中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前沿-教學(xué)大綱

《中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前沿（英語(yǔ)）》教學(xué)大綱

TheFrontierofChineseEconomySyllabus課程編號(hào)：CourseCode:150082B課程類型：專業(yè)選修課總學(xué)時(shí)：Hours:32講課學(xué)時(shí)：LectureHours:32實(shí)驗(yàn)（上機(jī)）學(xué)時(shí)：LabHours:0學(xué)分：Credits:2適用對(duì)象：金融學(xué)（金融經(jīng)濟(jì)）ApplicableMajor:Finance先修課程：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理，中級(jí)微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，中級(jí)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)Prerequisites:PrinciplesofEconomics,PrinciplesofAccounting一、課程的教學(xué)目標(biāo)（60@k）中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前沿是經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融類專業(yè)本科生的專業(yè)選修課程，包括中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析和當(dāng)代中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)研究。該課程的教學(xué)對(duì)于培養(yǎng)學(xué)生經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)思維方式，實(shí)際運(yùn)用所學(xué)理論知識(shí)，提高學(xué)生綜合素質(zhì)有著重要意義。本課程教學(xué)的主要目標(biāo)是培養(yǎng)學(xué)生運(yùn)用所學(xué)的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融學(xué)的知識(shí)和分析方法，針對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題，構(gòu)建宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的分析框架，從而合理的觀察、分析并預(yù)測(cè)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，為后續(xù)課程的學(xué)習(xí)和未來(lái)走向工作崗位打下堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。ThefrontierofChineseeconomyisamajorselectivecourseforundergraduatestudentsinFinanceandEconomics,whichcoverstheanalysisofChinesemacroeconomicsandfinancialmarkets.Thiscoursecanhelpstudentstobuiltupthewayofthinkingaseconomistsandapplytheirknowledgeineconomicsandfinance,soastoimprovetheircomprehensiveability.ThemainpurposeofthiscourseisteachstudentstousetheirknowledgeandskillstoformtheframeworktoanalyzetheChineseeconomy,andgetasolidandsoundunderstanding,whichishelpfulfortheirfuturestudyandwork.二、教學(xué)基本要求(Requirement)本課程的主要內(nèi)容是介紹我國(guó)當(dāng)年經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題，幫助學(xué)生更好地理解當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的狀況，并對(duì)未來(lái)我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)有合理的判斷，以及代表性行業(yè)的發(fā)展前景預(yù)測(cè)。本課程首先回顧近二十年來(lái)的中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的歷史，重點(diǎn)闡述我國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行周期，包括人口結(jié)構(gòu)分析，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)周期，經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)分析，人民幣匯率和通貨膨脹的回顧，產(chǎn)能周期的分析，并重點(diǎn)介紹資產(chǎn)重估理論。本課程的后半部分將針對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、制造業(yè)、房地產(chǎn)業(yè)和利率市場(chǎng)化等課題展開(kāi)詳細(xì)討論，最后分析并預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的展望。本課程的考核方式及其所占權(quán)重如下：出勤及作業(yè)：20%期中閉卷考試：40%期末閉卷考試：40%ThiscourseismainlyfocusesonhottopicsinthecurrentChineseeconomy,andhelpstudentsbetterunderstandthedevelopmentofChineseeconomy,thenhaveasolidandsoundforecastingonthemacro-economyandsometypicalsectors.Thiscoursefirstreviewstheeconomicdevelopmentinrecentdecades,especiallyontheeconomicpoliciesandbusinesscycles,whichcoversthepopulationstructure,economicgrowth,economicstructure,foreignexchangerateandinflation,productioncapacitycycles,andthenendsupwiththeassetre-evaluationtheory.Inthesecondhalfofthiscourse,wecoversometopicssuchaseconomicgrowth,manufacturingsector,realestatesector,andfinancialsector,andfinallydiscussandforecasttheeconomicdevelopmentinthefuture.Theevaluationofthiscourseisasfollows:Attendanceandassignments:20%MidtermExam(ClosedBook):40%FinalExam(ClosedBook):40%三、各教學(xué)環(huán)節(jié)學(xué)時(shí)分配(Schedule)

教學(xué)課時(shí)分配序號(hào)Number章節(jié)內(nèi)容Content講課Lecture實(shí)驗(yàn)Lab其他Others合計(jì)Total1經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究方法和思路Methodologyineconomicresearch12宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析新思路Newwaytoanalyzethemacroeconomic23人口結(jié)構(gòu)分析Populationstructure24經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)周期回顧Economicgrowthcycle25經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的平衡Economicstructure26貨幣與人民幣匯率Currencyandforeignexchangerate37通貨膨脹再分析Inflation28產(chǎn)能周期再觀察Outputcycle29資產(chǎn)重估理論Assetre-evaluation210案例分析Casestudy211我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)奇跡的回顧C(jī)hinesemiracle212制造業(yè)的再分析2Manufacturingsector13房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)簡(jiǎn)介Realestatesector414利率市場(chǎng)化簡(jiǎn)介Interestrateliberalization215我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)展望Economicforecast2合計(jì)Total32四、教學(xué)內(nèi)容(Content)第一章經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究方法TheMethodologyinEconomics第一節(jié)供給與需求SupplyandDemand第二節(jié)長(zhǎng)期與短期LongTermandShortTerm、第三節(jié)人口結(jié)構(gòu)分析PopulationstructureAnalysis第四節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)周期回顧ReviewonBusinessCycles教學(xué)重點(diǎn)、難點(diǎn)：本章重點(diǎn)是從人口結(jié)構(gòu)的角度來(lái)構(gòu)建宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的分析框架，并以此為基礎(chǔ)回顧我國(guó)近年來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期。課程的考核要求：本章要求學(xué)生掌握如何從人口結(jié)構(gòu)的角度分析經(jīng)濟(jì)周期。復(fù)習(xí)思考題：請(qǐng)從人口結(jié)構(gòu)的角度分析我國(guó)近10年來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期KeyPoints:ThischapterfocusesontheanalysisframeworkfromthestructureofpopulationandusesittoexplainthebusinesscyclesinChineseeconomyinrecentdecades.Requirement:Thischapterrequiresstudentstounderstandandgrasptheanalysisframeworkfromtheperspectiveofpopulationstructure.SummaryProblems:Pleaseexplainthebusinesscyclesinrecentdecadesfromtheanalysisframeworkintroducedinclass.第二章經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的平衡BalanceofEconomicStructure第一節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的平衡與失衡Balanceandimbalanceineconomicstructure第二節(jié)企業(yè)對(duì)居民部門(mén)的擠壓Crowdoutfromprivatesector第三節(jié)政府對(duì)居民部門(mén)的擠壓Crowdoutfromgovernment第四節(jié)居民部門(mén)的貧富差距Inequalityinhouseholdsector教學(xué)重點(diǎn)、難點(diǎn)：本章重點(diǎn)是以人口結(jié)構(gòu)理論為基礎(chǔ)，從居民消費(fèi)的角度闡述經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的失衡，并且闡述私人部門(mén)和政府對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的擠壓，造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的變動(dòng)。課程的考核要求：本章要求學(xué)生掌握從居民消費(fèi)的角度解釋我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的變動(dòng)，理解并掌握私人部門(mén)和政府部門(mén)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的擠壓造成的影響。復(fù)習(xí)思考題：請(qǐng)解釋私人部門(mén)和政府部門(mén)對(duì)居民消費(fèi)的擠壓造成的后果。KeyPoints:Thischapterfocusesonthehouseholdconsumptionfluctuationfromtheperspectiveofpopulation,andthenfurtherdiscussestheconsequencesofcrowdingouteffectsfromprivatesectorandgovernmentsector.Requirement:ThischapterrequiresstudentstoexplainthebusinesscyclesandconsumptionfluctuationinChineseeconomyfromtheperspectiveofhouseholdandpopulationstructure.第三章貨幣與人民幣匯率CurrencyandExchangeRates第一節(jié)貨幣的儲(chǔ)值功能Depositofcurrency第二節(jié)影子銀行ShadowBanks第三節(jié)匯率與貿(mào)易差額ExchangeRatesandCurrentAccount第四節(jié)匯率與資本賬戶ExchangeRatesandCapitalAccount教學(xué)重點(diǎn)、難點(diǎn)：本章重點(diǎn)介紹貨幣的儲(chǔ)值功能，并討論影子銀行的作用和影響，進(jìn)一步闡述匯率和貿(mào)易差額和資本賬戶之間的關(guān)系。課程的考核要求：本章要求學(xué)生理解貨幣的儲(chǔ)值功能，了解影子銀行的影響，掌握匯率和貿(mào)易差額和資本賬戶之間的關(guān)系。復(fù)習(xí)思考題：請(qǐng)簡(jiǎn)要闡述匯率、貿(mào)易差額和資本賬戶之間的關(guān)系，并解釋進(jìn)0年來(lái)我國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易市場(chǎng)變動(dòng)。KeyPoints:Thischaptermainlyfocusesontheintroductionofsavingfunctionofcurrencyandtheeffectsofshadowbanks,andexplainstherelationshipamongexchangerates,currentaccountsandcapitalaccounts.Requirement:Thischapterrequiresstudentstounderstandthesavingfunctionofcurrencyandshadowbanks,andtounderstandtherelationshipamongexchangerates,currentaccountsandcapitalaccounts.SummaryProblem:Pleaseexplaintherelationshipamongexchangerates,currentaccount,andcapitalaccount,andfurtherexplainthefluctuationininternationaltrademarketsinrecentdecades.第四章通貨膨脹再分析Chapter4：Re-AnalysisonInflation第一節(jié)可貿(mào)易部門(mén)的通貨膨脹InflationinTradableSectors第二節(jié)食品類通貨膨脹InflationinFoodSector第三節(jié)不可貿(mào)易部門(mén)的通貨膨脹InflationinNon-TradableSectors教學(xué)重點(diǎn)、難點(diǎn)：本章的重點(diǎn)闡述我國(guó)近20年來(lái)的通貨膨脹歷史，并且分部門(mén)討論通貨膨脹背后的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。課程的考核要求：本章要求學(xué)生能夠掌握我國(guó)當(dāng)代的通貨膨脹歷史，并且區(qū)分不同部門(mén)的通貨膨脹的特點(diǎn)。復(fù)習(xí)思考題：請(qǐng)指出我國(guó)可貿(mào)易部門(mén)和不可貿(mào)易部門(mén)通貨膨脹周期的不同特點(diǎn)及其成因。KeyPoints：Thischaptermainlyfocusesonthereviewofthehistoryofinflationhistoryinrecentdecades,anddiscussestheunderlyingfactors,whichdifferencebetweentradablesectorsandnon-tradablesectors.Requirement:Graspthehistoryofinflationhistoryandexplainthefactorswhichdrivetheinflationindifferentsectors.SummaryProblems:Pleaseexplainthefactorswhichdrivetheinflationintradablesectorsandnon-tradablesectors.第五章產(chǎn)能周期再觀察DiscussiononOutputCycle第一節(jié)資本約束CapitalConstraint第二節(jié)國(guó)際收支下的分析AnalysisinOpenEconomy第三節(jié)歷史案例分析CaseStudies教學(xué)重點(diǎn)、難點(diǎn)：本章重點(diǎn)闡述在國(guó)際收支背景下的我國(guó)產(chǎn)能周期的分析，以及2005-2007年的周期和2008-2012年周期的異同課程的考核要求：掌握開(kāi)放宏觀框架下的產(chǎn)能周期分析，掌握近年來(lái)兩次產(chǎn)能周期的異同復(fù)習(xí)思考題：請(qǐng)分析比較2005-2007年的產(chǎn)能周期和2008-2012年的產(chǎn)能周期。KeyPoints:Thischapterfocusesontheoutputcycleanalysisinthecontextofopeneconomy,andcomparestwocyclesinrecentdecade.Requirement:Thischapterrequiresstudentstounderstandandapplythemethodologytoanalyzetheoutputcyclesinopeneconomy.SummaryProblems:Pleasecomparetwooutputcycles2005-2007and20082012.第六章資產(chǎn)重估理論AssetPricingTheory第一節(jié)資產(chǎn)配置的約束ConstraintsonAssetAllocation第二節(jié)資產(chǎn)配置的優(yōu)化OptimizationonAssetAllocation第三節(jié)從資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表看資產(chǎn)配置AssetAllocationfromBalanceSheets教學(xué)重點(diǎn)、難點(diǎn)：本章的重點(diǎn)是從資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表出發(fā)闡述資產(chǎn)配置模型，進(jìn)而從加總的層面構(gòu)造宏觀的資產(chǎn)配置的分析框架，并且在開(kāi)放宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的條件下討論我國(guó)近20年來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期課程的考核要求：本章要求學(xué)生掌握開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)下的資產(chǎn)配置模型，并以此分析我國(guó)近年來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期復(fù)習(xí)思考題：復(fù)述開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下的資產(chǎn)配置模型，并以此解釋近年來(lái)權(quán)益市場(chǎng)的估值變化。KeyPoints:Thischapterfocusesontheassetallocationmodelbasedonthebalancesheets,andthenbuildsuptheframeworkofaggregatedassetallocation,anddiscussesbusinesscyclesinrecentdecades.Requirement:Thischapterrequiresstudentstounderstandandgrasptheassetallocationmodelanduseittoanalyzethebusinesscycleinrecent20years.SummaryProblems:PleaseexplaintheassetallocationmodelandapplyittothebusinesscycleinChineseeconomy.第七章案例分析Chapter7：CaseStudies第一節(jié)貨幣擴(kuò)張的案例MonetaryExpansion第二節(jié)總需求擴(kuò)張的案例AggregatedDemandExpansion第三節(jié)總需求收縮的案例AggregatedDemandContraction教學(xué)重點(diǎn)、難點(diǎn)：本章重點(diǎn)是以近20年來(lái)我國(guó)貨幣政策和總需求變動(dòng)周期，并從資產(chǎn)配置的角度加以解釋。課程的考核要求：本章要求學(xué)生掌握近二十年來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的貨幣政策的變動(dòng)和總需求的周期性變化。復(fù)習(xí)思考題：請(qǐng)從資產(chǎn)配置的角度解釋我國(guó)近二十年來(lái)的總需求的變動(dòng)。KeyPoints:ThischapterfocusesonthemonetarypoliciesandaggregateddemandfluctuationinrecentdecadesinChineseeconomyandexplainsthesephenomenafromthetheoryofassetallocation.Requirements:ThischapterrequiresstudentstograspandunderstandthemonetarypoliciesandaggregateddemandfluctuationinChineseeconomyandtoexplainfromtheperspectiveofassetallocation.SummaryProblems:Pleasegiveanexplanationontheaggregateddemandfluctuationfromtheperspectiveofassetallocation.第八章經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及行業(yè)專題研究Chapter8：EconomicGrowthandIndustryTopics第一節(jié)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的奇跡ThemiracleofChineseeconomicgrowth第二節(jié)制造業(yè)Manufacturing第三節(jié)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)RealEstatesSector第四節(jié)資本市場(chǎng)Sect