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11、7.40%57.10%10.10%15.40%27.30%43.00%23.30%6.40%2726914.40%27.30%53.50%2.90%16.20%29.60%37.70%14.40%18.30%fl46221562.30%14.70%42.90%18.70%23.60%11.20%39.70%26.70%22.40%fi136472781.80%25.30%36.90%19.00%18.90%28.10%31.80%21.60%18.60%2015RDaMKip136.47vI5p,fl+0.31%,1990-2015,%+fiQfi1.8%,b2011fiB+flN,fM fi

12、hQ fl$ GDPaflNzfl$,2015IIHfixw$3Hy fl31.8%28.1%21.6%;fiqflr,IIHfl b1997fltA37.2%flN,xwflb200023.1%ec2011tA29.2%$N,JBL JaMfi$6ffi#$,$3H%flLJaMflzfi(,RfaMKi%$Vfl(fi,15y flfi21.9%16.0%11.6%6.2%( 5.2%z$(flfixwfifaM,2015xaMKipfloy fi66.6%(44.5%;(VfiIIHfififaM,fly 36.3%(32. 5%;fi% D$3H$,$3HaMKiflot51.3%z:

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14、2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018% *0:C fi $ y$ NEWCfiDfiffi (9y/B)ffi75 (8):WTI/(9y/,)fl : 3-#fl $ ,fl *+ $: 3fl .fl 2$/WTI 0flfl NEWCfi0flfl fl fl fi 2($fl4)fifl 2($fl4fl 19992000(,y/ )17.4130.7376.60%(,y/4)23.3424.484.90%0.751.263,4873,618-1.80%3.80%fi2)229723290.00%1.40%200126.61-13.40%31.7529.

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17、,1250.20%40061.70%201491.23-6.50%70.84-17.00%1.294,2262.40%3992-0.30%201549.31-46.00%58.99-16.70%0.844,3593.20%3887-2.60%201644.47-9.80%65.8311.60%0.684,3820.50%3656-5.90%201755.1126.50%93.6846.60%0.59201863.6623.2%100.4722.0%0.63 :NYMEXwindfiBP fi $y$ 2016761$/1y fi36.565 137.325 1,fl&6.2%&1.7%BPfi

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19、001000019651972197919861993200020072014y$ 76$/1($fl5 1)fl(q0)1990199520002005201020162020E2025E2030E2035E12273.72262.22325.63033.63627.63656.43806.73952.44046.24150.9%012242.52244.62379.13130.63634.337323896.840674072.34032.5 5$#31.217.6-53.5-97.1-6.7-75.6-90.1-114.6-26.2118.4:fi3 5fi.,fl $fi$6fl ($

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25、2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 )3:Wind fi fi $ y$#:2003-2017$ *8fi3 .+ $7 :2016$; *838C,fl,4.7%1EL:VU:$(T)VU1ELfl(qH)3020100-10-2019691972197519781981198419871990199319961999200220052008201120142017VU1EL GDP 2.$fi3,flFGDPflT!fi$,; LKflfifi&!fi;KH:43GDP3-5%;q,$%PfiGDP%3fififl.#0.68

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27、.16%0.31C 1986-20162.54%0.64 1981-20027.64%1.292003-20153.63%0.96 $1986-20163.53%0.46:$fi#1986-20164.83%0.65 DK:wind fififi J$ fi $ y$5:5-fi AS,flGDP! O , LK$#flfi0-3% !=2002-20072.50%2.24%2008-20150.50%-2.53%$#1981-19904.69%0.91%1991-20150.68%-0.17%C 1933-19854.48%2.38%1986-20152.57%0.22% 1981-2002

28、8.23%7.10%2003-20153.68%3.46% (fl)NfiGDP !LK !NfiGDP !LK ! DK:Ofifi $fi1yfl $cfifl z fi $ y$53. fiC8$flE,E,fl,$fi/flAfi$ GDPMflY, 2017fi$ GDPMfl0.597/fly,fl3.6%,200080%;$+fifi1Y,2017fi$+fifi1fi0.83;M;JfiY,fiM;fi a,N2020:RM;:RVfl fi58%,2017y 2.4 $ yA,(I0.8 $yA_O: 10%P,:K L$fi2-3% fi :; =GDPflJ$ :2016

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30、fi $ y$,2.01.51.00.50.00510151986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016$GDP#$+fifi1(qS)00.5119781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016GDPQ= flGDPQ fl GDPQ fl%:fl$IB EM:YM!fi!$ y$%:fl$#T#$TqfiB EM:WindJ$!fi!$ y$4 $I34.1o16$I2.9o17$I2.2o18$fi

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35、fizH,3fi $fi$zfiP,fl$fl fifi,z gfia*,y;fi fl,fififiz$Tfifl$Egfizf fiH,=fifl%.nfifi (,fl(S5fiP$T%I$ fifi,flgfiM5,;fl fl,fifi$T%; fi$pqBMfifi8:16 $fi$fl$& ,BMfi?fl$/0 ,18$fi$,BMfiflflfiA P:2009-2018$Q1flfizfi$ fiqfl/z2009201020112012201320142015201620172018Q15500#596-746-819167370158914901193517414475

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39、8%55%60%66%63%61%4f25%28%26%34%41%45%46%42%42%0$ fi46%47%49%51%54%58%58%55%54%P_f:wind.fi.$y$J2. fl.fl,.#fl$,3$fi 12fi?S $:9z6P ;,$flfi$,z18$fl2012( 41%,17 S fi$fizI4$ff#$flfifi iJ;:fi2,:9zfl$yfl%,fl$ f%W/,%fl flO,fifi:9z$fl$ffi,Jzfi3$MN7 i201020112012201320142015201620172018$I4fi 411.3362500.6674.5

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