全球可再生能源市場(chǎng)更新-2022年和2023年展望

etOutlookor2022and2023INTERNTIONALGENYTheIEAexaminesfullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespolicieswillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,10associationcountriesandPleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatitsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineat/t&c/Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariestothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.Source:IEA.Allreserved.InternationalEnergyWebsite:

IEAcountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnitedUnitedStatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesinworkoftheIEA

IEAcountries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouthThailandAstracteneableelectriitycapacityadditonsbrokenotherrecodin2021adbiofuelsdeandalmostrecoeredtopre-ovidleels,dspitethecntinuationoflogistclchallengesandincreasngprices.oeer,theussianFederation’shereafter,“ussia”)iasionofkraineissendingsockaesthroughenergyandagriculturearkets,resultinginanunprecedentedglobalenergycrisis.Inanycountries,oernentsaretringtosheltercosuersfromhigherenergyprices,reducedeendenceonussiansupliesandaeproposingpolicistocceleratethetransitintocleannergytechnologies.eneableenergyhasgreatpotentialtoreducepricesanddependenceonfossilfuelsinshotandlongtr.lthoughcostsforewsolarVandindintallationshaeincresed,reersngadeade-longcstrductiontred,naturalas,oilandcoalpriceshaerisenuchfaster,thereforeactuallyfurtherimproingthecopetitienessofreeableeletricit.oeer,howrapidlyreneablescansubstitutefssilfuelshngesonseralunceraintiesandilldependonanyfactors.Wilreneableelectriitysourcesdefythsglobalenrgycrisisadcontinuetoepandquicklydespieeergingpoliticlandacroeconoicchallnges?Atthesaete,grothinbiofueseandfacessigificantheadindsfrombothloertransortdeandgrothandhighbiofuelprices.illeandgrowthresueathistorialrates?Ineploringtheostrecentarketandpolicydeelopentsasofpril2022,oureneablenergyarketpdateorecastsnwglobalreeablepoercapacityadditionsadbiofueldandfor2022and202.Italsoisusseskeyuncertaintiandpolic-relatedipliationsthatayaffectprojectionsfr2023andbeond..Al.AlrsrsrveAcwleeensThisstudyaspreparedbytheReneablenergyiisionintheirectorateofnergyarketsandcurit.Itasdesignednddirectedbyeyiahar,eniornalst.Theleaduthorsofhereportereeymiahar(eectricit)adJereyoorhouse(biofuels).hereportbenefitedfromanalsisandinputfromultiplecolleague:asinabdelilah,Piotrojek,Fran?oisriens,Trorrisell,azuhirourui,artikeerakuarandreciaodríguezJiénez(alsoresponsiblefordataanageent).aoloFranl,eadofteeneablenergyiision,proidedstrategcguidanceandinputtothisorkandcontribuedtoreleantessaging.aluablecoentsandfeedbackereproidedbyeisukeadamori,irectorofnergyMarketsandecurityirectorate.ThanksgootheIAounicationandigialisationffice()fortheirhelpinproducingthereportandebsiteaterials,particularlytoJadouawad,eadof,andtoJnster,striduond,MereErdil,ethroulln,Isabeleonain-emelin,Juieuech,oberttone,regoryiscusiandThereeWalsh.ianeunrocarriededtorialresposibilt..Al.AlrsrsrveHghgtsetlyssdwyoeys,e,dekyefere,-ssdorhnr.,ddrVeeloeesrrcennn,lsytee,tsoyoseltnr23tfydsgenn,neefdyleyseawdn,got5,eenf-ny,nsd-llysr.rVddsedonrn2d3-cseovdydt.,sy,eohrsnldleysxdorer%n,t0.,swsed,sen3erVntyerrdy-o-rds.,tsr2d3endsymrt,sogytnesfa,,enndn,ddtsnedlddn1m-19,or9s,ethod-on-ry%n2dy%n.ner,gksdynmsshnet,goa%dsnrsldh.snfessogdenny-petr,nreegtse,ewsny–ynenn–sognymsgyydUltim,etfesr3ddldrwdrsledddnex.Al.AlrsrsrveRenaeeecrctyArieflkckt21Atrdrfwthtwthwmdtetesespitethepersistentpandeic-inducedsuplychaincallenges,cnstructiondelas,andrecord-levelrawaterialandcoodityprices,reneablecapacityadditionsin2021inceased6%andbrokeanotherreord,reachngalost295W.ThisgrothisslightlyhgherthantheforecastlastearintheIEA’seneables2021.loball,the17%declineinannualindcapacityadditionsn2021asoffsetbyanincreaseinslarVandgrothinhdropoerinstallations.Theepansionofbioenrg,concentratedsolaroer(P)andgeotheralasstablein021coparedith220.Intersofspeedofgroth,reneablecapacit’sear-on-earincreaselstearassloer,fooinganceptionaljupin2020henhinesedeelopersrushdtoconnetprojectseforethephaseoutofsubsidis,specialyforonshoreind.nwblentpityddiion,-21

0

0

V Wd ro

rvl1ftIEA.Allisv.Al.Alrsrsrvehinalargeyaintaineditsarketshareofdploentin2021,ccuntingfor46%ofordiderenablecapcityadditios.oeer,newhinsecapcitydeclined2%ear-on-ear,ithonhoreindandutility-sclesolarPVnstallatios55%and22%loer,respectiel,thantherecodboomccleleelsin020hendeelopersrushedtocpleteprojectsbeforetesubsidyepirationdedline.ntheotherhnd,offshoreind,residntialslarVandbioeergyannualadditionsbrokenewrecordsthakstotheaailabiltyofsubsidiesthrugh2021.Forinstanc,offshoreindnewinstallationsincrasedalostsi-foldin2021coparedith2020.Inaddition,theoissioningofultipleunitsatthehineseaihetanhdropoerplantcontiutedtothelobalacelrationofhropoerepansions.utsideofhina,theuropeanUnionasthesecondlagestarketintersofincreasedapacit,iththeregionsurpassingorthefirsttietheall-tie-recordin2011.olarValoeaccoundfortheajorityofteuropeannion’sepansionasteardetoprjectaccleratininSpin,France,olandanderan,hichasdrienbyacobinatinofgoernent-ledauctionsnddistributedolarVincenties.Inthenitedtates,loerproductiontaxcredit(PT)ratesledtoonhoreindadditionsecliningbyone-quarter.olarPVepansionontinuedtoncreasethnkstotheiestenttaxcredits(I)aailableuntil2023-2024proidingarelatielystablepolicyenironment,eenassupplychainandlgisticlchaengeshapereduchfastergroth.nwblentpityddiionsyounryandgion,-210

ia re A ia AN inmca

iestfi

tcr

IEA.Allisv.Al.AlrsrsrveIndia’srenableenergygrothrecoeredin2021folloingarecordsldonin2020duetoprojectdelsrelatedtooid-19challenges.Wththecomissioingofalreadyauctionedutit-scaleproectsandtheacceleratinofthedistibutedPVarketduetopolicyiproeents,India’sreeablecapacityadditinsin2021orethandoubledcoparedto220.Inrai,generousneteteringinceniesfordistribuedVapplicationledoarushininstallaioshileonhoreindadditionsceleratedbcauseofspportieeconoicsfrombilateralcntractinginthefreemarket.Infrica,reneablecapacityadditionsreuedgrothiththecoissionngofpreiouslyaardedindandsolarVprojectsinuthfrica.Thephaseutofthegeerousfeed-ntariff(FIT)scheeinietamresultedinabustinthedeploentccle,iththecountr’sadditionshalingfrom2020to2021.saresult,ASEA’sannualinstllaionsdecind40%ear-on-ear,althoughstillslightlyhigerthanin219.22d203fratmmryRweptydtswlktrn2dysrPVeneablecapacityisepectedtoincreaseoer8%in222coparedithlatear,pushingthroughthe300Warkforthefirsttie.olarVisforecasttoaccountfor60%oftheincreaseinglobalrenablecapacitythiseariththecoissionngof190W,a25%ainfromlastear.tilit-scaleprojecsacountforalosto-thirdsofoerallVepansionn2022,ostlydrienyastrongpolicyenironentinhinaandtheuropeanniondriingfasterdeplent.Folloinga32%ea-on-eardeclinein221,newgobalonshreindinstallaionsareepectedtoslightyrecoerandreachalost80GW.ffshoreindgrothorldideisepectedtodecline40%in2022folloingtheeceptionalfour-foldjplastearinhinaduetothenationalsubdyphase-outdeadline.espitethisdecline,222globalofshoreindcapacityaditionsiltilldoulecoparedto2020,tanstotheconinuationofroincialientiesinhinaandtheepansionintheuropeannion.saresult,hinaisepectedtohaethelargestcuulatieinsalledofshreindcpacitygloallyandsrpasstEuropeannionandnitedingdmcobinedbytheendofthisear..Al.Alrsrsrvenlessnewandstronerpoliiesareipleentedin223,globaleneablecapacityaditionsarepectedtoeainstabecoparedith2022.WhileslarVisforecasttobreaknotherrecordin2023,reachingalost200W,andiththeepansonofindandbioenegyreainingstable,4%loerhdropoeradditionsetoarededprojectpelineinhnastiesapacitygrothintheglobalrenableenergyarket.tnwblepityddiionsythnolog,0223

trwi0

7 8

yritidVtiy-clefsreirei'sserxs)IEA.AllisvHrrPVdwdtseeetotyn0d23ttyoteottricesforanyrawaterialsandfeightcosshaebeenonanincreaingtrendsincethebginningof021.yarch2022,thepriceofV-gradepolsiiconorethanquadrupled,steelncreasedby50%,copprroseby70%,aluiniumdoubledandfreightcostsrosealostfie-fold.Therersaloftelong-termtrendofdecreasingcostsisrefctedinthehigherpricesofindturbinesandVodulesasanufacturerspasshroughinceasedequientcosts.oparedith2020,eestiatethattheoverallinestentcostsofnewutilit-scaleVandonshoreindplantsarefrom15%to25%igherin202.urgingreightcossarethebiggestconributortooerallpriceicreasesforonshoreind.Forsolar,theipactisoreeenlydiidedaongeleatedpricesforreight,polsiliconandetals..Al.AlrsrsrveSolrPVndonhoewdinmntotimsornwondpojtsundrhighommoditypisXXx(=05 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 UiiyscleslrV OsoewndIEA.Allisvighpricesoroil,naturlgasandcalalocotributetorisigproductioncostsfanufacturedaterialsforreneableelectriitytechnologissincefosilfuelsareusedinbothindustrialprocessesadpoergeneration.etne,eenssedrsesflsdyntahreeetrf.,rsegcsnysfe,yelgsselygelyryenyey.ssytnnn,eersn,,ydnedendnedhnsm6oistoricall,long-termcontractpricsfromsolarVandindauctionshaebeenhigherthanholesalepricesinanylargeuropeannionarkets.oeer,eenthehihest-pricedonshoreidandutlityscalecontrctsignederthelastfieearsarehalfoftheaerageholesalepricesseenodayintheuropeannion.Fornewlycontractedprojets,despitecostincreaes,onshoreindandsolarPVenturesareofferinglng-termcontractssigificantlyloerthanholesalericeaeragesoerthelastsixonths.Forinsance,pricesforutility-scalesolarVandonshoreindpojectsincrased15-25%inthereentpanishauctionhldineceer2021,toD37/MWhandSD35/Wh,respectiel.Toda,theseresultsareone-tenthofaerageSpanishhoesaleelectcitypricesoerthelast14onths..Al.Alrsrsrveilit-leolrPVl)ndonhoewdgh)uionontndwllepwrpisinledEuopnnionouni,qurlyvgsom-2//Wh

DD/Wh12341234123412341234123416 7 8 9 0 1D/Wh12341234123412341234123416 7 8 9 0 1 ry re in tyrein rytn tyn iniIEA.Allisvrsttsfr2d3eenrswsy%frmtrldyCadteEUhinaaccuntsfortheajorityofupardforecastreisinsfor2022and2023sinceourlatreport,depitethephseoutofinentiesforalreneableslastear.Theepansionisduetoultiplegoernentandarketfactors.First,thegenerationcostsofsarVandonshoreindareloerthancoalbencharkpricesintheajorityofproinces.econd,thegoernentannounced450Wofadditionallrge-scaleoshoreindandsolarVegaprojectsintheinjiangadInnerongoliaproines,knonas“ega-hubs”,ith100Wstartingdeelopentatthebegnningof202.Third,hna’sinitryofFnanceconfiredthepayentofoutstandingreneableenergysubsidiesorhD60billiontobepaidthrouh2022,iproingthebalanceheetofdeelopersandunlocingadditionalfndsfornewprojects.ourth,intheabsenceofnationalsubsidis,proincialgoernentsarestillproidingtaxincentiesandlow-costfiancingtoreneableenergyprojects.Intheuropeannion,solarVaccountsfortheajorityofupardreisions,ithfasterpolicyipleentationdriinggrothinGeran,theetherlands,oland,ItalyandFrnce.oeer,theEurpeannionsonshoreindgrothasreiseddonduetoongoingperittingchallengesoingdeploentineran,olandandtal.razil’sgenerousnteteringcheeresutsinadstriutedVarketboo,supportingupardreisionstotheLatinericaforecas.InIndia,delaedprojectsin2021leadstohihergrothn2022,ithincreasedistributedsolarPVcpacitysuportingtheoerallupardreisions..Al.AlrsrsrveyrttsndtrerslehtrmwddrPVwhnteUtdSttsonglargereneableenergyarkets,theforecastisreiseddoninthenitedtatesdueouncertainyoernewincentiesfrbothindandsolarV.ultiplepolicyproosals,incldinglong-trmtaxincentieetensions,haeettobeapproedbytheouseofepresentatiesandSenate.ewtradepolicisonolarVhaealsoincrasedchllngesfordelopersinthenitedtates.InJune2021,thegoernmentbannediportsfromseeralpolsiliconroducersoatedininjang,hinaolloingtheindicationfomtheustosandorderrotectionagncythatthsecopanesusefocdlabourintheiranufacturing.Inaddition,atheendofarch2022,heSepartentofomercelaunchedanewinestigationtoasssshethersolarcelspoducedinoutheastsiaareadeithpartsanufacturedinhinathataresubjecttoaniporttariffiposedin2018.incetheintrodctionoftaifsin2018,outheastsiancountiesschasieta,Malasia,andIndonesiaeplacediortsfromhina,suplingoer80%oftheountr’scellandoduleiports.Thenewinestigationandthepossiblityofadditionaltariffscopoundingprcureentchallengesnthesortter,reducngtheaaiabilityofsoarVodules.saresult,eaeloeredourforecastforsolarVby17%in2022and9%in2023.Japan’sreeablecapacityadditionsin2022-2023arealsoreiseddonfromlastear,ainlyduetolorFITapproalforsolar.Theneweed-inpreum(FI)scheejuststartedinpril2022.hiscoudladtoadditinalcapaitygrothforsolarVadonshoreindinthelngerter,butforecastuncertaintyreainsintheshortte.2nd03nwbepityfostiion,embr1vsMay2iinmicaWdANJidt-% -% % % % % IEA.Alligsv.Al.AlrsrsrvetriettnfsetetnteErnUnd,weCatishinaaccontsfor45%ofglobalreablecaacityadditinsin202-023,iththecoissioningofer140Wonaeragepereardrienostlybylarge-scalesoarVdeployment.Theexpansiontrndinhinaisfullyin-lneiththegoernent’s1200WindandsolarVtargetby2030.Annualadditionsareepectedtoreainsligtlyhighercparedith2020-2021,henthecuntrysawultipledeloentrushesduetoncentiephase-outscedulesfornshoreindandutilit-saleVin2020,andoffhoreindandresidentalPVin2021.nnulrgepityddiionsbyounryndgion--7-9-1-3-7-9-1-ia dC0

trcrietfiiniaidrIEA.AllisvIntheEuropeannion,rapidipleentationofpreiouslyannouncedabitiouspolicytargetsandalreadyaardedauctions,cbinedithcontinuousincentiesfordistributdsolarV,drietheexpansion.Inresponsetotheussininasionofkraine,anyEuropeannioncountriesannouncedplanstoacceleratereneablesdeploentaiedatreducingtheirdependenceonussiannaturalgasiports.eran,theetherlandsandortugaleitherincrasedtheirreneableenergyabitionsorovedtheirinialtargetstoanearlierdate.Weepectthattheipactofthesenewpolicisillbeliitedby2023,especiallyfrlarge-scaleprojectsthatrequiredevelopenttielinesoforethan18onths.oeer,ourforecastseessoeupsideondistributedVasresientialandcoercialinstallaionsenableconuerstoreducetheirelectricitybilsthroughself-consuption..Al.Alrsrsrvenwblepityddiionsinhin,Eunnion,heSndndi,-299012390123901239012ia U idts ia0lrV Wd yrr trwIEA.AllisvInIndia,nwrecordsfrreneablecapacityepansionareepectedtobesetin2022and2023asdelaedprojectsfrompreiouscopetitieauctionsacoissioned,especillyforsolarV.onetheless,tefinancialhealthofdistributioncopanies(ICs)reainstepriarychallengetoreneableenergydeploentinIndia,ithotentialprectcacelltionsandrotractedcontractreegotiations.Inthenitedtates,anualcapaiyadditionsreepectedtoslowoer2022and2023.WindandsolarVsectorsfcetokeyhallengesoachieefatergrothintheshortter.First,helackoflng-termisibilityonfutreincentiescheeshasreducdtheprojetpipelinefronshoreinddeelopentsandhePTphaseddnfromtheinitialraeofD19/Whforprojectsbeginningconstructoninin2016toD10/MWhforconstructionstaringin2019,reducingeconoicatractieness.WhilesusequenteensionsofheTCin2020and2021haebeenathighrrates,thoeearsfallutsideofourforecastpeiodgiendeelopenttielines.econd,potentialslarVtraeeasuresagaintoutheastsiancountres,inadditintohina,arereducingtheaailabiliyofsolarodulesintheshorttermandleadingtohigherprices,hiherealreadyinflatedduetoeleatedcomodityprices.urrentproductionofodulesintheUnitedStatescanonlyeetlessthan2%oflastear’sannualdeandandthereareliitedanufacturersutsideofieta,Indonesia,abodia,alasiaandhinathatanproideVproductstotheSmarket..Al.Alrsrsrvenwblepityddiionsinzil,SE,MidleEtndi,-990123901239012rzl AN ietdfca86420lrV Wd yrr trwIEA.AllisvWhilesalerinabsolueters,sinificantgrthoccursandacceleatesinotherorldregios,notablyatinerica,theiddeastandorthfric.Inrazl,eepectreneableapacityaddtionstobrekanotherrcordin2022duetothegenerouseteteringscheeupportingistributedolarVepansion.oeer,neteteringincentiesbegintophasedonin2023,resultiginslightlyloercapactyadditionsn2023.ThearingcoissoningdealinesofcpetitieauctionsandbilaterlcontractsinASEANcanleadtofuctuatinguilit-scaleindandVcapactyepansion.Vieta’spolicyboomandbustccleshaeldtosigniiantlyloercapacityaditionscoparedith2020.FollongthesolarVboomin2020andonshoreidin2021,ietNa’sreneableapacityaddtionsarefrecasttodeclinefrom17GWoer2020-2021tojust6Wfor2022-2023.Intheiddleastandfrica,thepushforolarPVdriesannualcapacityadditions.allingsstmcosts,goodresourcepotential,faourablefinancingconditionsndeconoesofscaleakesolarVprojectsinheddleasteconoicalyattractie.Insub-aharanfrica,goernentguaranteesorbackingfromdeelopentbanksforutility-scalesolar,indandhdropoerprojectsarefuellinggroth.WddrPVetepttltoeteErnrtoreonRnsyussiasupliesaroud45%ofteEuropeanUnion’ssiportsfrindustr,hoesandelectriitygeneration.orelectrcitygeneration,naturalgsaccounsforaround6%ofthegoup’stotaloerdeand.erthelastdecade,natural.Al.Alrsrsrvegas-fuelledelectriitygenerationnnuallyrangedfrom340TWhto600TWh,dependingonthepriceenironent,indandsolarVpenetration,andinterdeand.onsideringcountry-leelsupplydependencies,estiatethatbeteen100TWhto200TWhofuropeanUnionnaturalgas-basedelectriityisproidedbyussia.ntheotherhand,ourforecatsindicateincreentalgrothofreneableelectriitygenerationupto180TWhfrom2021-2023,alostequaltothehighestalueofussiadeendentgas-firedgeneration.Withcurrentdeploenttrends,indandsolarVepansionintheEuropeanUnionhasthepotentialtoreducethedependenceonussiangasuseinelectriitysignificantl.oeer,thecontribuinofariabereneablsillalsoependonolicisonenergyefficiencyeasureskeepingdeandincheckandtephase-outorphase-donpolicisforcoaladnucleareergyinseeraleberstates.Euopnnionnulg-idliitygenionor101andnwbeliitygniongwhor-2WhWh

lr

Wd0 tl0

ihUlsrndhs

shIEA.AllisvEuropeannioncountreshaearingleelsofdependncyonussiaforthirnaturalgassuppl.mongeberstates,eranyandItalyhaethehighestdependencyonRussiaintersofabsoluteelctricitygeneration.oweer,thepotentialforreneablestoreducedependencyineranyissignifcantyhigherthaninItalybasedonurindandsolarepectationsby2023–unlessnewandstrongerpolciesareintoducedandthepaceofipleentationpicsp.Franceandtheetherlands’dpendencyonussiagsisrelaielylow,enablingahigherpotentialforreneablestodisplacenaturalgas.onersel,inustria,ungaryandreecereneablesepansonreainsliitedtoreducetecountries’dependencyonussia..Al.Alrsrsrvegennulnulg-idliitygenionin601andnwbeliitygniongwhor-23inldEUmmbrrtysralreryeNrreltfWh

0 0 0 0 0

0

elsytn,ehr3IEA.AllisveglryrissntrdefrsttsadsttgtereefrwetrityTheussininasionofkrainehasaddednewurgencytoacceleateclenenergytransitionsinordertoreduethedepedencyofiportedfosilfuelsfromussia,ithdeploentoforereneablesnowastrategiciperatieforanycountries,specialyintheuropeannion.Indeed,sinceeneables2021aspublishedlsteceber,thegloblenergycrisshasoedthegoalostsforthedeploentofsolar,indandoterreneableenergysources,andehaeupdatedourforecastsinthisnewreportinresponse.anyuropeannioncountriesheannouncedplanstoadancedeelopentofreneables,ithidandsolarVholdingthegreatestpotentialtoreducetheuropeannion’spoersectordepndenceonussiaby2023.Thehighfossilfuelpreenironmenthasiproedthecostcopetitienessofreneableelectriitytechnologiesagainstcolandnatualgas-fueedpoerplants.enhile,resdentialandcoercialsolarVaplicatiosaehelpingconsuersreducetherelectriitybills.oeer,despitetheirpoential,anaccelerationinnewreneablescpacityishihlydependentuponastablepolicyenironentproidinglong-termrevenuecertaityandfasterperitting.Inourforecst,goernment-ledcopetitieindandsolarVauctionsn2019ad2020reainakeydrierforreneablesepansionthrough2023.uctionoluesslightlydelnedin2021duetoloeraardedcapacityinhinaandndiahiletheyincreaedintheropeannionandLatinerica..Al.Alrsrsrveoeer,geopoliticlndacroeconoicchalengesicraseuncertantiesoerreneableelectriityforecastsbend2023.igherindandsolarVinestentcostsdueoeleatedcooditypricesinteakeofussia’sinasionandperittingelasresuledintelestfirst-qarterauctinoluesgloballyn2022sine2016.Inadition,olatiityinelectcityarketsduetoshaplyhighergasprceshascopliatedcontrctnegotitinsforcororatepoerpurchaeagreeents(PPA),especiallyintheuropeanUnion,hilerisinginterestratesarecopoundingchallengsforreneabledeelopers.ilit-leolrPVdonhoewduinpityandopoePPsoriqu,06o5 reid tiy-cleV rteAs linvms(ti) 0 5 01

1

1

1

1

1

01IEA.AllisvSc:orcpePPAs:BlmgewErgyicWhilesoeofthesediffcultieslllkelyreaininthecoingonthsandintonetear,causinglooingmarketuncerainties,thenewfocusonenergysecurity–inparticularintheuroeannion–isalsotrggeringanunprecedenedpolicyoentumtoardsaceleratingeergyefficiecyandreneables.ltatel,theforecastofreneablemarketsfor2023andbeondilldependonhethernewandstrongrpolicisilbeintroduedandipleentedinthenetsixonths..Al.AlrsrsrveransrtoeArieflkckt21AnncyasctyrsadwrDPeswhtsiofueldeandrecoeredin2021fomCoidlos,tonear2019leels.oeer,in2022eepecthigerpricesforoiladbiouels,obinedithlerPepectations,toslowdeandgrowthby20%coparedtoourpreiousforecas.rothintransportationfuels,albetatoreodestleels,andstrngtheningbiofuelpoliesstildrieear-on-yearbiofueldeandhigherby5%in2022and3%in2023.iofueldemandin2021reached155400illionlitres,returnigtonear2019leels.eandrose8700illionlitresear-on-ear,whichissiiartooureneables2021estitefromeeber2021.Thercoeryacrossueltpesasuneen,hoeer.thanoldeandrose6%ear-on-earin2021butreained7%below2019leels.ycontrast,reneableieselseepandedbyround70%rom2019andbiodieeldeandrose0.2%fom2019.iouldndin-1byultpeompadwhnwls1oe00

me(mme(mntrs/r)0

000

00

l0l

t

i

leiIEA.Allissv.Al.Alrsrsrve22d203fratmmryHhsowbfsmdrwthussia’sinasionofraineissedingshcksthrougheergyandagricultuearkets,orseningalradyhighprices.sarsult,biofuldeandgrothisnowforecasttolowby20%in2022,equialentto2200illionlitres,coparedithourpreiousforecastofahigherincreaseof11000illionlires.Weakerdeandgrothfortransportationfuelslargeyunderpinsourdonwardreision.sof4pril2022,heIAepectsglobloldeandgrothillbe1.2%loerthisearcoparedtoourJanuaryforecast.Tedonardreisionisuetoacobinationofoid-relatedobiliyrestrictiosinhinaandeakerPgrowth.incebiofuelsareblendedthgasolineanddiesel,sloergrothintransortationdeanddirectlyipactsbiofueldeand,ithdclinesdeepstiniportntbiofuelarketssuhasurope,thenitedtatesandrazil.Theagriculuralindustryisstruggligithitsonpriceshoks,hichinturnhaedrienupbofuelprcesinostarkets.ncresesarybyregionandyfuel.Foreaple,razilsethanolpricesareup20%hileinthenitedtatestheyareup30%sinceJanuary2022.loball,biodieselriceshaerisenbeteen20-30%thisearalone.ricencreasesaeontopofalreadyloftyleelsreportedineceber’seneables2021.Inresponse,seralgoernentsarerelaingordelaingpolcies,hichalsocontrutetosloigdeandgroth.Toestiatetheipactnbiofuessnceusianadedkraine,ecparedourcurrentforecastagaintapre-inasionJanaryassesent.Thisforecastincorporatedchangingoildeandandpricedeelopentssiceheannuleneables2021aspublishedineceber2021.Theupdateledoasight0.5%donardreisiontoournew2022forecst.Piendolicyimptsonhe2oa5me(me(ntrsrr)505050

tfrdlbalendenabeslbalendenabesJnury022end221oecstpdteeciesuet uetoecst oecst221 222 223rrzidtIEA.Allisv.Al.Alrsrsrveazilaccuntsfortheajorityofthedecineinglobalbofueldeandgroth.eandhasbeenreisedloeracrossalransportfelsfrompre-inasionJanuaryestiates,ithgasolinenw-0.2%anddieselat-0.7%in2022ersus2021leels.Loertranportfuelseslos2022razilianbofueldeandgrothby40%comparedtoJauaryprojections.Inthenitdtates,ehaereiseddonour2022biofulsgrothby15%fromJanuar’s