采礦業(yè)2021：以卓越的財務(wù)狀況為基礎(chǔ)迎接變革性機遇與長期價值增長

1、PwC | Mine 2021Executive summary歷經(jīng)風(fēng)暴，前40大礦業(yè)公司2020年財務(wù)狀況卓越無論怎樣衡量，采礦業(yè)都是在新冠疫情大流行經(jīng)濟危機最不利的情況下，以卓越的財務(wù)和運營狀態(tài)崛起的少數(shù)行業(yè)之一。實際上，2020年是采礦業(yè)的標志性一年。與2019年相比，凈利潤增長了15，貨幣資金增長了40，市值增長了近三分之二。對于全球最大的礦業(yè)公司來說，情況將會變得更好。我們對2021年的預(yù)測表明，前40大礦業(yè)公司的收入和 EBITDA(息稅折舊攤銷前利潤)水平都將在本報告覆蓋的過去18年中達到最高紀錄，而凈利潤也將達到第二高紀錄。有了如此預(yù)期的好成績，一個關(guān)鍵的問題就出現(xiàn) 了：礦業(yè)企

2、業(yè)如何使用接近創(chuàng)紀錄水平的自由現(xiàn)金流？前40大礦業(yè)公司從未有過如此強大的財務(wù)狀況來為未來做出大膽的決策。而目前未來已經(jīng)清晰可見：世界正處于向低碳、可持續(xù)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟過渡的時代當中。十個最大的經(jīng)濟體中有八個設(shè)定了雄心勃勃的凈零排放目標。許多全球公司，包括前40大礦業(yè)公司中的幾家，也做出了類似的承諾。將環(huán)境、社會和治理（ESG）問題作為組織戰(zhàn)略的核心，使大型礦業(yè)企業(yè)有一條令人信服的途徑來建立信任，成長并產(chǎn)生持續(xù)的成果。在疫情大流行高峰期以及從長遠來看，對ESG評分較高的公司的表現(xiàn)要優(yōu)于大盤。積極接受ESG政策的公司吸引著越來越多的投資者。鑒于ESG方法的重要性和價值，可持續(xù)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略成為我們今年報告中

3、的一個主線。例如，除了潛在的財務(wù)業(yè)績回報外，ESG的考慮也正在成為并購交易成功的基礎(chǔ)。礦業(yè)企業(yè)可能會繼續(xù)從動力煤遷移，但他們需要探索用ESG導(dǎo)向的業(yè)務(wù)取代該收 入來源。哪些收購目標將滿足對推動向綠色全球經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型資源的不斷增長的需求？據(jù)國際能源署（International Energy Agency）稱，到2040 年，能源部門對清潔能源技術(shù)必不可少的關(guān)鍵礦產(chǎn)的需求可能會增加六倍。除了對環(huán)境的期望之外，ESG還是礦業(yè)公司成為本地和區(qū)域社區(qū)更加積極和有益的參與者的框架。前四十大礦業(yè)公司通過稅收和租金為社會做出了重大貢獻，但是，要使這些支出透明化還有一定差距。礦業(yè)公司應(yīng)該自豪地報告所繳納的稅款和這

4、些支出所帶來的社會效益，例如為醫(yī)院、學(xué)校及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改善提供資金，并應(yīng)與地方政府一道協(xié)助制定稅收政策。盡管前40大礦業(yè)公司以靈活和決心應(yīng)對了疫情，但他們不能掉以輕心。新變種的病毒使得第二，第三和第四波疫情不斷涌現(xiàn)，為控制疫情傳播而采取的諸多措施仍在施行。工人越來越提倡靈活和遠程的工作安排，這將成為新的常態(tài)。當前有關(guān)工作場所政策的決策，包括數(shù)字化和自動化的作用，將重塑采礦業(yè)的未來。新冠疫情的挑戰(zhàn)、全球不同地區(qū)感染率的不確定性所體現(xiàn)的新常態(tài)以及環(huán)境可持續(xù)性造成了動蕩的格局，為采礦業(yè)帶來了真正的變革性的機遇。憑借其出色的財務(wù)狀況，前40大礦業(yè)公司比其他領(lǐng)域的大多數(shù)公司占據(jù)了更有利的地位，可以朝著實現(xiàn)長

5、期價值和增長的方向發(fā)展。現(xiàn)在是礦業(yè)企業(yè)采取行動的時候了。PwC | Mine 2021Resumen ejecutivoLas 40 principales empresas mineras han salido de las tormentas de 2020 en excelente forma financiera.Desde toda perspectiva relevante, minera es una de las pocas industrias que emergi de lo peor de lacrisis econmica producto de la Pandemia

6、 COVID-19 en excelente forma financiera y operativa. De hecho, 2020 fue un ao emblemtico para el sector minero. En comparacin con el ao 2019, la utilidad neta aument un 15%, el efectivo disponible aument un 40% y la capitalizacin de mercado aument casi dos tercios. Y se espera que la situacin de las

7、 empresas mineras ms grandes del mundo mejore an ms.Nuestro pronstico para 2021 indica que los 40 mayores empresas mineras reportarn niveles rcord de ingresos y EBITDA (en los 18 aos de historia de este informe) y la segunda utilidad neta ms alta.Con tanta expectativa de xito, surge una pregunta cla

8、ve: qu harn los mineros con sus niveles casi rcord de flujo de efectivo libre?Las 40 mayores empresas mineras jams han estado en una posicin financiera tan slida para dar un giro amplio y audaz hacia el futuro. Y el futuro ya es visible hoy: el mundo se encuentra en medio de una era de transicin a b

9、ajas emisiones de carbono hacia una economa sostenible. Ocho de las diez economas ms grandes se han fijado ambiciosos objetivos hace cero emisiones netas. Muchas empresas globales, incluidas varias de las 40 mayores mineras, han asumido compromisos similares.Hacer que las cuestiones ambientales, soc

10、iales y de gobierno (ESG) sean el ncleo de la estrategia organizacional les brinda a las grandes mineras un camino convincente para generar confianza, crecer y producir resultados sostenidos. Las empresas que puntan ms alto en ESG superaron al mercado en general durante el pico de la pandemia, y tam

11、bin a largo plazo. Los inversionistas se sienten cada vezms atrados por empresas que adoptan activamente las polticas de ESG.Dada la importancia y el valor de los enfoques de ESG, las estrategias de sostenibilidad son un hilo conductor de nuestro informe de este ao. Por ejemplo, ms all de sus posibl

12、es resultados de desempeo financiero, las consideraciones ESG se estn considerando fundamentales para el xito enlos negocios. Si bien es probable que las mineras continen alejndose del carbn trmico, deben explorar la posibilidad de reemplazar ese flujo de ingresos con negocios orientados a ESG. Qu o

13、bjetivos de adquisicin satisfarn la creciente demanda de los recursos que estn impulsando el cambio hacia una economa global ms verde?Segn la Agencia Internacional de Energa, la necesidad del sector energtico de minerales crticos que son esenciales para las tecnologas de energa limpia podra aumentar

14、 hasta seis veces para el ao 2040.Junto con las expectativas ambientales, ESG tambin es un marco para que las empresas mineras sean un participante ms activo y benfico en las comunidades locales y regionales. Los Top 40 hacen una contribucin significativa a la sociedad a travs de impuestos y arrenda

15、mientos. Pero tienen que acortar la brecha para ser transparentes sobre estos pagos. Las empresas mineras deben estar orgullosas de informar los impuestos que pagan y los beneficios sociales producto de estos desembolsos, como la financiacin de hospitales, mejoras de infraestructura y escuelas, y de

16、ben unirse a los gobiernos locales para ayudar a crear polticas fiscales.Aunque los Top 40 respondieron a la pandemia con agilidad y determinacin, no pueden permitirse bajar la guardia. La segunda, tercera y cuarta oleadas del virus, impulsadas por nuevas variantes, continan surgiendo y muchas de la

17、s medidas tomadas para controlar su propagacin siguen vigentes. Los trabajadores abogan cada vez ms por acuerdos de trabajo flexibles y remotos como nueva normalidad. Las decisiones que se tomen hoy sobre las polticas en el lugar de trabajo, incluido el papel de la digitalizacin y la automatizacin,

18、darn forma al futuro de la minera en los prximos aos.Los desafos de COVID, y la nueva normalidad manifestada por la incertidumbre sobre las tasas de infeccin en diferentes partes del mundo, y la sostenibilidad ambiental han creado un panoramavoltil que presenta una oportunidad para un cambio genuino

19、 y transformador en la industria minera.Gracias a su excelente posicin financiera, las Top 40 estn mejor situadas que la mayora de las empresas en otros campos para pivotar hacia el valor y el crecimiento a largo plazo. Ahora es el momento de que las mineras acten.PwC | Mine 2021Financial returns ar

20、e strongFinancial metricsMarket capitalisation up 64% toUS$1.46tnRevenue (excluding trading) up 4% (US$20bn) toUS$545bnNet profit up 15% toUS$70bnCopper was the mineral of the moment, contributingUS$122bn to group revenue,and the average price of copper is predicted to increaseby 40% in 2021ESG is t

21、he best bet for growthCompanies with higher ESG ratings (from MSCI) had anaverage total shareholder return of 34% over the past 3 years10% higher than the general market indexTax transparency39% of mining and metals company CEOs are extremely concerned about tax policy uncertainty, more than double

22、the number last year (18%)Only 30% of the Top 40embraced tax transparency reporting in 2020Can ESG alter M&A patterns?Fewer coal assets are being purchased: acquisitions fell from5 in 2018 to 0 in 2019 and 2020,evidencing the shift towards net zeroCOVID-19 impactWith the future of the pandemic uncer

23、tain, miners must switch to longer-term strategic thinking and integrate recent initiatives, such as remote work and operations, to create and deliver a holistic transformation on an accelerated timeline.6 PwC | Mine 2021ESG: The best opportunity for growth6 | PwC Mine 2021Although many of the Top 4

24、0 understand the importance of ESG, some still see it as just another box to tick. But ESG represents one of the mining industrys most significant opportunities for long- term value creation, building trustand sustainable growth. Miners need to engage with their stakeholders and start to bake ESG in

25、to the core of their strategies.Globally, ESG has been a growing discussion point for the past three years. But since the pandemic began, the impetus to set the world on a more sustainable footing has taken on new urgency. Many indicators signal an inflection point. One of the most compelling: eight

26、 of the worlds ten biggest economies (rising to nine if the US Congress passes the CLEAN Future Act) have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century. Customers, employees, communities, governments and suppliersnow expect companies to create value that is sustainable.For the worlds Top

27、40 miners, ESG means much more than a social licence to operate, more than just the right thing to do. This set of considerations presents an opportunity to play a leading role in the transition to a low-carbon global economy and, in doing so, carve out apath for their own long-term value creation.

28、Three reasons stand out for why the Top 40 should have ESG at the top of their growth agenda: increased shareholder value, product and operations differentiation, and improved access to capital.Increased shareholder valueCompanies with higher ESG ratings outperformed the broader market during the pe

29、ak of the COVID-19 crisis. These companies also demonstrated stronger performance in the longer term.Companies with outstanding ESG ratings delivered 34% average total shareholder return over the past three yearsten percentage points higher than the general market index,according to an analysis publ

30、ished by investment research firm MSCI.Exhibit 1: Relative performance of companies with ESG focusQ1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 18Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 19Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 20Q1 211401301201101009080 ACWI SRI Standard (Large+Mid Cap) ACWI ESG FOCUS Standard (Large+Mid Cap) ACWI Standard (Large+Mid Cap)Source: S&P Ca

31、pital IQ, MSCINote: Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI)s All Country World Index (ACWI) ESG Leaders Index includes companies with high ESG ratings in developed and emerging markets. The ACWI SRI Index comprises mainly the same companies but excludes those with products that have a negative social or

32、 environmental impact.Coal India has started diversification into renewable energy, investing US$763m into solar power projects as a step towards its net-zero commitment.Polymetal International secured a sustainability- linked US$125m loan from Socit Gnrale to finance eligible projects that will hel

33、p the gold miner achieve its goals and actions against climate change.Australias Port of Newcastle, the worlds busiest coal export port, recently locked in US$318m in a sustainability-linked loan, which deliversa reduced borrowing rate if the port fulfils its environmental and social commitments.Pro

34、duct and operations differentiationIncreasingly, companies are looking to drive long-term strategic value by incorporating low-carbon inputs intotheir products and services. And many are willing to pay extra to do so. For example, this year the premium for low-carbon aluminium jumped from a relative

35、ly small US$10$15 a metric tonne (mt) to highs of US$59 because of a surge in demand for the product in Europe.1 In 2019, Alcoa and RioTinto sold the first batch of low-carbon aluminium produced by their Elysis joint venture to Apple. Elysis uses a revolutionary new process to make aluminium that ge

36、nerates oxygen and replaces all direct greenhouse gas emissions from the traditional smelting process.To capitalise on this opportunity for growth, miners need to consider the full life cycle emissions of their production, including those scope 3 emissions outside of their direct control, and how th

37、ey can proactively decarbonise their value chain. One significant market shift that is helping miners reduce their emissions footprint is the growing use of renewable energy by companies globally and across all industries.This trend is also driving demand for commodities that can be recycled with mi

38、nimal carbon emissions. The uptake of renewable energy and commodity recycling is projected to increaseover the coming decades, driven by the plummeting cost of generation, increasing carbon taxes, the push to move to a more sustainable circular economy, and the rising chorus of governments and orga

39、nisations committing to net-zero emissions by 2050. There is a significant competitiveadvantage for miners that heed the market signals and respond early.As their customer priorities and preferences shift, the Top 40 are taking significant steps to reduce their exposure to scope 2 carbon emissionsth

40、ose generated by the production of the electricity that they useand become morealigned with their customers carbon reduction strategies. For example, Teck Resources provided the land and infrastructure for a solar powerfacility on its former mine site in British Columbia. In part, this is an element

41、 of Tecks strategy to develop post-mining land uses. But it is also an aspect of the companys efforts to take action on climate change with a goal for a substantial portion (81%) of its total electricity consumption eventuallycoming from renewable energy sources.Improved access to capitalCompanies t

42、hat embed ESG into their strategyand make detailed and transparent disclosures about sustainability and governanceare increasingly the front runners for accessing capital at generous rates.New sustainability-linked loan facilities are available that provide incentives for ESG performance, such as pr

43、ogress on green investments or sustainability initiatives, through a cheaper cost of capital. Take, for example, Newmonts recently announced US$3bn sustainability-linked revolving credit facility, which includes a pricing feature based on third-party sustainability measures. The better the company d

44、oes on ESG, the lower the cost of capital.1 “Low-carbon aluminum premium achieved at record Eur50/mt in Europe: producer,” S&P Global Platts, 13 HYPERLINK /platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/041321-low-carbon-aluminum-premium-achieved-at-record-eur50mt-in-europe-producer April 2021: /platt

45、s/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/041321-low-carbon- aluminum-premium-achieved-at-record-eur50mt-in-europe-producerESG is also driving investment capital, with ESG-focused funds and indices regularly outdrawing more traditional ones. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, ESG-focused exchange- t

46、raded funds recorded net inflows of US$89bn in 2020, almost three times that of the prior year. However, one of the stumbling blocks that companies and investors face is the absence ofa common definition of good ESG performance.The European Union (EU) has already begun to develop an EU taxonomy for

47、sustainable activities to, among other goals, meet its climate and energy targets for 2030. Although this taxonomy does not specificallymention the mining industry, it clarifies the direction in which miners need to move to be considered sustainable, including introducing the concept of do no signif

48、icant harm. Miners must be prepared to answer the additional questions created by these shifts, in particular from investment firms in Europe, which will need to report theextent to which their products and portfolios align with the EU taxonomy.Making the pivot to ESGMining companies have traditiona

49、lly prioritised safetysome Top 40 companies have built their entire culture around itand the positive results speak for themselves. The worlds big miners must take a similar mindset to other aspects of ESG. According to MSCI ratings, only four of the Top 40 are considered leaders in managingthe most

50、 significant ESG risks and opportunities. The rest need to lift their game. To capture the value that ESG offers, Top 40 miners must focus on two key areas: embedding ESG firmly into strategy and engaging stakeholders.ESG is not something to do once and then forget. It needs to be bakedinto the core

51、 of organisational strategy and purpose. Miners must set targets regularly, report progress transparently and refine their approach continually. Miners need to demonstrate that theynot only understand the risks and opportunities of ESG but are committed to addressing them in everythingthey do.Stakeh

52、olders are the other key to strong ESG performance. Miners need to identify who their ESG stakeholders are and what their concerns are, and then proactively engage with them.Local communities are crucial, but so are regulators, investors, analysts,suppliers, customers and employees. Without understa

53、nding the non-financial drivers of all their stakeholders, miners will find it hard to access new mineral resources, affordable capital to develop these resources and workforces to operate their mines.The Top 40 are on the cusp of a significant opportunity to grow long- term value through ESG. On th

54、e table are market differentiation, access to capital and improved shareholder value. If they can take the same must do approach to the totality of ESGas they have to health and safetythen the benefits are well within their grasp.10 PwC | Mine 2021Tax: Telling your side of the storyMining companies

55、are concerned about tax policy uncertainty, but few are doing much about it. With increasing pressure to disclose, and significant upside to be gained fromdoing so, miners should embrace tax transparency as an integral part of their ESG strategy.Mining CEOs concerns about tax regulations have skyroc

56、keted in the past 12 months. Almost 40% said they were extremely concerned about tax policy uncertainty, up from 18% last year, according to PwCs 24th Annual Global CEO Survey. This notable bounce was not unexpected, given that mining companies are thriving during the pandemic while governments face

57、 rising debt levels and lower tax receipts due to COVID-19 and, to a degree, the cost of meeting sustainability goals.10 | PwC Mine 2021Energy32% Exhibit 2: CEOs who are extremely concerned about tax policy uncertaintyGlobal31%Metals and mining FY20: 18% / FY21: 39% Power and utilities30%Metals and

58、mining39%Source: PwC, 24th Annual Global CEO Survey, March 2021; 23rd Annual Global CEO Survey, January 2020Still, although they are worried about tax policies, CEOs prefer to avoid the topic if they can. In PwCs survey, more than half (56%)2 said that tax policies should be a government rather than

59、 a company priority. Even among the worlds largest miners, the story is the same. The majority of Top 40 companies did not produce tax transparency reports in 2020.Tax transparency is not simplyExhibit 3: Share of Top 40 embracing tax transparencyNodisclosing the size of tax outlays. It is equally a

60、bout unveiling internal taxstrategies and governance procedures to give stakeholders a full view of company participation in the local and even global tax systems. This type of transparency can accomplish three important goals: give mining companies a larger voice in developing tax policies, burnish