreasingpenetrationoffoldable

phonessupportedbynewmodellaunches,improvingsupplychaintosupportmore

affordableprices(US$1,295in2023vs.US$1,136in2Q24)andinnovativedesign(e.g.tri-foldphones).Weexpect26m/43m/52munitstobeshippedin2024E/2025E/

2026E,implying45%/62%/22%YoYgrowthand2.2%/3.4%/4.1%ofpenetration

(vs.2.4%/3.8%/4.6%in2024-26Epreviously).Whilethereductioninourpenetration

rateoutlookismainlytore?ectthemissin2Q24(9%belowourestimates),we

continuetoexpectstrongsequentialgrowthin2H24(+156%HoH)drivenbybetterseasonalityandmoreinnovativefoldablephoneslaunchedin2H24.

Exhibit12:Globalsmartphoneestimatechange

Globalsmartphoneshipment

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027E

New

Globalsmartphoneshipment(munits)

1,164

1,211

1,247

1,282

1,299

YoY

-3%

4%

3%

3%

1%

Old

Globalsmartphoneshipment(munits)

1,164

1,202

1,248

1,271

1,282

YoY

-3%

3%

4%

2%

1%

Newvs.Old

Shipmentchange

-

9

(1)

11

17

Shipmentchange%

0%

1%

0%

1%

1%

GlobalfoldablephoneshipmentNew

Penetration

1.6%

2.2%

3.4%

4.1%

4.9%

Old

Penetration

1.6%

2.4%

3.8%

4.6%

5.3%

Newvs.Old

Change

0ppts

-0.3ppts

-0.4ppts

-0.6ppts

-0.4ppts

Source:IDC,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

_

18September20246

GoldmanSachs

Smartphones:+4%/+3%YoYin2024E/2025E

Exhibit13:

_

GlobalSmartphonemarketopportunity

(Shipmentsinmunits)(RevenuesinmUSD)

OurBottomupmethod

Globalsmartphoneshipments

=sumofshipmentbybrand

Globalsmartphonerevenues=sumofrevenuesbybrand

Globalsmartphonerevenues=shipmentsxASP

Smartphoneshipmentsbybrands(2024E)

Others33%

Apple19%

Samsung19%

Lenovo5%

Xiaomi

Transsion14%

9%

DevelopedmarketsYoY

9%

0%

-7%-5%

-7%

20212022

20232024E2025E

USYoY

12%

0%

-8%-7%

-6%

2021202220232024E2025E

ChinaYoY

4%

1%0%

-5%

-13%

2021202220232024E2025E

BRICsYoY

7%

1%

2%

-4%

-12%

2021202220232024E2025E

RestofemergingmktYoY

9%

6%7%

0%

-14%

2021202220232024E2025E

Shipmentsbyvendor

Globalsmartphoneshipments

Apple

SamsungXiaomi

Transsion

LenovoZTE

SonyHTC

Asus

Others

ShipmentsYoY

Global

Apple

SamsungXiaomi

Transsion

LenovoZTE

SonyHTC

Asus

Others

ShipmentsQoQ

Global

Apple

SamsungXiaomi

TranssionLenovo

ZTE

SonyHTC

Asus

Others

Shipmentsmarketshare

Apple

SamsungXiaomi

TranssionLenovo

ZTE

SonyHTC

Asus

Others

Revenusbyvendor

Globalsmartphonerevenues

Apple

SamsungXiaomi

TranssionLenovo

ZTE

SonyHTC

Asus

Others

Shipmentsbyregion

GlobalsmartphoneshipmentsDevelopedmarkets

CanadaJapanUSA

WesternEurope

BRICsBrazilIndiaChinaRussia

Restofemergingmarkets

RestofAsia/PacificRestofCEE

RestofLatinAmericaMiddleEast&Africa

ShipmentsYoY

Global

DevelopedmarketsUSA

WesternEurope

BRICsIndiaChina

Restofemergingmarkets

ShipmentsQoQ

Global

DevelopedmarketsUSA

WesternEurope

BRICsIndiaChina

Restofemergingmarkets

Shipmentsmarketshare

Global

DevelopedmarketsUSA

WesternEurope

BRICsIndiaChina

Restofemergingmarkets

Foldablephonesshipment

GlobalfoldablephonesshipmentPenetrationrate

Xiaomi

Transsion

Lenovo

SamsungOthers

1Q23

268

5560301511 1 00.00.195

1Q23

-15%

-2%

-20%

-24%

-13%

-7%-44%-32%-18%-23%-15%

1Q23

-11%-23% 1% -8% -8% 6%-22%-39%-52%-30%-11%

1Q23

21%22%11% 6% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%35%

1Q23

123,317

58,126

28,077

7,416

1,705

2,449

222

251

4

78

24,990

1Q23

268

67

2

8

32

26

109

10

31

65

4

92

32

11

19

30

1Q23

-15%-13% -13%-10%-14%-16%-12%-16%

1Q23

-11%-19%-21%-17%

-9% 4%-11%-6%

1Q23

100%25%12%10%41%11%24%34%

1Q23

2.6

1.0%0.10.0

0.01.70.9

2Q23

26845533325111

10.00.1100

2Q23

-7% -2%-16%-17%34%

-14%-21%-28%160% -7%-6%

2Q23

0%-20%-12% 8%64% 0%33%47%81% -3%5%

2Q23

17%20%12% 9% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%37%

2Q23

107,297

44,433

22,889

7,125

3,097

2,763

228

343

8

89

26,322

2Q23

268

57

2

7

25

23

112

8

34

66

4

99

31

11

22

35

2Q23

-7%-15%-20% -9% -3% -3% -2%-5%

2Q23

0%-16%-22%-11%

2%10%1%8%

2Q23

100%

21%

9%

9%

42%

13%

25%

37%

2Q23

2.50.9%0.00.0

0.21.01.2

3Q23

30454594226122

00.00.1108

3Q23

0% 4%-9% 3%35%

11%51%-58%-14%-40%-4%

3Q23

13%21%12%27% 3%14%25%-29%-15%15%9%

3Q23

18%20%14% 9% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%36%

3Q23

129,007

55,768

28,112

8,526

3,292

3,044

302

294

7

94

29,569

3Q23

304

67

2

7

33

25

128

9

44

67

8

109

35

13

24

37

3Q23

0%-3%-1%-5%-5%1%-7%10%

3Q23

13%18%33% 9%

14%30%1%10%

3Q23

100%

22%

11%

8%

42%

14%

22%

36%

3Q23

7.52.5%0.10.0

0.45.31.6

4Q23

3248053412813 2 00.00.1

106

4Q23

8%11%-10%23%68%

32%

61%

-27%

43%

-52%

-1%

4Q23

7%48%-10% -3% 8% 9%24%13%94%-39%-2%

4Q23

25%16%13% 9% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%33%

4Q23

161,336

86,526

23,103

9,116

3,399

3,351

337

331

9

56

35,107

4Q23

324

85

3

8

42

31

131

11

37

74

9

109

37

13

21

38

4Q23

8%2%4%0%

9%26%

1%12%

4Q23

7%26%27%23%

2%-15%10%

0%

4Q23

100%26%13%

10%40%12%23%34%

4Q23

5.51.7%0.10.0

0.62.02.8

1Q24

300

53

60

41

29

13

1

0

0.00.1104

1Q24

12%-5%

0%34%85%

23%58%-21%-22% 6%9%

1Q24

-7%

-34%13% 0% 1% -1%-23%-33%-74%56%-2%

1Q24

18%20%14%10% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%34%

1Q24

130,770

55,483

29,447

9,031

3,374

2,965

256

192

3

101

29,919

1Q24

300

65

2

7

30

25

123

12

34

69

8

112

37

12

24

40

1Q24

12%-4%-4%

-3% 13%12%

6%22%

1Q24

-7% -24%-27%-19%

-5%-8%-6%

3%

1Q24

100%22%10%

8%41%11%23%37%

1Q24

3.51.2%0.0

0.0

0.51.01.9

2Q24E

292

45

54

42

26

14

2

0

0.00.1110

2Q24E

9%

1% 2%28%1%

29%22%-40% 0% 0%10%

2Q24E

-3%

-14%-10% 4%-11% 5% 2% 11%133% -9%6%

2Q24E

15%18%14% 9% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0%37%

2Q24E

114,733

44,949

22,690

8,827

3,099

3,132

217

292

3

67

31,457

2Q24E

292

57

2

7

25

24

123

11

35

72

6

112

35

12

22

42

2Q24E

9%0%0%

1%

10%3%

9%12%

2Q24E

-3%

-12%-19%

-7%

0%2%4%

0%

2Q24E

100%20%

8% 8%42%12%25%38%

2Q24E

3.91.3%

0.00.0

0.60.62.6

3Q24E

296

5457422915 2 10.00.197

3Q24E

-2%-1%

-4%

1%12%

23% 0%30% 0% 0%-10%

3Q24E

1%

19% 5% 0%14%10% 2%54%-15%15%-11%

3Q24E

18%19%14%10% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0%33%

3Q24E

131,328

56,528

27,963

9,243

3,779

3,791

302

447

2

91

29,181

3Q24E

296

62

2

7

30

23

133

11

46

68

8

101

39

14

11

37

3Q24E

-2% -8%-9%

-9%

5%6%

2%

-7%

3Q24E

1%

8%20%

-2%

8%33%

-6%

-9%

3Q24E

100% 21%10%

8%

45%16%23% 34%

3Q24E

9.93.3%

0.40.1

0.75.53.2

4Q24E

322

8455422914 2 10.00.295

4Q24E

-1%5%

3%4%3%

9% 0% 25%-40%110%-11%

4Q24E

9%

56%-3% 0% 0%-4%24% 9%17%29%-3%

4Q24E

26%17%13% 9% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0%29%

4Q24E

174,256

95,221

26,090

9,636

3,618

3,519

337

387

2

113

35,334

4Q24E

322

79

4

9

38

29

134

13

39

73

10

109

38

13

20

38

4Q24E

-1%

-6%-8%

-8%

3%4%

-1%

0%

4Q24E

9%

28%29%

24%

1%-16%

8%

8%

4Q24E

100%

25%12%

9%

42%12%

23%

34%

4Q24E

9.12.8%

0.30.1

0.73.34.8

Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

18September2024

GlobalTech

2021

1,360

236

272

191

82

51

9

3

0

1

515

2021

6%

16% 6%29%36%51%35% 7%-44%-50%-9%

2021

2022

1,206

226

262

153

73

45

5

3

0

1

438

2022

-11%

-4% -4%-20%-12%-12%-36% 0%-53%-14%-15%

2022

2023

1,164

234

226

146

95

47

6

2

0

0

409

2023

-3%

4%-14% -5%31% 4% 3%-38%27%-33%-7%

2023

2024E

1,211

235

226

167

112

56

6

2

0

0

405

2024E

4%

0% 0%15%18%21%14% -4%-19%22%-1%

2024E

2025E

1,247

244

234

180

132

56

6

2

0

0

393

2025E

3%

4% 4% 7%17% -1%-10% -4% 4%-11%-3%

2025E

2026E

1,282

258

238

189

143

56

5

2

0

0

390

2026E

3%

6% 2% 5% 9% 0%-10% -4% 0%-10%-1%

2026E

2027

263

241

198

150

55

5

2

0

0

385

2027

2% 1% 4% 5% -1%-10% -5% 0%-10%-1%

2027

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027E

17%

19%

20%

19%

20%

20%

20%

20%22%19%19%19%19%19%14%13%13%14%14%15%15% 6%6%8%9%11%11%12% 4%4%4%5%4%4%4% 1%0%0%1%0%0%0% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%

38%

36%

35%

33%

32%

30%

30%

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027

527,848

500,272

520,957

551,085

584,388

617,276

635,07

229,778

225,372

244,852

252,181

270,787

295,416

309,112

96,118

101,235

102,181

106,189

112,148

114,328

115,522

10,904

10,657

11,160

11,634

11,665

11,401

11,939

5,000

5,074

6,162

5,995

5,438

5,517

6,703

2,905

2,832

3,312

3,555

2,795

2,724

3,186

203

172

240

268

181

154

214

184

281

431

370

181

275

421

1

2

2

1

1

2

2

71

50

68

84

61

43

59

182,683

154,597

152,550

170,806

181,131

187,416

187,915

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027

1,360

1,206

1,164

1,211

1,247

1,282

318

297

276

263

263

260

10

10

9

9

9

99

37

34

30

29

29

29

29

153

140

131

123

123

123

121

118

113

106

101

101

98

95

565

499

479

515

521

526

43

41

38

46

47

48

48

161

144

146

154

159

164

164

330

286

271

282

283

282

285

31

28

25

33

32

32

32

477

411

409

434

463

497

168

142

135

149

158

166

173

56

46

48

51

52

54

55

91

85

86

77

92

111

117

162

136

140

156

161

166

171

2021

2022

2023

2024E

2025E

2026E

2027

6%-11%-3%4%3%3%

9%-7%-7%-5%0%-1%-

12%-8%-7%-6%0%0%-2%

6%-5%-6%-5%0%-3%-3%

2%-12%-4%7%1%1%

7%-10%1%6%3%3%0%

1%-13%-5%4%0%0%1%

9%

-14%0%6%7%7%

2021

202220232024E2025E