科技行業(yè)：科技股~行業(yè)總體機(jī)會(huì)與挑戰(zhàn)共存

1、科技香港技股 行業(yè)總體2019年1月2日機(jī)會(huì)與挑戰(zhàn)共存投資思路總結(jié)盡管中國(guó)軟件/IT / IT （特別IT 市場(chǎng)）IT業(yè)上云和大數(shù)據(jù)分析普及是一個(gè)持續(xù)的過(guò)程，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾年云計(jì)算/大數(shù)據(jù)分析領(lǐng)IT IT 投資 IT 以提高效率并降低成本。我們?nèi)匀豢春媒鸬麌?guó)際0268.HK、浪潮國(guó)際0596.HK和神州控股0861.HK。我們預(yù)計(jì)219年（特別是下半年，中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)（如網(wǎng)絡(luò)游戲和在線廣告 年一季度市場(chǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)行業(yè)或仍201820193月公2018 2018 年下半2019 中國(guó)政府將繼續(xù)收緊互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融/金融科技領(lǐng)域的監(jiān)管。我們認(rèn)為，金融科技領(lǐng)域緒改善將提升騰訊0700.HK的股價(jià)表

2、現(xiàn)。TMT 5G 2018 12 月初中國(guó)分配頻譜之后。我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，5G 發(fā)展是全球投資主題，盡管中國(guó)是全球主要市場(chǎng)之一。我們認(rèn)為電信設(shè)備相關(guān)公司如中國(guó)鐵塔788.HK、中國(guó)通信服務(wù)0552.HK、中興通訊0763.HK、昂納科技集團(tuán)0877.HK和長(zhǎng)飛光纖光纜6869.HK將成為主2018 年下半年表現(xiàn)相對(duì)優(yōu)異，但我們?nèi)灶A(yù)計(jì)電信設(shè)備名稱(chēng)將在 2019 年繼續(xù)跑贏。5G IT 系統(tǒng)IT1675.HK5G（特別是手機(jī)5G5G（4K/8K） AR/VRIoTIIoT、智能健康和智能能源）5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)。2019 （1） 工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的主要技術(shù)越來(lái)越成熟（2（3）互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭已將焦點(diǎn)從 tC 轉(zhuǎn)移到 to。

3、2018 2019 iPhone 出貨量同比下滑，市場(chǎng)焦點(diǎn)已轉(zhuǎn)向蘋(píng)果的批量出貨趨勢(shì)。對(duì)蘋(píng)果陣營(yíng)的擔(dān)憂也將拖累安卓陣營(yíng)的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)。我們認(rèn)為 TMT 公司 2018 年四季度的股價(jià)調(diào)整帶來(lái)良好的重新關(guān)注機(jī)會(huì)，特別是我們看好的股份，如金蝶國(guó)際、浪潮國(guó)際、神州控股、昂納科技集團(tuán)、中興通訊、中國(guó)鐵塔、中國(guó)通信服務(wù)、中國(guó)擎天軟件1297.HK、騰訊和檳杰科達(dá)1665.HK。SectorNoteTechnologyHong KongJanuary 2, 2019Hong KongTechnology -OverallHighlightedcompaniesOpportunities along withch

4、allenges HK-listed TMT names, in general, underperformed the market in 2018 and in ChinasBUY, TP HK$1.81, HK$1.48closeTMT sector, non-hardware outperformedhardware.The Company is an early 5G CAPEX cycle We still prefer the non-hardware segment, as investment themes such as name with limited exposure

5、 to overseasincreasing adoption of cloud computing and AI remain intact. The toB and toG markets and faces lessmacrorisk.segments are likely to outperform the toCsegment.InspurInternational The hardware segment was dragged down by handset components, since the BUY, TP HK$4.50, HK$3.39closemarket is

6、maturing. 5G and related names will remain the focus of the market despite Inspur is an under-appreciated IT servicestheir outperformance in 2H 2018. 5G-related applications such as IIOT and name, which will benefit from increasing ITSmart City will be investment themes in the medium term.spending.

7、The Company is trading at a lower Any share price weakness around 2018 results announcements in Mar 2019 will offervaluation thanits peers.a good buying opportunity.TencentBUY, TP HK$341.87, HK$314.00closeChina TMT underperformed the market in2018The resumption of online game approval isexpected to

8、boost sentiment on sector In terms of share-price performance, on average, the HK-listed TMT non-hardware namescompanies, including Tencent. Other business, outperformed the hardware names, but both segments underperformed the overall market such as online advertising and online in 2018. On average,

9、 share prices in the TMT non-hardware sector dropped 26.1% from entertainment, will support medium to long- beginning of 2018 vs. -29.4% for the hardware sector, -13.6% for the HSI, -13.5% for theterm growth.HSCEl and -20.9% for MSCI China. The TMT non-hardware sector performance Summary valuation m

10、etricsP/E(x)Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20FChina104.6880.7166.78InspurInternational12.4611.349.8430.5325.0220.05P/BV (x)Dec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20FChina1.261.251.23InspurInternational1.366.184.82Dividend YieldDec-18F Dec-19F Dec-20FChina0.00%0.37%0.30%InspurInternational1.47%1.76%2.03%0.33%0.33%0.33

11、%AnalystsMark PoT (852) 3698 6318E HYPERLINK mailto:markpo.hk markpo.hkWong Chi ManT (852) 3698 6317E HYPERLINK mailto:cmwong.hk cmwong.hkdragged down by the weak share price performance of sub-sectors like online entertainment and e-commerce, while IT services and media outperformed.The TMT hardwar

12、e sector was dragged down by handset component names and semiconductor names, given weaker-than-expected shipment volume, especially news about Apples order cut and concerns about peaking of the semiconductor cycle. In 2018, macrofactorssuchasthetradedisputebetweenChinaandUS,RMBdepreciation,slower e

13、conomic growth and weaker-than-expected downstream demand also put pressure on the China TMT sector. We see divergence in the valuation of HK-listed TMT names, with those under major investment themes trading at a much higher valuation, while those sensitive to concerns about the growth outlook have

14、 been de-rated. Names with larger caps and high trading liquidity have performed better than their smaller cappeers.We still prefer non-hardware over hardwareGiven the increasing macro uncertainties, we believe that investors will remain short-term focused and that the share price performance of the

15、 HK-listed TMT names in particular might remain volatile in 1H 2019, especially in Q1 2019, given the seasonality impact and the lack of near-term catalysts. However, industry development, including higher IT spending by corporates and government, continuing cloud migration, the adoption of 5G- rela

16、tedtechnologiesandapplications,andsupportivegovernmentpolicies,remainsintact. WebelievethatearlyQ22019willbeagoodentrypointfortheleadingTMTnames,asmight see a realization of share price catalysts, such as the relaxation of government regulations on other verticals in Chinas internet sector, the 5G t

17、imetable and road map release by telecom services providers, and more concrete policies to boost economic growth.We still expect our preferred names to report decent growth in 2019 and 2020, given favourable industry development trends. In general, we prefer the TMT non-hardware sector over the hard

18、ware sector, as the former will be less impacted by the mature hardware market, and leading names will gain market share. In the non-hardware TMT sector, we believe that IT services, online video, AI development, IT services, online advertising, and 5G-related applications are the hot spots, and tha

19、t the leading players in mobile games will continue to gain market share. In the hardware segment, the leading players with exposure to high-growth areas, such as 5G, optical sensors, IoV, IoT, IIOT and the Industrial Internet, will continue to benefit from industry development. However, TMThardware

20、namesinsegmentswithconcernsaboutthegrowthoutlookwillcontinueto underperform.Powered by the EFA PlatformTable of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Key Charts3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Investment Summary4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Investment Positives5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Divergent share price performance

21、 in Chinas TMT sector. Non-hardware outperformed hardware5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 TheITservicessectorissizableandgrowing10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Cloud computing will remain a growth driver15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Changing industry trends offer new opportunities form Chinas Internet sector18 HYPERL

22、INK l _bookmark7 5G global investment in 2019 and beyond24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Overall smartphone shipment growth will remain unexciting; the focus is on specific components28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Shift in focus from toC to toB, especially to the Industrial Internet34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Th

23、e Chinese government continues to promote the sector36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Company Briefs39IT Services HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 DC Holdings (861.HK)40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Inspur International (596.HK)43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Kingdee (268.HK)46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Sinosoft (1297.HK)49Chi

24、na Internet HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Tencent (700.HK)52Telecommunications Equipment HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 China Tower (788.HK)55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 O-Net (877.HK)58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 YOFC (6869.HK)61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 ZTE (763.HK)64Others HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Pentamaster (1665.H

25、K)67KEY CHARTSThe ChinaUS gap is narrowingChina is now the worlds second-largest country in IT spending, behindtheUS.ThegapbetweenChinaandUSintermsoftotalIT spending has been narrowing. Chinas IT spending was about 41.1% of that of the US in 2017, up from 29.4% in2009.Chinas public cloud-computing m

26、arket is growingCloud computing in China has been growing faster than the global average. The public cloud-services market in China reached RMB17.0bn in 2016, up 66% YoY. The overall cloud-computing market reached RMB51.5bn in 2016 and is expected to grow strongly to reach RMB136.6bn in 2020. The Ch

27、ina public cloud market is expected to see a five-year CAGR of 37.2% from 2016 to 2020F.Data-driven business will be a hot topicGiven increasing digitization, massive amounts of data generated by online activity, and the maturity of technologies such as Big Data & AI, the TMT non-hardware names have

28、 been developing data-driven business models.Forecast for 5G connections in China5G connections, including IoT and IoV, will report strong growth from 2020 due to the global 5G network roll-out.SOURCES: CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, BLOOMBERG, IDC, WINDOpportunities along with challengesInvestment su

29、mmaryDespite their share price outperformance, we reiterate the view that the China software/IT servicesmarket,especiallytheenterpriseandgovernmentITmarket,isinaseculargrowth cycle, given continuous IT investment. Cloud migration and the adoption of big data analysis is a continuous process, and the

30、 cloud computing/big data analysis segment is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. Local IT services companies are capturing the growth potential of the cloud-computing segment in China. The market has concerns about the outlook for IT services names, given the economic slowdown. We bel

31、ieve that corporations will continue to invest in IT to boost efficiency and reduce costs, giventheslowdowninturnovergrowth.WestillpreferKingdee0268.HK,Inspur0596.HK and DC Holdings 0861.HK.We expect leaders in sub-segments of the China Internet sector, such as online games and online advertising, t

32、o deliver better-than-feared results in 2019, especially in 2H 2019, givenpotentialregulatoryeasingandbettercostcontrol.Webelievethatthemarketmight remain cautious on the China internet sector in Q1 2019, as operating performance in Q4 2018wasunderpressure.Webelievethepotentialsharepriceweaknessafte

33、rtheQ42018 results announcement in Mar 2019 may offer a good buying opportunity. The Chinese internetcompaniesareexpectedtohaveaneasiercomparisonin2H2019,giventhelower base in 2H 2018. The Chinese government is expected to remain in tightening mode regarding the internet financial/FinTech sector. We

34、 believe the leading players in the Fintech segment will gain market share, but other verticals may outperform the internet financialsegment.Improvedmarketsentimentwouldboostthesharepriceperformanceof 0700.HK. One of the hottest topics in the TMT hardware segment is the 5G roll- out, especially afte

35、r spectrum allocation in China in early Dec 2018. We reiterate the view that5Gdevelopmentisaglobalinvestmenttheme,thoughChinaisoneofthemajorglobal markets. We believe that telecommunications equipment-related names, such as China 788.HK, China Communications Services 0552.HK, ZTE 0763.HK, O-Net 0877

36、.HKandYOFC6869.HK,willbethemainbeneficiaries.However,themarketmight have concerns about some equipment makers, given news flow about a ban on Chinese equipment by overseas governments. The market might prefer China-centric names with less exposure to overseas markets. Despite their relative outperfo

37、rmance in 2H 2018, we still expect the telecommunications equipment names to continue to outperform in2019.Over time, as telecommunications services providers roll out 5G networks more newITsystemsandmanagementsoftwaremayberequired,whichoffersgrowthpotential for IT services companies, like DC Holdin

38、gs, AsiaInfo 1675.HK, Inspur, and ChinaSoft 0354.HK. Meanwhile, mature 5G consumer electronics (especially handsets) will erupt. At the later stage of the 5G construction cycle, the telecommunications services providers will slowly reduce their CAPEX and generate more revenue from enterprise busines

39、s. Meanwhile, enterprises with various 5G applications (such as ultra HD (4K/8K) mobile streaming, pervasive gaming, mobile AR/VR mixed reality services, autonomous vehicles, Smart Health and Smart Energy) will benefit from the deep, dense 5Gnetwork.We believe that the Industrial Internet will attra

40、ct more attention and that it will be a major investment theme in 2019, as (1) major technologies for the Industrial Internet are getting more and more mature, (2) the government has continuously released supportive documents for the development of the Industrial Internet, and (3) the internet giant

41、s have shifted their focus from the toC to toB segment.The smartphone market is maturing, resulting in slower growth; volume shipments are expected to report a drop in 2018. We maintain the view that near-term news flow is on the negative side, especially regarding orders by major brands, which may

42、cap upside forhandsetcomponentnames.Themarketislikelytofocusontheoldinvestmentthemes, such as specification upgrades and the adoption of new technologies. The market focus has shifted to volume shipment trends for Apple, as the market is worrying about Apple reporting a decline in iPhone shipment in

43、 2019. Concern about the Apple camp will also drag down the share price performance of Android campnames.We believe the correction in Q4 2018 offers a good re-visit opportunity for TMT names, especially our preferred names, such as Kingdee, Inspur, DC Holdings, O-Net and ZTE, China Tower, CCS, Sinos

44、oft 1297.HK, Tencent and Pentamaster 1665.HK.Investment positivesDivergentsharepriceperformanceinChinasTMTNon-hardware outperformedhardwareHK-listed TMT hardware and non-hardware names, in general, have underperformed the market since the beginning of 2018. In terms of share-price performance, HK-li

45、sted TMT hardware shares dropped 29.4% in 2018, underperforming the HSI, HSCEI and MCSCI China.Inthehardwaresector,handsetcomponentnames,suchasAAC2018.HK,Sunny Optical 2382.HK, 1347.HK and Truly 0732.HK, dropped 59.2%, on average, andsemiconductornames,suchasSMIC0981.HK,underperformedthehardwaresect

46、or. Despite the share price correction of ZTE (due to the export ban by the US government), the communications equipment segment dropped 15.8%, outperforming the hardware sector. We also saw divergence in the share price performance of HK-listed TMT non- hardware names. IT services names, including

47、Kingdee and Inspur, were clear outperformersamongTMT-non-hardwarenames.Duetogovernmentregulatorytightening, other sub-segments, including online games & social networking, and e-commerce underperformed. In the online game segment, IGG was an exception, as it has higher overseas exposure. In the IT S

48、ervices sector, on average, share prices dropped 6.1% in 20178 vs. -38.1% for online game & social networking, -31.8% for online entertainment, - 17.9% for e-commerce, and -7.5% formedia.In our the share-price underperformance of hardware and non-hardware names in 2018 was due to: a) a slowdown in e

49、nd demand, such as the decline in handset shipments and slower online game industry growth; b) the trade dispute between China andtheUS;c)changesintheregulatoryenvironment,especiallyfornon-hardwarenames;d) concerns about Chinas economic growth; d) RMB depreciation; and e) the weak performance of siz

50、able IPOs, such as Meituan 3690.HK, Xiaomi 1810.HK and Tongcheng-Elong 0780.HK. After their weak performance in 2018, we believe that investorshavebecomeshort-termfocusedandthatthesharepriceperformanceoftheHK- listed names, in particular, might remain volatile in Q1 2019, given the seasonality impac

51、t,lackofclarityontradenegotiationsbetweenChinaandtheUS,andconcernsabout slow economic growth. However, we believe industry development, including the adoption of technologies and applications, such as 5G, AI, Big Data Analysis, IoV, the Industrial Internet, higher IT spending by corporates and gover

52、nment, continuous cloud migration and supportive government policies, remains intact. We believe that late Q1 2019 or early Q22019willbethegoodentrypointsfortheleadingTMTnames,aswemightseeashare price correction during the 2018 results announcements. We believe that the leading names should continue

53、 to gain market share from their peers. The valuation of HK-listed TMT names has returned to a reasonable level, as they might report better-than-feared resultsin2019aftercostcontrolandmarketsharegains.WeprefertheTMTnon-hardware sectoroverthehardwaresector,asitwillbelessimpactedbythematurehardwarema

54、rket andpotentialeasingbyChinesegovernment.Inthenon-hardwareTMTsector,webelieve thatonlineentertainment,onlineadvertising,AIdevelopmentandtheDataDrivenConcept arethehotspotsandthattheleadingplayersinmobilegameswillcontinuetogainmarket share. In the hardware segment, the leading players with exposure

55、 to high growth areas, especially 5G-related names, will continue to benefit from industrydevelopment.Figure 1: Relative share price performance of TMT hardware namesFigure 1: Relative share price performance of TMT hardware namesAACSUNNY OPTICALCOWELLQ-TECHFIT HON TENG LTDTRULYTONGDA2.0CHINA DISPLA

56、Y OPTSMICHUA HONGASMCZTEYOFCNANFANGO-NETLENOVOJU TENGTCLESKYWORTHMEITUCOMBACCSChina TowerHang SengHSCEI1.8ASMC, Lenovo, CCS, CHina Tower and Nanfangare outperformers1.00.2Handsets components names are underperformers in 20180.0Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18 Mar-18Apr-18May-18 May-18Jun-18Jul-18Jul-18Aug-1

57、8Sep-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Nov-18Dec-18SOURCES: CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, BLOOMBERGFigure 2: Relative share price performance of TMT non-hardware namesFigure 2: Relative share price performance of TMT non-hardware namesKINGDEETENCENTHang Seng Alibaba PicturesSINOSOFTTIAN GE HSCEI FORGAMEINSPURNETDR

58、AGON IGGChina LITCHINASOFTKINGSOFTHC Group Meituan DianpingDC HoldingsCHANJETChina Youzan3.02.52.01.51.00.5Most of China internet names were under selling pressure in 20180.0Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18SOURCES: CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, BLOOMBERGF

59、igure 3: Peer comparison TMT hardwareSOURCES: CGIS RESEARCH, COMPANY DATA, BLOOMBERGFigure 4: Peer comparison TMT non-hardwareTickerCompanyPEP/SalesP/BROEROADiv yieldShare Price PerformancePriceMarket Cap 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F20172018F20172018F20172018F20172018F1M3M6MLcyUS$mxxxxxx%HK Listed IT Ser

60、vices & Internet Names268 HKKingdee6.922,91552.440.00.2-11.3-18.8-13.81297 HKSinosoft2.04320.718.817.8-6.8-13.2-31.3354 HKChinasoft3.891,20812.014.00.5-15.4-25.5-36.4596 HKInspur3.394935.913.08.5