CIDOB-大流行后的歐盟會是什么樣子？歐洲尋求復(fù)蘇的十大挑戰(zhàn)（英文）-2021.5-6正式版

CIDOBnotes

internacionals

ISSN:2013-4428

250

MAY

2021

WHATWILLTHEEULOOKLIKEPOST-PANDEMIC?

TenchallengesforaEuropeinsearchofrecovery

CIDOBresearchersrespond

ThepandemichasresizedgeopoliticalprioritiesandchallengesfortheEuropeanUnion.Exitingthehealth,socioeconomicandpoliticalcrisisofthecoronaviruswillbringprogressonthegreenanddigitalEu-rope.However,nosubstantialchangesareinsightintheUnion’sinstitutionalarrange-mentsortreatiesafterthiscrisis.

TheEUhaspositioneditselfamongtheverysmallgroupofactorswiththecapacityforvaccineinnovation,productionanddistribu-tion.Someoftheseactors,likeRussia,ChinaandtoalesserextentIndia,havebegunageopoliticalracetoconsolidateorextendtheirareasofinfluencethroughcontractsanddonations.Yet,theUnion’spriorityistoensureinternalcohesionandvaccinationofaveryelderlyandthereforeparticularlyvul-nerablepopulation.

ThepandemichasstrengthenedsupportforasocialandemploymentmodelthatprotectsEuropeans,asthelatestEurobarometersshow.WiththeadoptionofthenewEuro-peanSocialAgendaatasummitinPortoaroundthecorner(June2021),thetimeisripetocommittoincludingasocialdimen-sionintherecoveryplans(atbothlocalandnationallevel).

FuturescenariosfortheEU:resistortransform

PolMorillas,Director,CIDOB

@polmorillas

CriseshavedrivenprogressthroughoutthehistoryoftheEuropeanconstruction,andthepastdecadehasbroughtnoshortageofopportunities.Butmorethangreatleapsforward,theEuropeanUnionhassurvivedbymuddlingthrough,despitemanyofthecrisesap-pearingtoposeexistentialdangers.

Theeurozonecrisisthreateneditssurvival,butultimatelyproducedgreatercoordinationandsu-pervision–albeitwithoutreformtofiscalrulesorprogressoneconomicunion.The2015refugeecrisisledtoarrivalsbeingreducedwithoutdestroyingtheSchengenArea,butacommonasylumpolicystillseemsalongwayoff.Brexitshowedthattheunioncanalsodisintegrate,butthedreadeddominoeffectdidnotmaterialiseandthetradeagreementwiththe

UnitedKingdomfitswithBrussels’prioritiesandprocedures.

Exitingthehealth,socioeconomicandpoliticalcrisisofthecoronaviruswillbringprogressonthegreenanddigitalEurope,withtheNextGenerationEUfundsambitiousinbothsizeandscope.Thetaboosonfiscalexpansionandcommondebt–suchadragontherecoveryadecadeago–havebeenbroken.WhileinthehealthfieldtheEuropeanCommissionhasstretcheditslimitedprerogativestocoordinatetheacquisitionanddistributionofvaccines,despitesupplyissues.

However,beyondvaccinationandtheimplementa-tionofNextGenerationEU,thereisnosignthatsub-

CIDOBnotesinternacionals250.MAY2021 1

stantialchangeseithertoinstitutionalarrangementsorthetreatieswillemergefromthiscrisis.Muddling

throughwillremaintheEU’sdefaultstrategy.

Whenweareabletolookback,thesetimeswillshowafamiliarpatternofaction:growingexpectationsre-gardingtheEU’sroleabroad(withageopoliticalEu-ropethatspeaksthelanguageofpowerevenifitstrug-glestopracticeit);gradualbutsubstantialreformsathome(empoweringthegreen,digitalEurope);andsomeinstitutionaldeficienciesandblockagesindeci-sion-makingresultingfromatoned-downConferenceontheFutureoftheEU.

ThevaccineputsgeopoliticalEuropetothetest

EduardSoleriLecha,SeniorResearchFellow,CIDOB@solerlecha

Beforethepandemicbrokeout,EuropeanleadershadalreadysetthemselvesthegoalofmakingtheEUmoregeopolitical.In2019UrsulavonderLeyenintroducedherworkprogrammeandcollegeofcommissionersasa“geopoliticalCommission”.Afewmonthslater,theHighRepresentativeforForeignAffairsandSecurityPolicy,JosepBorrell,alsodescribedEurope’sneedto“relearnthelanguageofpower”.In2021vaccinesarepower.

Injustover12monthswehavegonefrommaskdi-plomacytovaccinegeopolitics.Shortagesofbasicper-sonalprotectivematerialduringthefirstmonthsofthepandemicanddependenceontheChinesemarketledtodebatesontheneedtoincreasestrategicautonomy,bringsupplychainscloserandreindustrialiseEurope.ThevaccinehasallowedtheEUtoregainground,po-sitioningitamongtheverysmallgroupofactorswiththecapacityforvaccineinnovation,productionanddistribution.Someofthemembersofthisselectgroup,likeRussia,ChinaandtoalesserextentIndia,havebe-gunageopoliticalracetoconsolidateorextendtheirareasofinfluencethroughcontractsanddonations.TheEUisnotatthatstage.Yet.Itspriorityistoensureinternalcohesionandvaccinationofaveryelderlyandthereforeparticularlyvulnerablepopulation.

Meanwhile,thepandemic’sothergreatgeopoliticaldivide–placeswithandwithoutaccesstovaccines

–iswidening.ThatsomeofthoseleftoutarecloseneighboursoftheEUbringsanadditionalchallenge.Itmaybethatanewsenseisgiventotheoldnotionof“FortressEurope”:ahealthfortress.Toalleviatethisinequality,thusfartheEUhasjoinedglobaldistribu-tivemechanismslikeCOVAX.Butifproductionratescontinuetolagandthedisparitiesinvaccinationlevelscontinuetoworsen,theargumentsfortemporarypat-entwaiverswillgaintractionnotonlyatgloballevelbutalsowithinEuropeansocieties.

Economicandsocialrecovery:whenwilltheimpactofthepost-COVIDfundsbefelt?

MartaAngerri,Consultant

@lamaf75

Economiesrunonconfidence–afactorthepandem-iccurrentlyinhibits.Allmemberstateshaveimposedmeasurestoaddressthehealthcrisisthathaveprevent-edthegrowthrateintheEUinthefirstquarterof2021frompickingupashoped.ChinaandtheUnitedStatesappearbetterplaced,witheconomicstimuluspackag-esassistingtherecovery.

TheEU’sproblemessentiallyliesinthedysfunctionbe-tweenthemeasuresneededtoaddressshort-andlong-termchallenges.Intheshortterm,aprogrammeofdi-rectassistancetocompaniesthatcancontributetotheirsurvivalanddriveeconomicgrowthismorenecessarythanever,butsuchaidisnotbeingdecisivelyawardedinallEUstates.Inthelongterm,theeagerlyawaitedNextGenerationEUfundsmayhavepassedthestum-blingblockoftheGermanConstitutionalCourt,butmanyissuesstillsurroundtheireffectivedeploymentinthebloc’sdifferentcountries.

InSpain,althoughthegovernmenthaschannelledthe€27billioneurosNextGenEUfundsallocatedforthisyearthroughthegeneralstatebudget,distribut-ingthemisprovingtobemuchmorelaboriousthanhoped.Inthebestcasescenario,thevariousministrieswillissuethefirstcallsforassistancebythesummer,meaningeffectiveinvestmentsarelikelytobeginin2022.Thefunds’influenceontheeconomicandsocialrecoverywillthereforebefeltonlyinthemediumandlongterm.Inthemeantime,investmentprojectsshouldbeprioritisedbasedontheirknock-oneffectsandinthissensethecommitmenttohousingrenovationpol-iciesthatarelabour-intensiveanddrivemuchoftheSpanisheconomyseemslogical.Butdirectaidtocom-paniesmustnotbeforgotten,lestwerunoutoftimetosavethemandmaketheeconomicrecoveryevenmorecostly.

Greenacceleration:recoverymeansbuildingamoresustainablemodel

HannahAbdullah,SeniorResearchFellow,CIDOB@hannahabdull

TheEuropeanGreenDeallaunchedinDecember2019placedenvironmentalconcernsattheheartoftheEU’sinternalpolicy,andtheCOVID-19crisishasaccelerat-edthistrend.WhilethepandemicinitiallydelayedthelaunchoftheGreenDealactionplans,theEuropeanCommissionsoonannounceditsintentiontousetheecologicaltransitionasa“compass…torebuildoureconomiesdifferentlyandmakethemmoreresilient”.

2 CIDOBnotesinternacionals250.MAY2021

TheGreenDealwillonlyachieveglobalresultsifitisaccompaniedbyproactiveclimatediplomacythatempowerstheEUtoforgenewalliancesandleadbyexample.

Inrecentmonths,unprecedentedpoliticalwillandthefinancialmightofthefundsapprovedhaveaddedmo-mentumtoEurope’secologicalrecovery.TheRegula-tionontheRecoveryandResilienceFacility,thecen-trepieceofthe€750bnNextGenerationEUstimuluspackage,determinesthatmemberstatesmustallocateatleast37%oftheirnationalrecoveryandresilienceplans(NRRP)toactiononclimateandbiodiversityandthatallinvestmentsmustavoiddoing“significantharm”totheenvironmentalgoalsestablishedbytheEU’snew

taxonomyofsustainable

investment.

ButrebuildingamoresustainableandresilientEuropewillrequiremorethanjustmacroeconomicinnova-tions.Toensurethatlong-termchangeleavesnoonebehind,afairandinclusivetransitionisneededthataddressesthestructuralinjusticesbrutallyexposedbythepandemic.ThelaunchoftheEUClimatePactandtheJustTransitionMechanism(JTM)suggestthattheCommissionisworkingalongtheselines,butbothin-strumentsleaveroomforimprovement.TheJTM’sfo-cusonsupportingregionsthatdependoncarbon-inten-

siveindustries(especiallyinEasternEurope)providesasmallsliceofclimatejus-

ticetohelpensuresolidaritybetweenmemberstates,butitoverlooksthemorecom-plexsocioeconomicimpactsofthetransitiontakingplaceatsub-nationallevel,suchasthoserelatedtohousinganddigitalconnectivity.

ThetransformativepoweroftheCommission’seco-logicalagendawillalsodependonhowitfitswiththeEU’sforeignandsecuritypolicy.Therecentlyproposedcarbonborderadjustmentmechanism(CBAM)isoneexampleofwheretheEU’sclimateambitionswillaffectitsgeopoliticalrelations.Meanwhile,theGreenDealwillonlyachieveglobalresultsifitisaccompaniedbyproactiveclimatediplomacythatempowerstheEUtoforgenewalliancesandleadbyexample.

TheEUtakestheleadoncyberspacegovernance

AndreaGarcíaRodríguez,ResearchFellow,CIDOB

@agarcod

Earlyinthepandemic,cyberattackshitEuropeanhos-pitalsandsupercomputersworkingonthedevelop-mentofavaccineagainstthevirus.InJuly2020

theEU

forthefirsttimeimposedsanctionsonindividualsand

organisations

itheldresponsibleforcyberattacksonEuropeansoil.Toimprovethebloc’scyberresilience,attheendof2020theEUreleasedacybersecuritypack-age,alongwithanewstrategy,thatincludedarevised

NISdirective(NIS2),

anewdirectiveonthe

resilience

ofcriticalentities

andalegislativeproposaltoguaran-

teeaminimumlevelofcybersecurityintheEU.Italsopublishedtheconclusionsoftheriskassessmenton5GinEuropeconductedbymemberstates,whichhadbeendelayedbythepandemic.

However,theEU’sgreatdigitalachievementduringthepandemicwastheDigitalServicesActpackageunveiledinmid-December2020,whichincludedmea-suresaimedatcombattingdisinformation(DemocracyActionPlan),digitalmonopolies(DigitalMarketsAct)andillegalonlinecontent(DigitalServicesAct).

Thisentirelegislativeandcybersecuritypackageproj-ectstheEUbeyonditsborders.InMarch2021,theUSCongressionalResearchService

publishedareport

thatexaminedtheimpactoftheseinitiativesontheUSeconomyandreflectedonnewopportunitiesforcoop-erationwiththeEUinordertojointlyleadondigitalgovernance.

TheEuropeanUnionthusemergesfromthepandemicasaleaderondigitalgovernance,withthepossibilityofextendingitsrulestootherpartsoftheworldand

spearheadingglobaleffortsinthisfield.ThepresidentoftheCommission,UrsulavonderLeyen,warnedatthelastMunichSecurityConferencethattheEUisnotpreparedtoleave“decisions,whichhaveahugeimpactonourdemocracies,tocomputerprogrammeswithoutanyhumansupervisionortotheboardroomsinSiliconValley”.

Morehumanecitiesafterthepandemic

EvaGarciaChueca,SeniorResearchFellow,CIDOB@eva_gchueca

TheCOVID-19crisisiseminentlyurban.AccordingtoUnitedNationsdata,95%ofinfectionsanddeathshaveoccurredincities,strainingthecapacitiesoflocalin-stitutionsandenvironments.Thepandemic’simpactsinthesocial,economic,labour,educationalandpublichealthsphereshavedeepenedpre-existinggapsandurbaninequalitiesthatstillshowedtheeffectsofthe2008crash.

Towhatextentcanthisglobalsituationcontributetoashifttowardsmorehumane,caringcities?WhatrolecantheEuropeanUnionplayinpromotingthischange?Anunprecedentedopportunityliesbeforeus

CIDOBnotesinternacionals250.MAY2021 3

toreshapethecurrenturbanmodelinfavourofgreat-ersocialandenvironmentalresponsibility.Thepoli-cyproposalsareonthetableand

anumberofurban

governmentsarealreadyputtingthemtothetest

:the15-minutecity(Paris),reclaimingurbanspacefromcars(Barcelona,Milan)andpromotingsocialhousing(Vienna,Amsterdam)areamongmanysuchexam-plesinEuropeandbeyond.

NextGenerationEUrecoveryfundscaninjectthefinanceneededtosupportcities’effortstorethink

theirlong-termpoliciesinordertoencouragegreat-ersustainability(environmental,butalsosocioeco-nomicandcultural).Thefinancialassistancewillseekabovealltomaketheecologicalanddigitaltransitionpossible,butalsotoimproveEurope’sso-cialcohesion.Whendefiningtheirrecoveryplans,memberstatesmustnotshirktheneedtoaddressthesocioeconomicinequalitiesthathaveworsenedduringthepandemic.

WiththeadoptionofthenewEuropeanSocialAgen-daatasummitinPortoaroundthecorner(June

ingthespreadofthevirus,stricterchecksmadephys-

icaldistancingmoredifficult,increasingtheriskofcontagion.

TheisolationfeverduringthepandemicwasalsoacatalystfortheBritishdecisiontopermanentlyleavetheDublinsystem,leadingtoahardBrexitinmi-grationtermswhoseconsequencesremainfarfromclear.Forsomeyears,LondonhaddisagreedwiththeEuropeanCommission’splanstodistributeasylumseekersamongthecountriessubjecttotheDublinRegulation,andtheUK’sinterestinthesystemwaslimitedtofacilitatingthereturnofasylumseekerstoItalyandGreece.

AmidthepanictheCommissiondecidedonafasterreturnpolicyattheexternalbordersandasubstantialriseinfundingforoutsourcingmigrationcontrolstoAfricanandMiddleEasterncountries.TheCommis-sion’s

NewPactonMigrationandAsylum

propos-estoacceleratetheinitialreviewofcasesinordertoquicklyrejectthosewithlittlechanceofsuccesssothattheymaybeswiftlydeported.

Thepandemichasgivengovernmentsapretextfor

Asmanyofthesemobilityrestriction

raisingthepressureonmigrants.

policiesactuallyhavelittletodowith

COVID-19,itseemslikelythatsome

willremainafterthepandemic.

2021),thetimeisripetocommittoincludingaso-

cialdimensionintherecoveryplans(atbothlocal

andnationallevel).Thesocialagendamustbemore

Thepandemicnormalisesthefarright

stronglylinkedtothegreenanddigitalagendasand

theimplementationoftheEuropeanPillarofSocial

CarmeColomina,ResearchFellow,CIDOB

Rightsmustbereactivated.Citiescanplayakeyrole

@carmecolomina

inconstructingasocialEuropetoachievejusttransi-

Thepandemichasspedupthenormalisationofthe

tions,butthesizeofthechallengeexceedstheirca-

pabilitiesandrangeofaction.Creatingmorehumane

Europeanfarright.Electoralstrategiesandresults

citiesafterthepandemicispossible,butnotwithout

vary,butingeneraltheemergenceofCOVID-19gave

EUinvolvement.

right-wingpopulismanopportunitytobroadenits

positions,takeadvantageofthemediahubbubofdis-

informationandinsomecasesmonopoliseprotest.

PandemicEuropetightensmigrationrestrictions

TheincreasingheterogeneityofthemapoftheEuro-

peanfarrightisreflectedinitsvariedreactionstothe

EmmanuelComte,SeniorResearchFellow,CIDOB

pandemic.FortheSwedenDemocratsandtheFinns

@EmmanuelComte

Party,thepoliticalnegotiationsoverthehandlingof

Thepandemichasgivengovernmentsapretextfor

COVID-19presentedanopportunitytoberecognised

as“

seriousparliamentary

force[s]”,whileMarineLe

raisingthepressureonmigrants.IntheEuropean

Pen’sdenunciationofMacron’s“statelies”inFrance

Unionthreechangesinimmigrationcontrolhave

andVox’sbelligerentattacksonwhatitdescribes

beennotablesincetheemergenceofCOVID-19.

as“totalitarianabuses”bytheSpanishgovernment

First,restrictionswereputinplacethataffectedmo-

haveallowedthemtohogtheoppositionpublic

spaceandworkawayaterodinginstitutions.InItaly

bilitynotonlyatthebordersoftheSchengenArea

andtheNetherlands,ontheotherhand,arebalanc-

–whichcollapsed–butalsowithinit,asarecord18

ingofforceshastakenplacebetweenthedifferent

ofthe26Schengenstatesreimposedbordercontrols

far-rightgroups.BrothersofItalygainedpopularity,

inMarch2021.Evenwhenfreemovementwasbriefly

whiletheDutchfarright

reorganiseditself

intoGeert

reintroducedinthesummer,passportchecksalone

Wilders’(declining)PartyofFreedomandThierry

meantthecorridorsofmajorEuropeanairportsfilled

Baudet’s(rising)ForumforDemocracyandachieved

withendlessqueuesoftravellers.Farfromprevent-

theirbestcombinedelectoralresults,securingatotal

4 CIDOBnotesinternacionals250.MAY2021

Thepandemichasturneduptheheatintheareaswheretheradicalrightseekspoliticalconfrontation:usvsthem(focussingonrightstomobilityandmigration)andthepeoplevstheelites(duringtheimpositionoflockdownrestrictions).

of29seats.TheAustrianfarright(FP?),theDanishPeople’sPartyandPortugal’sChegahavealsoriseninthepolls.

AsCasMuddeandJakubWondreyswarn,allofthisshowsthatDonaldTrump’selectoraldefeatintheUnitedStatesamidstatideofinfectionswasmoreanexceptionthantherule.

Thepandemichasturneduptheheatintheareaswheretheradicalrightseekspoliticalconfrontation:usvsthem(focussingonrightstomobilityandmigration)andthepeoplevstheelites(duringtheimpositionoflockdownrestrictions).Thehealthcrisishasprovidedanidealbreedinggroundforpolarisation,butasubse-quenteconomicandsocialcrisismayincreasethefearandinequalitythatthefarrightseekstoprofitfromelectorally.

May9th:ThediscussionoftheEU’spoliticalfuturebegins

HéctorSánchezMargalef,

Researcher,CIDOB@sanchezmargalef

TheConferenceontheFu-tureofEurope(CoFoE),whichstartsonMay9th,isadeliberativeexerciselaunchedbytheEuropeaninstitutionsandbasedonpublicsupport.Theinten-

tionisforcitizens’contributionstoplotthebloc’sfu-turedirectionanddecidewhatroleitshouldplayintheworld.Theresultsofthesedeliberationswillbepre-sentedinareporttotheheadsofstateandgovernment,whohavealreadywarnedthattreatyreformwillnotbeacceptedunderanycircumstancesandthattheyareundernoobligationtoimplementanyoftheproposals.

Thequestiontheniswhetherthisisanecessaryexer-ciseforthefutureoftheEuropeanUnion.Theanswerissurelyyes.TheEUneedsstrategicreflectionthatisunconnectedtothevicissitudesofcrisis.Theproblemisthatthepandemicandthepoliticalinterestsofcer-tainstateshaveendedupinfluencingtheconceptionoftheCoFoE.TheConferencewasmeanttotaketwoyears,butCOVID-19hasseenitlimitedtoonetoen-surethatitendsastheFrenchpresidentialelectioncampaignbegins.

Thematicandtemporallimitationsaside,though,citizenswillgetanotheropportunitytoexpresstheirpreferences.ThepandemichasstrengthenedsupportforasocialandemploymentmodelthatprotectsEuro-peans,asthelatestEurobarometersshow.EuropeanswantasocialEuropetobedevelopedandimplement-

ed;almosthalfofthecitizensconsultedbelievethattheEUshouldplayanactiveroleinensuringequalopportunities,accesstothelabourmarket,workingconditionsthatguaranteeadignifiedlifeandaccesstoqualityhealthcare(stillsufferingtheravagesofthepandemic).RespondingtotheseconcernsliesinthehandsoftheEUbutalsooftheConference.

Greaterstrategicautonomypost-pandemic

PolBargués-Pedreny,ResearchFellow,CIDOB@polbargues

Atthestartof2020,whenCOVID-19hadyettotrou-bleEurope,JosepBorrell,HighRepresentativeoftheEUandVice-PresidentoftheEuropeanCommission,

HYPERLIN