經(jīng)濟(jì)雙語(yǔ)閱讀管理學(xué)與財(cái)務(wù)知識(shí)分析匯總

1、PAGE PAGE 409經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人雜志雙雙語(yǔ)閱讀：CConsummer sppendinng in Asia：Shopaaholiccs wanntedConsumeer speendingg in AAsia亞洲消費(fèi)狀況Shopahoolics wanteed購(gòu)物狂時(shí)代該來來了？Jun 25tth 20009 | HHONG KKONGFrom Thhe Ecoonomisst priint edditionnCan Asiians rreplacce Ameericanns as a driiver oof gloobal ggrowthh?亞洲人能夠代替替美國(guó)人做全全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)嗎？

2、ASIAS emergging eeconommies aare boouncinng bacck mucch morre strronglyy thann any otherrs. Whille Ameericas inddustriial prroducttion ccontinnued tto sliide inn May, outpput inn emerrging Asia hhas reegaineed itss pre-crisiis levvel (see cchart 1). Thiis is largeely duue to Chinaa; butt althhough p

3、roduuctionn in tthe reegions smaaller econoomies is sttill wwell ddown oon a yyear aago, iit is rebouundingg in tthose counttries too. Taiwaans inddustriial ouutput rose by ann annuualiseed 80% in tthe thhree mmonthss to MMay coompareed witth thee prevvious threee montths. JPMoorgan estimmates that

4、emergging AAsias GDPP has grownn by aan annnualissed 7% in tthe seecond quartter.時(shí)下亞洲新興經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體們的恢恢復(fù)勢(shì)頭比其其他任何國(guó)家家都要迅猛。在在美國(guó)工業(yè)生生產(chǎn)繼續(xù)下滑滑的5月，亞亞洲新興國(guó)家家的產(chǎn)出已經(jīng)經(jīng)回到了它們們危機(jī)前的水水平(見表一)。這很大程程度上要?dú)w功功于中國(guó)，此此外盡管該地地區(qū)較小經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)體的生產(chǎn)比比去年仍有所所下降，但最最近這些國(guó)家家也在漸漸恢恢復(fù)。臺(tái)灣截截至5月的工工業(yè)產(chǎn)出年度度化增長(zhǎng)較前前三個(gè)月上升升了80%。摩摩根大通預(yù)計(jì)計(jì)二季度亞洲洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體體年度化增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)率將達(dá)到77%。Asias abi

5、liity too decoouple from Ameriica reeflectts thee factt thatt the regioons downnturn was ccausedd onlyy parttly byy the slumpp in AAmericcan acctivitty. In mmost AAsian econoomies falliing doomestiic demmand wwas moore immportaant thhan thhe droop in net eexportts in explaainingg the collaapse iin G

6、DPP growwth. The surgee in ffood aand ennergy pricees in the ffirst half of 20008 sqqueezeed proofits and sspendiing poower. Tighhter mmonetaary poolicy aimedd at ccurbinng infflatioon theen furrther chokeed dommesticc demaand.亞洲與美國(guó)脫鉤鉤的能力說明明該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)下滑只是部部分由于美國(guó)國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的的影響。大多多數(shù)亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)體內(nèi)需下降降要比凈出口口下降對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)影響更大，

7、這這就解釋了GGDP增長(zhǎng)率暴跌的原原因。20008年上半年年食品和能源源價(jià)格的暴漲漲讓利潤(rùn)和消消費(fèi)能力雙雙雙縮減。從緊緊的貨幣政策策旨在遏制通通脹卻進(jìn)一步步使得內(nèi)需受受到抑制。The reccent rrecoveery inn induustriaal prooductiion reeflectts thee end of deestockking bby mannufactturerss as wwell aas thee largge fisscal sstimullus byy mostt goveernmennts. But the bboost from both of thhes

8、e ffactorrs willl fadde. Meannwhilee, expport mmarketts in develloped econoomies are llikelyy to rremainn weakk. So tthe reecoverry in Asiann econnomiess willl stummble uunlesss domeestic spendding, notabbly coonsumpption, perkks up.近期工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的的回復(fù)顯示制制造商產(chǎn)品積積壓的狀況正正在結(jié)束，同同時(shí)多國(guó)政府府大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃也也已起效。但但是這些原因因造成的增長(zhǎng)

9、長(zhǎng)終會(huì)消失，同同時(shí)面向發(fā)達(dá)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的出出口市場(chǎng)看上上去依舊疲軟軟。因此除非非讓內(nèi)需，尤尤其是讓消費(fèi)費(fèi)振作起來，否否則亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)體的回復(fù)之之路依舊前途途坎坷。Consumeers appeetite to sppend vvariess hugeely accross the rregionn. In Chhina, Indiaa and Indonnesia spendding hhas inncreassed byy annuual raates oof morre thaan 5% durinng thee globbal doownturrn. Chinaas rettail ssale

10、s have soareed by 15% oover tthe paast yeear. Thiss overrstatees thee truee growwth raate beecausee it iincluddes goovernmment ppurchaases, but oofficiial hoousehoold suurveyss sugggest tthat rreal sspendiing iss growwing aat a sstill-impreessivee ratee of 99%. In tthe yeear too May, salees of house

11、ehold electtroniccs werre up by 122%, cllothinng by 22% aand caars byy a sttunninng 47%.消費(fèi)者消費(fèi)的胃胃口在這一地地區(qū)有著巨大大的差異性。中中國(guó)、印度和和印尼在全球球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑期期間消費(fèi)額年年度化增長(zhǎng)率率超過了5%。中國(guó)的零零售銷售額去去年暴增了115%,但這個(gè)數(shù)字是是被夸大的,因?yàn)樗ɡ苏少?gòu)購(gòu)的花銷,但但是官方的家家庭調(diào)查顯示示真實(shí)的消費(fèi)費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)率依然然達(dá)到了令人人印象深刻的的9%。今年年截至五月，家家用電器銷售售增長(zhǎng)12%，服服裝銷售增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)22%而汽汽車銷售增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)則達(dá)到了驚驚人的47%。Elsewh

12、eere inn the regioon, sppendinng hass stummbled, squeeezed by hiigher unempploymeent annd lowwer waages. In Hoong Koong, Singgaporee and Southh Koreea reaal connsumerr spennding was 44-5% llower in thhe firrst quuarterr thann a yeear eaarlierr, a mmuch bbiggerr dropp thann in AAmericca. But Fredeeri

13、c NNeumannn, ann econnomistt at HHSBC, sees tentaative signss thatt spennding is piickingg up. Taiwaans rettail ssales rose in Maay forr the thirdd conssecutiive moonth. Depaartmennt-stoore saales iin Souuth Koorea rrose bby 5% in thhe yeaar to May.該地區(qū)其它地方方由于受增高高的失業(yè)率和和工資水平下下降的影響，消消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)步履履蹣跚。香港港、新加坡和和

14、韓國(guó)一季度度真實(shí)消費(fèi)較較去年下降了了4-5%，這這比美國(guó)的情情況還要糟糕。但是是匯豐銀行的的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家弗弗雷德里希-紐曼認(rèn)為，當(dāng)當(dāng)下消費(fèi)止跌跌上升的趨勢(shì)勢(shì)已初露端倪倪。臺(tái)灣的零零售業(yè)銷售額額到五月為止止已連續(xù)3月月上升。韓國(guó)國(guó)百貨商場(chǎng)銷銷售額到五月為為止也上升了了5%。It is ooften argueed thaat emeergingg Asiaan ecoonomiees havve larrge cuurrentt-accoount ssurpluuses-and aare thhus noot pullling theirr fairr weigght inn the worldd-

15、becauuse coonsumeers liike too savee rathher thhan sppend. Yet this does not rreallyy fit the ffacts. Duriing thhe passt fivve yeaars coonsumeer speendingg in eemergiing Assia haas groown byy an aannuall averrage oof 6.5%, mmuch ffasterr thann in aany otther ppart oof thee worlld. It iis truue thaat

16、 connsumpttion hhas faallen as a sharee of GGDP, bbut thhat iss becaause iinvesttment and eexportts havve groown evven faaster, not becauuse sppendinng hass beenn weakk. Relaative to Ammericaan connsumerr spennding, Asiaan connsumpttion hhas sooared (see cchart 2).人們通常認(rèn)為新新興亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)體有著大量量的國(guó)際收支支經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目順順差，而

17、這卻卻并不能使它它們?cè)谑澜缳Q(mào)貿(mào)易中占有應(yīng)應(yīng)有的比重，因因?yàn)閬喼薜南M(fèi)者傾向儲(chǔ)儲(chǔ)蓄多過消費(fèi)費(fèi)。但這卻并不真正符符合事實(shí)，在在過去五年中中崛起的亞洲洲國(guó)家消費(fèi)年年均增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)達(dá)到了6.5%，這要要比世界上任任何其他地區(qū)區(qū)都要快。消消費(fèi)占GDPP比重確實(shí)下下降了，但這這并不表明消費(fèi)減弱弱，而是因?yàn)闉橥顿Y和出口口增長(zhǎng)的更快快。與美國(guó)消消費(fèi)相比，亞亞洲消費(fèi)是暴暴增了。(見表二)In mostt Asiaan ecoonomiees, prrivatee conssumptiion iss 50-660% off GDP, whicch is not oout off linee withh ratees

18、 in counttries at siimilarr leveels off incoome ellsewheere. Chinaa, howwever, is aan excceptioon. Privvate cconsummptionn therre felll froom 46% of GGDP inn 20000 to oonly 335% laast yeear-half that in Ammericaa. In ddollarr termms, sppendinng is only one-ssixth of thhat inn Amerrica. (Singaapores

19、connsumpttion iis alsso loww, at just underr 40% of GDDP.)在大多數(shù)亞洲經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，個(gè)個(gè)人消費(fèi)占GGDP的500-60%，這這個(gè)數(shù)字并不不比收入水平平相同的其他他任何地方低低。然而中國(guó)國(guó)是個(gè)例外。個(gè)個(gè)人消費(fèi)占GGDP從20000年的46%下下降到了去年年的35%，這這個(gè)數(shù)字才是是美國(guó)的一半半。以美元結(jié)結(jié)算的話，消消費(fèi)只有美國(guó)國(guó)的六分之一一。(新加坡的消消費(fèi)也很低，不不足GDP的的40%)This exxplainns whyy Chinnas govvernmeent haas reccentlyy takeen bollder aact

20、ionn thann otheers too boosst connsumpttion. Overr the past six mmonthss the goverrnmentt in BBeijinng hass intrroduceed a hhost oof inccentivves too encoouragee housseholdds to open theirr walllets. Ruraal ressidentts gett subssidiess for buyinng vehhicless and otherr goodds succh as televvisionns,

21、 reefrigeeratorrs, coomputeers annd mobbile pphoness; urbban reesidennts geet a ssubsiddy if they tradee in ccars aand hoome apppliannces ffor neew gooods; ttax raates oon loww-emisssion cars have also been cut. Therre is huge potenntial for hhigherr conssumptiion inn the counttrysidde as incommes r

22、iise: oonly 330% off ruraal houusehollds haave a refriigerattor, ffor exxamplee, commparedd withh virttuallyy all urbann housseholdds.這也解釋了中國(guó)國(guó)政府為何最最近比任何國(guó)國(guó)家都大力促促進(jìn)消費(fèi)。在在過去6個(gè)月月中北京政府府頒布一攬子子激勵(lì)政策來來鼓勵(lì)家庭打打開他們的錢錢包。農(nóng)村居居民得到了購(gòu)購(gòu)買車輛和電電視、冰箱、電電腦以及手機(jī)機(jī)等商品的政政策傾斜；城城市居民則得得到了購(gòu)買汽汽車和家電換換新方面的政政策傾斜；小小排量汽車的的稅率也被下下調(diào)。隨著農(nóng)農(nóng)村收入增加加，

23、消費(fèi)上升升有著巨大潛力力：與城市家家庭近乎每家家一臺(tái)相比，只只有30%的的農(nóng)村家庭擁?yè)碛须姳?。The govvernmeent haas alsso inttroducced seeverall meassures this year to immprovee the sociaal saffety nnet, ssuch aas speendingg moree on hhealthh caree, pennsionss and paymeents tto loww-incoome hoousehoolds. On JJune 119th itt ordeered aall sttate-

24、oowned firmss thatt had listeed on the sstockmmarkett sincce 20005 to transsfer 110% off theiir shaares tto thee Natiional Sociaal Seccurityy Fundd to sshore up itts asssets. The shortt-termm impaact iss likeely too be mmodestt but if suuch meeasurees easse houusehollds worrries aabout futurre penns

25、ionss and healtth carre, itt coulld in the llong tterm eencourrage tthem tto savve lesss andd spennd morre.政府也在今年頒頒布了幾項(xiàng)舉舉措改善社保保網(wǎng)絡(luò)，比如如對(duì)醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生生領(lǐng)域加大投投入、向低收收入家庭發(fā)放放養(yǎng)老金和收收入補(bǔ)助。66月19日還還命令20005年以來的的國(guó)有上市公公司向國(guó)家社社?；疝D(zhuǎn)讓讓10%的股股份，以穩(wěn)固固后者資產(chǎn)。雖雖然看起來短短期效果有限限，但是如果果這一系列舉舉措能夠緩解解家庭對(duì)未來來養(yǎng)老金和醫(yī)醫(yī)療問題的擔(dān)擔(dān)憂，長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的的看還是能鼓鼓勵(lì)人們存得得更少花得更更多的。A

26、notherr way to booost cconsummptionn is tto makke it easieer to borroow. In mmost AAsian econoomies houseehold debt is leess thhan 500% of GDP, compaared wwith aaroundd 100% in mmany ddevelooped eeconommies; in Chhina aand Inndia iit is less than 15%. Southh Koreea is the bbig exxceptiion: hhousehho

27、lds have as muuch deebt reelativve to theirr incoome ass Amerricanss and theirr saviing raate haas falllen oover tthe paast deecade from 18% oof dissposabble inncome to onnly 4%. In mmany oother Asiann econnomiess finaancingg for consuumer ddurablles iss virttuallyy noneexisteent. Prommisinggly, tth

28、e Chhinesee bankk reguulatorr annoouncedd drafft rulles inn May to alllow ddomesttic annd forreign instiitutioons too set up coonsumeer-finnance firmss to ooffer persoonal lloans for cconsummer-gooods ppurchaases.另一個(gè)刺激消費(fèi)費(fèi)的方法是讓讓借貸更容易易。多數(shù)亞洲洲國(guó)家家庭借借貸不足GDDP的50%，與此對(duì)比比發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體體這個(gè)數(shù)字在在100%左左右；在中國(guó)國(guó)和印度則更更是少于15%。韓

29、韓國(guó)卻是個(gè)特特例：與美國(guó)國(guó)一樣，家庭庭舉債和他們們收入一樣多多，儲(chǔ)蓄率也也已經(jīng)在過去去十年中從可可支配收入的的18%下降降到了只有44%。在其他他亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體體中面向耐用消費(fèi)費(fèi)品的金融服服務(wù)事實(shí)上是是不存在的。幸幸運(yùn)的是，中中國(guó)銀監(jiān)機(jī)構(gòu)構(gòu)已經(jīng)在5月月宣布了一些些規(guī)則草案，允允許中外機(jī)構(gòu)構(gòu)建立消費(fèi)金金融公司為消消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買商商品提供個(gè)人人貸款。These mmeasurres arre a mmodestt stepp in tthe riight ddirecttion. But a biggger ttest oof Asiian goovernmments resoolve tto shiif

30、t thhe ballance of grrowth from exporrts toowardss domeestic spendding iis wheether they will alloww theiir excchangee ratees to rise. A reevaluaation wouldd liftt conssumerss reall purcchasinng powwer annd givve firrms reeason to shhift rresourrces ttowardds prooducinng forr the domesstic mmarkett.

31、 But so faar, poolicymmakerss havee beenn reluuctantt to llet cuurrenccies rrise ttoo faast.這些措施只不過過是正確方向向上有限的一一小步。但亞亞洲各國(guó)政府府想要將增長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)平衡由出口口向內(nèi)需轉(zhuǎn)變變的更大實(shí)驗(yàn)驗(yàn)?zāi)芊癯晒⑷Q于它們們是否允許本本國(guó)貨幣匯率率上升。這種種再估價(jià)將會(huì)會(huì)提升消費(fèi)者者的實(shí)際消費(fèi)費(fèi)能力，并讓讓企業(yè)有理由由轉(zhuǎn)移資源為為國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)生生產(chǎn)商品。但但迄今為止，政政策制定者們們都不情愿讓讓貨幣升值太太快。Asian sspendiing iss alreeady aan impportannt e

32、nggine oof gloobal ggrowthh. Evenn befoore thhe criisis, emergging AAsias connsumerr spennding contrributeed sliightlyy moree (in abbsolutte dolllar tterms) to tthe grrowth in gllobal demannd thaan didd Amerricas. But it coould bbe eveen biggger iif Asiians eenjoyeed thee fulll fruiits off theiir ha

33、rrd labbour, ratheer thaan subbsidissing WWesterrn connsumerrs thrrough underrvalueed currrenciies. It iis timme forr an eeven ggreateer shiift inn spennding powerr fromm the West to thhe Easst.亞洲的消費(fèi)已經(jīng)經(jīng)是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要要引擎。甚至至在危機(jī)之前前，亞洲新興興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的消消費(fèi)者對(duì)全球球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的的貢獻(xiàn)也要比比美國(guó)消費(fèi)者者稍大一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)點(diǎn)(在完全以美美元作為結(jié)算單位的前前提下)。而如果亞亞洲人能夠充充

34、分享用他們們辛勤勞動(dòng)的的果實(shí)，而不不是通過低估估本國(guó)貨幣補(bǔ)補(bǔ)貼西方消費(fèi)費(fèi)者的話，這這種作用將會(huì)會(huì)更明顯?，F(xiàn)現(xiàn)在是將消費(fèi)費(fèi)能力從西向東做更大大轉(zhuǎn)移的時(shí)候候了。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人雜志雙雙語(yǔ)閱讀：RReturnn of tthe grrave-ddancerrs墳?zāi)刮枵哒哂只貋砹薆anks aand prrivatee equiity銀行和私人股本本Return of thhe graave-daancerss掃墓舞者又回來來了Jun 4thh 20099 | NEEW YORRKFrom Thhe Ecoonomisst priint edditionnBuy-outt firmms chaafe unnd

35、er oownersship rrestriictionns, buut pille in nonetthelesss盡管被嚴(yán)格的所所有權(quán)監(jiān)管挫挫傷，但是投投標(biāo)人還是有有一大堆PRIVATEE equiity haas beeen bittten oonce, but iit doeesnt do shy. Thouugh soome off its betteer-knoown naames wwere lleft sscarreed aftter innvestiing tooo earrly inn trouubled bankss and thriffts-rememmber TTPG

36、s dissastroous fooray iinto WWashinngton Mutuaal-buy-oout shhops aare liining up foor a ssecondd shott at ffinancce as confiidencee pickks up againn.私人股本已經(jīng)上上過一回當(dāng)了了，但是他們們并不為此感感到害羞。盡盡管他們中已已經(jīng)對(duì)過早投投資那些問題題銀行和存款款機(jī)構(gòu)而留下下了可怕的名名聲-記得摩根根大通對(duì)華互互銀行損失慘慘重的收購(gòu)-但是現(xiàn)在當(dāng)當(dāng)對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)重拾信心后后，第二輪的的收購(gòu)者們又又排成了隊(duì)。For mucch of 2008 dealmm

37、akingg was dead. But sincee the sale of InndyMacc, a ccollappsed CCalifoorniann lendder, tto a ggroup of prrivatee buyeers inn Januuary, “the logjaam hass brokken”, says Josh Lerneer of Harvaard Businness Schoool. In rrecentt weekks Blaackstoone, FFortreess, CCarlylle, Wiilbur Ross and ootherss have

38、e bougght sttakes in baanks, amongg themm Florridas Firrst Sooutherrn andd BankkUniteed, thhe staates larrgest home-grownn lendder. Seveeral oother dealss are said to bee in tthe woorks, incluuding the ppossibble saale off Atlaanta-bbased Silveerton Bank, seizzed byy reguulatorrs in May, to a groupp

39、 thatt inclludes Carlyyle. Biddding wwars aare evven brreakinng outt.2008年很多多收購(gòu)幾乎停停滯。但自從從1月份私人人買家團(tuán)體對(duì)對(duì)加州一個(gè)名名為IndyyMac的破破產(chǎn)貸款公司司的收購(gòu)“打打破了僵局”，哈哈佛商學(xué)院的的喬希.勒納如是說。最近幾幾周，黑石公公司、要塞公公司、凱雷集集團(tuán)、威爾伯伯羅斯等都都在購(gòu)買銀行行的股權(quán)，其其中有佛羅里里州最大的貸貸款機(jī)構(gòu)，第第一南方聯(lián)合合銀行。還有有幾個(gè)收購(gòu)案案據(jù)說也在進(jìn)行中中，包括亞特特蘭大的希爾爾佛頓銀行，其其在五月被監(jiān)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)責(zé)令令停業(yè)，買方方包括了凱雷雷集團(tuán)。競(jìng)標(biāo)標(biāo)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)甚至至都要

40、爆發(fā)了了。Privatee equiity haas pilles off unalllocatted caapitall, altthoughh it hhas beecome much more diffiicult to wrrest uundrawwn funnds frrom innvestoors. It aalso hhas a lot mmore rraw maateriaal to work with, as tthe paace off bankk faillures accelleratees (see cchart). Hunndredss of llenderrs w

41、illl neeed hellp to surviive buut mosst larrge baanks aare tooo cappital-consttraineed to step in. Thosse thaat havve raiised ffresh equitty, suuch ass JPMoorgan Chasee, willl usee it tto reppay taaxpayeers.盡管它越來越難難從投資者那那里獲得那些些不打算取回回的資金，私私人股本仍然然懷揣大量無無處可投的資資金。隨著銀銀行破產(chǎn)步伐伐的加快，他他會(huì)有更多的的原材料可以以利用。數(shù)以以百計(jì)的貸款款機(jī)

42、構(gòu)需要幫幫助來存活，但但是多數(shù)大銀銀行對(duì)準(zhǔn)入資資本的限制太太嚴(yán)格。那些些獲得注資的的，如摩根大大通，將會(huì)用用它來償還納納稅人。Hence tthe foocus oon priivate equitty. The favouured sstrateegy iss to ssnap uup a ssmall bank, heallthy oor nott, andd turnn it iinto aa vehiicle tto scooop upp failled loocal rrivalss. Johnn Kanaas, a veterran baanker chargged wiith r

43、eevivinng BannkUnitted, ssees iin it the ffoundaation of a regioonal ppowerhhouse. The Floriida maarket is paarticuularlyy attrractivve, hee sayss, as many compeetitorrs theere arre shaackledd by rregulaatory or goovernmment rrestriictionns.因此焦點(diǎn)放到了了私人股本。有有利的戰(zhàn)略是是搶購(gòu)一個(gè)小小銀行，不管管健康與否，然然后用它做媒媒介來鏟平那那些失敗的當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)?/p>

44、對(duì)手。約約翰.喀納斯，一一個(gè)資深銀行行家，擔(dān)任銀銀行聯(lián)盟的復(fù)蘇蘇，將它看作作是地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)動(dòng)力的基礎(chǔ)礎(chǔ)。佛羅里達(dá)達(dá)州的市場(chǎng)非非常吸引人，他他說，這里很很多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者都都被政府監(jiān)管管或限制所桎桎梏。Investiing iss stilll rissky. Smalller bbanks are rriddleed witth commmerciial-prropertty loaans, wwhich are ggoing bad aat an alarmming rrate. Ameriican bbanks loann-losss reseerves are ffallinng eveer fu

45、rrther behinnd acttual llossess and now ccover just 70% oof thee totaal, acccordiing too Mooddys, a ratinng ageency. But buyerrs aree growwing ccannieer, poouncinng onlly oncce a bbank hhas beeen seeized and iinsistting tthe goovernmment sshouldders mmuch oof thee downnside in looss-shharingg agreee

46、mentts.投資依然是有風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的。小型型銀行飽受商商業(yè)物業(yè)貸款款之苦，這些些貸款正在以以驚人的速度度變?yōu)閴馁~。根根據(jù)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)構(gòu)穆迪的統(tǒng)計(jì)計(jì)，美國(guó)銀行行的壞賬準(zhǔn)備備只是涵蓋了了全部損失的的70%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于實(shí)際損損失。The biggger pprobleem forr buy-out ffirms is poosed bby lonng-staandingg resttrictiions oon bannk takkeoverrs by non-ffinanccial ffirms. Thosse unwwillinng to becomme bannk-hollding compaanies

47、, withh the extraa reguulatioon thaat enttails, havee to mmake ddo witth a mmaximuum staake off 33% (and vvotingg righhts off lesss thann halff thatt). Acqquisittions are tthus oonly ppossibble viia “cllub” ddeals, in wwhich severral buuyers band togetther aand reegulattors ppolicee the arranngemenn

48、t to ensurre theey aree not actinng in conceert thhereaffter.對(duì)于收購(gòu)方更大大的問題是，對(duì)對(duì)非金融機(jī)構(gòu)構(gòu)接管銀行長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)期存在的限限制。那些不不愿意成為持持股銀行的公公司(為此將接受受額外的監(jiān)管管)將最多只能能得到33%的股權(quán)(且投票權(quán)則不能能超過股權(quán)的的一半)。因此，將將只有可能通通過“俱樂部部式并購(gòu)”實(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)，即幾個(gè)個(gè)買家捆綁在在一起，監(jiān)管管者將監(jiān)督整整個(gè)安排以確確保他們沒有有幕后交易。Alternaativelly, innvestoors caan usee theiir perrsonall weallth too buy ent

49、irre bannks. Chriistophher Fllowerss, a sspeciaalist in baank buuy-outts, diid jusst thaat, spplashiing ouut on a smaall Miissourri lennder aand reebrandding iit Floowers Bank. But thesee soloo buyeers arre barrred ffrom ttappinng theeir fiirms fundds forr expaansionn, greeatly limitting tthe apppea

50、l of suuch mooves.另一種方法是，投投資者們可以以用其私人財(cái)財(cái)富來買下整整個(gè)銀行?？丝死锼雇懈?弗拉沃，銀銀行并購(gòu)的專專家，就是這這樣做的，買買下一個(gè)小貸貸款機(jī)構(gòu)，并并重整品牌為為弗萊沃銀行行。但是這些些個(gè)人買家被被禁止用他們們公司的資金金來進(jìn)行擴(kuò)張張，這極大地地限制了這種種方式的吸引引力。As the crisiis hass rumbbled oon, reegulattors hhave rrelucttantlyy cedeed somme groound tto thee barbbarianns at the bbanks gatees. Theyy can now

51、, for iinstannce, aappoinnt morre dirrectorrs witthout this beingg deemmed too consstitutte conntrol. Clubbs of invesstors are bbeing pre-ccleareed so they can ppick uup bannk chaarterss quicckly wwhen oopporttunitiies arrise. The Officce of the CComptrrollerr of tthe Cuurrenccy, whhich rregulaates

52、nnationnally charttered bankss, hass evenn deveelopedd a “sshelf chartter”, whichh suchh grouups caan seccure iin advvance of deeals. It hhas allreadyy handded ouut twoo. The Federral Deepositt Insuurancee Corpporatiion, wwhich handlles faailed bankss and is exxpecteed to releaase neew guiidelinnes

53、onn privvate-eequityy inveestmennt sooon, haas alsso sofftenedd its stancce. Sheiila Baair, iits chhairmaan, beelievees buyy-out firmss shouuld bee conssidereed eliigiblee biddders iif theey shoow theey cann run a bannk pruudentlly andd are “goodd corpporatee citiizens”.隨著金融危機(jī)的的車輪繼續(xù)滾滾滾向前，監(jiān)監(jiān)管者也不情情愿地將

54、通往往銀行大門前前的土地割讓讓給所謂的野野蠻人。例如如他們現(xiàn)在可可以任命更多多的董事而不不為視為是機(jī)機(jī)構(gòu)控制。投投資者團(tuán)體可可以被事先審審查，這樣當(dāng)當(dāng)機(jī)會(huì)出現(xiàn)時(shí)時(shí)，他們可以以迅速獲得銀銀行執(zhí)照。負(fù)負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)管全國(guó)國(guó)性銀行的貨貨幣監(jiān)理署官官員甚至發(fā)明明出了“執(zhí)照照貨架”，這這些團(tuán)體可以以確保是交易安全全的。他們已已經(jīng)遞出了兩兩個(gè)。負(fù)責(zé)解解決破產(chǎn)銀行行的聯(lián)邦存款款保險(xiǎn)公司，也也放低了姿態(tài)態(tài)，他們可能能會(huì)在近期出出臺(tái)對(duì)私人股股本投資的新新指導(dǎo)方針。主主席希拉.拜爾相信如果果收購(gòu)者能夠夠證明他們可可以審慎地經(jīng)經(jīng)營(yíng)銀行，并并且是好的企企業(yè)公民的話話，就可以考考慮被認(rèn)為是是合格的投標(biāo)標(biāo)人。The Offfic

55、e oof Thrrift SSupervvisionn, whiich waatchess overr lendders wwith aaroundd $1 ttrilliion off asseets, hhas goone evven fuurtherr. It rrecenttly peermittted a singlle buyy-out shop, MatllinPatttersoon, too takee overr a thhrift in Miichigaan andd has indiccated that it wiill waave thhroughh simiila

56、r ddeals.儲(chǔ)蓄機(jī)構(gòu)監(jiān)理局局(他們負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)監(jiān)管擁有100000億美美元資產(chǎn)的貸貸款機(jī)構(gòu))更是大刀闊闊斧。它最近近允許一個(gè)單單一收購(gòu)者M(jìn)MatlinnPatteerson接接管了密歇根根的一個(gè)儲(chǔ)蓄蓄機(jī)構(gòu)，并宣宣稱還會(huì)有類類似的并購(gòu)案案浪潮。This puuts itt at oodds wwith tthe moore caautiouus Fedderal Reserrve, wwhich overssees tthe hooldingg comppaniess thatt sit atop most bankss. The Fed wwill nnot peermit a firrm t

57、haat is not rregulaated aas a bbank tto ownn a coontrollling stakee in oone, eeven iif thee inveestmennt is ringffencedd. The centrral baank woorriess abouut mixxing ccommerrce annd finnance, whicch havve beeen leggally separrated for ddecadees in Ameriica.這一切都使得美美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(負(fù)責(zé)監(jiān)管大大多數(shù)銀行控控股公司)的更加審慎慎的態(tài)度顯得得奇怪。美

58、聯(lián)聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將不允許許任何一個(gè)不不是被作為銀銀行來監(jiān)管的的公司取得銀銀行控股權(quán)，即即便投資是專專項(xiàng)的。央行行擔(dān)心幾十年年以來一直被被分開監(jiān)管的的商業(yè)和金融融業(yè)混為一談?wù)?。Most innvestoors acccept that bankss, unllike tthriftts, arre outt of bboundss to llone bbuyerss. Somee compplain that not bbeing able to coontroll a baank foorces them to deemand a higgher rreturnn, whiich wiill raais

59、e tthe coost off recaapitallisingg the indusstry. But theree willl stilll be moneyy to bbe madde, saays Mrr Kanaas, beecausee evenn minoority invesstors will be abble too meett theiir hurrdle rrates of reeturn if thhe govvernmeent iss geneerous enouggh in its rrisk-ssharinng. Mr FFlowerrs, unnable s

60、o faar to make much progrress aat homme andd lickking hhis woounds from setbaacks aabroadd, bellievess richhes liie aheead. As hhe collourfuully pprediccted eearlieer thiis yeaar: “LLowliffe graave-daancerss likee me wwill mmake aa forttune.”大多數(shù)投資者也也認(rèn)為，銀行行不像是儲(chǔ)蓄蓄機(jī)構(gòu)，如果果被單獨(dú)買家家買下是有些些越軌的。一一些人抱怨，如如果不能夠控控股