5G娛樂經(jīng)濟報告

1、HOW 5G WILL TRANSFORM THE BUSINESS OF MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENTOCTOBER 2018SUMMARYThe global media industry stands to gain $765bn in cumulative revenues from new services and applications enabled by 5G ($260bn in the US and $167bn in China). Thanks to the new network capabilities brought by 5G, annual m

2、obile media revenues will double in the next 10 years to $420bn in 2028 ($124bnin the US). The transformative impact of 5G will go well beyond just enhanced mobile media. It will disrupt the industry on many levels, with new business models and new immersive interactive experiences to capitalize on.

3、 Video, gaming, music, advertising, AR, and VR will all see fundamental changes due to 5G, bringing content and audiences closer. Ultimately, we expect 5G to help bring a new, tactile dimension to entertainment.This study was conducted by Ovum, leveraging in-depth media markets expertise from a larg

4、e team of analysts and industry contacts in media and telecoms. The forecast followed a rigorous methodology process whereby each 5G use case was put against its own media market context such as market dynamics and business models, and was tested on consumers via a survey. The revenue projections an

5、d resulting analysis focus solely on consumer services, although there is also a strong opportunity for 5G in media for enterprises.MEDIA REVENUES ($BN)0150501002004003503002504502016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028 3G/4G 5G5G REVENUE UPLIFT WORTH $765BNFIGURE 1: TOTAL GLOBAL MEDIA R

6、EVENUES DELIVERED OVER WIRELESS NETWORKS, 3G/4G VS 5G, 20162028 ($BN)How 5G will transform the business of media & entertainment02SOURCE: OVUMNext page Arrow-circle-rightArrow-circle-left Previous pageKey findings5G will transform media business models. Thanks to the new network capabilities brought

7、 by 5G, annual mobile media revenues will double in the next 10 years to $420bn in 2028 ($124bn in the US). Media companies that are first to embrace those new business models will be winners.5G will enable new ways to interact with media. 5G will unlock augmented and virtual reality applications th

8、at will create more than $140bn in cumulative revenues between 2021 and 2028 ($32bn in the US), enabling a whole new channel toreach consumers. Augmented reality will create a new way for people to connect with media through virtual items, virtual characters, and augmented contextual information. Th

9、e creation of volumetric 3D content and an ecosystem to manage that type of content will be important to fully realize this market potential.5G will supercharge the digital advertising market. Mobile display advertising will present a significant revenue opportunity, with an expected market of$178bn

10、 worldwide by 2028 ($66.6bn in the US). 5G will have a fundamental role in transitioning traditional display advertising toward social and media immersive experiences. Scale, delivery, and measurements are key challenges for mobile ad campaigns today, which 5G will help overcome.5G will triple mobil

11、e media revenues in China to $100bn. Chinese national mobile operators and media companies will see many benefits from aggressive 5G network rollouts. China will be the largest market in the world for VR and AR by 2028 with over $15bn in direct revenues.How 5G will transform the business of media &

12、entertainment035G will be a major competitive asset for network providers in media, B2B and B2C. Video will see substantial market transformation from 5G mobile video revenues over 5G will grow with a CAGR of 85% between 2021 to 2028. 5G will bring economies of scale to network providers TV offering

13、s with a much wider footprint, competing against IPTV, cable, and satellite. On the B2B front,5G will help operators capitalize on mobile media growth by selling 5G network capabilities to OTT video service providers.Longer term, 5G will bring new senses to media: touch and feel. Highly responsive h

14、aptic suits merged with advanced VR capabilities, such as Ready Player One, will unleash a new sensation dimension to media consumption. This type of new VR experience will emerge in 2025 and will generate over$5bn annually by 2028 ($1.5bn in the US). Now is the time to bet on the right technology t

15、hat will enable this, including 5G.Gaming will be at the forefront of 5G-led innovation. AR games will make up more than 90% of 5G AR revenues by 2028 ($35.7bn globally). Fastresponsiveness and high-resolution, real-time streaming will also help unlock mobile cloud, gaming. Overall 5G mobile games r

16、evenues, including AR and cloud gaming, will exceed $100bn annually in 2028 ($20bn in the US).Next page Arrow-circle-rightArrow-circle-left Previous pageTHE REVENUE OPPORTUNITY5G will bring tremendous growth to the media and entertainment industry in the coming years. 5G will grow the global mobile

17、media market from $170bn in 2018 to $420bn in 2028 ($124bn in the US), a CAGR of 9.8% over 10 years. 5G revenues will overtake 3G/4G revenues by 2025 globally (2023 in the US) and total net new revenues coming from 5G will account for $200bn in 2028 ($67bn in the US). 4G alone cannot deliver that le

18、vel of transformation, and not moving to 5G fast enough may become a risk to businesses.How 5G will transform the business of media & entertainment04Next page Arrow-circle-rightArrow-circle-left Previous pageFIGURE 2: 5G IMPACT ON MEDIA REVENUES, GLOBAL, 201628MEDIA REVENUES ($BN)0450250200150100503

19、00350400201620172018201920202021NEW MEDIA IMMERSIVE MEDIA 5G2022202320242025202620272028IMMERSIVE MEDIA 3G/4GFWA BROADBAND AND TV 5G FWA BROADBAND AND TV 3G/4GENHANCED MOBILE ADVERTISING 5G MOBILE ADVERTISING 3G/4GENHANCED MOBILE MEDIA 5G MOBILE MEDIA 3G/4GSOURCE: OVUM5G will start to realize its fu

20、ll transformational potential from 2022 onwards, when we will start to see a significant impact on traditional media usage, mass- scale adoption of AR and VR, and the emergence of new use cases such as 3D holographics, haptic suits, and advanced interactive entertainment. Immersive and new media app

21、lications will reach an unprecedented scale by 2028, generating in excess of $67bn annually this is equivalent to the value of the entire mobile media market (video, music, and games) last year.How 5G will transform the business of media & entertainment055G media revenues can be categorized as follo

22、ws:Enhanced mobile media (video, music, and games): This corresponds to the use of paid-for and bundled-in traditional media including video, music, and gaming on 5G networks.Enhanced mobile advertising: This corresponds to mobile display advertising such as videos, banners, in-game placement over 5

23、G, and other visual advertising formats that may appear in VR and AR environments.Home broadband and TV: This corresponds to the use of 5G as the primary home internet connection bundled with a TV package. This type of connection is also referred to as fixed wireless access (FWA).Immersive media (AR

24、, VR, and cloud gaming): This corresponds to augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) content and applications, as well as cloud gaming delivered over 5G. AR,VR, and cloud gaming are not new, but 5G offers the opportunity to unlock their use to mass- market level.New media: This corresponds t

25、o new applications that do not really exist today and that 5G will enable in the future. This includes self-driving car entertainment, 3D holographic displays, and connected haptic suits among others.Next page Arrow-circle-rightArrow-circle-left Previous pageFIGURE 3: MARKET TRANSFORMATION OPPORTUNI

26、TY BY MEDIA SEGMENT, GLOBAL, 20192028SOURCE: OVUMTOTAL ANNUAL REVENUES 3G/4G/5G ($BN)HOME INTERNET AND TVNEW MEDIAIMMERSIVE MEDIA (AR, VR, AND CLOUD GAMING)MOBILE DISPLAY ADVERTISING040206020018016014012010080MOBILE MEDIA (VIDEO, MUSIC, AND GAMES) 2018 20232028+95%(2018-28)+141%(2018-28)+2,394%(2018

27、-28)+43%(2018-28)+2,626%(2023-28)Enhanced mobile broadband to boost media usage and revenues5G will drastically increase media usage. The average monthly traffic per 5G subscriber will grow from 11.7GB in 2019 to 84.4GB per month in 2028, at which point video will account for 90% of all 5G traffic.

28、Figure 3 illustrates 5Gs ability to transform this increased usage into revenues, from already large established segments such as gaming and advertising, to yet to be unlocked new ones such as AR and VR.5G will grow the global media market over cellular networks from $170bn in 2018 to $420bn in 2028

29、 ($124bn in the US), a CAGR of 9.8% over 10 years. Consumer spend for video, music, and games on mobile will nearly double by 2028 to reach almost $150bn globally ($29bn in the US).The fundamental drivers that will help realize this multi-$100bn opportunity are:Enhanced mobile broadband will deliver

30、 a seamless, high-quality experience for media streaming services such as Spotify and Netflix. The global paid-for video, music, and games market delivered over cellular networks will almost double in the next 10 years, from $77bn in 2018 to nearly $150bn in 2028.Lower cost per bit will bring afford

31、able and truly unlimited mobile data packages, better adapted to heavy media usage.New business models such as bundling and more effective advertising using real- time data analytics will spur the adoption of media services over 5G. 5G bundles will account for 27% ($11bn) of global mobile video and

32、music revenues in 2028.How 5G will transform the business of media & entertainment06Next page Arrow-circle-rightArrow-circle-left Previous pageNew media opportunities will generate $185bn in the next 10 yearsThere are many new opportunities that 5G will enable in the next 10 years besides just growi

33、ng usage of traditional media on mobile:Advertising will be the most impacted by 5G in terms of value; 5G will add an extra $100bn to annual mobile display advertising revenues by 2028 ($35bn in the US). This will correspond to a net cumulative growth of more than half a trillion dollars in the next

34、 10 years ($280bn in the US). The advertising market will benefit from incremental usage of services such as video, the emergence of new immersive formats enabled by 5G, and resulting social integrations. The best way to prepare is to participate in early experimentations with 5G, not necessarily to

35、 get first-mover advantage, but rather to understand what is achievable and be ready to move in at the right moment.Entertainment you can feel offers tremendous opportunities for the media industry in the long term. Haptic suits connected to 5G will be able to deliver a new sensory dimension to medi

36、a experiences. For instance, new sensations such as heat and pressure could be bundled into a weapons upgrade in an action game, or movies could be re-released with a new sensation layer, opening a new monetization cycle across old catalogs.New media experiences to be enabled by 5G such as in-car en

37、tertainment, 3D holographic displays, and live in-stadium experiences are all set to bring in a cumulative $43bn in the next 10 years ($23.5bn in the US). In all cases, 5G will bring fans and their idols closer, something to be considered as of great value to consumers.New immersive interactive expe

38、riences will be unlocked by 5G. AR, VR, and cloud gaming combined will grow nearly 2,400% in the next 10 years to reach yearly revenues of $47.7bn in 2028 ($8bn in the US). The cumulative revenue contribution from 5G over the forecast period will be $142bn globally ($32bn in the US). 5G will benefit

39、 from a perfect storm expected around 202325, when hardware and network capabilities will help realize VR experiencesthat are close to reality. Human-scale 210-degree horizontal field of vision, six degrees of freedom for movement, high pixel-density display/projectionresolution, miniature battery s

40、ize, and highly responsive interaction are some of the elements that are required to reach this inflection point.Mobile edge computing will be key. These experiences wont be achievable solely through stand-alone hardware and will require some of the computational power to be executed remotely on the

41、 network. Mobile edge computing (MEC) capabilities that 5G will feature will be key. On the content side, there will need to be an ecosystem around 3D volumetric content creation, management, and distribution, which is already emerging today (e.g., Intel Studios, Microsoft Mixed Reality Capture Stud

42、ios).Next page Arrow-circle-rightHow 5G will transform the business of media & entertainment07Arrow-circle-left Previous pageSOURCE: OVUMTABLE 1: 5G KEY OPPORTUNITIES AND IMPACTTRANSFORMATIONAL IMPACTNEW BUSINESS MODELSNEW ADVERTISING FORMATS AND MEASUREMENTTransitioning traditional banner-based adv

43、ertising to moving images, video especially.Digital and social advertising transformation integration and customization with immersive experiences.Real-time dynamic measurement of ad effectiveness through eye tracking, biometrics, etc.New ad formats in AR and VR.New ways to monetize engagement and i

44、nteraction brought by AR, VR, and haptics.Less-intrusive ads mean more opportunity for ad-supported premium services (e.g., ads in Netflix).EMPOWERED GAMING EXPERIENCES5G AR gaming will be very large (90% of all AR revenues).5G-reduced lag to unlock cloud gaming on mobile.Haptic suits and VR to tran

45、sform gaming experience.Virtual objects to be used in games for AR and VR.Network-dependent gaming experiences such as cloud gaming more likely to push subscription models.Pay per sensation/feel on haptic suits.VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS AS NEW MEDIA CHANNELSAn entirely new way for consumers to interact w

46、ith content.Engagement levels to be much higher because of immersion.Create a real connection between artist and fan.Virtual items can be bought via in-app transactions or bundled in with digital media purchases (e.g., movie, music video).Highly valued engagement could be priced on a per event or pe

47、r minute basis for celebrities.New advertising formats.A NEW SENSORY DIMENSION TO ENTERTAINMENTHaptic suits combined with high responsiveness of 5G network will bring touch sensation over the internet.Realistic immersion when combined with high quality VR.A new sense means an entirely new way to mon

48、etize entertainment.Different levels or sensations could be unlocked for different price tiers. IN-CAR ENTERTAINMENTDriverless cars to bring new context in which to enjoy entertainment set to generate an aggregate $19.5bn in the next 10 years.Americans spend on average 293 hours per year driving, ac

49、cording to the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety.Car-hold dual-play. Home entertainment subscription for the-car.Our survey data shows that consumers are likely to pay more for in-car entertainment than for mobile entertainment.How 5G will transform the business of media & entertainment08THE IMPACT

50、ON THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE5G will enable network operators to compete better with cable and satellite operatorsOver half our survey respondents (53% and 50% in the US and the UK respectively) indicated they would be interested in switching to 5G providers for their connectivity and TV services. 5G

51、 network capabilities will enable converged fixed/mobile wireless service providers to reach economies of scale and offer bundled services, of which residential connectivity and TV and video services are likely to be the first.We anticipate significant inroads to be made into consumer spending on re

52、sidential broadband and TV services by 5G network operators at the expense of fixed broadband and traditional pay-TV providers. As 5G speeds ramp up, the existing differentiation in broadband speeds enjoyed by cable and other fixed network operators over cellular will be eroded.The US is the market

53、where this opportunity is the strongest. Almost 9% of broadband households will use 5G as their main broadband connection by 2028, generating nearly $9bn in revenues. This may seem small in comparison to consumer interest rates recorded in the survey, but we expect fixed broadband providers to align

54、 with 5G offerings and compete aggressively.CONNECTIONS (MILLIONS)5G FWA REVENUES ($BN)02412108614024987531610 5G FWA REVENUESOTHER FWA 4G20192020202120222023202420252026202720285GFIGURE 4: 5G FWA CONNECTIONS AND REVENUE PROJECTIONS, US, 201928How 5G will transform the business of media & entertainm

55、ent09SOURCE: OVUMNext page Arrow-circle-rightArrow-circle-left Previous pageTHE TRANSFORMATIONAL POTENTIAL OF 5G5G will usher in not only a new era in mobile communications performance, but new classes of consumer and business services as well. 5G is transformational when it comes to the services it

56、 will enable thanks to its networks capabilities.When looking at new mobile networks, the most logical place to begin is with the access network. 5G will bring very distinct improvements over LTE in this area.Using advanced antenna technologies, improvements in the air interface, and access to new s

57、pectrum bands, 5G can provide speeds greater than 1Gbps, a tenfold increase over many of todays LTE networks. Latency will also significantly improve in the access network, with 5G being designed to deliver 1ms of latency.FIGURE 5: 5G ACCESS NETWORK IMPROVEMENTSSOURCE: OVUM+10 x-10 xLTE: 100MbpsLTE:

58、 10ms5G: +1Gbps5G: 1msHow 5G will transform the business of media & entertainment10The 5G network story, however, is much more than access. 5G will bring with it major changes to other parts of the network as well. Two changes of note are mobile edge computing and network virtualization:Mobile edge

59、computing (MEC) brings network computing capabilities closer to the network edge. MEC can help enable lower latency and better distribution of network content. Virtualization, especially the new 5G network core, will enable network slicing.Network slicing allows operators to offer different classes

60、of services across a common infrastructure. For example, with slicing, an operator could offer one group of subscribers a service with 1Gbps guaranteed download speed and best- effort latency, while offering another group of subscribers a service with best- effort speeds above a minimum threshold of