中國(guó)煙草經(jīng)濟(jì)分析-復(fù)旦大學(xué)課程

2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管1

AnalysisonChineseTobaccoEconomymid-termreviewcopingstrategyspecificmeasuresfeasibilityanalysisTobaccoconsumptionontheactualimpactofthenationaleconomyMarketfailurenegativeexternalityNaturalmonopolygoodsLackofflexibility2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管22010-5-313中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管3TheimpactoftobaccoconsumptionExpandtheincomegapIncreasetheeconomiclossesMedicalcostsHumanCapitalTotaleconomyDoharmtopeople'shealthandpublichealthConclusionTheeffectoftobaccoindustryonthenationaleconomyisnegative,themoreprospersofthetobaccoindustry,themoredamagewillbedonetothenationaleconomy.2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管4TaxadjustmentDemandreductionSmokingcontrolconfigurationtobaccocopingstrategy---configurationtobaccoThereformdirection:2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管5HealtheducationSmokingcontrolmeasuresDirectcontrolTaxadjustmentcopingstrategy---configurationtobacco2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管6HealtheducationLimitcigaretteadvertisingandpromotionalactivitiesSmokingcontrolmeasuresBansmokinginpublicplacesandworksiteForbiddentosellcigarettestominorsDirectcontrolReformoftobaccomonopolysystemTaxadjustmentLevytobaccosurtaxDiscussionThecostofcontrol—benifitanalysisThetobaccotaxanalysis2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管7Thecostofcontrol—benifitanalysisThecostofcontrol——reduceeconomiccosts、increaseopportunitycost

ReducecigarettesalesVSSlashjobs?

increasethepriceofcigarettesVSincreasesmuggledcigarettes?Thebenefitofcontrol——Economicperformanceovertheeconomiccosts

significantlyfiredanger、occupationalhazard、healthinsurance…2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管8IncreasetobaccotaxanalysisDemandreductionoftobaccoTobaccoconsumptionreductionofsocialharmIncreasethequotaoftax2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管9Bansmuggledcigarettes!Demandreductionoftobacco一包煙提價(jià)10%預(yù)計(jì)平均可使香煙需求量在高收入國(guó)家減少約4%,而在中低收入國(guó)家可減少約8%,因?yàn)檩^低的收入往往使人們對(duì)價(jià)格變化更加敏感[1]。兒童和青少年比年長(zhǎng)的成人對(duì)提價(jià)更加敏感,因此這一干預(yù)措施將對(duì)他們產(chǎn)生重大影響[2]。2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管10[1]Buck,David,C.Godfrey,M.Raw,andM.Sutton.1995.TobaccoandJobs.York,U.K.:SocietyfortheStudyofAddictionandtheCentreforHealthEconomics,UniversityofYork.[2]Chaloupka,F.J.,andH.wechsler.1997.“Price,TobaccoControlPoliciesandSmokingAmongYoungAdults.”JournalofHealthEconomics16(3):359-73.FeasibilityanalysisTheeffectofbansmokingindoorTheeffectofbanteenagersmokingBancigaretteadvertisingandpromotionalactivitiesTheeffectoftheadvertisementagainsttobaccoconsumptionIncreasetheeffectoftobaccotax2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管111.1Theeffectofbansmokingindoor二手煙患者自主選擇權(quán)回歸

室內(nèi)吸煙率及吸煙量大幅降低建議：望出臺(tái)相關(guān)法律文件加以支撐，不具法律強(qiáng)制性的《公共場(chǎng)所及室內(nèi)禁煙條例》無(wú)法有效約束煙民！2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管121.2Theeffectofbanteenagersmoking限制了青少年對(duì)香煙的可及性，增加了吸煙的成本，控制了吸煙人數(shù)。關(guān)于禁止青少年吸煙效果的研究表明:只有這些措施及相關(guān)的法律、法規(guī)被全面、徹底地執(zhí)行時(shí),才能取得顯著的效果。建議:加大執(zhí)法力度（監(jiān)管、行政處罰）2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管131.3BancigaretteadvertisingVS

Advertisementagainsttobacco全面禁止煙草廣告可以有效地降低煙草的消費(fèi)反煙廣告利用媒體提高大眾對(duì)吸煙危害的認(rèn)知,也可以明顯地降低煙草消費(fèi)。建議：內(nèi)外一致！2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管141.3BancigaretteadvertisingVS

AdvertisementagainsttobaccoSaffer和Chaloupa的研究表明增加15%的反煙廣告時(shí)間可以使煙草的消費(fèi)量降低約4%。一些區(qū)域性的反煙廣告的效果分析如美國(guó)的California、Massachusetts以及芬蘭、希臘、英國(guó)、挪威、以色列、奧地利、加拿大等國(guó)的研究均表明反煙廣告可以降低煙草消費(fèi)[3]。[3]HenrySaffer:Tobaccoadvertisingandpromotion.TobaccoControlinDevelopingCountries.OxfordPress.2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管151.4Increasetheeffectoftobaccotax中國(guó)(包括臺(tái)灣)、土耳其、巴布亞新幾內(nèi)亞、以及南非的研究表明:中低收入國(guó)家的香煙的需求對(duì)價(jià)格的敏感性要高于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,需求彈性的值大都集中于-0.5～-1.0之間[4～5]。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家對(duì)香煙的需求彈性的研究比較多,美國(guó)、加拿大、澳大利亞、日本、英國(guó)以及許多西歐國(guó)家的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的香煙的需求彈性的值集中于一個(gè)較窄的范圍內(nèi),并且大都集中于-0.25～-0.5之間[3]2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管16[3]HenrySaffer:Tobaccoadvertisingandpromotion.TobaccoControlinDevelopingCountries.OxfordPress.[4]毛正中,蔣家林1“卷煙需求及其影響因素:一個(gè)斷面資料模型”[J].中國(guó)衛(wèi)生事業(yè)管理,1997;5:2272229.[5]毛正中,蔣家林等1“卷煙需求與價(jià)格政策”[J].中國(guó)衛(wèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì),1997;6:50～52.

aillusion?

thesubstitutesoftobccotheperspectiveoftobcco2024/12/1中醫(yī)大07衛(wèi)管17參考文獻(xiàn)[1]Buck,David,C.Godfrey,M.Raw,andM.Sutton.1995.TobaccoandJobs.York,U.K.:SocietyfortheStudyofAddictionandtheCentreforHealthEconomics,UniversityofYork.[2]Chaloupka,F.J.,andH.wechsler.1997.“Price,TobaccoControlPoliciesandSmokingAmongYoungAdults.”JournalofHealthEconomics16(3):359-73.[3]HenrySaffer:Tobaccoadvertisingandpromotion.TobaccoControlinDevelopingCountries.