AlternativeApproachestoValuation收購(gòu)與兼并最新培訓(xùn)課件(共50張PPT)

1Lecture4,AlternativeApproachestoValuationPartA:ValuationapproachesPartB:CasestudyReading:Chs9,10第一頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。2Chapter9-2PartA,valuationapproachesValuationcriticalinM&AsFrameworkessentialtodisciplinevaluationestimates第二頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。3Chapter9-31.ComparableCompaniesMethodGroupofcompaniescomparablewithrespectto:ProductsFutureprospectsKeyratiosarecalculatedforeachcompanyKeyratiosareaveragedforgroupAverageratiosappliedtoabsolutedataforcompanyofinterest第三頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。4Chapter9-4IndicatedmarketvaluesobtainedfromeachratioValuationjudgmentsaremadeAdvantagesLimitations第四頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。5Chapter9-52.ComparableTransactionsMethodMarketvaluereferstotransactionsinacompleteddealMoredirectlyapplicablethancompanycomparisonsMaybedifficulttofindtransactionswithinarelevanttimeframe第五頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。6Chapter9-63.SpreadsheetApproachtoValuationandMergersProcedureHistoricaldataforeachelementofbalancesheet,incomestatement,andcashflowstatementarepresented:7to10yearsDetailedfinancialanalysisisperformedtodiscoverfinancialpatterns第六頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。7Chapter9-7AdditionalanalysisBusinesseconomicsofindustryinwhichcompanyoperatesCompany'scompetitivepositionAssessmentsoffinancialpatterns,strategies,andactionsofcompetitorsBasedonanalysis,relevantcashflowsareprojectedProceduressimilartocapitalbudgetinganalysisCapitalbudgetingdecisionsSpreadsheetprojectionsProvidegreatflexibilityinprojections第七頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。8Chapter9-8NPVofacquisitionobtainedfromsumoffreecashflowsdiscountedatapplicablecostofcapitalAdvantagesofspreadsheetapproachExpressedinfinancialstatementsAnydesireddetailofindividualbalancesheetorincomestatementaccountsFlexibilityinformulatingprojections第八頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。9Chapter9-9DisadvantagesofspreadsheetapproachNumbersusedinprojectionsmaycreateillusionthattheyareactualorcorrectnumbersMaylacklinkbetweenprojectednumbersandbusinesslogicMaybecomehighlycomplexDetailsmayobscureimportantdrivingfactors第九頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。10Chapter9-104.FormulaApproachNorealdistinctionbetweenspreadsheetapproachandformulaapproachBothusediscountedcashflowanalysisSpreadsheetapproachexpressedinformoffinancialstatementsoverperiodoftimeFormulaapproachsummarizessamedataincompactformFormulaapproachhelpsfocusonunderlyingdriversofvaluation第十頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。11Chapter9-11DevelopmentofcompactvaluationformulasValuationnecessarilyrequiresforecastsUsuallyassumessystematicrelationsbetweentimeperiods,variablesKeyvariablesandrelationshipsTotalcapital(At)Investment(It):definedasthechangeintotalcapitaloverthepreviousperiod(At-At-1)

第十一頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。12Chapter9-12Netoperatingincome(Xt)definedasafunctionoflastperiod'stotalcapital,i.e.,

Xt=aAt-1whereaisaconstantAfter-taxnetoperatingincome=Xt(1-T)Profitabilityrate(Rt):definedintermsofchangeinnetoperatingincomeasaresultoftheinvestmentinthepreviousperiodAfter-taxprofitabilityrate=Rt(1-T)=rt:definedintermsofchangeinafter-taxnetoperatingincomeasaresultofinvestmentinthepreviousperiod

第十二頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。13Chapter9-13Investmentrequirements,opportunitiesperdollarofafter-taxcashflows(b):definedasratioofinvestmenttoafter-taxnetoperatingincomeGrowthrate(g):definedasrateofchangeinafter-taxcashflowsorinnetoperatingincomeInthismodel,gisdeterminedbytheproductofothervariables:theinvestmentratetimestheprofitabilityrate第十三頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。14Chapter9-14InsightsfromuseofformulaapproachWhenrisgreaterthank,increasinginvestment(b)resultsinhighergandhighervaluesValuationisverysensitivetothecostofcapital(k)usedinanalysisSensitivitytonandTpredictableindirectionandmagnitude第十四頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。15Chapter9-15LimitationsoftheformulaapproachLessflexibilityinreflectingforecastsforindividualyearsCalculationsusefinancialstatementdatanotdirectlyshownintheformulas第十五頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。16Chapter9-165.CostofCapitalMeasurementStepsinvolvedincalculationofcostofcapitalCalculatecostofequitycapitalCalculatecostofdebtFormulateapplicablefinancialstructureorfinancialproportionsApplyapplicablefinancialproportionstocostofequityandcostofdebtFinalresultisweightedcostofcapital第十六頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。17Chapter9-17CostofequityCapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM)BondyieldplusequityriskpremiumCostofequity=Averageyieldtomaturityoffirm'sbond+historicalaverageindustryequityriskpremiumoverdebtyieldFortheindustry,analyzehistoricalreturnstoequityascomparedwithaverageyieldtomaturityonbondsInvestor'saveragerealizedyieldHistoricalreturnoninvestmentintheindustryReturns=Changeinstockprice+dividendyield

第十七頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。18Chapter9-18DividendgrowthmodelRequiredreturnonequityisexpecteddividendyield(D1

/S0)plusexpectedgrowthrateindividends(g)EstimatingthecostofequitycapitalUseinformationgeneratedbyfinancialmarketsEstimatecostofequityusingmultiplemethodsConsiderestimatesforothercompaniesinsameindustryUsejudgmenttoarriveatanestimate第十八頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。19Chapter9-19CostofdebtCostofdebtcalculatedonanafter-taxbasisbecauseinterestpaymentsaretaxdeductibleAfter-taxcostofdebt=kb(1-T)Before-taxcostofdebt,kbCanbeobtainedfrompromisedyieldstomaturityoffirm'soutstandingpubliclyheldbondsCanbeobtainedfrompublishedpromisedyieldstomaturitybasedonbondratingcategory第十九頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。20Chapter9-20CostofpreferredstockClaimsofpreferredstockholderstakeprecedenceovercommoninliquidationPreferredstockandtaxesPreferredstockdividendsarenotdeductiblefortaxpurposesforissuerAhighpercentageofdividendsreceivedbyonecorporationfromanotherisnontaxableYieldsonpreferredstockslightlybelowyieldsonbondsofsimilarcompaniesMostpreferredstocksarevaluedasperpetuities第二十頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。21Chapter9-21MarginalCostofCapital(MCC)Costofcapital,k,isweightedaverageofmarginalcostofequity,debt,andpreferredstockMethodologyfocusesoncurrentmarketopportunitycosts,notbookorhistoricalcostsMayusebookormarketvaluestoprovideguidelinesUsejudgmenttoestimatetargetfinancialproportions第二十一頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。22Chapter9-226.InfluenceofInflationCurrentpriceofstockorcurrentvalueofcompanyalreadyincorporatesexpectedrateofinflationValuationformulaUsinganequationwithrealgrowthandrealcostofcapitalgivesthesameresultasusinganequationwithnominalexpressions

第二十二頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。23Chapter9-23Whenreplacementinvestment(innominaldollars)isgreaterthandepreciationexpense,theequationsareadjustedPracticalproblemsDifficulttopredictfutureratesofinflationRelativepriceandcoststructurechangeunderinflationInflationaffectsdifferentstakeholdersunequallyDistortingeffectsofinflationposeproblemsforallvaluationmethodologies

第二十三頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。24Chapter9-247.SummaryAllvaluationmethodshavestrengthsandweaknessesEmploymultiplemethodsofvaluationintakeoveranalysisValuationshouldbeguidedbyabusinesseconomicsoutlookforthefirmsUltimatelyjudgmentsarerequiredforvaluations第二十四頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。25Chapter10-2PartB.CaseStudyMultipleApproachestoValuationAreIllustratedbyanIn-DepthCaseStudyofChevronTakeoverofGulf(1984)第二十五頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。26Chapter10-3EventAnalysisofChevronPurchaseofGulfChevronwonauctioninMarch1984TransactiontermsCashbidof$80persharePretakeoveractivitypriceofGulfwas$39Gulfhad165.3millionsharessototalpricewas$13.2billionPremiumwas$41or105%Transactionwastaxableandtreatedasapurchase第二十六頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。27Chapter10-4EventreturnsChevronhadapositiveeventreturnof$2billionandGulf$6.8billionTotalpositiveeventreturnwas$8.8billion第二十七頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。28Chapter10-5ComparableTransactionAnalysisInfiveprioroilcompanypurchasestheweightedaverageratioswerecalculatedTransactionvaluetobookequity2.35TransactionvaluetoEBITDA3.05TransactionvaluetoRevenues0.75TransactionvaluetoMarketEquity1.34第二十八頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。29Chapter10-6ApplicationofthemultiplesgaveanaveragevalueofGulfof$16.1billionThisbenchmarkindicatesthatthe$13.2billionpricewasfairFurtheranalysisisrequired第二十九頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。30Chapter10-7TheSpreadsheetandFormulaMethodologiesAppliedtoChevron,1983Witheightitemsoffinancialinformation,wedevelopafirstestimate第三十頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。31Chapter10-8ForChevronin1983withoutGulfthevaluedriverswere:Actualtaxrate(T)=42.7%After-taxprofitabilityrate(r)=13.8%Investmentopportunitiesrate(b)=48.0%GrowthrateinEBIT(g)=6.6%Yearsofprospectivesupernormalgrowth(n)=10Marginalcostofcapital(k)=12.0%InitialEBIT(1983)(X0)=$3,106million第三十一頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。32Chapter10-9Theindicated1983valueofChevronwas$16.8billionDeducttotalinterest-bearingdebtof$2billionTheformulamarketvalueofequitywas$14.8billionTheactualmarketvaluewas$12billion第三十二頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。33Chapter10-10SpreadsheetmethodDevelopaspreadsheetforthefuture10yearsDCFthefreecashflowsatacostofcapitalof12%Weobtainedavalueof$7,082millionWeobtainedavalueof$7,123millionusingtheformulamethodThespreadsheetmethodandformulamethodgivethesameresults第三十三頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。34Chapter10-11TheValueofGulf,1983UsetheformulamethodforGulfattheendof1983ThevaluedriversforGulfwere:Actualtaxrate(T)=50%After-taxprofitabilityrate(r)=0.7%Investmentopportunitiesrate(b)=53.2%GrowthrateinEBIT(g)=0.4%Yearsofprospectivesupernormalgrowth=10Marginalcostofcapital(k)=13.0%InitialEBIT(1983)(X0)=$2,990million第三十四頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。35Chapter10-12TheformulavalueforGulfwas$7,395millionItsactualmarketvaluewas$9billionValuingGulfasanogrowthcompanygives$11.5billionValuationbytheformulamethodischeckedbyanalysisoffindingcostsThereturnsfromGulfexplorationanddevelopment(E&D)programswerenegativeBystoppingE&Dprograms,Gulfcouldhaveavoidedlosseswithacapitalizedvalueof$50.36/share第三十五頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。36Chapter10-13Addthepersharevalueofcommonstockof$39togiveatotalof$89ChevronpurchasedGulfreservesatasavingof$5perbarrelbelowitsownfindingcosts;the$5timesthe2,313millionreservesofGulfequals$11.6billionGulfreservesof2,313milliontimesGulf'soperatingprofitof$7.67gives$17.7billionThefourapproachesindicatethatChevron'spurchaseofGulfat$13.2billionwasapositiveNPVinvestment第三十六頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。37Chapter10-14Chevron'sValuein1994Attheendof1994,Chevron'svaluedriverswere:Actualtaxrate(T)=40%After-taxprofitabilityrate(r)=30.0%Investmentopportunitiesrate(b)=40.0%GrowthrateinEBIT(g)=12.0%Yearsofprospectivesupernormalgrowth=10Marginalcostofcapital(k)=10.0%InitialEBIT(1983)(X0)=$3,222million第三十七頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。38Chapter10-15Thesegiveavalueof$38.8billionforChevron.TheactualvalueofChevronattheendof1994was$37.2billion.BenefitstoChevronoftheGulfpurchasein1984Chevroncutitsinvestmentrate(b)from48%to4%forthe1986-1994periodItsprofitabilityrateincreasedfrom13.8%to24%第三十八頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。39Chapter10-16ThevaluedriversusedintheformulamethodShouldnotbetiedtohistoricalpatternsShoulduseforecastsofthefuture第三十九頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。40Chapter10-17MultipleApproachestoValuationCanbeusedascross-checksComparablecompaniesComparabletransactionsSpreadsheetDCFmethodFormulaDCFmethodInvestmentprofitabilityanalysisValuationofreservesinthegroundValuationofcustomerbaseValuationofpotentialsforcostsavings第四十頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。41Chapter10-18EachmethodshouldbetestedforitsinnerlogicEachmethodcancontributetosomeinsightsonvaluation第四十一頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。42ExtraDiscussions

on

Valuation第四十二頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。431.DifferencesbetweentheNPVandIRRNPV:pvofcashflowsafterrepayingtheinvestedcapitalandrateofreturn.AcceptNPV>0IRR:rateofreturnequatingthepvsofexpectedcashflowsandcostsofaproject,ie,NPV=0.AcceptIRR>costofcapitalComparison:Forindependentprojects,NPVandIRRgivethesamedecisionFormutuallyexclusiveprojects,sometimesdifferentdecision.Forprojectswithcashoutflows,multipleIRRsbutonlyoneNPV.第四十三頁(yè)，共五十頁(yè)。442.SomebasiccapitalbudgetingrelationshipsEstimatedvalue=P/E*EPSExpectedEPS=salespershare*netprofitmarginP/E=dividendpayoutratio/(k-g)K=rf+beta*(rm–rf)g=retentionrate*ROEROE=(netincome/sales)*(sales/totalassets)*(totalassets/equity)V0=CF0(1+g)/(r-g)EVA=EBIT*(1