SARS對(duì)中國(guó)物流影響研究分析報(bào)告

1、SARS寸中國(guó)物流阻礙研究報(bào)告(SARS and Chi na Logistics)Part I Econo mic ImpactsIn troducti onThe rece nt outbreak of Severe Acute RespiratorySyndrome (SARS) has threatened short-term growth prospects in Asia.As of 5 May 2003, SARShas infected more than 6,500 peopleworldwide, and caused mounting concern. A number

2、 of East andSoutheast Asian economies, including PeoplesRepublic of China (PRC); Hong Kong, China; Singapore;Taipei, China; and Viet Nam have bee n put un dercon siderable stra in. The epidemic has also affected other econo mies,although to a lesser exte nt. Some positive developments and improvedpu

3、blic health measures in recent weeks have added weight to arguments thatSARS, although serious, will cause on ly a temporaryshock to econo mic growth. However, the implicatio nsstemmi ng from SARS exte nd bey ond the short-term horiz on.The impact of SARS, and reacti ons to it, raise manyquesti ons.

4、 Two are particularly importa nt:(i) Why has atte nti on to SARS bee n so prominent give nitsrelatively low morbidity and mortality?(ii) How should gover nments deal with un expectedshocks related to the outbreak of con tagious diseases?This brief assesses the econo mic impact of SARS in anu mber of

5、 East and Southeast Asia n econo mies and explores theseissues.Short-term Econo mic Impact of SARS Chann els through whichthe Impact of SARS is FeltIn the short term, SARSmainly affects economic growthby reduc ing dema nd:(i) Con sumer con fide nee has dramatically decli ned in a nu mberof econo mie

6、s, lead ing to a sig nifica nt reducti on in private consumpti on spe nding. Much of the impact stems from the great uncerta inty and fear gen erated by SARS. People have opted tostay at hometo reduce the probability of in fecti on.(ii) Service exports, i n particular tourism-related exports, havebe

7、e n hard hit.(iii)In vestme nt is affected by reduced overall dema nd,heighte ned un certa in ties, and in creased risks. Excesscapacity will emerge or in crease. Furthermore, foreig n in vestme nt inflow may be delayed or reduced in reacti on to SARS.(iv)While in creased gover nment spe nding will

8、mitigate theimpact, the ability of governments to revive economies facingwidespread reducti ons in private spe nding islimited. Although SARS has affected every comp onent of aggregatedema nd, private con sumptio n has particularly borne the brunt of theimpact. Services in volv ing face-to-face con

9、tact havebeen dealt a severe blow by the widespread fear of infection throughsuch in teracti ons. Tourism, tran sportati on (particularly airli nes), andretaili ng have bee n the hardest hit sectors as con sumers shun shops,restaura nts, and en terta inment venu es; and travelers can cel trips. Asvi

10、sitor arrivals have dropped, hotel occupa ncy rates have fallensignificantlyin Hong Kong, China and in Singapore.The reducti on of hotel rates has not bee n able to lure travelers back.Airli nes such as Cathay Pacific have can celed a large nu mber offlights. Tourism acco unts for over 9%of GDPn Eas

11、t Asia and about11%in Southeast Asia. The SARS-i nduced stress on this in dustry willbe felt by other industries in the two sub-regions. While the East andSoutheast Asia n sub-regi ons have bee n the most affected, the impactof SARS has spread elsewhere, through(i) the spread of the virus and the di

12、sease itself;(ii) reducti on in import dema nd by Asia n econo mies,especially for tourism-related services; and(iii)weake ned con sumer and in vestor sen time nt because ofin creased un certa in ty.One factor that might offset this n egative impact isthe rebound of privatespending when SARSs brough

13、t undercon trol. Con sumers may compe nsate for their reducti on in consumptio n by subseque ntlyincreasing their spending. While domestic consumptioncould quickly cha nge once con fide nee resumes, it may takea Ion ger period for foreig n travelers and in vestors to return.The Impact of SARSMacroec

14、 ono mic Simulatio nsThe impact of SARS critically depe nds on:(i) the serious ness of SARS(ii) the duration of SARS(iii) the structure of an econo my, particularly theimporta nee of service in dustries in GDPThe recently published Asian Development Outlook 2003forecasts (ADB 2003) reflect an assump

15、tio n that the mostinten sive impact will be confined to 2 mon ths. Theimpleme ntati on of effective containment measures aga instSARSin a number of economies since March has lent support to thisperspective. However, many questi ons rema in unan swered about thedevelopme nt and n ature of SARS, andt

16、hese unknown factors complicate an alysis of itsimpact. In order to allow for these lacunae, two scenarios are considered here. One assumes that SARS will have a serious impact in thesecond quarter of 2003, and the other assumes that it will have a majorimpact in the second and third quarters of 200

17、3. Give n the un certa inties in volved, we n eed to mon itor and evaluate developme nts closely,and to be prepared to revisit the estimates as circumsta nces cha nge.Furthermore, any sce nario desig n will in volve adegree of arbitrarinessand judgment. The results are thusin dicative rather tha n d

18、efi nitive.It is also assumed that the initial impact will mainly be throughreduced dema nd for services. The reducti on in service sector growthis the n tran slated to an equivale nt reduction in autonomousconsumption expenditure,which isused as the in put for the see narios. The macroec ono mic si

19、mulati onsuse the Oxford Econo mic Forecast ing model (OEF). The results showthat GDP growth in East and Southeast Asian economies is likely to bereduced by around 0.2-1.8 perce ntage poi nts in 2003 if SARS persistsfor a quarter in in dividual econo mies. If the impact of SARS extendsinto the third

20、 quarter of 2003, GDPgrowth is likely to be reduced by 0.5to 4.0 perce ntage points in in dividual econo mies (Table 1). A reduction in GDP growth of this magn itude will mean I arge losses in in comeand output. The estimated in come loss ran ges from US$12.3-28.4 billion for East and Southeast Asia as a whole un derthe two sce narios. Of particular concern is the factthat SARSwill not only induce hardship for many, but also inten sify theproblems faced b