化工-行業(yè)周報(bào)：北上廣深執(zhí)行“認(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”俄羅斯對(duì)化肥出口征收關(guān)稅化肥、螢石、鈦白粉、橡膠助劑等價(jià)格上漲

證券研究報(bào)告工證券研究報(bào)告工96工昆股份技金禾實(shí)業(yè)97斯特0136相關(guān)報(bào)告報(bào)——七部門(mén)印發(fā)《石化化工行業(yè)穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)工作方案》，純堿、鈦白粉、橡膠助劑、磷肥等價(jià)格上漲 (20230821-20230827)》北上廣深執(zhí)行“認(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”，俄羅斯對(duì)化肥出口征收關(guān)稅化肥、螢石、鈦白粉、橡膠助劑等價(jià)格上漲 投資要點(diǎn)本周化工與新材料行業(yè)回顧房城鄉(xiāng)建設(shè)部、中國(guó)人民銀行、金融監(jiān)管總局聯(lián)合印發(fā)了《關(guān)于優(yōu)化個(gè)人住房貸款中住房套數(shù)認(rèn)定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的通知》，推動(dòng)落實(shí)購(gòu)買(mǎi)首套房貸款“認(rèn)房不用認(rèn)貸”政策措施。此項(xiàng)政策作為政策工具，納入“一城一策”工具箱，供城市自主選用。截至本周，北上廣深全部官宣執(zhí)行“認(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”城市陸續(xù)落地?！罢J(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”，即居民家庭(包括借款人、配偶及未成年子女)申請(qǐng)貸款購(gòu)買(mǎi)商品住房時(shí)，家庭成員在當(dāng)?shù)孛聼o(wú)成套住房的，不論是否已利用貸款購(gòu)買(mǎi)過(guò)住房，銀行業(yè)金融機(jī)構(gòu)均按首套住房執(zhí)行住房信貸政策。政策發(fā)力刺激下，有望提振房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)信心，建議關(guān)注聚氨酯、值的7%，具體稅率(即每噸盧布的最低稅率)根據(jù)肥料的類(lèi)型(氮肥、鉀肥、磷肥/復(fù)合肥)而有所不同，分別為1100盧布/噸、1800盧布/噸和2100盧布/噸。對(duì)高成本水溶性磷肥磷酸二銨和磷酸一銨免征關(guān)稅。自23.5%。俄羅斯是全球重要的化肥生產(chǎn)國(guó)和出口國(guó)，征收關(guān)稅或抬升全球肥料價(jià)格中樞，建議重點(diǎn)關(guān)注氮肥、磷肥、鉀肥價(jià)格情況。+1.7pcts和+0.7pcts)，制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張力度有所增強(qiáng)，市場(chǎng)需求景氣度繼分別為+0.4pcts和+4.5pcts)，均低于臨界點(diǎn)，新出口訂單環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)，表明國(guó)內(nèi)外市場(chǎng)需求有所改善。(3)主要原材料購(gòu)進(jìn)價(jià)格指數(shù)和出廠價(jià)格指數(shù)分別上升至56.5%和52%(月環(huán)比分別+7.8pcts和+7.0pcts)，制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品銷(xiāo)售S003jijin@S003liumenglanxyzqcomcnS006請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明行業(yè)周報(bào)請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-2-/噸(與上月持平)；純MDI掛牌價(jià)24500元/噸(月環(huán)比+0.8pcts)；MDI價(jià)18200元/噸(月環(huán)比+2.2pcts)。上MDIpcts。NYHub市場(chǎng)價(jià))，26.5%；氯化鉀(60%粉,青海)，18.2%；鐵鋰正極材料，-9.3%；氫氧化鋰(電池級(jí)，四川)，-7.6%；碳酸鋰(工中短期投資策略23Q2主動(dòng)管理型公募基金重倉(cāng)持股中基礎(chǔ)化工重倉(cāng)占比4.85%(季度環(huán)比-1.02pcts，季度同比-1.88pcts)，石油石化重倉(cāng)占比0.58%(季度環(huán)比-0.44pcts，季度同比-0.48pcts)。站在當(dāng)前時(shí)點(diǎn)，化企龍頭在產(chǎn)品盈業(yè)績(jī)測(cè)算來(lái)看，該估值仍具有強(qiáng)安全邊際，化企核心資產(chǎn)配置性?xún)r(jià)比持塑關(guān)鍵力量，萬(wàn)華化學(xué)、華魯恒升、揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工等。政策刺激、需求向好背景下，化工品盈利至暗時(shí)刻已過(guò)，基礎(chǔ)化工品盈利存修復(fù)之動(dòng)力，但考慮到歷經(jīng)兩年景氣周期，中觀維度在建工程正欲本周基礎(chǔ)化工品價(jià)格概況當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)進(jìn)入集中發(fā)運(yùn)階段，經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商提貨積極性較高，復(fù)合肥廠家繼續(xù)請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-3-存較多，近期仍以消化庫(kù)存為主，上調(diào)5.78pcts，氣頭開(kāi)工率75.85%，環(huán)比下降3.72pcts。本周新增停車(chē)減量企業(yè)有：江蘇華昌、寧夏和寧、新疆心連心、新疆晉煤中能、內(nèi)蒙古博增量的企業(yè)有：東北吉林長(zhǎng)山、河南駿馬、山西天澤及山西蘭花，日影銷(xiāo)商提貨積極性較高，且下游開(kāi)工小幅提升，對(duì)原料的采購(gòu)需求有所增價(jià)國(guó)內(nèi)整體開(kāi)工無(wú)明顯波動(dòng)，前期部分檢修小廠暫未復(fù)產(chǎn)，后期市場(chǎng)放貨無(wú)過(guò)貨，續(xù)緊俏，求方面，下游硫酸鉀曼海姆開(kāi)工小幅提升，市場(chǎng)采購(gòu)量增加，復(fù)合肥需求有所增0%粉,青海)價(jià)格為2660元/噸，周環(huán)比上漲18.2%。裝置開(kāi)工暫穩(wěn)，華東及華中地區(qū)本周開(kāi)工小幅回升，西南華南地區(qū)開(kāi)工低迷，酸級(jí)螢石粉貨源稀少，場(chǎng)內(nèi)供應(yīng)緊張程度愈演愈烈，致使近期螢石持貨商提價(jià)惜售意愿強(qiáng)烈，周內(nèi)報(bào)價(jià)接連上調(diào)。需求方面，本周螢石下游走勢(shì)上揚(yáng)，螢石需求轉(zhuǎn)好，場(chǎng)內(nèi)詢(xún)價(jià)氣氛熱烈。本周螢石粉(濕粉,修狀態(tài)靜待九月。原料方面，受?chē)?guó)家政策以及環(huán)保影響，當(dāng)前國(guó)內(nèi)螢石原礦供應(yīng)低迷難改，周內(nèi)報(bào)價(jià)接連上調(diào)。需求方面，下游市場(chǎng)按配額采購(gòu)，備貨情緒回暖，貨源呈現(xiàn)南緊無(wú)壓力，請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-4-力；加之企業(yè)庫(kù)存不多，因此新單報(bào)價(jià)堅(jiān)挺，行情繼續(xù)推高。需求方面，本周半鋼胎開(kāi)工小幅提升，全鋼胎開(kāi)工下滑。本周防老劑部暫停，國(guó)內(nèi)其他區(qū)域主流礦企正常開(kāi)采為主，開(kāi)采僅維系原有訂單發(fā)貨，部分礦企庫(kù)存處于低位，市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)逐漸緊張。需求方面，本周下游磷肥價(jià)格持續(xù)高走，市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)趨緊，廠家拿貨情緒高漲，對(duì)礦石需求持續(xù)旺盛。本周磷礦石(30%,貴州)價(jià)格為900元/噸，周環(huán)比上漲供應(yīng)方面，華中地區(qū)部分廠家繼續(xù)釋放產(chǎn)能，日產(chǎn)量增加，甘肅甕福磷停運(yùn)階段，經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商提貨積極性較高，主產(chǎn)區(qū)大廠開(kāi)工多保持在中等偏高負(fù)時(shí)停車(chē)檢修，復(fù)產(chǎn)時(shí)間待定。本周二銨行業(yè)周度開(kāi)工68.01%，環(huán)比下主流地區(qū)華北，華東等地剛需采購(gòu)。市場(chǎng)貨源供應(yīng)緊張，新單成交多以小單為主。本周磷酸一銨(55%粉,江蘇)和磷酸二銨(64%,長(zhǎng)三角)價(jià)格分企業(yè)開(kāi)工普遍正常，供應(yīng)端延續(xù)增量?；旧细魃a(chǎn)企業(yè)九月的訂單都市場(chǎng)局部報(bào)盤(pán)延續(xù)向上。需求方面，本周整體國(guó)內(nèi)需求尚佳，出口情況際需求還未進(jìn)入到明顯的增量過(guò)程中。本周鈦白粉(金紅石型,華東)、氯14200元/噸。氯化法鈦白粉-金紅石礦價(jià)差和金紅石型鈦白粉-鈦精礦價(jià)重點(diǎn)公司：萬(wàn)華化學(xué)、華魯恒升、揚(yáng)農(nóng)化工、中國(guó)巨石、桐昆股份、華峰化學(xué)、恒力石化、衛(wèi)星化學(xué)、金禾實(shí)業(yè)、新和成、國(guó)瓷材料、東請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-5-科技、昊華科技、榮盛石化、東方盛虹、福斯特、天賜材料、新宙風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：化工產(chǎn)品需求不達(dá)預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，國(guó)際油價(jià)大幅下跌的風(fēng)實(shí)不力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 錄 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-6- 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-7- 請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-8- -9-行業(yè)周報(bào)表1、重點(diǎn)跟蹤化工產(chǎn)品價(jià)格與價(jià)差大類(lèi)產(chǎn)品單單位更新日期本周上周周漲幅上月同期月漲幅上季度同期季度漲幅年初年內(nèi)漲幅指數(shù)中國(guó)化工品價(jià)格指數(shù)中國(guó)化工品價(jià)格指數(shù)CCPI-人民幣對(duì)美元匯率(中間價(jià)人民幣對(duì)美元匯率(中間價(jià))-人民幣對(duì)歐元匯率(中間價(jià))---美元指數(shù)SS&P500-黃黃金現(xiàn)貨價(jià)美元/盎司CRBCRB商品價(jià)格指數(shù)-貨貨代運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)CFFI:中國(guó)-歐洲-貨代運(yùn)價(jià)指數(shù)CFFI:中國(guó)-北美-2023/09/014846479546274.7%429112.9%47821.3%2023/09/017.17887.18837.14180.5%7.11150.9%6.89124.2%2023/09/017.88157.85100.4%7.85630.3%7.6697.6692103.562.8%7.25358.7%2023/09/01103.63104.19-0.5%102.001.6%103.91-0.3%2023/09/014507.664405.712.3%4478.030.7%4298.864.9%3895.0815.7%2023/09/011942.301915.501.4%1942.450.0%1960.30-0.9%1852.204.9%2023/09/01552.84550.780.4%557.83-0.9%545.871.3%554.33-0.3%2023/09/01233523350.0%2533-7.8%28183243-28.0%2023/09/01312631260.0%31260.0%30821.4%4101-23.8%WTI期貨(主連合約)Brent期貨(主連合約)WTI期貨(次月合約)Brent期貨(次月合約)WTI期貨(第12月合約)Brent期貨(第12月合約)美元/桶2023/09/0183.6379.055.8%81.552.6%71.2917.3%73.6713.5%美元美元/桶2023/09/0186.8683.364.2%85.142.0%75.9614.3%78.6910.4%美元/桶2023/09/0182.9678.665.5%81.082.3%71.4473.9212.2%美元美元/桶2023/09/0186.8382.924.7%84.692.5%75.8414.5%78.8210.2%美元/桶2023/09/0177.4074.983.2%76.381.3%68.1813.5%72.616.6%美元美元/桶2023/09/0184.3781.104.0%82.811.9%73.8614.2%77.958.2%WTI現(xiàn)貨Brent現(xiàn)貨美元/桶2023/09/0183.6379.74.9%81.552.6%71.2917.3%73.6713.5%美元美元/桶2023/09/0187.4183.9254.2%85.532.2%75.2677.4512.9%原油Dubai現(xiàn)貨Cinta現(xiàn)貨美國(guó)原油鉆井?dāng)?shù)美國(guó)商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存Brent-WTI期貨主連合約價(jià)差WTI主連合約-次月合約Brent主連合約-次月合約WTI主連合約-第12月合約Brent主連合約-第12月合約三地原油簡(jiǎn)單10天平移均價(jià)美元/桶2023/09/0187.1585.192.3%83.923.8%75.914.8%73.9917.8%美元美元/桶2023/09/0182.9480.493.0%79.853.9%72.5414.3%73.6912.6%口2023/09/015125120.0%525-2.5%556-7.9%618千千桶2023/09/01422944433528-2.4%439771-3.8%459205-7.9%4206460.5%美元/桶2023/09/013.234.311%3.594.67-30.8%5.02-35.7%美元美元/桶美元/桶2023/09/010.670.3971.8%0.4742.6%0.12--0.25-2023/09/010.030.44-93.2%0.45-93.3%-75.0%-美元美元/桶2023/09/016.234.075.1720.5%3.11100.3%1.06487.7%美元/桶2023/09/012.492.2610.3%2.336.6%2.1018.5%0.74235.9%美元美元/桶2023/09/0184.3784.86-0.6%81.563.4%73.4015.0%78.207.9%中國(guó)92#汽油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)中國(guó)0#柴油(鎮(zhèn)海煉化)元/噸2023/09/01991199110.0%95983.3%91278.6%94664.7%元元/噸2023/09/01830083000.0%80153.6%75859.4%7895美國(guó)87#汽油美國(guó)柴油(紐約)美分/加侖2023/09/01276287-4.0%278-0.8%25010.5%24313.5%美分美分/加侖2023/09/013113173080.9%24029.8%316煉油歐洲ARA柴油(CIF)亞洲柴油(新加坡)美元/噸2023/09/01899921-2.4%91169529.2%8881.2%美元美元/桶2023/09/015.2%9226.8%3.3%92#汽油新加坡FOB含硫0.05%柴油新加坡FOB美元/桶2023/09/010203957.5%9013.6%8618.7%美元美元/桶2023/09/01-0.6%9225.2%077.2%航空煤油新加坡FOB新加坡石腦油FOB美元/桶2023/09/01-0.4%5.0%9128.6%097.5%美元美元/桶2023/09/0171.1170.650.7%69.751.9%60.1118.3%65.538.5%日本石腦油CFR美元/噸2023/09/016666600.9%6384.4%56817.3%6305.7%請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的信息披露和重要聲明-10-行業(yè)周報(bào)丁烷(華東冷凍CFR)元/噸混調(diào)高硫180CST(華東)重交瀝青(華南)丙丁烷(華東冷凍CFR)元/噸混調(diào)高硫180CST(華東)重交瀝青(華南)丙烷(華東冷凍CFR)美元/噸正丁烷(山東)120#溶劑油(華東)元/噸58#半煉石蠟(華南)元/噸元/噸美元/噸美元/噸美元/噸美元/噸美元/噸美元/桶美元/噸基礎(chǔ)油(150SN,東北)元/噸元/噸美元/噸國(guó)內(nèi)主營(yíng)汽油出廠價(jià)-原油價(jià)差國(guó)內(nèi)主營(yíng)柴油出廠價(jià)-原油價(jià)差美元/噸國(guó)內(nèi)主營(yíng)成品油價(jià)-原油價(jià)差國(guó)際汽油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-原油價(jià)差美元/噸國(guó)際柴油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-原油價(jià)差國(guó)際成品油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-WTI原油價(jià)差美元/噸國(guó)際成品油市場(chǎng)價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差新加坡FOB汽油價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差美元/噸新加坡FOB柴油價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差新加坡FOB航空煤油價(jià)-Brent原油價(jià)差美元/桶美灣WTI321價(jià)差美灣Brent321價(jià)差美元/桶亞洲Minas321價(jià)差美元/桶中東Dubai321價(jià)差%中國(guó)瀝青開(kāi)工率美分/加侖美國(guó)LPG液化氣(華東)元/液化氣(華東)元/噸元/噸改性瀝青(華南改性瀝青(華南)美美國(guó)煉廠開(kāi)工率%2023/09/0169674.2%73-5.6%6015.3%73-4.7%2023/09/0156005750-2.6%53504.7%47005630-0.5%22023/09/012023/09/0166661672626276305.4%636346244.3%49949948932.5%616126278.0%6.7%7.7%37.4%7.2%22023/09/012023/09/01507550758500536853688600-5.5%44528850044086900024.2%4489492003.7%0.0%-5.6%-7.6%2023/09/01805080500.0%8250-2.4%715012.6%725011.0%2023/09/0149505050-2.0%5150-3.9%480056302023/09/019050895087004.0%87004.0%85006.5%2023/09/01390539050.0%39050.0%37304.7%395522023/09/012023/09/0144950230.0344950255.120.0%44950210.650.0%44800227.4450755075273.81-2.5%-9.8%9.2%22023/09/012023/09/01133.81133.81115.38159.02159.02128.431117.23105.25138.47138.47113.86-3.4%178.45178.45137.92-25.0%9.6%1.3%2023/09/01284.06349.35304.19-6.6%276.552.7%234.3721.2%2023/09/01280.15323.09284.61148.0589.2%355.161%2023/09/01184.76217.40192.21-3.9%147.3125.4%199.62-7.4%2023/09/01172.16200.59178.21-3.4%129.0933.4%180.04-4.4%2023/09/01174.70209.35130.1134.3%157.7810.7%105.812023/09/01169.35203.51187.24-9.6%86.0196.9%175.48-3.5%2023/09/01235.70265.44206.1114.4%119.9296.5%235.030.3%2023/09/0140.6240.620.0%35.0615.8%28.0444.8%30.5832.8%22023/09/012023/09/01336.3923.85336.3923.850.0%331.0216.9217.3%24.0824.0815.1025.9425.9415.8340.3%0.0%41.0%57.9%50.6%2023/09/0119.0920.86-8.5%14.5613.4541.9%18.642.4%2023/09/0161.4856.099.6%55.5110.8%44.1039.4%38.7658.6%2023/09/0193.3094.5092.700.6%95.80-2.6%79.6017.2%天然美國(guó)HenryHub期貨(主連合約)美元/天然英國(guó)NBP現(xiàn)貨(遠(yuǎn)期合約)便便士/Therm美國(guó)HenryHub現(xiàn)貨美元/MMBtu美國(guó)美國(guó)N.Y.Hub現(xiàn)貨美元/MMBtu2023/09/012.772.529.9%2.577.9%2.3517.7%3.72-25.6%2023/09/0182820.0%76.57.2%6722.4%50-45.3%2023/09/012.572.426.2%2.483.6%2.122.4%3.77-31.8%2023/09/011.451.051.1822.9%1.4013.5%2.586-43.9%2023/09/0110.3911.649.68.2%8.1627.3%17.39-40.3%氣美元美元/MMBtuGPL現(xiàn)貨TTF現(xiàn)貨歐元TTF現(xiàn)貨TTF期貨(次月合約)歐元?dú)W元/兆瓦時(shí)美元/MMBtu中國(guó)中國(guó)LNG現(xiàn)貨(華北)元/噸美美國(guó)天然氣庫(kù)存十億立方英尺2023/09/01 22.79 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