AsianCrisis亞洲金融危機(jī)英文版

AsianFinancialCrisis目錄一.Asianfinancialcrisis1997–981.數(shù)據(jù)2.概況3.原因4.影響二.投機(jī)者-索羅斯三.IMF的角色四.經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)1997亞洲金融風(fēng)暴概況之危機(jī)原因新馬泰日韓等國(guó)都為外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)的國(guó)家。他們對(duì)世界市場(chǎng)的依附很大。亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的動(dòng)搖難免會(huì)出現(xiàn)牽一發(fā)而動(dòng)全身的狀況。金融大鱷一只假寐的老狼個(gè)人價(jià)值觀趨向資本主義國(guó)家的默許新中國(guó)成立預(yù)示著社會(huì)主義陣營(yíng)的建立。美國(guó)，，有了危機(jī)感。他通過強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)后盾在亞太地區(qū)建立起一個(gè)資本主義的統(tǒng)一戰(zhàn)線：韓國(guó)，日本，臺(tái)灣直至東南亞，都成為美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)附庸。這給亞洲一些國(guó)家飛速發(fā)展帶來(lái)了經(jīng)濟(jì)支持。直接觸發(fā)因素內(nèi)在基礎(chǔ)性因素世界經(jīng)因素亞洲國(guó)家美國(guó)因素喬治索羅斯國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者分析equilibrium由于國(guó)際方面的信貸繁榮和當(dāng)局放寬對(duì)外國(guó)資本流入，導(dǎo)致外資流入增加。通常情況下，資金會(huì)找到自己的方式，無(wú)論是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的貸款給企業(yè)或的非生產(chǎn)性股票和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。不幸的是，在這段時(shí)間的資金流入股市和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)朝向。下表顯示了在1997年給予的貸款，物業(yè)部門和不良貸款的百分比?？梢钥闯?，從上述四國(guó)受影響最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)也配合他們的尊重銀行業(yè)的不良貸款率最高。金融危機(jī)對(duì)這些國(guó)家各自的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)的效果。財(cái)政失衡是指付款余額為負(fù)值，一國(guó)償還其債務(wù)的能力之間的差異。資料來(lái)源：國(guó)際貨幣基金組織上表顯示出口和經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目的惡化。該表顯示，而經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目赤字居高不下，出口國(guó)的同時(shí)經(jīng)歷了在其出口收入下滑。在韓國(guó)和泰國(guó)，其出口增長(zhǎng)最少，分別只有3.7和0.5％。與此相比的30.3和23.1％，分別較上年同期。因此，這代表了減少出口持續(xù)高經(jīng)常賬戶赤字財(cái)政失衡。換句話說，最終出口收入將不足以支付其經(jīng)常賬戶赤字。由于在出口的蓬勃發(fā)展，有必要的資金，以資助其出口行業(yè)和其他經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的增加。當(dāng)時(shí)全球金融市場(chǎng)的開放，對(duì)外部資金的來(lái)源提供了一個(gè)完美的途徑。然而，最終這些借款將擴(kuò)大的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字。

當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字?jǐn)U大，加上出口下降，由于外國(guó)資金的流入，貨幣高估，它會(huì)吸引貨幣投機(jī)者的關(guān)注。受影響的經(jīng)濟(jì)體政府將試圖捍衛(wèi)其貨幣，無(wú)論是通過提高利率或使用其外匯儲(chǔ)備貨幣撐起。當(dāng)他們提高利率，最終將帶來(lái)銀行業(yè)由于增加國(guó)外借貸成本。最終會(huì)有“逆轉(zhuǎn)資金流動(dòng)”-從外國(guó)資金流入到流出。有了這樣的資金流出，將導(dǎo)致信貸緊縮，加上高利率，它最終將影響房地產(chǎn)和銀行業(yè)。reverseflowoffunds’國(guó)際收支危危機(jī)和銀行行危機(jī)之間間的關(guān)系更更是明顯，，時(shí)下，由由于金融業(yè)業(yè)的全球化化。下表表顯示了銀銀行之間的的危機(jī)和國(guó)國(guó)際收支的的頻率。從上面的表表中可以看看出，在1980年年之前發(fā)生生的危機(jī)更更偏于收支支平衡。29個(gè)危機(jī)的總額出只有3個(gè)個(gè)是銀行業(yè)業(yè)危機(jī)。然然而，自自20世紀(jì)紀(jì)80年代代以來(lái)，銀銀行業(yè)金融融機(jī)構(gòu)總危危機(jī)上升到到23，73。因因此，我們們可以推斷斷出，現(xiàn)今今的金融危危機(jī)可能會(huì)會(huì)由結(jié)算付款和和銀行的關(guān)關(guān)系引起。Eventsin97Eventsin98Eventsin98CausesDeteriorating（不斷惡化的的）economicconditionsMoral（道德）Hazards（危危害）bybanksandcorporations（（企業(yè)）Toomuchinflow（流入）offoreignfundsStockmarketandRealEstate（（房地產(chǎn)）BubbleLackofregulatory（監(jiān)管）controlonfundsMassivedisinvestment（撤資）Speculation?Whoarespeculators（投機(jī)者）?LargeInternationalfinancialinstitutions,banksandfundmanagersattackingcentralbanksWhy?Theyshortsale（賣空）currenciesandmakethecentralbankrunoutofforeignreserves.Thisbreakstheequilibrium（平衡衡）amongcurrencies.GeorgeSorosSorosFundManagement(est.1969)AdvisesQuantumGroupofFunds（量子基金集集團(tuán)）“theManWhoBroketheBankofEngland”BlamedforsharpdevaluationofsoutheasterncurrenciesIfyouhadinvested$1kin1969,youwouldhave$1mil25yearslater(32%growth/yr.)InJulyof1997,SorosFundProfitsdoubled!SpeculatorsTakeActionsWhen…Financialmarketsareruledbyhumansemotionalreactionsthanusinglogicalcalculation!Whenadevelopingcountrystartstofinanciallyliberalizebeforeitsinstitutionsorknowledgebaseisprepared,itopensitselftothepossibilityofshocksandinstabilitywithinflowsandoutflowsoffunds!HowDidSpeculatorsTakeAdvantageofAsianMarkets?Macroeconomicindicators:LargecurrentaccountdeficitsDecliningexportsExcessivelendingtocertaineconomicsectorsWeakbankingsystems,coupledwithinadequatenationalpoliciesgoverningtheoutflowofcapitalHighlevelsofshort-termdebtNationsUnderSpeculationAttacks:ThailandMalaysiaHongKong($1b=D,$80binFixRate)PhilippinesChina(Non-ConvertibleCurrency)SouthKoreaJapanWhatHappenedinThailand?OnMay14&15,SorosattackedThaiBahtBorrowedandsoldThaibaht,receivingUSdollarsinexchangeFinancialcrisesstartedwhenBahtwasnotdefendedThebahtfell,speculatorsneededmuchlessdollarstorepaythebahtloans,thusmakinglargeprofitsThaigovernmentusedUS$20billionofforeignreservesTheCentralBankranoutofForeignReservesPreviousFinancialCrisesWhathappenedinEastAsiaisnotpeculiar(特殊的),buthasalreadyhappenedto:ManyLatinAmericancountriesin1980sSwedenandNorwayintheearly1990sMexicoin1994SoutheastAsiain1997Russiain1998Theyfacedsuddencurrencydepreciations（（貶值）duetospeculativeattacksorlargeoutflowsoffundsIMFHistoryandBackground1944––44governmentsestablishaframeworkforglobaleconomicdevelopment.1973––currenciesofmajorpowersallowedtofloat1997––AsianFinancialCrisis2008––IMFfacesbudgetshortfall2009––G-20London––memberspledge（（抵抵押押））toincreasesupplementalcashto$500B2010––membersagreetoshift6%votingsharestodevelopingnations.Currently187membernationsIMFandtheAsianFinancialCrisisImpositionof““FastTrackCapitalism””LiberalizationoffinancialsectorsRaisedomesticinterestratesbolsteringbankcapitalPegnationalcurrenciestothedollartoprotectforeigninvestors“Conditionalities””andausteritymeasuresinhibittheabilityofcountriestodeveloptheirhomeeconomiesEncourageddevaluationofcurrenciesmakingimportsmoreexpensiveBecameknownas““LenderofLastResort.””Interestratesabovemarketaverage.CriticismoftheIMFLargelycontrolledbydevelopednations“NewColonialism””austeritymeasuresinhibitlongtermeconomicgrowthWesternstyleeconomicreformsandgreaterownershipbyforeignfirmsMonetaristprioritiesoverlookpublichealth,environment,andpovertyRepaymentpoliciesdonotfosterlong-termgrowthConclusion1.Agovernmentshouldsettleitsownpoliciestoprotect