美國建筑設(shè)備：上調(diào)Oshkosh和Terex評級為買入

1、Ylobl Rsch | 6pil US Contruction EquipmentUpgading Oshosh and ex to Buy Reaching nw heights: moe posite on access equipmentMoebullish hn consnsus on hepcd upcclein nl cpe ae g K and TEX to , as we exct an cyce n ental equipment capextotranslateoabovecsEPSforhc.eraiserKce target to , fm , and raise r

2、 TEX ce target to , fm . e ve the k for aerials this cyce wl exceed the r 8 . e ae modeling a 5k%above8vels,wecssfoecasting5%wr /5 cd Access/WP evenue estimates for h and eex ae , , and % above c, espectivel. r cvction s edicated tesponsestorlSurve,engtheningmacocators,andcfm cction equipment , wch

3、ce to ve s cce n the ction , and the l ength f ecver. n the medium to -term, r evd Nes Cction k s vate cction g cting totheveandweexctagcycefmanufacturingvestmenttovemulti- year . Ft age s risen ce , o thee cd e moe m to g fleet age wn wh we, r tech equipment. eove, we ve ceased n f aerials n Ca cd

4、add another % to r 5 foecast, and Pesident s ctue l cd add an cemental % f annual wth, ffully . These factors ae teflected nrcent foecasts.ils bhind heconicionr ental equipment cl ccks cate t vement (ch cs x f ., p fm Februarys .; ental rates x f ., p fFeb .). ction s n esponses to these 2 s ve call

5、y eliable cators f e ction s n the cyc. r esidential cction analys cates cction g wl n ct vely (fUe -8% n 1 to % n ). cent eadings f s PMI ve n g (y av. thh ch ., % Y); ength n PMI s n a eliable g cator for ental rates. Hr ental rates, n tur, eflect an envccve to fleet exnand cally dsfrcapex.epctson

6、g ecsh lowgnion o conibueo goh ponieexctgfeecashflownverthecycewlenableceasede epuc, we maintaining ample ce t flexy to accl &A. e estimate K to e .b n FCF thh , enabling.b n e epucs (cs ). Fr TEX, we estimate .b n FCF thh, enabling mne epucluion:pgding OK nd X o Buyr6PTforKsdn.xrwrCYEEPSf.0(was.r F

7、YE EPS f .). The multiple eflects a % ct to the S&P ct wh Ks yr av. elative multiple. r 0 ce target for TEX (.rEEPSf.;was.xrrEEPSf.)cstoeflecta%ctto the FY1S&P 0P/E. quiisAAmericasHeavy cn Fish, CAAy HYPERLINK mailto:steven.fisher ven.fisher.c3ic Cod, CAAy HYPERLINK mailto:eric.crawford eric.crawfo.

8、c3inn oslicz AceAy HYPERLINK mailto:avinatan.jaroslawicz av.wcz.c12This eport s n epaed y US Secs LLC YT CIFICION D RQIRD ICLOR, icludiiormiononeQiiveRrchRviwblidbyB,binone4.USsandstos wh cs cveed n s eseach eports. As a esult, vestors d e awae that the firm may ve a cct est that cd afect the ctivy

9、f this eport. vestors d cr this eport as y a e factor n making their vestment cCrt Ring icet iorS wS %CgeinScriceioriorOK.3 eutral y56.0 .0 .0.0 .5 .5%X8 eutral y50.5 .0 .0.0 .5 .5%Souce :USConucion quipntBS RschISMPSctTss LEAST Vil quipntnucus in our coge(OK &X) eBuPival uestionsUS VEvdenceQ:Will h

10、entpkin il quipntbehighrhn helses.dncklyvgmacocators,hesponsestorrveysandcccks, ceased age f fleets, and r foecast f a t cction cyce n , we exct g ental capex wl ve a w k n aerial access equipment evenues. Fr , we model aerial evenues p%fmthe rkn, and %y Q:Is heuhrupsideominsucuesiulus?es.eestimatet

11、hateftheAmericanJobsPlannsfullformwdadd%toraerial accessequipmentevenueestimatesatfullrunrate.That,rabove-csfoecastsoce cemental d fm the American Jobs Plan, t y cause the amount to d o w s l an n , t cause the cemental d for aerial equipment wleytnwchesnthePlantdow(ascentlywe estimate %fthe dgwdvve

12、 cts that equie aerials).Q:owill cpil llocion conibueo goh ponil?Stg fee cash flow n ver the cyce wl enable ceased e epuc, wmaintaining ample ce tflexy to accel&A.r analys f Ks cal elative multiple thh the cyce cates % f the cyccal ecvery s ced , e es vg risen % ce early Nvember . Shaes tycally trad

13、e at a ct to the S&P , averaging a % ct ver the t 0 years. That , advance f cyccal ecveries n ear, the NM P/E s risen to a % emium (es ae cently trading at .x calendar 2 cs EPS, a % ct to the S&P). A market multiple(.x)ncalendar2csearsf.8wddtoescedatvg 7 f emaining e (at 0 centl, es ve risen 0 fm 9

14、n early Nvember).fesweetotradeashasa%emiumtothemarket,thatwd2(.1x .1x .).evethekforaerialsnthiscycewlexceedtherkf.eaemodelinga 5 k % above 8 vels, we cs s foecasting 5 % w . /5cdAccess/WPevenueestimatesforhandeexae,andabove c, espectivel. eove, we ve ceased n f aerials n Ca caddanother%tor5foecast,a

15、ndPesidentsctuelcdaddan cemental % f annual wth, f fully . These factors ae t eflected n cent foecasts.cent eadings f s PMI ve n e g (y average thh ch was .% Y), and r analys ws that call, ength n PMI s n a eliable cator for ental rates. Hr ental rates, n tur, eflect an envt ccve to fleet exn and ve

16、 cally d s f r capex. Separatel, r cehensive, annual esidential cction analys cates cction g wl n ct vely (fm Ue -8% n 1 to % n ). w, r ental equipment cccks cate t vement (ch s cs x f ., p fm Februarys .;entalratesxf.,pfmFebruarys.).C,thesefactorsdstofoecast a g ecvery n cction equipment , cy acces

17、s equipment (aerial w, telehandlers).Figue1: uyofil ccss quipntscorCrt Ring icet iorS wS %CgeinScriceioriorOK.3 eutral y56.0 .0 .0.0.5.5% X8eutral y50.5 .0 .0.0.5.5% Souce :UUS Cction EquipmentUS chPival uestionsPivlQ:Will hentpkin il quipntbe highrhn helsUS Ves. d n ckly vg maco cators, h esponses

18、to r veys and cl ccks, ceased age f fleets, and r foecast f a cctioncycen,weexctgentalcapexwlveawkaerialaccessequipmentevenues.Fr,wemodelaerialevenuesp%fthe rkn, and %y Evdencecent eadings f s PMI ve n e g (y average thch was ., % Y), and r analys ws that call, ength PMI s n a eliable g cator for en

19、tal rates. Hr ental rates, tur,eflectanenvtccvetofleetexnandvecallys f r capex. Separatel, r cehensive, l esidential cction analys cates cction g wl n ct vely (fm Ue -8% n 1 to % n ). w, r ental equipment cl ccks cate t vement (ch cs x f ., p fm Februarys .; ental rates x f ., fm Februarys .). C, th

20、ese factors d s to foecast a ecvery n cction equipment , cy access equipment (aerial wk, telehandlers).Whts Priced n?r analys t thee s l e for K and TEX fm h a cyccal ecvery and s tailw. r EPS estimates ae above c, and ae tedicatedntheefaafederalctueckage,wchesents further . h cks ae cently trading

21、w we their cal elative valuations wdtnFY+eare eefmcent ck ce vels cause:eblieshseonlypicingapoionofheccl.nKscase,f the cyce d n s cal elative multiple to the S&P 0 (n cestimates) grction , andeeoebullish on hecclehn consnsus.Moebullishhnconsnsusonheupcoingccleevethekforaerialsnthiscycewlexceedtherkf

22、.eae modeling a 5 k % above 8 vels, we cs s foecasting 5 w . r /5 cd Access/WP evenue estimates for and eex ae , , and % above c, espectivel. r cvction edicated na rffactors, ch esponses to r l Surve, maco cators ae engthening, and cy fm cction equipment s ve cce n the ction , and the length fecver.

23、nthemediumto-term,revdNesCctionksvate cction g cting to the ve and we exct a g cyce manufacturing vestment to ve multi-year Ftagesrisence,otheecdemoemtogfleetagewn whwe, rtechequipment.psideo ourbullish scnioeove, we ve ceased n f aerials n Ca cd add another % to r 5 foecast, and Pesident s ctue l c

24、d add ancemental % f annual wth, f fully . These factors ae eflected nrcent foecasts.Figue 2: ongr or longr upccle hd - Be nus % boconsnsus in 57,5007,0006,5006,0005,5005,0004,50000000Csns SK & EX Accss revnsUSouce :VA, USestimates and analyN: Cdevenues eflect FY for K and CY for TEXCclicl ilindseex

25、ct1tomarkthegfancycenaccessequipmentevenues.e exct access equipment evenues to ct to wth n the June 1 . e foecastwthtocethh,wh5evenuesyabovercyckvels.r foecast envs five years f ccve wth, as exced fm .eove,wevethecycekwlerthanthe.LgatKs and TEXs cd access equipment evenues g ck to , each ccessive ks

26、nrthanthe.evethedcycewlmaintain this tend. We vs may end p exceeding the r cyc, thanks to ceased adoptionfaerialsnC,andPesidentsdctue,we vethecaltendsexdyc.r5foecastforaerialevenues (K&TEXc)s%rthan,wchtranslatestoa.%CARver the year . o e e, vs and cg ve fluctuated, and cg s the y factor accg for the

27、 cease. That , we ve cg s the most cant and eliable cr to the verall tend f r ccessive s evenues.Figue3: OK nd X hisoicl nd BeccssWP nus,0,0,0,0,0,0,0Souce :Cy eports, USestimates and analyrfavevw ncyccal dsedicated nthe followgfactors:the kfor esidential cctionthe kfor ental equipment capexFigue4:

28、owco indicos nsleino ccss quipntnuSouce :U:ingheinlcioninon-sidniConsucionn r cn eport d toda, we d r k for U.S. esidential cction.Figue5: BSFocstuFebT12MtofoYoY 2020h1 YUBS2021e2022or2021Cicai3%Hiay & Seet12%Wae, Seage & Wae6%Tanspoai7%acng9%Poer15%Educatio13%O10%Healh Cae6%Cecial10%Oice10%o100%Puc

29、-Prvate-.Souce :US Census eau, USestimates and analyUygecc cators ygrvw cFigue6: BSConsucion Indicornd Oulookshbodd UBS 1 2022ndcatorCuntousdd od ndcaton Forecast Doneal (Total nRe, SR)7Feb 1% last o / v o-0.7% q Achiecl illis IAchiecl niies IUS l Surey: is CiiUS l Surey: l US E&C Cage Total ogDe No

30、n-Reiial Cin Sas T12M) Cin Elent SAA392867666Feb Feb Feb Feb Dec Feb Feb last o / v o last o / v o last o / v o last o / v o last Q / v Qq last o / v olast o / v opOffice / Commeial7Feb 1% last o / v o-1.1% q ceOice Vacancy Total Non-Fam Elent SAACo6%81Feb 1% last o / v o%qDec 0%last Q / v QqFeb 1%

31、last o / v opFeb 1% last o / v o%qFedeal ve Lendig Sandards SureyFedeal ve Loan Deand Surey51Dec Dec Q AvgqQ AvgqEduaal / ay & Tans / Waer6Feb 1% last o / v o-0.3% q Sae Tax is T12M) icil d Is T12M)ducaton240Dec Feb last Q / v Qulast o / v opFeb 1% last o / v o%qEndowent s FY20) Cllege Enrollentspor

32、taon, Hghy & %19Dec Dec FY 0 enp13E avguFeb 1% last o / v o%uportaon Hghy & Fedeal Hiay Aas T12M) Fedeal Ait Aas T12M)Fedeal de & Tunnel Aas T12M) FAST Act SpendiWate, e & Waste54634117Feb 1%qFeb 1%qFeb 1%T12M YoYuFeb 1%T12M YoYpFeb 1%T12M YoYpDec E% FY 1 / FY 0uFeb 1% last o / v o%panufaing4Feb 1%

33、last o / v o-8.5% q Iie r Supply ent PMI ISM acng New OIial PiCapaciy Uilizai8826Feb Feb an an last o / v o p last o / v o p last o / v o plast o / v o pPower9Feb 1% last o / v o4.5% q Uiliy Cy Capex UElecic Generain EIA) Tansiin Spendig EEI)Pilie Cy Capex U332002329Dec Dec Dec Dec 1E YoYu1E YoYp1E

34、YoYp1E YoYqReidential0Feb 1% last o / v o + Uit ilig Peis 6 o avg)+ Uit ilig Sas 6 o avg)50Feb Feb last o / v oqlast o / v oqSouce : AA, Federal ve, US Census, US Department f Labo, , SIFA, ARTBA, cw-H, SHEEO, NACU, U, Cy eports, DeAyticsB: MI a y indicor or quipnt iuilization nd nl ver the t two ca

35、des, the y average f s monthly Pucs x s tycally d Ud ental rates. Periods we the x above 0 d to ental rate vement, and cversel, s w 0 wee accdyYcsnUdentalrates.eecsaverage PMI eading was ., % , cating an vg envt for rates at the moment.Figue 7: Quly g. MI - boe 0 signiis lily oY nl ipont.%.5.%.0.%.5

36、.%.0.%.5.%.0.%.5a0 a1 oa0 a1 o1 e2 l3 a04 a5 a6 o6 e7 l8 a09 a0 a1 o1 e2 l3 a14 a5 a6 o6 e7 l8 a19 a0 a1RI tl ae asMSouce :efor Supply , Cy eports, USestimates and analyYcsntimezationandPMIvealsonectionallyct,whthe twocators %celated fmFigue8: Qulyg. MI nd ieuilization dicionllyconsisnt-ctF-ctF4 -4

37、c4 F5 -5 c5 F6 -6 c6 F7 -7 ctF-ctF-ctF-0 c0 F1RI ie tlizin Y LS)MI YoY ()Souce :efor Supply , Cy eports, USestimates and analyvel, wn ental rates ae ceasing, the equipment market s tight, and can accemoeequipmentnthec.ThisstheycweeytwUs cal ental rates and s capex (Fe ). Wn rates ve n to engthen, UI

38、 s cally ceased capex. e e the a n Fe 9 ve a celation fFigue9: s nl s go, so gos nl quipntcp150%125%100%75%50%25%0%-5%-0%-5%24.0%20.0%16.0%12.0%8.0%4.0%0.0%-.-.DecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecDecURI 2M Gs Cape, YY (S)Rentl Rats YSouce :Cy eports, USestimates and analyC

39、: Rnl cpxbudgs o urn posiie exct vements n cction elated activy to d ental equipment cs to cease their d for access equipment. Hcall, ceased ental equipmentcycapexsnaeliablecatorfceaseddforaccess equipment. , we ct the elationship n absolute , and n terms f c. e e the cd ental equipment capex f Ud ,

40、 H&E Equipment, and Ad (Sunbelt) as a xy for the ental equipment y capex writ The Y csnween the twoasae %celated fmFigue 0: isoicl nd Be nl copny cpx nd OKX ccss nusFigue 1: oY chnge in nl copny cpx nd OK/ X ccss nus,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0ilRenuesRenalpexilRenuesRenalpexSouce :Cy eports, USesti

41、mates and analysSouce :Cy eports, USestimates and analyBS Rnl uy suppos our iw of highiinntcp, we t esponses to two key s fm r most ecent vey ental equipment ch managers: those n s c, and ental rates. e e eported ental rates and s cs ve each cted vel. Hcall,thesectionsveneliablecatorsfrctionsthe cyc

42、Qusion: n the month f ch , versus the month f ch , cswere.Rsponss:Rsuls: % f ental cy managers eported that s cs wee r Y n c. % f managers eported that cs wee we , and %eported that cswee ceassignedcalvaluestotheesponses(we=,oce=,r=). Fr the cent ve, he ge sponse s ., meaning that n the aggegate, s

43、cs wee r Y n c. This ce epesents a cant vement fm Februarys ce f ., and s above the year average chce f. chce epesents the tesult ce Dec Figue 2: isoicl sponss o qusion on businssFigue3: Businss condiions sponsesucondiions ions beions beer Businesscondiions wose BusinessconditSouce :USEquipment lsSu

44、rveysSouce :USEquipment lsSurvey Why businss condiions : Nes cction s a y end market for ental c. e found a e celation ween the yea-ove-year ce c esidential cction activy and the s cn ceported y ch managers n this ve. d cs n s cve cally n a g cator for cs n esidential cction, whthe celation twnges 2

45、months.Figue 4: BS Rnl uy Businss Condiions s. oY Chngs in on Rs. Consucion pnding (lggd 2onhs)Souce :USlEquipment chrSurvey, U.S. Census eauConsucion dlrsninths ipoeecentlyewhsformajorcctionequipmentsnthewest and the Neaedyright.rttotheyearwasfabout%causewe d an y fast t to 1 . A t f that s was t p

46、 n e 9 and wasdnthefirstrf.edthetDecembern0Iveever .Ithinkthatsanothereasonwyearly1snwe.scertainlycked. ee g g d n all f r cts. He g s eally w. Cct equipment s . 0 ze excavators ae as t as they ve nn5years.ewdvenabletoentrlertruckventoryfwe d . r ventory rn rate s as h as s n n the t 3 years. e ve a

47、 l amount f ventory n r that wl e cg n the xt few months, t we exct to rn thh t wt eally g r fleet. ee g thee timesthetransferequestsfmfellowsthatwetycally.Ithinkrwlevgenoughequipmentto.Iverememberthinkingthatenmyyears nthis .Ar r cd e ve n wamped, y cn s the facto. M A d to e 0 ys to t a mac, w the

48、ye 6 months. M tycally6months,wgat+monthverytimesnsgced.the envl cts (weepers / vac trucks) the g factor s the cs mf. Feightliner for ce s t wn fm ch 2 June , an entie , causefycnc.Dealersaetrygtotctfmrvatransfers. venues ae pfor e e n.e think this s the vw that cction d and macy d turdve.Rnl s ipod

49、 signiicnlyin MchQusion:“nthe month fchversus the month fFebruar, yrrental rates”ubrofsponss:Rsuls: % f ch managers cated that ental rates ved n ch m/m, we % eported that ental rates wee the e as n Februar, and thee wee esponses cating that rates dm/m.e assigned cal values to the esponses (d = , yed

50、 the e = ved=).Aesultabove.0catesanaggegatelvement.Fthecentve,hegesponses.,catingthat, ntheaggegate, rates ceased n ch elative to Februar. cs esult epesents cant cease fm Februarys ce f ., and was above the year ch average .Figue5: isoicl sponss o qusion on nl sFigue6: uyofnl esponssRental Rental at

51、es impovedRental ates deteioatedSouce :USlEquipment chrSurveysSouce :USlSurvey Figue 7: isoicl Mch sponss o qusion on nl s109.008.007.006.005.004.003.002.001.000000000000000000000Souce :USlEquipment chrSurveysWhy nl s :Nesidential cction s a y end market ved yentalc.efoundaecelationweentheyea-ove-ye

52、arcec esidential cction activy and the ental rate cs eported Udsand H&E Equipment.vel,entalcsaeabletoraiseentalratesnsfgdfor equipment, y esulting fm r cction g as cts ae wa. Cversel, ental rates tend to e essued as d , and/vecapacy exFigue 8: RI & S Rnl Re Chngs s. oY Chngs in on Rs. Consucion0%6%2

53、%alal e Ces4%8%112Ma-Ma-2 Dec02 Sep03 u-4 Ma-5 Dec05 Sep06 u-7 Ma-8 Dec08 Sp09 u-0 Ma-1 Dec11 Sep12 u-3 Ma-4 Dec14 Sep15 u-6 Ma-7 Dec17 Sep18 u-9 Ma-0Dec200%0%NesNes Csucn Y1%2%3%4% URIRetalateCae HESRalReCae No-sCnonSpdngCneSouce :Cy eports, U.S. Census eau, and USestimates N: UIasthhBSidnceLabS qu

54、ipntlruyopiisic pcions on nwchinesls in .Qusion: Hw o yu exct the w mace t s to ce n cdto Rsuls: verwg majority f s () excts w mace s to e n , vs % wo exct a further ce n w . % f s exct mace s wl e p at t % n , we % f espondents excts wth n the % range. n the aggegate, s exct w mace s to p % n 1 (p

55、fm % cated n evs vey ccted December).Figue9: ls pcions ornwchinesls in Icey-%Icey-%Icey-%Icey-%Icey-%Icey-%Icey1%ochge%Souce :USEvce Lab Access Datase).s heoulookipod gin orhelst3onhsQusion: Hw s yr k for w mace t s ver the xt year cdnthe t3months?Rsuls: % f s ve ce moe c, wh % cantly , ver thet3mon

56、thsnthekforwmacesn,vsy%wove cemoe c (%- cantly moe c).Figue0:lschngsinsnintonheoulook ornwchinesls in 10%5%0%5%0%5%0%5%0%Signiicanly opsimiicSoat opsimiiched SoatoopmiticSigniicanly oopmiticSouce :USEvce Lab Access Datase)Opiisic oulookorhell in consucion nd Qusion: Please rate yr exctations for cct

57、ion activy n 1 for the followgcction end markets, wh0very c and 0very cRsuls: r espondents ve ve exctations (ce above ) for each f the cction end markets wch we asked n the ve. Dealers ve the most c exctations for Ccl (average .), followed y l (.), ctue/Public Cction (.), l& s(.) and l(.).Figue 1: l

58、s pcions or dint nd s in 18.0 7.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0ComeialIndslIntr/PulicConuionSouce :USEvce Lab Access Datase)Oil & asReenalFltgelso aconibuing core cd assume fm g at the s tend that the aerials fleet s n aging cesdn.Weweotvecehensiveantheagefthe aerials fleet, we e H&E Equipment cs the age f s

59、 fleet y equipment tyTheir fleet age cs ce this assumption, as s WP fleet was r at yea- end 0 than any r r yea-end ce . We we caution against thatH&EsWPfleetsepesentativeftheageftheentieaerial,wevH&Es fleet cs as evce that s r verall ve vw n futue WP Figue 2: E quipns WP lt hs gd considbly or he pst

60、 2 sQ0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 QHES WP Feet ge (ts)Souce :Cy eportsWill ohr sgns be suppoie of S goorhentws?e ve Oshoshns: Ks Defense cklog was p % Y n the Decembe-20 . Wthe DDs JTV s may w n the cg years g n y and a ece d n e FY, K d that rl s ve ramping , vg a r floor for the Defense . Ks ecent