固定收益深度報告：防風(fēng)化債穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)城投債一二級市場有哪些新變化

內(nèi)容目錄一、政治局會議后，各省如何落實(shí)化債工作？ 31、爭取建制縣市試點(diǎn)、債務(wù)重組置換、資產(chǎn)盤活、平臺整合與轉(zhuǎn)型仍是重要化債方式 32、化解存量的同時嚴(yán)控新增隱性債務(wù) 53、哪些區(qū)域有望獲得特殊再融資債額度？ 5二、化債工作逐步落實(shí)，城投債一二級量價指標(biāo)明顯改善 81、一級市場：城投債發(fā)行熱度提升，凈融資回暖 82、二級市場：交易活躍度提升，成交收益率下行，關(guān)注云南、河南、山東等地短久期債券投資價值 12風(fēng)險提示 17圖表目錄圖表1：政治局會議至今各省提到各類化債措施次數(shù) 3圖表2：政治局會議提出“一攬子化債”后各省落實(shí)情況 4圖表3：各地“嚴(yán)控新增債務(wù)”相關(guān)表述 5圖表4：各省存量債券估值分布、加權(quán)平均估值、年到期壓力、今明兩年城投債付息與廣義債務(wù)率 6圖表5：特殊再融資債額度三種假設(shè)下對各省債務(wù)覆蓋情況 7圖表6：一些省份可能將較大額度特殊再融資債向省內(nèi)高風(fēng)險區(qū)域傾斜 7圖表7：特殊再融資債額度不同假設(shè)下對各地市、園區(qū)債務(wù)覆蓋情況 8圖表8：各省城投債認(rèn)購倍數(shù)變化 9圖表9：8月認(rèn)購倍數(shù)城投 9圖表10：各省城投債凈融資變化 10圖表11：各省城投債加權(quán)平均票面利率變化 11圖表12：各省城投債投標(biāo)利率上限-票面利率變化 12圖表13：各省分行政級別城投債成交規(guī)模 13圖表14：各省城投債換手率變化 14圖表15：各省城投債高估值成交占比變化 15圖表16：各省城投債成交收益率變化 16圖表17：各省城投債1Y以內(nèi)信用利差變化（單位：BP） 17圖表18：近期公告擬提前兌付的城投債 17一、政治局會議后，各省如何落實(shí)化債工作？12012544圖表1：政治局會議至今各省提到各類化債措施次數(shù)（次） 債務(wù)重組置換 資產(chǎn)盤活 資產(chǎn)注入 化債基金 平臺整合 債務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)化 平臺轉(zhuǎn)型 爭取建制縣市試 湖 安 貴 云 蘇 南 徽 州 南

江 廣 浙 西 西 江

陜 遼 重 西 寧 慶

內(nèi)河河海甘福蒙南北南肅建古來源：政府官網(wǎng)，DM，（注：債務(wù)重組置換包括銀行貸款接續(xù)其他有息負(fù)債、延長債務(wù)期限、對接金融機(jī)構(gòu)、降息等表述）823AMC50（續(xù)發(fā)82076省份日期省份日期地市區(qū)縣化債措施歸類江蘇8/31連云港市灌云縣通過壓減一般性公共支出、盤活存量資金資產(chǎn)等方式提前籌措資金，確保債務(wù)風(fēng)險總體可控。資產(chǎn)盤活8/30南通市通州區(qū)扎實(shí)推動融資平臺公司壓降和市場化轉(zhuǎn)型。平臺轉(zhuǎn)型8/30無錫市濱湖區(qū)做大綜合財力的同時更大力度盤活資產(chǎn)資源用于化債隱性債務(wù)合規(guī)轉(zhuǎn)化加強(qiáng)與金融機(jī)構(gòu)溝通協(xié)調(diào)置換8/29南通市海門區(qū)加大非標(biāo)類、高成本債務(wù)置換力度，著力推進(jìn)園區(qū)國企2A+及加快培育3A級信用等級國有企業(yè)，著力優(yōu)化融資結(jié)構(gòu)、降低融資成本。加快平臺公司轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展。轉(zhuǎn)型8/21泰州市海陵區(qū)積極申報隱性債務(wù)風(fēng)險化解試點(diǎn)。加強(qiáng)融資平臺清理整合。整合8/19淮安市淮陰區(qū)積極清退置換存量高成本債務(wù)，加快融資平臺整合壓減和市場化轉(zhuǎn)型。轉(zhuǎn)型8/18鹽城市-全面整合現(xiàn)有平臺加快置換存量非標(biāo)。置換7/26--推動融資平臺公司整合撤并和市場化轉(zhuǎn)型，落實(shí)擴(kuò)大建制縣區(qū)隱性債務(wù)化解試點(diǎn)工作。平臺整合、債務(wù)置換云南9/4紅河州-州政府同債權(quán)銀行談判爭取債務(wù)延期、置換和重組。展期置換8/30臨滄市-積極向上爭取建制縣試點(diǎn)化債政策支持，逐步置換壓減高息債務(wù)。債務(wù)置換湖南8/30常德市桃源縣4降息量高息債務(wù)降息方案。定期組織銀企召開降息展期對接協(xié)調(diào)。債務(wù)置換8/22益陽市-推動平臺公司關(guān)停并轉(zhuǎn)，剝離平臺公司政府融資職能。平臺整合8/2懷化市-盤活加速。資產(chǎn)盤活7/31湘潭市-通過、結(jié)構(gòu)性去杠桿、優(yōu)化資產(chǎn)配置等舉措，2023年力爭實(shí)現(xiàn)“中長期銀行資金占債務(wù)比重達(dá)到90，利率降到4”的目標(biāo)。金融機(jī)構(gòu)支持7/28衡陽市-通過優(yōu)化企業(yè)短中長期債務(wù)比例，延長債務(wù)期限等方式來緩釋債務(wù)風(fēng)險；要求監(jiān)管企業(yè)融資成本嚴(yán)格控制在規(guī)定范圍內(nèi)。展期置換天津8/10--積極加強(qiáng)與金融機(jī)構(gòu)協(xié)調(diào)溝通，對高息債務(wù)開展“削峰”管理，依法合規(guī)做好債務(wù)緩釋，優(yōu)化期限結(jié)構(gòu)、降低利息負(fù)擔(dān)。展期置換貴州8/4--推進(jìn)國有投融資平臺公司實(shí)體化市場化轉(zhuǎn)型，推動國有企業(yè)聚焦主責(zé)主業(yè)進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略性重組和專業(yè)化整合。平臺整合、平臺轉(zhuǎn)型7/24--債券置換、資產(chǎn)證券化量非經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)。債務(wù)置換、資產(chǎn)盤活廣西8/4南寧市-積極推動將符合條件存量項(xiàng)目債務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)化為企業(yè)經(jīng)營性債務(wù)有序推動融資平臺公司市場化轉(zhuǎn)型。轉(zhuǎn)型8/2柳州市-通過無償劃撥、資本注入等方式劃入國有企業(yè)，增強(qiáng)國有企業(yè)盈利能力、融資造血能力，助推我市國有企業(yè)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展。資產(chǎn)注入山東8/30濰坊市壽光市全力爭取建制縣債務(wù)置換試點(diǎn)。利用好國家政策契機(jī)，優(yōu)化政府債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)，加強(qiáng)政策對接，切實(shí)防范系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險。債務(wù)置換8/30濟(jì)南市-財金集團(tuán)與保險資金1:1資產(chǎn)管理公司結(jié)合，成立7:3的平層債務(wù)緩解基金。化債基金8/18青島市-青島市國資委成立青島東鼎產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展集團(tuán)有限公司，東鼎產(chǎn)業(yè)集團(tuán)將成為青島市最大的政府債務(wù)平滑紓困平臺，為青島市各區(qū)政府債務(wù)提供資金流動性和融資支持。紓困平臺8/4濰坊市-山東省政府將通過兩只省級穩(wěn)定化險基金、專項(xiàng)債傾斜、省市國有企業(yè)合作等舉措，實(shí)現(xiàn)“以長換短、以新?lián)Q舊、以低換高”?；瘋鹬貞c8/23--有力協(xié)調(diào)幫扶重點(diǎn)困難企業(yè)續(xù)貸增貸，大型重點(diǎn)問題企業(yè)債務(wù)風(fēng)險全部管控到位，全市高風(fēng)險銀行實(shí)現(xiàn)“清零”。金融機(jī)構(gòu)支持陜西8/28延安市-加快拖欠賬款償還進(jìn)度，全力防范化解債務(wù)風(fēng)險。清理拖欠款8/24西安市-5020區(qū)域穩(wěn)定發(fā)展基金國有一級平臺公司到期債務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)換（續(xù)發(fā)）提供短期流動性支持?；瘋?/22渭南市-整合升級合陽、潼關(guān)、大荔、富平、蒲城等縣級平臺公司。平臺整合甘肅7/26天水市-積極對接金融機(jī)構(gòu)和商業(yè)銀行全力做好債務(wù)展期。展期置換浙江8/10杭州市通過盤活存量資產(chǎn)、做強(qiáng)經(jīng)營性業(yè)務(wù)等方式，助推融資平臺公司市場化轉(zhuǎn)型，有效防范化解地方政府性債務(wù)風(fēng)險。置換四川8/3--支持政府融資平臺依法依規(guī)推進(jìn)市場化轉(zhuǎn)型，打造競爭力強(qiáng)的地方投資運(yùn)營主體。鼓勵按市場化方式設(shè)立城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展基金。平臺轉(zhuǎn)型7/24成都市-要持續(xù)強(qiáng)化風(fēng)險防控，加強(qiáng)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率剛性約束，有序推進(jìn)債務(wù)置換，嚴(yán)控重大債務(wù)風(fēng)險，加快推動非主責(zé)主業(yè)大宗貿(mào)易的清理退出。債務(wù)置換內(nèi)蒙古8/10--積極通過找礦、土地指標(biāo)交易等方式增資增收，積極穩(wěn)妥、有力有序化解存量債務(wù)。資產(chǎn)盤活遼寧8/24沈陽市-積極爭取國家新一輪建制縣隱性債務(wù)化解試點(diǎn)。債務(wù)置換8/14大連市-強(qiáng)化與國開行等銀行溝通協(xié)調(diào)，采取展期置換等方式極大緩釋市縣財政支出壓力。展期置換江西8/29南昌市-加快盤活存量資產(chǎn)、回籠資金閑置資產(chǎn)。資產(chǎn)盤活8/10--積極統(tǒng)籌協(xié)調(diào)金融支持地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險化解。金融機(jī)構(gòu)支持8/2萍鄉(xiāng)市-優(yōu)化整合相關(guān)資金，設(shè)立債券風(fēng)險緩釋基金，防范市縣城投債務(wù)風(fēng)險?；瘋鸷幽?/28鄭州市-44881省管企業(yè)鄭煤集團(tuán)，形成了“8+1+8”差異化發(fā)展格局。平臺整合河北8/30-著力促改革，加快構(gòu)建現(xiàn)代企業(yè)制度，持續(xù)推進(jìn)戰(zhàn)略性重組、專業(yè)化整合。平臺整合海南8/18?？谑?國開行總行目前正在積極研究相應(yīng)化債產(chǎn)品，后續(xù)將利用相關(guān)政策及金融產(chǎn)品，支持?？谑型咨苹獯媪空詡鶆?wù)。債務(wù)置換福建7/25--指導(dǎo)有關(guān)地區(qū)做好隱性債務(wù)風(fēng)險化解試點(diǎn)申報和評審工作，積極爭取財政部化債額度支持。債務(wù)置換安徽8/30淮南市-積極爭取司。支持推動市建發(fā)、產(chǎn)發(fā)、交控集團(tuán)等做實(shí)做優(yōu)做強(qiáng)、分類轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展。債務(wù)置換、資產(chǎn)盤活、平臺轉(zhuǎn)型8/8銅陵市-推動市屬、縣區(qū)屬國有企業(yè)整合、重組，優(yōu)化市國控集團(tuán)，助力文投公司向文旅產(chǎn)業(yè)綜合投資運(yùn)營商轉(zhuǎn)型等，做大做強(qiáng)國有投融資平臺。平臺整合來源：政府官網(wǎng)，DM，2、化解存量的同時嚴(yán)控新增隱性債務(wù)828圖表3：各地“嚴(yán)控新增債務(wù)”相關(guān)表述日期省份地市區(qū)縣內(nèi)容2023/9/5湖北孝感市-規(guī)范政府融資舉債行為，打破政府兜底預(yù)期，加大違法違規(guī)舉債查處力度。涉及增加財政支出的重大政策和實(shí)施重大政府投資項(xiàng)目前，進(jìn)行財政承受能力評估。2023/8/23安徽阜陽市-對于采取政府和社會資本合作（PPP）模式實(shí)施的項(xiàng)目，應(yīng)當(dāng)符合國家及省、市相關(guān)規(guī)定，不得新增政府隱性債務(wù)。2023/8/22湖南益陽市-嚴(yán)控新增隱性債務(wù)，不亂鋪攤子、亂上項(xiàng)目，不高額負(fù)債搞建設(shè)，嚴(yán)格落實(shí)政府舉債終身問責(zé)和債務(wù)問題倒查機(jī)制。2023/8/11重慶--完善投資管理，做細(xì)投資備案、風(fēng)險、過程和績效管理。2023/8/10天津--嚴(yán)格政府投資項(xiàng)目立項(xiàng)審批，資金未落實(shí)的一律不予立項(xiàng)，嚴(yán)厲整治項(xiàng)目超概算、超工期、超標(biāo)準(zhǔn)現(xiàn)象。2023/8/10內(nèi)蒙古--要堅持有多大財力辦多大事，決不允許寅吃卯糧、再增新的債務(wù)。2023/8/8云南--嚴(yán)控高風(fēng)險地區(qū)新增債務(wù)規(guī)模，防止新增隱性債務(wù)風(fēng)險；妥善防范城投債風(fēng)險，堅決守住不發(fā)生區(qū)域性、系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險底線。2023/7/28山東濰坊市濰城區(qū)規(guī)范舉債審批程序，科學(xué)確定投資規(guī)模，有效控制融資成本，堅決打好債務(wù)風(fēng)險管控保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)。來源：政府官網(wǎng)，DM，3、哪些區(qū)域有望獲得特殊再融資債額度？ECDGBF1000A圖表4：各省存量債券估值分布、加權(quán)平均估值、今年到期壓力、今明兩年城投債付息與廣義債務(wù)率省份各估值區(qū)間存量債規(guī)模加權(quán)平均估值今年到期壓力今明兩年城投債付息廣義債務(wù)率[2,3)[3,4)[4,5)[5,6)≥6到期回售合計青海117.1011.7418.000.0018.0014.70204.03%貴州199.15316.2973.7197.261,813.729.5894.94120.18215.12138.38390.61%云南26.0073.9052.60433.181,186.047.72536.30112.09648.3956.22454.03%廣西462.83699.88286.88214.801,049.456.21236.10231.40467.50153.61399.16%寧夏51.3013.0020.0022.40106.905.7915.7033.8049.5011.90185.10%遼寧20.0038.5016.2093.7985.245.5122.804.0026.8015.70235.32%黑龍江11.0045.7072.5053.05119.525.3519.006.0025.0024.53187.80%吉林160.00231.80235.90214.44284.104.94137.5067.00204.5062.64333.49%天津1,119.081,015.65360.45609.401,017.124.691,275.36165.651,441.0093.68744.24%山東3,335.974,613.591,886.941,258.682,458.534.491,149.63752.511,902.14 626.21362.55%重慶1,382.272,096.631,331.52684.591,427.324.48346.41342.61689.02 350.77489.05%陜西814.581,070.10646.03411.20544.554.42328.53187.85516.38162.90331.08%甘肅85.00251.00123.8054.6056.894.1453.1037.0090.1017.84345.11%四川3,123.513,351.421,818.30730.971,435.644.07508.75533.371,042.12 510.41368.11%湖南2,165.533,017.381,708.00739.49802.744.04561.94494.491,056.43 342.58372.85%河南1,436.152,318.951,483.67667.04292.213.91459.82301.80761.62252.78316.63%河北774.60674.10267.2092.20209.843.73127.42112.40239.8285.57270.75%山西500.42565.50170.98114.10115.753.73100.6073.00173.6066.00152.78%江西2,309.872,355.621,055.47532.44423.953.71543.35281.83825.18245.46366.64%湖北2,314.023,154.831,172.14453.01234.863.58523.08335.06858.14 292.32384.07%內(nèi)蒙古64.4020.505.0010.007.353.445.500.005.507.51181.15%新疆623.90642.13233.1227.7972.393.4083.70103.62187.3267.96243.17%西藏42.47201.489.003.367.4812.0019.4812.4947.68%安徽2,329.932,565.59677.70170.3796.953.34343.69166.86510.55218.49304.04%海南44.99102.002.003.240.000.000.007.10184.26%浙江7,930.1310,984.251,726.8566.2237.803.191,412.701,043.542,456.24 795.36397.76%江蘇15,184.4912,261.502,184.00819.12466.323.183,092.511,284.234,376.751,038.94443.50%福建2,423.662,173.87238.7023.0417.403.04342.55131.00473.55179.56348.53%北京1,701.74916.3233.4023.002.85321.66131.90453.56103.24255.49%廣東3,674.951,874.69151.802.82610.60147.70758.30187.12222.43%上海1,879.95646.782.79153.9296.00249.9285.65120.77%來源：，（注：時間截至8月31日）80010007ABF1500EDF6995億元時，各省年內(nèi)到期債券均可被完全覆蓋，或?qū)⒂行Ь忈尪唐趥鶆?wù)風(fēng)險。圖表5：特殊再融資債額度三種假設(shè)下對各省債務(wù)覆蓋情況假設(shè)省份高收益?zhèn)囝~今明兩年城投債付息今年到期回售800億元省份A1.474.911.55省份B3.412.740.93省份C0.6714.231.23省份D0.798.540.56省份E0.445.783.72省份F1.002.340.76省份G0.562.281.161000億元省份A1.846.141.94省份B4.263.421.17省份C0.8417.791.54省份D0.9810.670.69省份E0.557.234.65省份F1.252.920.95省份G0.702.851.451500億元省份A2.759.212.90省份B6.395.131.75省份C1.2626.682.31省份D1.4716.011.04省份E0.8310.846.97省份F1.874.381.42省份G1.054.282.18來源：，（注：估值不低于6的債券為高收益?zhèn)〤DCFBHCB各估值區(qū)間存量債規(guī)模加權(quán)平均估今年到期壓力今明兩年城投區(qū)域各估值區(qū)間存量債規(guī)模加權(quán)平均估今年到期壓力今明兩年城投區(qū)域[2,3)[3,4) [4,5) [5,6)≥6值（%）到期回售合計債付息園區(qū)A5.50197.00143.6086.005.3167.0016.1083.10 21.14園區(qū)B5.3041.20128.108.7440.6513.0053.6511.76園區(qū)C55.00337.00332.3038.8520.004.06135.0030.00165.00 21.78地市A119.80211.90250.48112.465.1966.3043.26109.56 25.45地市B391.04601.02169.7139.5014.203.43147.32105.15252.4743.75地市C3.5020.00753.389.81141.7749.39191.16 26.17地市D7.3047.1824.10132.977.8916.5013.0029.5012.94來源：，

8010030080CB100AB78。CDACD400ABAB40753，400圖表7：特殊再融資債額度不同假設(shè)下對各地市、園區(qū)債務(wù)覆蓋情況假設(shè)園區(qū)高收益?zhèn)囝~今明兩年城投債付息今年到期回售80億元園區(qū)A0.933.780.96園區(qū)B0.626.801.49園區(qū)C4.003.670.48100億元園區(qū)A1.164.731.20園區(qū)B0.788.501.86園區(qū)C5.004.590.61300億元園區(qū)A3.4914.193.61園區(qū)B2.3425.505.59園區(qū)C15.0013.771.82假設(shè)地市高收益?zhèn)囝~今明兩年城投債付息今年到期回售100億元地市A0.893.930.91地市B7.042.290.40400億元地市C0.5315.282.09地市D3.0130.9113.56來源：，（注：估值不低于6的債券為高收益?zhèn)┒?、化債工作逐步落?shí)，城投債一二級量價指標(biāo)明顯改善71、一級市場：城投債發(fā)行熱度提升，凈融資回暖潛在置換利好下機(jī)構(gòu)普遍加大下沉尺度，兼具票息與流動性的津城建短債認(rèn)購情緒火爆，816-1770278714廣西等債務(wù)壓力較重區(qū)域城投債認(rèn)購倍數(shù)相較于7月最后一周均有顯著提升。圖表8：各省城投債認(rèn)購倍數(shù)變化省份周度認(rèn)購倍數(shù)月度認(rèn)購倍數(shù)7/308/68/138/208/279/3走勢23-0723-08環(huán)比變化天津0.821.349.2426.7918.656.440.8915.1114.21吉林1.012.733.280.932.341.41貴州1.001.912.182.551.122.251.13上海1.070.604.831.082.751.002.041.04北京0.562.172.202.471.492.350.86安徽1.784.172.525.423.952.953.790.84陜西0.231.007.442.902.122.362.102.900.80重慶2.052.825.072.182.502.223.010.78河南2.113.902.882.223.881.712.122.880.76浙江2.314.182.184.892.222.442.473.120.65山東1.441.725.221.671.921.791.622.150.53湖南3.422.316.122.242.471.892.963.380.41云南0.341.000.790.901.481.070.601.000.40廣西0.312.651.461.151.951.191.480.29新疆3.582.042.453.512.272.853.010.17湖北3.053.083.118.142.062.112.792.920.13廣東1.452.111.682.780.360.301.071.170.10江蘇1.852.092.252.483.101.522.332.370.04山西1.961.861.371.641.56-0.08四川2.622.803.122.813.122.163.002.81-0.18福建1.893.093.322.071.352.572.15-0.42江西3.300.372.871.321.753.142.651.81-0.83河北5.141.851.022.163.411.86-1.55甘肅1.982.211.381.94海南1.951.95黑龍江2.202.20遼寧3.683.68內(nèi)蒙古1.322.021.67寧夏1.001.00青海西藏來源：，

top2085644624與23倍。濱海建投7月認(rèn)購倍數(shù)不足1倍，8月顯著增長至22倍。圖表9：8月認(rèn)購倍數(shù)top20城投主體省份2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-08天津市武清區(qū)國有資產(chǎn)經(jīng)營投資有限公司天津市1.001.001.001.001.1064.29 嘉善經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)開發(fā)區(qū)實(shí)業(yè)有限公司浙江省1.4846.34青島市北城市發(fā)展集團(tuán)有限公司山東省2.823.5223.55天津城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)投資集團(tuán)有限公司天津市1.001.001.021.031.091.000.6822.95天津?yàn)I海新區(qū)建設(shè)投資集團(tuán)有限公司天津市1.001.001.001.001.000.7121.89建湖縣城市建設(shè)投資集團(tuán)有限公司江蘇省1.5721.00孝感市高創(chuàng)投資有限公司湖北省2.422.1320.26泰州鑫泰集團(tuán)有限公司江蘇省1.1419.28株洲市城市建設(shè)發(fā)展集團(tuán)有限公司湖南省1.814.812.513.7115.08咸陽市城市建設(shè)投資控股集團(tuán)有限公司陜西省2.392.8914.28重慶共享工業(yè)投資有限公司重慶市1.281.683.5713.50天津經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)開發(fā)區(qū)國有資產(chǎn)經(jīng)營有限公司天津市1.011.0011.50淮北市建投控股集團(tuán)有限公司安徽省2.293.013.221.923.6711.15天津津南城市建設(shè)投資有限公司天津市1.001.009.97天津武清經(jīng)濟(jì)技術(shù)開發(fā)區(qū)有限公司天津市1.001.001.211.637.77鎮(zhèn)江新區(qū)城市建設(shè)投資有限公司江蘇省7.58蘇州高新區(qū)楓橋工業(yè)園有限公司江蘇省7.40天津軌道交通集團(tuán)有限公司天津市1.441.001.821.731.486.98天津市地下鐵道集團(tuán)有限公司天津市2.262.981.716.78成都成華舊城改造投資有限責(zé)任公司四川省6.24來源：，

88圖表10：各省城投債凈融資變化省份 周度凈融資（億元） 月度凈融資（億元）7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 23-07 23-08 環(huán)比變化同比變化江蘇 204.29 90.38 58.06 71.55 42.25 15.61 116.55 406.01 185.08 289.46湖南 -20.20 51.85 59.95 -17.90 15.66 0.44 -29.80 150.80 129.94 180.60山東 26.52 73.38 53.27 -0.85 111.58 63.49 47.36 315.69 126.96 268.33重慶云南四川天津甘肅河南廣西新疆湖北內(nèi)蒙古上海陜西遼寧黑龍江海南青海西藏寧夏河北廣東江西吉林安徽山西貴州北京福建浙江

12.1193.7518.532.473.93-22.55-3.0016.008.50-6.70-8.45-5.005.60-7.006.207.1520.0029.574.00-3.2825.50-7.4429.06

-57.907.8519.2833.2412.007.30-11.22-9.402.206.00-3.5020.5014.47-5.40-31.00-6.000.07-18.20-3.11-63.57

79.392.8141.44-9.70-17.61-8.337.702.007.00-5.00-3.0037.9036.1936.404.00-44.50-4.7021.70

26.5925.0034.7924.702.5011.6137.4423.00-5.373.001.0029.40-0.8627.507.90-5.8065.49-4.6010.00-3.8546.0423.42

63.1762.7122.5020.0047.3034.6082.9519.0038.00-7.9033.306.994.903.607.00-0.2745.00-9.05-30.47

16.3372.308.9339.977.0036.21-7.3051.805.006.40-3.0026.854.6035.004.76-6.0019.89

-74.62-14.6229.850.00-35.1125.4315.27-3.0029.68-21.10-16.50-15.950.00-5.000.005.6037.6323.30-30.50-8.5052.7015.00-16.7939.3043.31138.34

182.3134.84152.5083.9222.60121.9519.1959.60115.585.0013.0035.003.344.403.000.000.00-3.5020.1535.2189.1924.9035.76-15.68-41.76-3.3514.4843.77

110.0479.6076.6166.1662.1548.4346.0837.2533.6422.8018.5515.5510.207.813.003.000.00-3.50-5.55-13.35-20.92-32.10-42.42-48.30-49.24-54.15-70.55-196.14

80.81109.46167.1254.0722.6011.7154.3034.17100.318.00-16.6856.1019.8420.353.005.000.00-9.10-17.4811.91119.6933.40-16.94-30.68-24.97-42.65-28.83-94.57來源：，

62.33pct、1.88pct1.59pct。83.76，4.097一周，云南發(fā)行成本略降，而貴州與廣西有所提升。圖表11：各省城投債加權(quán)平均票面利率變化省份周度加權(quán)平均票面利率()月度加權(quán)平均票面利率()7/308/68/138/208/279/3走勢23-0723-08環(huán)比變化遼寧7.002.646.604.28-2.33天津6.625.736.125.303.764.096.634.76-1.88黑龍江6.905.604.416.905.31-1.59寧夏7.506.907.506.90-0.60陜西4.605.724.003.394.264.604.524.10-0.42湖南4.354.444.043.764.273.964.364.04-0.32浙江3.333.463.033.003.093.203.433.13-0.30重慶4.276.004.484.943.853.884.534.23-0.30廣西4.243.873.183.547.424.834.484.21-0.27江蘇3.673.143.223.263.233.363.493.24-0.25新疆4.582.664.173.713.583.723.783.55-0.23云南6.357.226.686.055.726.196.476.25-0.22貴州4.603.343.483.275.194.484.26-0.22湖北3.404.233.684.063.893.313.993.80-0.19江西3.325.313.883.383.684.103.973.78-0.18上海2.482.302.652.192.562.532.36-0.17福建3.663.133.933.423.142.423.423.30-0.12河南3.943.464.344.484.374.144.314.22-0.10廣東3.292.953.033.082.792.913.022.93-0.09山東4.284.064.593.984.594.824.534.46-0.07山西3.503.395.703.504.234.184.310.13北京2.553.902.993.032.923.120.20四川3.873.653.653.734.293.563.683.920.24安徽3.143.953.653.193.854.283.503.740.24河北2.754.445.875.474.085.101.02吉林4.266.753.586.214.815.831.03甘肅4.793.953.834.17海南4.034.03內(nèi)蒙古3.683.523.60來源：，

80.95，70.87pct，連續(xù)3周突破1。貴州投標(biāo)上限-票面利率增幅位居全國第二名，為0.39pct。云南城投債認(rèn)購熱情欠佳，政治局會議召開后連續(xù)4周按投標(biāo)利率上限發(fā)行。圖表12：各省城投債投標(biāo)利率上限-票面利率變化省份周度投標(biāo)上限-票面利率()月度投標(biāo)上限-票面利率()7/308/68/138/208/279/3走勢23-0723-08環(huán)比變化天津0.070.140.311.131.261.130.080.950.87貴州0.000.260.620.330.350.010.390.39吉林0.240.050.820.500.120.470.35重慶0.520.590.890.800.900.490.740.26河南0.520.640.700.851.070.450.540.750.21江西0.380.000.550.360.640.920.360.560.20安徽0.280.750.600.671.340.310.520.700.18山東0.590.400.520.530.690.570.380.530.15四川0.490.510.380.730.660.490.440.580.14北京0.000.280.500.530.340.470.12湖北0.470.710.681.240.590.570.560.680.12廣東0.260.370.540.590.000.340.300.360.06山西0.400.490.500.430.380.420.04新疆0.500.551.030.730.680.610.640.680.04江蘇0.380.270.320.440.580.330.390.410.01福建0.460.040.690.590.240.280.330.340.01云南0.000.000.000.000.220.120.040.050.01湖南1.170.330.860.720.650.770.720.70-0.02浙江0.370.480.500.410.370.450.500.44-0.06河北0.750.440.000.750.530.47-0.06廣西0.230.510.170.090.440.390.28-0.11上海0.300.000.650.040.450.360.24-0.12陜西0.000.000.800.330.460.020.620.40-0.22甘肅0.400.390.090.27海南0.320.32黑龍江1.000.501.00遼寧0.560.56內(nèi)蒙古0.220.380.30寧夏0.000.00來源：，2、二級市場：交易活躍度提升，成交收益率下行，關(guān)注云南、河南、山東等地短久期債券投資價值71422513611004066597349億元降至上周的268億元。圖表13：各省分行政級別城投債成交規(guī)模省份 省級 地市級 區(qū)縣級7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3安徽北京福建甘肅廣東廣西貴州海南河北河南黑龍江湖北湖南吉林江蘇江西遼寧內(nèi)蒙古寧夏青海山東山西陜西上海四川天津西藏新疆云南浙江重慶

1973813540122121903737924650000291124105714201241434

2158596308353802819162629001038141074628203202023

1655118122611464504724132547054039157103925900541616

325496452182423038381650390121051132784432101321313

4426910766204142405119105225010056194542036104631540

1656329217146166805027162829010074131042425101762628

11608711453016046120089111133071681010816016170960520331380

100069110243230641271115107143281571018412234150890621451380

10307131023922159143011513593751470093199252601340429401310

119077111538111491431153143124111840093180292101250221401420

118010721133821142136711012584221761128316622510850819651190

920750934929052141151471471540119450126167253301150514431150

20493301007023401133030417000018301211159045349117

134619026011014501947033221100019401238117033313111

15303809090022031440297280000191031210222065307117

17262901009023702057030025000019301118912085286156

173331014025003601551031332000024802911740033255213

142443010080234028390344262000249151310049063268176來源：，

8710pct12.349.76手率小幅提升，810。圖表14：各省城投債換手率變化省份 周度換手率 月度換手率7/30 8/6 8/13 8/20 8/27 9/3 7月 8月 環(huán)比變化天津 5.48% 8.75% 8.39% 10.24% 12.34% 9.76% 26.37% 45.29% 18.91%寧夏 3.73% 7.58% 5.25% 3.55% 11.92% 4.94% 15.48% 31.72% 16.24%內(nèi)蒙古 0.00% 0.00% 4.71% 11.49% 2.00% 0.76% 2.77% 18.41% 15.64%云南 3.81% 4.13% 5.86% 4.49% 7.92% 6.91% 14.59% 26.31% 11.72%海南 1.19% 2.23% 4.93% 2.39% 3.41% 4.56% 8.18% 16.67% 8.49%黑龍江 0.07% 0.34% 0.07% 0.44% 2.30% 4.95% 1.38% 7.95% 6.56%重慶 3.15% 2.86% 3.44% 3.60% 4.66% 3.70% 12.85% 16.75% 3.90%廣西 2.66% 2.75% 2.53% 3.40% 3.97% 2.54% 10.04% 13.92% 3.88%河南 3.51% 3.91% 4.31% 4.13% 4.70% 4.77% 16.47% 19.90% 3.42%山西 1.95% 3.45% 2.89% 3.09% 3.07% 2.82% 11.68% 14.31% 2.64%山東 3.37% 3.17% 4.02% 4.05% 4.00% 4.34% 15.39% 17.76% 2.37%貴州 1.83% 2.00% 2.19% 1.97% 3.06% 2.70% 8.88% 11.17% 2.29%北京 4.63% 4.08% 3.53% 3.28% 2.39% 3.17% 13.20% 15.16% 1.97%湖南 2.50% 2.61% 2.92% 3.29% 2.83% 2.98% 11.72% 13.60% 1.87%湖北 2.45% 2.67% 3.42% 3.42% 3.04% 3.56% 13.17% 14.94% 1.77%遼寧 0.49% 0.72% 0.24% 0.02% 0.49% 3.14% 1.03% 2.48% 1.44%江蘇 2.88% 3.11% 3.06% 3.35% 3.36% 3.23% 13.43% 14.81% 1.37%四川 2.84% 2.45% 3.08% 2.84% 2.57% 2.63% 11.78% 12.59% 0.81%陜西 4.60% 2.58% 3.04% 3.27% 5.33% 4.60% 16.65% 17.44% 0.78%福建 3.22% 2.34% 2.88% 2.62% 3.41% 3.04% 12.79% 13.53% 0.75%安徽 3.35% 2.88% 3.05% 3.36% 3.49% 2.67% 14.57% 14.41% -0.16%吉林 2.02% 2.75% 2.15% 2.65% 1.82% 2.84% 11.80% 11.43% -0.37%新疆 2.24% 2.48% 2.84% 2.74% 2.80% 2.52% 13.03% 12.13% -0.90%浙江 2.75% 2.60% 2.52% 2.37% 2.23% 2.26% 12.11% 11.00% -1.11%江西 4.06% 3.53% 3.62% 4.11% 3.85% 3.94% 18.92% 17.20% -1.72%河北 3.41% 3.74% 3.39% 2.85% 2.97% 3.82% 17.04% 14.97% -2.07%上海 2.90% 3.14% 2.15% 2.76% 2.38% 1.53% 13.15% 10.82% -2.33%廣東 3.65% 2.95% 2.84% 3.43% 3.20% 2.35% 16.68% 13.64% -3.04%甘肅 2.54% 1.90% 2.00% 1.35% 2.06% 5.08% 15.11% 11.58% -3.53%西藏 2.04% 2.36% 1.63% 0.76% 3.24% 1.81% 12.54% 8.64% -3.90%青海 7.12% 3.53% 2.22% 2.08% 2.68% 5.59% 23.51% 13.19% -10.32%來源：，

86.12，715pct。8101.76pct、3.19pct。圖表15：各省城投債高估值成交占比變化省份周度高估值成交占比月度高估值成交占比7/308/68/138/208/279/3走勢23-0723-08環(huán)比變化內(nèi)蒙古0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%11.59%0.00%-11.59%海南46.61%35.82%0.67%1.39%20.76%0.20%14.89%9.66%-5.23%云南21.29%18.93%13.98%17.06%18.25%6.12%19.22%14.66%-4.56%天津12.08%4.56%5.36%11.70%10.05%10.26%12.48%8.75%-3.74%湖北15.70%14.25%16.30%11.75%13.31%15.29%16.07%14.01%-2.07%河北20.13%12.76%20.46%21.52%30.92%22.90%23.14%21.12%-2.02%四川34.69%24.85%27.26%26.24%33.17%30.60%29.53%28.33%-1.20%陜西35.11%17.21%24.17%22.19%18.85%28.13%22.99%21.94%-1.05%新疆20.66%13.38%26.04%26.74%17.20%7.93%19.88%19.10%-0.79%廣東5.61%3.63%4.16%5.36%9.13%13.49%7.05%6.70%-0.35%湖南20.95%21.24%26.22%19.24%30.56%25.96%24.56%24.69%0.12%上海5.91%7.39%7.47%6.11%9.40%15.78%8.53%8.82%0.29%浙江19.04%16.76%16.58%14.98%21.37%23.19%17.64%18.18%0.53%江蘇12.21%13.86%14.40%14.56%11.81%12.74%12.12%13.35%1.23%貴州10.76%12.44%17.02%19.68%14.71%14.27%13.59%15.34%1.76%安徽11.74%18.96%20.20%16.43%12.36%15.46%14.71%16.69%1.98%山西11.61%11.13%16.75%17.70%11.77%12.41%11.70%13.87%2.17%山東18.82%19.59%17.67%13.96%17.75%19.85%15.20%17.53%2.32%重慶17.73%31.95%18.32%23.68%28.20%26.03%23.23%25.58%2.35%福建10.34%14.85%11.59%12.10%10.89%7.42%8.48%11.38%2.91%廣西10.97%11.53%13.45%9.37%8.96%22.89%9.43%12.62%3.19%北京16.37%11.24%19.16%26.15%18.11%13.17%14.48%18.22%3.73%青海1.24%16.32%5.47%0.00%5.76%45.64%17.33%21.86%4.53%河南18.34%16.80%18.75%22.58%27.45%24.40%17.68%22.65%4.98%江西19.37%25.46%21.68%24.72%26.01%21.66%17.81%24.36%6.56%甘肅0.24%10.37%44.39%13.86%15.68%1.79%4.81%14.04%9.22%吉林8.63%24.92%26.96%30.98%43.16%19.34%13.82%28.39%14.57%西藏3.92%15.16%48.84%15.26%58.00%43.80%18.84%44.42%25.58%寧夏20.37%21.64%12.91%58.00%57.14%70.38%5.89%43.97%38.08%黑龍江0.00%100.00%0.19%72.14%41.53%88.29%24.48%73.72%49.24%遼寧0.00%55.17%0.00%0.00%0.54%97.72%0.00%56.21%56.21%來源：，

888bp80bp、80bp75bp51028bp13bp。圖表16：各省城投債成交收益率變化周度加權(quán)平均成交收益率 月度加權(quán)平均收益率省份遼寧天津貴州甘肅云南吉林內(nèi)蒙古河北新疆安徽河南福建重慶江蘇上海浙江海南山西北京西藏廣東湖南四川湖北山東陜西江西廣西青海寧夏黑龍江

7/307.376.4711.545.509.366.454.504.08