國際能源署-2021年第4季度天然氣市場報告（英）-100正式版

GasMarketReportQ4-2021includingGlobalGasSecurityReview2021INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYTheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits30membercountries,8associationcountriesandbeyond.IEAmembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzechRepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesIEAassociationcountries:BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoGermanyGreeceHungaryPleasenotethatthispublicationissubjecttospecificrestrictionsthatlimititsuseanddistribution.Thetermsandconditionsareavailableonlineat/t&c/IrelandItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandThispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.NetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovakRepublicSource:IEA.Allrightsreserved.InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:AbstractGasMarketReportQ4-2021AbstractWinter2021/22openswithrecordhighseasonalgasprices,asthecombinationofastrongrecoveryindemand,extremeweathereventsandunplannedsupplyoutageshaveledtotightermarkets.Suchtensionsareareminderthatsecurityofsupplyremainsamajortopicforgasmarkets,onlyayearafterarecorddropindemandandoversuppliedmarkets.Thesuccessionofmarketeventsoverthepastyearfurtherillustratesthecriticalroleflexibilityplaysinensuringsecurityandcontinuityofsupply.Flexibleliquefiednaturalgastrade–alongsideothermajorcomponentsofthegasflexibilitytoolboxsuchasinterconnectorsandstoragecapacity–hasbeenandremainsinstrumentaltoadjustingtosharpandunexpecteddemandswings(bothupanddown).Deliveringflexibleandyetsecuresupplyislikelytobecomemorecomplexforsystemsintransitionastheyswitchtolow-carbongastoreachnetzeroemissionobjectives.Regulatorsshouldthereforeadoptaprudentandscalableapproachtomarketdesigntoensuresecurityofsupplyinatransitioninggassystem.Thisnewquarterlyreportincludesareviewofgassecurityinlightofrecentsupply-relateddevelopments,andananalysisofshort-termgasmarketevolutionto2022.PAGE|2GlobalGasSecurityReview2021GasMarketReportQ42021GlobalGasSecurityReview2021PAGE|6GlobalGasSecurityReview2021GasMarketReportQ42021MainfindingsThissixthissueoftheGlobalGasSecurityReviewshowsthatsecurityofsupplyremainsacentraltopicforgasmarkets,asthecombinationofrecoveringeconomicactivity,lowerliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)availabilityandasuccessionofsevereweathereventshasputtheglobalgassystemunderstrongpressureandsentmarketpricestonewhighs.Theprospectoffurtherrecoveryhaspromptedthegradualreturnofcontractingactivityandinvestmentdecisionsin2021thatwouldensuresufficientmedium-termsupply,whiletheneedforatransitiontolow-carbongasesopensnewchallengesforlonger-termsecurityofsupply.TheIEAiscloselymonitoringglobalgasmarketdevelopmentsandissuedastatement

inlateSeptemberaspartofitsconstantdialoguewithstakeholdersonsecurityofenergysupply.ColdwinteranddrysummerputimmensepressureonthegassupplysystemLastJanuary’scoldweatherinNortheastAsia–coupledwithreducedLNGavailability–ledtolocalisedfuelshortagesandanunprecedentedspikeinspotLNGprices.ThiswasfollowedinFebruarybywinterstormUrithathitNorthAmerica,withextremelycoldtemperaturesleadingtohigherheatandelectricityneedsandwellfreeze-offshamperingproduction,resultinginrollingpowercutsinseveralUSstatesandMexico.Overthefollowingmonths,severalhydro-richpowermarkets,includingBrazil,CaliforniaandTurkey,facedseveredroughtsthatledtohigherrelianceongas-firedpowergenerationandfurthertightenedthesummergasmarket.GaspricesralliedasmarketfundamentalstightenedonstrongdemandandunexpectedsupplybottlenecksGasyear2021/22openedonOctober1stwithrecord-highspotgaspricesinEuropeandAsiaandlower-than-averagestorageinventorylevelsforthecomingheatingseason.Thetighteningofgasmarketsoverthepastmonthsresultsfromacombinationofrobustdemandgrowthaseconomiesrecoverfrom2020lockdowns,asuccessionofextremeweatherepisodesthathavegeneratedadditionalgasconsumption,andtighter-than-expectedsupplyasaseriesofoutageshamperedgasproductionandexportcapacity.Thissuccessionofeventshighlightstheinterdependencebetweennaturalgasandelectricitysecurityofsupply–alinkthatappearstobestrongerthanever.TheIEA’snewElectricitySecurityEventScalerating,publishedinitslatestElectricityMarketReport,showsthatrecentweathereventstriggeredpoweroutagesinanumberofmarketswhereavailabilityofgassupplywasalsoanissue.TheTexaspowercrisisofFebruarywasassignedthehighestrankingonHighnaturalgaspriceshavealsorippleeffectsonelectricitymarkets,pushingpricesupanddrivingfuelsubstitutioninfavourofcoalandoil,thusalsoimpactinghigherlevelsofemissionsofCO2andlocalpollution.PAGE|7GlobalGasSecurityReview2021GasMarketReportQ42021thescale–thelargestUSgas-producingstateandwherethefuelplaysadominantroleinpowergeneration.decisions(FIDs)werealsodownfromtheir2019recordhigh,withoneNorthAmericanprojectsanctionedin2020,plusQatar’smajorexpansionplanconfirmedinearly2021.Thesenewinvestments,addedtothewaveofFIDstakenbefore2020,shouldthereforeprovesufficienttosatisfyadditionalLNGdemandinthecomingyears.LNGtradehascontinuedtobeastrongsourceofflexibilityagainstthebackdropofdemandvolatility,althoughcapacityoutageswerehighduring2020andhaveremainedsoin2021,contributingtomarkettensionandpricefluctuations.Thetransitiontolow-carbongasesresultsinnewsecurityofsupplychallengesUndergroundgasstoragecapacityplayedacentralroleinprovidingtrans-regionalflexibilityduringtheJanuarycoldsnap,meetingEurope’sadditionalneedswhileenablingarbitrageofLNGcargoestoAsia.ThisepisodealsoemphasisedthelackofstoragecapacityinmajorAsianmarketsandtheirresultingdependenceonimportedflexibility;additionalmeasurestoenhancestoragedevelopmentandmanagementhavebeenannouncedinJapan,KoreaandChinasincethen.Reachinganetzeroemissionsobjectiveby2050impliestheextensivedeploymentoflow-carbongasesinordertodecarbonisethecurrentgassystem.Thisdeploymentmustbesupportedbypoliciesenactedintheshorttomediumtermtoprepareforsuchamassivetransitionforgassystemsandindustry.Inthisregard,policymakersshouldtakeintoconsiderationnewsecurityofsupplychallengesthatarelikelytoemergeinthistransition.LNGcontractingisrecoveringslowlyFuturegassystemswillbemorecomplexanddecentralised,andwillentailbidirectionalnetworks.Keepingharmonisedqualitystandardsislikelytobecomemoredifficultduetothediversityoflow-carbongassupplysourcesandthecurrentabsenceofhydrogenblendingthresholdharmonisationforthetransitionperiod.Thepotentialtodeliverflexibilitycouldbeconstrainedbytheoperationalspecificationsoflow-carbongasproduction.Regulatorsshouldthereforeadoptaprudentandscalablemarketdesignapproachtoensuresecurityofsupplyinatransitioninggassystem.WhileflexibleLNGtradewasakeycontributortoadjustingtothesharpdemanddeclineandrecoveryin2020,LNGcontractingactivityhastendedtoshowahighershareoffixed-destination,long-termdealsthaninpreviousyears.Thiscanbepartiallyattributedtoloweractivityfromportfolioplayers,aswellastoamotivationtolimitriskinanexceptionallyvolatilepriceenvironment.LNGcontractingactivityshrankbyalmost30%year-on-year(y-o-y)in2020(or45%comparedtoits2018peak),whileactivityduring2021todateshowssomepotentialforrecovery.FinalinvestmentPAGE|8GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021Reviewofrecentgassecurity-relatedeventsPAGE|9GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021January2021:ColdspellinNortheastAsiaPAGE|10GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021ThewintercrisisinNortheastAsialedtorecordhighLNGpricesandrepercussionsacrossAsiaInJanuary2021coldwinterweatherinNortheastAsia–coupledwithreducedavailabilityofLNGsupplyandlogisticalconstraintsonLNGshipping–ledtolocalisedfuelshortagesandanunprecedentedspikeinAsianspotLNGprices.ChangeinnaturalgasconsumptionandLNGimportsinselectedAsiancountries,January2021Japan,ChinaandKoreawereequallyexposedtocoldtemperaturesandtighteningLNGmarketfundamentals,butlocalmarketcharacteristicsledtodifferentoutcomesintheworld’sthreebiggestLNGimportingcountries.JapanexperiencedsharpelectricitypricespikesandafewbuyerspaidrecordhighpricesforemergencyLNGsupplies,butpowercutswereavoidedintheend.ChinafacedlocalisedgasshortagesandsawthehighesttruckedLNGpricessincethe2017/18wintergasshortagesinsomepartsofthecountry.Meanwhile,KoreaweatheredtheJanuaryepisodewithoutdisruptionthankstothecountry’samplegas-firedgeneratingcapacityandLNGstocksduringthecoldspell.TheNortheastAsianwinterfreezealsohadrepercussionsbeyondtheimmediateregion,affectingimportersacrossSouthandSoutheastAsiaaswell.Price-sensitivebuyersinIndia,PakistanandBangladeshwereforcedtocuttheirLNGimportsasspotpricesreachedrecordlevels.Meanwhile,someimportersinSoutheastAsiadispatchedreloadedcargoesforthefirsttime,thusprovidinganunexpectedsourceofemergencysupplyforNortheastAsiaamidthecrisis.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2021),ICISLNGEdge;JODI(2021),GasWorldDatabase;CQPGX(2021),NanbinObservation;KoreaEnergyEconomicsInstitute(2021),MonthlyEnergyStatistics;PPAC(2021),GasConsumption.PAGE|11GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021Japan:LocalelectricitymarkettightnessandglobalLNGbottleneckspushpricestorecordlevelsJapanwastheepicentreoftheJanuarygassupplycrunch,ascolderthanaveragetemperaturesboostedelectricityandheatingdemandatatimewhenLNGstockswerelowandtheavailabilityofsurplusgenerationcapacitywaslimited.PowerutilitiesenteredtheheatingseasonwithlowerthanaverageLNGinventoriesandscrambledtoprocureadditionalcargoesfromthespotLNGmarket.LNGimportsjumpedby12%y-o-yand12%month-on-month(m-o-m)inJanuary,butacombinationofunplannedoutagesinAustralia,longershippingdistancesfrommarginalproducersintheUnitedStatesandcongestiononthePanamaCanalpreventedevenmorecargoesfromreachingJapaninatimelymanner.Asmallnumberofdistressedbuyersintheworst-affectedregionsofJapanpaidrecordhighpricesforindividualLNGcargoes,whichcontributedtothesurgeinAsianspotLNGpricebenchmarkstoall-timehighlevelsinJanuary.TheaveragespotLNGimportpriceinJapanreportedbyMETIalsoreachedarecordlevelinJanuary(USD18.5/MBtu).InearlyJanuary,temperaturesinnorthernandwesternJapanwere2-4°Clowerthantheseasonalaverage,andelectricitydemandaccordinglyjumpedby14%y-o-yinthefirsthalfofthemonth.Hydropoweroutputfell(withloadfactorsreportedinthemid-20scomparedto40%year-roundutilisationin2019)andnucleargenerationwasdownbynearly50%y-o-yinJanuary.Onlythreeoftheninerestartedreactors(Genkai3,Sendai1andSendai2)operatedthroughoutthecoldspellandanother(Ohi4)restartedinmid-January.Unexpectedoutagesatanumberofcoal-firedpowerplantsreducedthermalcapacityattheheightofthecrisis.TheMinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry(METI)alsohighlightedtheclosureof10GWofoil-firedbackupcapacityinthe2014-2019periodasacontributingfactortothetightpowermarketconditions.Wholesaleelectricitypricesjumpedtorecordhighlevels(exceedingJPY200/kWh)inmid-Januaryandpromptedcallstoconserveelectricity.Powercutswereavoided,butreservemarginserodedinsomeregionstoaslowas3%duringthedepthsofthecrisis.Intheaftermathoftheunprecedentedelectricityandgaspricespikes,METIlaunchedatwo-monthinvestigationintothecircumstancesleadinguptothedomesticenergymarkettightnessinJanuary.Basedonthepreliminaryfindings,theministryisplanningtoimplementanumberofshort-termmeasurestoshoreupsupplysecurity.TheseincludenewLNGprocurementguidelinesandregularmonitoringofLNGstocksheldbypowerutilities,whichwerenotsystematicallytrackedordisclosedpriortotheJanuarycrisis.PAGE|12GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021JapanesebuyerspayrecordhighpricesforspotLNGinJanuary2021AverageimportpriceofspotLNGinJapan,2015-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:METI(2021),SpotLNGPriceStatistics.PAGE|13GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021China:RecordhighLNGimportsalleviategassupplyshortagesamidthecoldspellInChina,2021startedwithmulti-decadetemperaturelowsinthenorthernpartofthecountryandBeijingrecordedthecoldesttemperaturessince1966duringthesecondweekofJanuary.Theboosttoheatingdemandamidthecoldblastaddedtoalreadystrongindustrialandpowerdemandduetotheongoingeconomicrecovery.ThesetogetherpushedJanuary’sgasdemandgrowthratetomorethan20%y-o-y,itshighestreadingsince2018.mainlyaffectednon-prioritisedsectors,includingindustrialuserswithinterruptiblecontracts.Thegassupplysituationwasexacerbatedbyicyconditionsonmajorroadsandwaterways,whichhinderedtruck-basedLNGdeliveriesandportoperationsinpartsofnorthernChina.Citygasdistributorsalsoreportedlyunderestimatedgasdemandanddidnotcontractenoughadditionalvolumeswithupstreamproducersaheadofthewinter,relyinginsteadonspotmarketprocurementandtruck-basedLNG,whichwasdifficultandexpensivetocomeby.ThepriceofLNGdeliveredbytruckattimesexceededCNY10000/tonne(USD28/MBtu)inthemost-affectedregions,apricelevelnotseensincethe2017/18wintergasshortage.Domesticgasproductionremainedstrong,withoutputduringJanuaryandFebruarycombinedgrowingby11%onthesamemonthsin2020accordingtotheNationalBureauofStatistics.Butthiswasonlysufficienttocoverafractionofthesurgeindemand.Pipelinegasdeliveriesweredownby5%y-o-y(and12%m-o-m)inJanuary,drivenbya12%y-o-y(7%m-o-m)declineinCentralAsianshipmentsduetoacombinationofpeakwinterdemandintheexportingcountriesandtechnicalissueslimitingoutflowsfromtheregion.Therefore,itwaslargelylefttoLNGtofillthesupplygapduringtheJanuarycoldspell;LNGimportsjumpedbyaremarkable38%y-o-yandreachedthehighestmonthlylevelonrecord(atcloseto12bcm).TheshareofLNGinChina’snaturalgasimportmixalsoreachedanall-timehighof73%inJanuary.ThegasshortfallthiswinteronceagainunderlinedtherelativelackofseasonalstorageinChina.TheworkinggascapacityofChina’sundergroundgasstoragefacilitieswasestimatedatbetween14bcmand16bcmattheendof2020,whichislessthan5%oftotalconsumptionandwellbelowthelevelofothermaturegasmarketswithasimilarseasonalprofiletoChina’s.Recognisingtheimportanceoftheissue,theStateCouncilissuedastatementattheheightoftheJanuarycoldspellpromisingtoacceleratethedevelopmentofnaturalgasstoragefacilities.However,eventhisdramaticriseinLNGinflowswasnotenoughtoavoidlocalisedfuelshortagesandgassupplycurtailments,whichPAGE|14GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021ChineseLNGimportsbrokenewmonthlyrecordsinJanuary2021ShareofLNGintotalgasimportsandLNGimportvolumeinChina,2015-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonChinaCustoms(2021),Statistics;NationalBureauofStatistics(2021),MonthlyData.PAGE|15GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021Korea:nodisruptionduringtheJanuary2021winterenergycrisisKoreaweatheredtheJanuarycoldspellwithoutnoticeabledisruptiontoitsnaturalgassupplies.AveragetemperaturesinJanuary2021fellby2°Cfromthepreviousmonthand4°Cfromthepreviousyear,whichboostedheatingdegreedaysby11%m-o-mand25%y-o-y.Theresultingriseinheatingandheating-relatedelectricitydemandhadtobelargelymetwithnaturalgasasnucleargenerationwaslimitedbyregularmaintenanceatfiveofthecountry’s24reactorsduringthecoldsnap,andcoal-firedelectricitygenerationwasconstrainedbythegovernment-mandatedshutdownofseveralcoal-firedplantsbetweenDecemberandFebruarytoreduceairpollution.theJanuarydemandspikehadalreadysubsided,recordhighLNGimportsinFebruarywerelargelyusedtoreplenishstocks.WholesaleelectricityratesremainedstablewithinthenormalhistoricalrangedespitetherecordhighspotLNGpricesinJanuary.ThisispartlythankstoKorea’samplegeneratingcapacity(withreservemarginsstayingcloseto10%evenduringtheJanuarypeak)andpartlyduetothecountry’sgasandpowermarketstructure.KOGAS,theleadingLNGimporter,usesapricingformulawithlimitedpass-throughofsuddenpricespikestolocalutilities,whilewholesaleelectricitymarketsaredominatedbyasinglebuyer,KEPCO.Gasdemandjumpedby17.5%y-o-yinJanuarytothehighestmonthlylevelonrecord,a7%m-o-mincreasefromanalreadystrongDecember.TheJanuaryincreasewasdrivenbypowergeneration(upby13%y-o-y),districtheating(up17%)andthecitygassegment(up23%),whichincludesresidentialandcommercialusersaswellassmallindustriesinKorea.IncreasedgasdemandinJanuarywaslargelymetwiththedrawdownofLNGstocks,whichdroppedbyhalf(or2bcm)fromthepreviousmonthtothelowestlevelinthreeyears.LNGimportsrecordedamuchsmallermonthlyincreaseinJanuary(estimatedat0.2-0.6bcmbyvarioussources),followedbyasharper1bcmm-o-mriseinFebruary,likelyfromdelayeddeliveriesdispatchedduringthecoldspellinJanuary.LNGimportsinJanuaryandFebruarycombinedwereupby8%y-o-y.AsKoreahasintroducedseveralemergencyresponsemeasuresinrecentyearstoenhancegassupplysecurityduringcrises.TheseincludeLNGstockholdingobligationsforKOGAS,demandrestraintmeasures,fuelswitchingcontractsandmandatoryprocurementofalternativefuelsforcogenerationplants.IntheaftermathoftheJanuarycrisis,theKoreanMinistryofTrade,IndustryandEnergy(MOTIE)decidedtofurtherincreasemandatoryLNGstocksfromseventoninedaysoftotaldemand,andexcludeheelvolumesfromthecalculationofLNGstocks(whichisequivalenttoanadditional5%increaseinemergencyreserves).Thehigherstoragerequirement,whichisintendedtoensuregassupplysecurityduringunexpectedcoldspellsandheatwaves,willbephasedinfromOctober2021.PAGE|16GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021ColdsnapinJanuary2021pushedmonthlygasdemandtoall-timehighlevelsinKoreaMonthlynaturalgasconsumptioninKorea,1997-2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:KoreaEnergyEconomicsInstitute(2021),MonthlyEnergyStatistics.PAGE|17GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021EmergingAsia:PricedoutofspotLNGtradeduringthewinterpricespikesThesupplycrunchinNortheastAsiahadbroaderrepercussionsacrossLNGimportingcountriesinSouthandSoutheastAsia.emergencysupplyforNortheastAsia.InJanuary2021bothIndonesiaandThailandcompletedtheirfirst-everLNGre-exports.TheArunterminalinIndonesia,whichwasconvertedfromanexportterminaltoaregasificationplantin2014,sentitsfirstreloadedcargotoChina,whiletheMapTaPhutfacilityinThailandre-exporteditsfirstcargototheTokyoBayareaofJapan.DevelopingLNGreloadinginfrastructureinThailandhasbeenpartofthegovernment’sbroaderambitiontoturnthecountryintoaninternationalLNGtradinghub.Singapore,anestablishedreloadinghubintheregion,alsore-exportedrecordvolumesofLNGbetweenDecemberandMarch;allreloadcargoesfromSingaporeduringthisperiodweredeliveredtoChina.RecordhighspotLNGpricesdenteddemandinprice-sensitivemarketsacrosstheregion.India,PakistanandBangladeshallrecordedsharpyear-on-yeardeclinesinLNGimportsinJanuary(whichweredownby15%,5%and32%,respectively).BuyersineachofthesecountriesleftseveralspotLNGtendersunawardedduetoastronomicalbidpricesduringthewinterpricespikes.Inturn,thiscontributedtogasshortages–andamixofdemanddestructionandfuelswitchingawayfromgas–inbothPakistanandBangladesh.Price-sensitivenaturalgasusersinIndia(especiallyintherefiningandpetrochemicalsectors)reportedlyswitchedfromimportedLNGtoliquidfuels,andmonthlygasburninthepowersectorwasdownby10%inJanuary2021fromtheaverageoftheprevioussixmonthswhilecoal-firedgenerationreboundedsharplyinearly2021.EnhancedreloadingcapabilitiesinSoutheastAsiaareawelcomedevelopmentthatenablesimporterswithnowinterpeakdemandtotakeadvantageofhighspotLNGpricesduringtheseason,whilealsohelpingtoeaselocalisedfuelshortagesattimesofunexpectedcoldspellsinthenorthernpartsofAsia.Meanwhile,SoutheastAsia–wherewinterisalowseasonduetoalackofheatingdemand–emergedasanunexpectedsourceofPAGE|18GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021PricesensitivityinemergingAsiaondisplayduringtheJanuary2021pricespikesLNGimportstoIndia,PakistanandBangladeshandspotLNGpricesinAsia,July2020-June2021IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonICIS(2021),ICISLNGEdge.PAGE|19GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021February2021:WinterstorminNorthAmericaPAGE|20GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021ThedeepfreezeinTexasrevealedthemanyinterdependenciesbetweengasandpowersystems…TheUnitedStateswashitbyoneofthemostseverewinterstormsinitshistorybetween13and17February2021.AsdescribedbytheNationalWeatherService,StormUriwascausedbyanupper-levelpolarvortexdroppingfromtheNorthPoleandlingeringoversoutherncentralCanada,whichallowedcoldarcticairtograduallyspillsouthwardintoTexas(andfurtherdowntonorthernMexico).BasedonhistoricaldatafromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,heatingdegreedaysduringthegasstorageweekending18Februaryreached280–theirhighestlevelsinceDecember1983.1Over4.5millioncustomers(~11millionpeople,or40%ofallcustomers)inTexaswerewithoutpowerandnearly12millionTexansfacedwaterrestrictionsattheheightofthecrisis.Theinsatiabledemanddroveupelectricityandnaturalgaspricestohistoricalhighs.ElectricityspotpriceshittheirmarketcapofUSD9000/MWh.NaturalgaspricesatlocalTexanhubsrosetotripledigits,whiletheOGThubinneighbouringOklahomasoaredtoarecordofUSD1250/MBtuattheheightofthecrisis.TheFebruarycrisisinTexashighlightedthemultipleinterdependenciesthatexistbetweenthepowerandgassupplysystems.Thesteepdropinnaturalgasproductionduetowellheadfreeze-offsresultedinfuelsupplylimitationstopowerplants,whilethestartofrotatingpowercutson15Februaryexacerbatedgassupplyissuesassomecriticalnaturalgasinfrastructurefacedpowercutsaswell.TherotatingpowercutsinTexas,theUSstatewiththemostabundantenergyresources,areastarkreminderthatsecurityofenergysupplycannotbetakenforgranted.Itmustremainatoppriorityforpolicymakersandrequiresaholisticapproach,takingintoaccountthemultitudeofinterdependenciesexistingacrosstheenergysystem.StormUrihaddevastatingimpactsontheSouthCentralregionoftheUnitedStates.InTexasover100fatalitieshavebeenlinkedtothestorm,whileinitialdamageestimatesareintherangeofUSD80-130billionindirectandindirecteconomiclosses.Thestormcausedseveredisruptiontoenergysupplies:theexceptionallycoldweatherdroveupelectricityandnaturalgasdemandatatimewhenfreezingtemperatureshamperedsupplyfromthegassystemandpowerplants.Asthesystemoperator,theElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(ERCOT)introducedrotatingpowercutsbetween15and19February.1AsperthereportingoftheUSEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),agasstorageweekendsonFriday.PAGE|21GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021…andtheneedforaholisticapproachtoenergysecuritytakingintoaccountthecentralroleofthepowersystemIEA.Allrightsreserved.Note:SCADA=supervisorycontrolanddataacquisition;thisisasystemthattransmitsviatelecommunicationnetworkstheinformationanddatanecessaryfortheoperationofoilandgaspipelines.PAGE|22GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021StormUribroughtacoldspelltoTexasnotseenindecades…HeatingdegreedaysinTexasbygasstorageweek(January1981-July2021)IEA.Allrightsreserved.Source:IEAanalysisbasedonNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(2021),HeatingDegreeDays.PAGE|23GGSR2021–ReviewofrecenteventsGasMarketReportQ42021…drivingupelectricityandnaturalgasdemandonhigherspaceheatingrequirementsThecoldspellbroughtbyStormUriresultedinasharpincreaseinelectricityandnaturalgasdemandinTexas,almostentirelydrivenbyhigherspaceheat