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Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKTHEECONOMIC,ENVIRONMENTAL,ANDSOCIALOPPORTUNITIESTHATRAILBRINGSTOTHEUKPUBLISHED2022Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKABOUTOXFORDECONOMICSOxfordEconomicswasfoundedin1981asacommercialventurewithOxfordUniversity’sbusinesscollegetoprovideeconomicforecastingandmodellingtoUKcompaniesandfinancialinstitutionsexpandingabroad.Sincethen,wehavebecomeoneoftheworld’sforemostindependentglobaladvisoryfirms,providingreports,forecastsandanalyticaltoolsonmorethan200countries,100industries,and7,000citiesandregions.Ourbest-in-classglobaleconomicandindustrymodelsandanalyticaltoolsgiveusanunparalleledabilitytoforecastexternalmarkettrendsandassesstheireconomic,socialandbusinessimpact.HeadquarteredinOxford,England,withregionalcentresinNewYork,London,Frankfurt,andSingapore,OxfordEconomicshasofficesacrosstheglobeinBelfast,Boston,CapeTown,Chicago,Dubai,Dublin,HongKong,LosAngeles,Melbourne,MexicoCity,Milan,Paris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,andToronto.Weemploy450staff,includingmorethan300professionaleconomists,industryexperts,andbusinesseditors—oneofthelargestteamsofmacroeconomistsandthoughtleadershipspecialists.Ourglobalteamishighlyskilledinafullrangeofresearchtechniquesandthoughtleadershipcapabilitiesfromeconometricmodelling,scenarioframing,andeconomicimpactanalysistomarketsurveys,casestudies,expertpanels,andwebanalytics.OxfordEconomicsisakeyadvisertocorporate,financialandgovernmentdecision-makersandthoughtleaders.Ourworldwideclientbasenowcomprisesover2,000internationalorganisations,includingleadingmultinationalcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions;keygovernmentbodiesandtradeassociations;andtopuniversities,consultancies,andthinktanks.September2022AlldatashownintablesandchartsareOxfordEconomics’owndata,exceptwhereotherwisestatedandcitedinfootnotes,andarecopyright?OxfordEconomicsLtd.Themodellingandresultspresentedherearebasedoninformationprovidedbythirdparties,uponwhichOxfordEconomicshasreliedinproducingitsreportandforecastsingoodfaith.Anysubsequentrevisionorupdateofthosedatawillaffecttheassessmentsandprojectionsshown.Todiscussthereportfurtherpleasecontact:JamesBedford:jbedford@RosieNolan:rnolan@StephenForeman:sforeman@OxfordEconomics4Millbank,LondonSW1P3JA,UKTel:+442039108061Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKABOUTTHERAILWAYINDUSTRYASSOCIATIONTheRailwayIndustryAssociation(RIA)isthenationaltradebodyforsome300UKrailsuppliers,withmembersrepresentingalargeproportionoftherailindustrybyturnoverandreflectingagreatdiversityofdisciplineswithintherailsector.MembershipcomprisesbothlargemultinationalcompaniesandSMEs(around60%ofthemembership),basedrightacrosstheUK.ThisreporthasbeenkindlysupportedbyRIA’sIndustryPartners2Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKTABLEOFCONTENTSForeword4Executivesummary61.Introduction102.Economicbenefits132.1ReducedCongestion132.2Agglomerationbenefits172.3Transportaccessibilityandemployment233.Environmentalbenefits293.1Greenhousegases293.2Airquality363.3Spacerequirements374.Socialbenefits414.1Socialmobility414.2Wellbeingandhealth473Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKFOREWORDDARRENCAPLAN,CHIEFEXECUTIVE,RAILWAYINDUSTRYASSOCIATIONRailhasthepotentialtotransformeconomiesandsocieties,deliveringrealbenefitsforpeople,businesses,andtheenvironment.IntheUK,previousresearchcarriedoutbyOxfordEconomicsontheeconomiccontributionofrailshowedthatin2019therailwayindustrysupported￡43billionGVAineconomicgrowth,710,000jobs,and￡14billionintaxrevenue.Forevery￡1spentonrail￡2.50ofincomeisgeneratedinthewidereconomy.However,thesefiguresalonedonottellthefullstory.Therailwayalsodeliversawiderangeofadditionaleconomic,environmental,andsocialbenefitsacrosstheUK,facilitatedbyastrongandvibrantrailsupplysector.Thisnewstudy,commissionedbytheRailwayIndustryAssociation(RIA)andcarriedoutindependentlybyOxfordEconomics,examinesthesebenefitsandpresentsanumberofnewinsightsintotheimpactofUKrail.Railconnectspeopleandplaces–deliveringeconomicbenefitsforrailcustomerswhethertheybejobseekers,commuters,visitingfriendsorfamily,leisuretravellers,orfreightcompanies.Thisstudyfindsthattimesavingsoncommutesderivedfrompublictransportaresignificant.Forexample,annuallytheycouldbewortharound￡226millioninBirmingham,￡229millioninLeeds,and￡295millioninManchester.ResultsfromthereportalsoshowthatwagesinManchesterandLeedscouldrisebyupto￡860perpersonifjourneytimesbetweenthetwocitiesarecutby20minutes.InScotlandalone,upto8,200additionaljobscouldbesupportedbyreducedjourneytimes.Railalsosupportssocialmobilityandintegration,contributingtolevellingup.Thesesocialbenefitsaresubstantialandvaried.Aswellassupportingleisureopportunities,raillinksimprovepublichealthbyprovidingaccesstohealthcarefacilitiesandbyencouragingwalkingandcyclingtoandfromlocalstations.ThestudyalsoprovidesfurtherevidencethatinvestingintheUKrailnetworkisaneffectivewaytoprogresseffortstomeetenvironmentaltargets.Forinstance,electrifyingatraditionally-fuelledrailroutewouldresultina66%reductioninCO2emissions,inatransportmodewhichaccountedforonly1.4%oftheUKtransportsector’sCO2emissions,but9.5%ofallpassengerkilometres.Thisillustratesrail’sessentialplaceintheefforttoachieveNetZero.Wearealsoproudtohaveworkedtogetherwithindustrypartnersonthisreport,whohaveallcontributedwithcasestudiesthatbringthesebenefitstolife–showingreallifeexamplesofrailsuppliersmakingapositivecontributiontocommuters,communities,andtheenvironment.ThankyoutoCostain,Knorr-Bremse,Skanska,Trainline,VolkerRail,andWorldline.WhiletheCoronaviruspandemichashadasignificantimpactonthepassengerrailwayindustry,nationalrailridershipisnowrecovering,regularlyreachingover90%ofpre-Covidlevels.However,railsuppliersstandreadytoworkwithwiderindustrypartnerstocontinuetoovercomecurrentfinancialchallengesandeconomicpressuresbyfocusingongrowingrevenue,cuttingcosts,andmaximisingbenefitsforall.Indeed,thegrowthprospectsofrailarestrong,andarealsosupportedbythe4Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKGovernment’s￡96bnIntegratedRailPlan,which–whenimplemented–willresultinfurthereconomic,environmentalandsocialbenefitsformillionsofpeople.Furthermore,thedevelopmentofGreatBritishRailwayspresentsaonceinagenerationopportunitytomaximisebenefitsacrosstheentirenetwork.TheWholeIndustryStrategicPlan,the30-yearstrategyforUKrail,mustthereforebeambitiousandsetthepaceforyearstocome.Wehopethattheresultspresentedinthisstudyarenotonlyuseful,butalsoinspiring.ThereporthighlightsnotonlywhatUKrailalreadydelivers,butalsotheadditionalbenefitsithasthepotentialtodeliver.Weneedtotakethepost-pandemicopportunitytoinvestinwhatisakeysector,bringingbenefitstothecountry’seconomy,itspeople,andtheenvironment.Yourssincerely,DarrenCaplanChiefExecutive,RailwayIndustryAssociation5Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKEXECUTIVESUMMARYAspassengersreturntotheUKrailnetworkfollowingtheperiodofunprecedenteddisruptionbroughtaboutbytheCovid-19pandemic,thereisanopportunityfortheindustrytohighlighttherolethattheUK’srailnetworkplaysinfacilitatingeconomicgrowth.RailalsodeliverssignificantenvironmentalbenefitstotheUK.TherailnetworkhasstartedtodecarbonisetoreachtheGovernment’stargetofNetZeroby2050,butmeetingtheUK’sNetZeroambitionwillrequirefasterinvestmentintotherailnetwork.Furthertothis,railpromotessocialmobilityandcontributestotheGovernment’slevelling-upstrategy.Thisreporthighlightssomeofthewidereconomic,environmental,andsocialbenefitsofrail,buildingonour2021reportontheeconomicfootprintoftheUKrailsector.Ourkeyfindingsare:IncreaseduseofrailgeneratesbenefitsfortheUKeconomybyimprovingproductivityandlabourmarketoutcomes.TIMESAVINGS:publictransportgeneratesaround￡1.4billionintimesavingbenefitseveryyearforcommutersinsixoftheUK’slargestcitiesfromreducedcongestion.1HIGHERWAGES:reducingjourneytimesbetweenManchesterandLeedsby20minutescouldincreasewagesbyapproximately￡600perworkerperyear.JOBOPPORTUNITIES:a10%reductioninregionaljourneytimescouldsupportfrom1,950-12,600jobsdependentonthearea.5,900jobscouldbesupportedinScotland,forexample.Railhasalowerenvironmentalimpactthanothermodesoftransport,andnewtechnologywillonlyreducethis.LOW-CARBONTRAVEL:by2050electrictrainswillproduce14timesfeweremissionsthanconventionallyfuelledtrains.2Accesstotherailsystemsupportssocialmobilityandimprovespublichealth.PUBLICHEALTH:￡115millionperyearinhealthcarecostsavingscouldbegeneratedbyimprovingpublictransportinsixoftheUK’slargestcities.ACCESSTOSERVICES:inadditiontotheeconomicbenefitsfromaccessibility,thosewithbetterpublictransportlinksaremorelikelytohaveaccesstoservicesandparticipatesocially.ThesixcitiesconsideredinouranalysisaretheLocalEnterprisePartnerships(LEPs)London,GreaterManchester,LeedsCityRegion,GreaterBirminghamandSolihull,LiverpoolCityRegion,andSheffieldCityRegion.Benefitsfigureisbasedonthemid-pointof￡0.97-￡1.9billionEstimatesareheavilyinfluencedbytheUK’selectricitygenerationmix.6Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKTheUK’srailnetworkplaysacentralroleinsupportingitseconomy.OxfordEconomics’2021reporthighlightedtheeconomicactivitysupportedbytheUKrailsector.In2019,therailsectorcontributed￡43billiontotheUKeconomyintermsofgrossvalueadded.Thisactivitywasassociatedwith710,000(employeeandself-employed)jobsacrossthecountry—comparedtoanestimated600,000in2016—and￡14billionintaxrevenues.Therailsector’stotalcontributiontotheUKeconomy(￡43billion)was3.5timesthe￡12billiongrossvalueaddedcontributiontotheUKeconomygeneratedbytherailwaysystemitself.Thismeansthat,forevery￡1worthofworkonthenetworkitself,afurther￡2.50ofincomeisgeneratedinassociatedindustries,theirsuppliers,andfirmssupportedbyrailwayworkers’wage-fundedspending.ThesekeyfiguresarehigherthanOxfordEconomics’previousstudy,consideringtheeconomicfootprintoftherailsectorin2016,whenthetotalcontributiontotheUKeconomywasputat￡36billion,andthetotaljobsfootprintat600,000,withevery￡1ofworkonthenetworkitselfsupporting￡2.20ofincomeelsewhere.ButtheUK’srailnetworkplaysawiderroleinsupportingitseconomybyefficientlyconnectingpeopleandplacesbringingarangeofadditionalbenefits.Railaccesstocentresofeconomicactivityhelpstoeasecongestionelsewhereonthetransportnetwork.Movingpeopleefficientlyacrossthecountry,toandfromcitiesandmajortransporthubs,contributestoeconomicgrowthandlabourmarketoutcomesaspeoplehavemoretimetospendworkingorpursuingleisureactivities.Forexample,thetimesavingsforcommutersderivedfrompublictransportinsixoftheUK’slargestcitiesarewortharound￡1.4billioneachyear.

￡1.4billionThemidpointforvalueoftimesavingsforcommutersinsixUKcitiesarisingfrompublictransportperyear.Thebenefitsofnewraillinesarenotjustlimitedtoitsusers.Freeingupcapacityonexistingnetworkshasbrought“secondary”benefitstopassengersthatdonotusethenewlines.Infact,thesecondarybenefitssupportedbyHighSpeed1(HS1),asusersoftheexistingSoutheasternnetworkenjoyedjourneytimeandfrequencyimprovements,wereestimatedtobealmostaslargeasthedirectbenefitsoftheproject.Thereisalsomorecapacityforrailfreight,whichsupportsimportanteconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsacrosstheUK.Eachfreighttrainisestimatedtotakeanaverageof76lorriesofftheroadnetwork,resultinginanestimated7millionfewerlorryjourneysperyearalready.7Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKTherailnetworkcontributestothedistributionofeconomicactivitythroughouttheUKbyconnectingworkersandbusinesses.Improvedtransportconnectionsreducetheeffectivedistancebetweenfirmsandbetweenworkersandfirms,whichsupportsUKproductivitybygeneratingbenefitsforbusinessesthroughimprovedopportunitiesforsharing,matching,andlearning.HS1,forinstance,generatedanestimated￡1billioninagglomerationbenefits,themajorityofwhichwereinKent.Whenconsideringthepotentialagglomerationbenefitsoffuturerailimprovements,evidencesuggeststhatreducingjourneytimesbetweenManchesterandLeedsby20minutescouldbeworthbetween￡340and￡860inincreasedwagesforworkersinthesecitieseachyear,or￡600atthemidpointofthisrange.Accesstotherailnetworkisassociatedwithimprovedlabourmarketoutcomesaspassengerswithgoodconnectionsaremorelikelytofindandremaininemployment.Reducedregionaljourneytimescouldsupportanadditional1,950-12,600jobsdependentonthearea,basedonthemidpointoftherangesincludedinFig.1.

￡600ThemidpointwageincreaseforworkersinManchesterandLeedsifjourneytimesarereducedby20minutes.1,950-12,600Thenumberofjobsthatcouldbesupportedbya10%reductioninregionaljourneytimesbasedonthemidpointofarangeforeachUKregion.Fig.1.Examplesoftheestimatedimpactofa10%reductionintraveltimesinUKregionsandcities3JobsJobsJobsJobsUKregionsLowerboundUpperboundUKcitiesLowerboundUpperbound(0.13%increase(0.3%increase(0.13%increase(0.3%increaseinemployment)inemployment)inemployment)inemployment)GreaterLondon7,60017,600Glasgow1,2002,780SouthEast6,30014,500Bristol7701,770NorthWest4,90011,400Sheffield7001,620EastofEngland4,2009,700Edinburgh6901,590WestMidlands3,9009,000Leicester5901,370SouthWest3,9008,900Cardiff5001,150Scotland3,6008,200Coventry430990Yorkshire&TheHumber3,5008,000Aberdeen390890EastMidlands3,0007,000Hull370840Wales1,9004,400Bournemouth360840NorthEast1,5003,500Derby330770NorthernIreland1,2002,700Portsmouth320750Itmustbenotedthesedifferentregionsandcitiesshouldbeconsideredinisolationasdecreasingjourneytimesby10%acrossthecountrywouldbeasubstantialundertaking,whileinfrastructureprojectsreducingjourneytimesinindividualcitiesorregionsaremorerealistic.8Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKTheUKrailnetworkwillplayasignificantroleintheUK’senvironmentalgoals.Railprovidesthecleanestmodeoftransportformostjourneys,producingfewergreenhousegasemissionsand1.4%pollutantsthanothermodesoftransportperpassenger.TheUK’srailsectoraccountedfor1.4%oftheUKtransportTheUKrailsector’sshareofsector’sCO2eemissionsin2019,but9.5%ofallpassengerUKtransportCO2eemissions,kilometres,sowillplayanimportantroleintheUK’sNetwhileitaccountsfor9.5%ofallpassengerkilometres.Zeroambitions.Carbonemissionsfromconventionallyfuelledtrains—usingdiesellocomotion—havebeenfoundtobe2.6timeslowerthanconventionallyfuelledcarsperpassenger.Butelectrifyingrailroutesreducesemissionsbytwo-thirds,highlightingthecontinuedimportanceofinvestmentintotheUKrailnetwork.Andthisdifferenceisexpectedtoriseinthefuture,withelectrictrainsexpectedtoproduce14timesfeweremissionsandhydrogentrainsfivetimesfeweremissionsthanconventionallyfuelledtrainsby2050.Usingacombinationofelectric,hydrogen-powered,andbatteryhybridtrains—allwhileencouragingtravellerstotravelbyrailoverpersonalvehicles—willcontributetoemissionsavingsintheUKandmeetingtheNetZerogoals.ThesocialmobilityandinclusionsupportedbytheUKrailnetworkcontributestoLevellingUp.TheGovernment’sLevellingUpstrategyaimstoaddresssocialmobility,connectivity,andplacemaking.Byconnectingpeopleandplaces,theUKrailnetworksupportssocialandleisureopportunities.Alackofmobilityislinkedwithsocialdisadvantageandexclusion,witharound1.5millionpeopleestimatedtobein“transportpoverty”.Thosewithgoodtransportconnectionshavebeenfoundtobemorelikelytoaccesshealthcareandsocialservicesandparticipatesocially.Publictransporthasalsobeenfoundtosupportimprovedpublicwellbeingandhealthoutcomes,withpassengerswalkingtoandfromstations,andprovidingbetteraccesstohealthcarefacilities.Improvingtransportconnectionswasfoundtoresultin,onaverage,anadditionalsixminutesofexerciseperweekforresidentsbyanAustralianstudyasmorepeoplewalkorcycletoandfromlocalstations.Thisadditionalexercisegenerateshealthcarecostsavingsof￡8perresident.Thiswouldresultinasavingof￡115millioninhealthcarecostsifappliedtotheadultpopulationofsixoftheUK’slargestcities.

￡115millionThehealthcarecostsavingsofsixadditionalminutesofexerciseperresident,perweekfromimprovedpublictransportacrosssixUKcities.9Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKINTRODUCTIONThisreportinvestigatestheeconomic,environmental,andsocialbenefitsoftheUK’srailsectorthroughacomprehensivereviewofrelevantliterature,casestudies,internationalcomparisons,anddescriptivestatistics.Thereportseekstocapturethewide-rangingbenefitsoftheUK’srailsectorbycoveringanumberoftopicsacrosstheeconomic,environmental,andsocialspheres(Fig.2).Fig.2.ThewiderbenefitsoftheUK’srailsectorcoveredinthisreportEconomicbenefitsAgglomerationReducedcongestionTransportaccessibilitybenefitsandemploymentEnvironmentalbenefitsGreenhousegasesAirqualitySpacerequirementsSocialbenefitsSocialmobilityWellbeingandhealthTHEUKRAILSECTORTheUKrailsectorismuchlargerthanjustatransportsystem.WhiletheUK’srailtransportsystemcomprisesNetworkRail,mainlinepassengerandfreightoperationsinGreatBritain,NorthernIrelandRailways,andurban‘metro’networks,itsrailsectoralsocontainsanextensivesupplychain.Thisincludesallthecompaniessupportingthenetwork:suppliersofgoods,services,andconstructionworktotheUKrailtransportsystem,exportsofrail-relatedgoodsandservices,andtheentireUK-basedsupplychainhelpingtosupportthatoutput.Thesecompaniesexported￡600millionofrail-relatedgoodsandservicesin2019,contributingtotheGovernment’s‘GlobalBritain’vision.4PassengerdemandhascontinuedtoriseacrosstheUK.ThelatestnumbersfromtheOfficeofRailandRoad(ORR)revealnearly1billionrailpassengerjourneysweremadeacrossGreatBritaininthepastyear(1April2021to31March2022).Useoftherailnetworkisnearingpre-pandemiclevels(Fig.3).5DatafromtheDepartmentforTransport(DfT)showthatinthesecond-weekofAugust2022(themostrecentavailabledata),thenumberofrailjourneysacrossthecountry(NationalRail)was,onaverage,equalto92%ofthenumberofjourneysduringanequivalentperiodbeforetheCovid-19pandemic.6OxfordEconomics,“TheEconomicContributionofUKRail”,RIA,2021ORR,“Passengerrailusage”,2022DfT,“Transportuseduringthecoronavirus(COVID-19)pandemic”,202210Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKFig.3.NationalRailusageintheUKcomparedtoequivalentperiodsbeforethepandemicInthecontextoftheGovernment’senvironmentaltargetsandplanstodecarbonisetransport,theneedforpoliciestoincentiviserailtravelandsupportitsgrowthhavebeenidentifiedintheGovernment’sWilliams-ShappsPlanforRailandtheTransportDecarbonisationPlan.7,8THEECONOMICCONTRIBUTIONOFUKRAIL(OXFORDECONOMICS’2021REPORT)ThisreportbuildsuponOxfordEconomics’2021publicationTheEconomicContributionofUKRail,whichexaminedtheeconomiccontributionofrailway-relatedactivitytotheUKeconomy.9ThelatestinaseriesofanalysesfromOxfordEconomicsmeasuringtheeconomiccontributionoftheUK’srailsector,itsfocuswasontheeconomicactivitysupported,directlyandindirectly,bythedemandforrail-relatedgoodsandservicesintheUK.Itdidnotconsiderthewidereconomic,environmental,andsocialbenefitstheUKrailsectorprovidestotheUKeconomicsociety,whicharenowinvestigatedinthisreport.Thereportestimatedthat,in2019,theUKrailsectorcontributed￡43billiontotheUKeconomyintermsofgrossvalueadded.Thisactivitywasassociatedwith710,000(employeeandself-employed)jobsacrossthecountry—comparedtoestimated600,000in2016—and￡14billionintaxrevenues.Therailsector’stotalcontributiontotheUKeconomy(￡43billion),includingitsindirectandinducedimpact,was3.5timesthe￡12billiongrossvalueaddedcontributiontotheUKeconomygeneratedbytherailwaysystemitself.Thismeansthat,forevery￡1worthofworkonthenetworkitself,afurtherDepartmentforTransport,“GreatBritishRailways:TheWilliams-ShappsPlanForRail”,2021DepartmentforTransport,“DecarbonisingTransport:ABetter,GreenerBritain”,2021Thescopeoftherailsectorinthisanalysisincludestrainoperatorsandrailinfrastructureproviders(“railwaysystem”),suppliersofassets,goods,andservicestorailwaysystemsathomeandoverseas(“railsupplysector”),andon-stationretailerscateringforrailwaypassengers.11Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUK￡2.50ofincomeisgeneratedinassociatedindustries,theirsuppliers,andfirmssupportedbyrailwayworkers’wage-fundedspending.ThesefiguresareinadditiontothewiderbenefitsoftheUKrailsectortotheUKeconomyandsocietyascoveredinthisreport—andfurtherhighlighttheimportanceoftherailsectorfortheUKeconomy.Fig.4.TotalGVA,jobs,andtaxfootprintbysectorandchannelofimpact￡billionThousandsofjobs50￡42.9bn710,000jobs800457004012.0247.2600350.9500302517.822.440020￡14.1bn317.0300154.0200100.5512.26.2100123.43.400GVATaxJobsRailtransportsystemRailsupplysectorStationretail&supplyInducedimpactsSource:OxfordEconomics12Theeconomic,environmental,andsocialopportunitiesthatrailbringstotheUKECONOMICBENEFITS2.1REDUCEDCONGESTIONIncreaseduseofraileasescongestionelsewhereonthetransportnetwork.Railaccesstomajortransporthubsandcentresofeconomicactivityhelpstominimiselocalisedcongestionelsewhereonthetransportnetwork.Wherecongestioniseasedbyrailnetworks,therearepositiveimpactsoncommuters,firms,andwidersocietyasthecostsfromtrafficcongestionarereduced.Thisisbecausepeoplevaluetheirtimeatworkandinpursuitofleisure.Bycuttingjourneytimes,itenablespeopletohavemoretimetoeitherworkorenjoytheirfavouritesocialpursuits.WithcartravelbeingtheUK’smostresilienttransportmodethroughoutthepandemic—remainingaroundpre-pandemiclevelsasofJune2022whilerail,tube,andbusremainbelow—theissueofroadcongestionisaspertinentasever.10Abreadthofrecentacademicresearchhasinvestigatedtheimpactofrailsystemsontherestofthetransportnetworkandthetravellersthatuseit:Fageda(2021)findsnewrailsystemshaveasignificantimpactoncongestioninmid-sizedEuropeancities,reducingtraveltimes.Citieswithanewrailsystem—suchasNottingham’stramextension(2015)orEdinburgh’snewtramnetwork(2014)—experiencedonaveragea7.7%reductioninroadcongestionanda1.4%decreaseintraveltimes.11NewhighspeedrailroutesinChinawerefoundtosignificantlyreducecongestiononparallelhighways.LinandJia(2021)observeda20%reductioninthenumberofpassengervehiclesanda15%reductioninfreightvehicles.12Laliveetal(2013)findanincreaseinservicefrequencyonrailroutesinGermanyfollowingrailreformthatresultedinsubstitutionfromroadtorail.13Regionalpassengerserviceswereexpanded