Q2英國住房市場展望

1、The Resolution Foundation Housing OutlookLindsay Judge | Cara PacittiThis is just the second Resolution Foundation Housing Outlook, but it is being published in a radically different world to the first Outlook of January 2020. While housing itself played a central role in the downturn of 2008, today

2、 the economic crisis is being driven by a fall off in activity as jobs disappear or becoming very difficult to undertake. In this note we analyse what this coronavirus income shock means for families as they seek to manage their housing costs in the coming months,and assess the ways they are being h

3、elped to weather the storm. Critically, we suggest that even with more generous housing costs support, significant numbers of renters could build up rent arrears.Further action from government as well as forbearance from landlords will likely be required if an uptick in housing stress is to be avert

4、ed.Spotlight | Housing and the coronavirus income shockFor many families, housing is the largest single expenditure they make each month, and one that is difficult to easily adjust (even compared to other essentials such as clothing or heating). At the time of writing, we estimate that between one-t

5、hird to one-half of the UKs labour force is unable to work, either because people are in sectors severely affected by the crisis; they have school age children but are not key workers; or they perform non-essential jobs that cannot be done from home (although some in this group may still be travelli

6、ng to work). Coronavirus may not discriminate in terms of who gets ill, but it clearly does have differential economic impacts. Figure 1 shows how the income shock is currently being experienced across housing tenures.FIGURE 1: The coronavirus income shock is experienced differently across tenuresHo

7、using tenure and ability to work, April 2020: UK79%80%Mortgaged ownerPrivate renterSocial renter70%60%59%27%33%54%50%50%40%30%17%23%23%20%20%24%20%10%0%Those in sectors directlyThose unlikely to be able to Those unlikely to be able toAll at riskaffected by social distancingwork with schools closedwo

8、rk from home1NOTES: Economically active individuals only. SOURCE: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey.While the Government has rapidly put in place very welcome policies to support incomes (includ- ing its job retention scheme, support for the self-employed and by increasing the value of univers

9、al credit), the truth remains that many families will still see their living standards substantially reducedfor a period of time. But how are those affected going to manage their housing costs in the months to come?To begin, mortgagors are not only least likely to be severely affected by the coronav

10、irus income shock, they are also more likely than those in other tenures to have a financial buffer to help them adjust: one-quarter have in excess of 10,000 in savings, compared to just seven per cent of all renters (al- though it is worth noting that another quarter of mortgagors have no savings a

11、t all). The Bank of Englands interest rate cut in March has marginally reduced monthly payments for the one-quarter on tracker mortgages, but far more usefully, the Governments insistence (and lenders willingness) to offer borrowers a three-month mortgage holiday will provide a respite for many. Mor

12、eover, and in con- trast to the recession of the early 1990s, while the inevitable downward effect on house prices will be a source of anxiety, few are likely to enter negative equity territory (the upside of the high loan-to-value ratios lenders have required since the 2008 crisis).In contrast, ren

13、ters of both stripes who even prior to the crisis spent more of their incomes on hous- ing costs than owners look set to be harder hit by the income shock. In the absence of a long-term relationship with a lender, or the security of some equity in their home, help for this group will largely come fr

14、om the state. Renters do not start from a strong place in this regard: the average share of rent covered by housing benefit (the housing element of universal credit or its equivalent in the legacy system hereafter HB) has fallen substantially since 2011. However, the Government has rightly acted qui

15、ckly to bolster HB adequacy for private renters in recent weeks, repegging the local housing allow- ance (LHA) rates to local rents after seven years of minimal uprating at a cost of 1 billion.This welcome move means private renters with constrained incomes can now receive support with housing costs

16、 up to the 30th percentile of local rents. Stepping back, however, it is clear that this is not a wholesale solution and could still leave many with significant shortfalls. It is reasonable to expecta large number of private renters seeking support from the benefits system in the coming weeks to liv

17、e in homes priced significantly above the LHA rates (note, for example, that 84 per cent were not in receipt of HB prior to the crisis meaning many are unlikely to have chosen their homes with benefit levels in mind). So how is the typical private renter affected by the coronavirus income shock like

18、ly to fare in the foreseeable future?Looking at the difference between local rents at the 30th percentile and the median gives an idea of just how stretched some might be. In Figure 2 we show the area in each region with the largest gap between housing support and median rents. As this makes plain,

19、a family living in a three-bedroom property in Hammersmith and Fulham at the median rent will have to find an additional 468 a month on top of HB to cover their rent. Even in less expensive parts of the country such as the North West, private renters are still likely to struggle: those living in a t

20、wo-bedroom property in Salford would need to find an extra 109 per month. The length of time such families will require support from the benefits system is an unknown, but clearly hundreds of pounds of arrears are not out of the question: a family in a two-bed property in Torfaen in Wales could amas

21、s a debt of nearly 400 over three months, for example, in the absence of other funds from which to pay their rent.FIGURE 2: Many private renters could see large shortfalls between actual rents and housing supportEstimated gap between 30th percentile and median private rents (calendar month): selecte

22、d Broad Rental Market Areas, GBHammersmith & Fulham (London)Salford (North West) Stirling (Scotland) Torfaen (Wales)Ryedale (Yorks & Humber) Cornwall (South West) South Norfolk (East)Isle of Wight (South East)Newcastle-under-Lyme (W Midlands) City of Nottingham (E Midlands) Darlington (North East)05

23、03 bedrooms2 bedrooms1 bedroom100150200250 300 350 400 450 500NOTES: Figures are for September 2019, the month to which LHA rates are pegged. London excludes City of London. See L Judge, Moving Matters, Resolution Foundation May 2019 for full description of median rents methodology.SOURCE: RF analys

24、is of LHA rates and RF Index of private rents.So how could those that fall out of work with rents above the 30th percentile be supported in these troubled times? Some degree of forbearance from private landlords could be expected: they are not highly leveraged as a group (39 per cent of landlords ha

25、ve no mortgage) and less than half report holding property for the income stream. However, allowing renters housing security to rest in the gift of individuals is less than ideal. While the Government recently extended the period of notice a land- lord must give a tenant in England and Wales from tw

26、o to three months, the evidence suggests it may be necessary to go further and offer renters greater assurance that their homes will be safe for the foreseeable future (for example, by aligning with Scotland where renters now have a six-month grace period in the event of rent arrears).Private renter

27、s in lower priced properties are still not home and dry, however. Even if families are living in homes priced at or below the 30th percentile, the actual level of support they (and, indeed, many social renters) receive with their housing costs via HB could be reduced by the continued operation of th

28、e benefit cap. Introduced in 2013, the cap restricts total benefits that can be paid to workless cou- ples or single parents to 20,000 per year, and to singles without children to 13,400 (or 23,000 and15,410 respectively for those living in Greater London). Designed to incentivise claimants into wor

29、k, today the caps policy rationale is clearly at odds with both the public health requirements, and the labour market realities of rising unemployment and waning vacancies.In Figure 3 we show how the housing uplift combined with the recent boost in the value of the UC personal allowance will result

30、in many more private renters running up against the strictures of the cap. We estimate, for example, that couples with two children living in a three-bedroom home will now fall foul of the cap in 107 out of 152 local areas, resulting in their not receiving support in line with their assessed need.FI

31、GURE 3: Uplifts to the value of UC will be tempered by the benefit capNumber of Broad Rental Market Areas where full UC award will breach the benefit cap120100Absent coronovirus uplifts Personal allowance uplift94107Personal allowance and housing element uplifts806860444016281823200 9Single person,

32、1 bedroomLone parent, 2 children, 2 bedroomsCouple, 2 children, 3 bedroomsNOTES: 152 BRMAs nationwide. Assumes no earnings and housing costs at 30th percentile of local rents. SOURCE: RF UC calculator.The Governments coronavirus package has been swift and extensive, but without further action far mo

33、re renters than owners look set to struggle with their housing costs in the foreseeable future.Increasing security of tenure would protect those renters who cannot help but run up arrears as they adjust to the massive coronavirus income shock. But alongside this, the evidence suggests the smart- est

34、 move right now might be to help as many families as possible pay their rents in full by suspending the benefit cap.Housing indicators | Exploring key trends in the UK housing market, and what this means for households and policy makersView the interactive data behind our housing indicators at resol

35、/housingoutlookHousing market trends25%House price, annual change3.5%Rents, annual change20%15%London3.0%2.5%South West10%5%UK0%2.0%1.5%1.0%UK0.5%-5%20102020UK house price growth has been slowing for a number of years, but picked up slightly in the latest data. Well be watching th

36、is closely over the coming months.0.0%201220132014201520162017201820192020Rents have been edging upwards over the past year, after a significant slowdown in growth since 2015.Transactions per 1,000 householdsMonthly number of mortgage approvalsEngland and WalesLondonUK16140,00014120,00012100,00080,0

37、001060,000840,000620,00041996 Q12019 Q3Transactions were recovering towards pre- crisis levels, but have been on a downward trajectory in recent years and are expected to plummet, given the lockdown.Home ownership ratesTotalAges 18-29Housing and living standards60%50%40%30%20%10%019932020Mortgage ap

38、provals had slightly picked up over the past quarter, having been flat for around five years, but new lending is expected to be extremely sluggish in the coming months.Share of families with children living in the PRSLondonUK30%25%20%15%10%5%0%19612019Home ownership rates have ticked up since 2016,

39、but look to have levelled off in the very latest dataQ4 1996Q2 2019The share of families with children that live in the PRS has increased almost three-fold since the 1990s.Housing costs as a share of incomeSocial rentersGBYears to save for a typical depositUK20.0%1618.0%1416.0%1214.0%10812.0%10.0%19

40、94-952017-18Housing costs as a share of income have fallen for mortgagors post-crisis but increased fast for social renters.61994-19962017-2019It would take 14 years for a typical young adult to save for a deposit, up from less than 8 in the mid-1990s.Net additional dwellingsEnglandYorkshire and The

41、 HumberHousing and policy1210864280%Housing benefit recipients fully covered by HBSocial rentersPrivate renters70%60%50%40%30%20%10%02000-012018-19Overall net additions have recovered to their pre-crisis levels, but not in all parts of the country, and the coronavirus crisis will have a marked impac

42、t on housing output.Housing stock to benefit unit ratioScotlandGB/UK9209008800%1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17The share of families in receipt of housing benefit whose housing costs are fully covered fell throughout the 2010s.Help to Bu

43、y as a share of new build salesEnglandLondon60%50%40%86084082030%20%80010%7801991-922017-18Relative to the number of families, the UKs housing stock has declined since the turn of the century.0%20132019Help to Buy has accounted for a growing share of new build sales across England, and particularly

44、in London.Regional focus | Overcrowding across the UKWith the stay at home the message heard loud and clear, housing matters more than ever. But the coronavirus lockdown will be particularly challenging for the 1.8 million-plus families living in the UK in overcrowded homes. We know that overcrowdin

45、g is most prevalent in the social rental sector where 13 per cent of families live in overcrowded conditions, as opposed to around 10 per cent of those in the private rental sector, and just 2 per cent of owner-occupiers. However, overcrowding also varies significantly across the country, suggesting families in different regions of the UK will be experiencing lockdown very differently (see Figure 4).Perhaps unsurprisingly given high housing costs, significant demographic differences and a higher level of socia